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2020 Senate Elections


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Because it's never too early!!!  Actually, didn't really want to start this but ran cross this and wasn't a great existing place to house it.  There seems to be news on the 2020 senate races almost daily so might as well put it here to house some things.  It appears to be good map for the GOP, but not as strong as 2018.  Here's a few articles to prime folks.  May be funny to see how much will change over the next couple of years in analysis and thinking.  A protracted recession can always play huge games with the map.

Primer:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/2020-senate/?utm_term=.cfa4f9b80b36

Quote

Once again, winning the Senate looks to be a tough slog for Democrats — and that may not change anytime soon. While the House was gerrymandered by Republicans to be more favorable to them, the Senate map is also very tough for Democrats — albeit for different reasons. Democrats simply have more voters clustered in fewer states. So blue California has about 70 times as many people as red Wyoming but the same number of senators. In the 2016 election, President Trump won 30 states, while Hillary Clinton won just 20. That means 60 senators serve in Trump states, while 40 serve in Clinton states.

Interactive Map (link):

https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/

opulent-design-us-senate-map-it-s-not-to

 

Lamar Alexander announced today he won't be running in Tennessee, in somewhat of a small surprise.  He'll be 80, so.... smh that it's a surprise.  

 

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I like starting out pointing out that it is a tough map for Ds.  Everyone seemed to have been acting otherwise just a few weeks ago.  They aren't going to lose much, but it should be clear that while there are a ton of R seats up, they are almost all safe.

Ds are starting with one autoloss in AL.  Ds really need to pick up ME, AZ, CO and one more, something like AK.  Hope they hold all the ones they have other than Jones, which my guess will probably happen.

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38 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

I like starting out pointing out that it is a tough map for Ds.  Everyone seemed to have been acting otherwise just a few weeks ago.  They aren't going to lose much, but it should be clear that while there are a ton of R seats up, they are almost all safe.

Ds are starting with one autoloss in AL.  Ds really need to pick up ME, AZ, CO and one more, something like AK.  Hope they hold all the ones they have other than Jones, which my guess will probably happen.

ME, AZ, CO and NC and get the presidency. 

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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

ME, AZ, CO and NC and get the presidency. 

That's the path.

There are a couple longer shots that certainly aren't out of the question.  Iowa isn't as Republican as people think--3 of its 4 House seats are in Dem hands.  And Texas could be a swing state if Beto is on the presidential ticket and you have the right Senate candidate.

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Kansas should be open and they elected a dem as governor. This should be an open seat with the most stupid Republican in Kansas running for it.

I am also hopping Abrams runs in GA and makes it a race.

Edited by RayDog
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4 hours ago, RayDog said:

Kansas should be open and they elected a dem as governor. This should be an open seat with the most stupid Republican in Kansas running for it.

I am also hopping Abrams runs in GA and makes it a race.

Oh, shit--I forgot that it's Roberts up in Kansas.  That does change the calculus a bit, doesn't it?

Surely he retires, though.

Edited by Ghost of LL
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53 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Oh, shit--I forgot that it's Roberts up in Kansas.  That does change the calculus a bit, doesn't it?

Surely he retires, though.

I read one article that Marshall plans to run hence the stupid candidate comment. If Marshall runs it will be a winnable race for a decent dem.

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15 minutes ago, Laga4 said:

What does that mean?

Asking for a friend.

The PVI is a generic advantage. But in 2016 the average congressional race swung 10 points toward the Democrats. That tells us those 10 states could be in play plus Kansas for 11. The Democrats should do better in a presidential year than they did in the 2018 midterm.

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On 12/17/2018 at 1:21 PM, Js1 said:

ME, AZ, CO and NC and get the presidency. 

Flippability goes from ME >> AZ > NC > CO. Cory Gardner will be a heavy lift with his pro-weed message. Thom Tillis is a junior senator with a weak incumbency advantage. McSally will get a bruising in the 2020 primary and will be headed for another coin flip reelection. Collins likely retires in 2020 and that seat turns blue.

The OP is correct that everything else is a tough sell for Democrats. TN is fools gold, as is TX most likely. Joni Ernst is one of those tea partiers who benefited from a favorable environment in 2014, so she could be vulnerable against the right candidate.

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Flippability goes from ME >> AZ > NC > CO. Cory Gardner will be a heavy lift with his pro-weed message. Thom Tillis is a junior senator with a weak incumbency advantage. McSally will get a bruising in the 2020 primary and will be headed for another coin flip reelection. Collins likely retires in 2020 and that seat turns blue.
The OP is correct that everything else is a tough sell for Democrats. TN is fools gold, as is TX most likely. Joni Ernst is one of those tea partiers who benefited from a favorable environment in 2014, so she could be vulnerable against the right candidate.


A Republican is not winning CO with Trump on the ballot, pro weed incumbent or not. It isn't like the D will be Jeff Sessions. It is the most likely flip, IMO. Generally agree with you on the rest.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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8 hours ago, gmr548 said:


 

 


A Republican is not winning CO with Trump on the ballot, pro weed incumbent or not. It isn't like the D will be Jeff Sessions. It is the most likely flip, IMO. Generally agree with you on the rest.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

 

I agree with that assessment.  As things currently stand, Colorado is becoming pretty reliably Democratic and it would really surprise me to see Gardner hold that seat.  

Maine is weird--it's New England, and so people think it's going to be like Vermont.  But you get away from the southern coast and it becomes real Trumpy real fast.  Seriously--that's the upper end of the Appalachians, and it fucking feels like it.  Even so, it would surprise me to see Collins (or any other Republican) hold that seat.

Arizona--I really can't explain the decision to appoint McSally in that seat.  It really is like the GOP is trying to lose it.  She's going to get primaried, and it'll be a damned good argument to say "why would we nominate a candidate that couldn't win two years ago?".  And so are you going to get Kelli Ward out of it?  Or even if you don't--why would anybody vote for McSally in 2020 when they didn't vote for her in 2018?  What's her pitch?

North Carolina is tough for all the reasons we're seeing in NC09 now.  The NC GOP is just straight-up crooked.  Tillis shouldn't win, but he probably will owing to just straight-up corruption and fraud.

I think the Dems have a better chance in Iowa than they do in North Carolina, frankly.

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Agreed on CO regarding Gardner.  The demographics in Colorado have changed greatly over the past 15-20 years.  I think he loses if the Dems put up a viable candidate and there are plenty out there.  In the 18 elections Dems received 1.34 million votes in the House races compared to 1.08 for Republicans.  Polis, who is extremely liberal, won the Gubernatorial race 1.21 million to 1.02 million.

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The only X factor for me in 2020 is if the GOP is still  going down with President Trump's ship.  The Dems are going to present real evidence of continual malfeasance and corruption by the White House.  If the GOP going to protect trump the entire way?  It's like the way Trumps screwed the GOP with his last second shutdown tantrum.  Senators are a selfish lot, and to have to return back from their holiday break to vote for a bill that EVERYONE INCLUDING THE PRESIDENT knows will not pass, has to erode their faith in the dear leader. 

At some point the GOP is gonna have to decide to cut and run, or get completely wiped out in 2020 at the state and federal level.  The State level may be the scariest because some Dem States will act like the GOP and create maps for a decade that stack the deck in the Dems favor. Does the GOP go down with Trumps sinking ship?

I think you are gonna see the Dems work on trying to fix Obamacare, get taxes more fair for the working folks, and hopefully do something about the costs of higher education that are hurting the middle class today and stealing the future as well. The GOP? They will fight super hard to keep the tax cuts for millionaires and still crying daily for taxpayers to pay for that wall that Trump loved saying Mexico was going to pay for.  The Dems are going to make the GOP vote on their lie about supporting insurance for those with pre-existing conditions.

NOW- this is not to say the Dems cannot fuck this up.  Overreach in investigations and early histrionics being the most likely fuck up.  But you have to like the Dems position better than the GOP's.  Heck the GOP wishes it could not agree and then disagree, then agree, then vetoed then agree... then... relationship with the President of their own party to figure out what the President wants on an hourly basis. I have a feeling that by 2020 around 60% of the country is going to see the GOP as enablers colluding with a criminal President.  Unless they cut him lose via impeachment to cut their losses prior to 2020? Or maybe there is nothing at all to all the smoke and criminalty the GOP has been protecting and tacitly endorsing and I am completely wrong! 😉

Of course we may be under marshall law and not holding elections in 2020 if the current Trump curve is allowed to reach it's peak.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 12/22/2018 at 12:39 PM, JimmyJames said:

Trump never won shit and declared bankruptcy seven times before he became president. Beto losing by less than 3 points to Cruz in deep red Texas ain’t gonna matter. 

Plus, America loves a comeback story.

 Donald Trump is a perpetual comeback story himself.

He wrote a fucking book on it. (Ghost written)

220px-Trump_the_art_of_the_comeback.jpg

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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I probably shouldn't give him this idea, but if Trump really wanted to antagonize O'Rourke before 2020, he'd tweet a sign on the Oval Office that says, 

"Irish Need Not Apply"  

and if our nation was lucky, the two of them would brawl with one another to the point of...

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38 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:


She will lose.


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I'm of this opinion as well.  The Kavanaugh vote will cost her enough of the female vote.  Obviously will depend heavily on her opponent, but if it's a sound one, then she'll lose a close race.

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Now is the time to get GOP Senators running in 2020 to commit to the Shutdown on the record.    If this goes long enough, that will sting.  But I see the TSA and Courts being shut down soon a breaking point leaving the GOP Senate no  option but to pass some kind of bill to open up most of the govt. 

This will not last another two weeks.

Edited by Gatorubet
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32 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Now is the time to get GOP Senators running in 2020 to commit to the Shutdown on the record.    If this goes long enough, that will sting.  But I see the TSA and Courts being shut down soon a breaking point leaving the GOP Senate no  option but to pass some kind of bill to open up most of the govt. 

This will not last another two weeks.

This is a big Trump loyalty test for GOP senators.

 “Are you with Trump or the American people?”

Guess which way this goes? 

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On 1/6/2019 at 4:12 PM, Hugo Stiglitz said:

This is a big Trump loyalty test for GOP senators.

 “Are you with Trump or the American people?”

Guess which way this goes? 

They are rolling the dice with tax refunds, air travel being reduced or shut down, etc.   

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13 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Gardner and Collins among the few Rs saying we should reopen the government without Wall.  Looks like some folks are thinking 2020

CNN has a report showing more than a few Republicans Senators were making it known that the shutdown can’t last much longer   Saw the aired version, so there’s probably one on the website popping up later   

And some of the Senators from agricultural-heavy states knew they’d be feeling the heat   

 

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1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

CNN has a report showing more than a few Republicans Senators were making it known that the shutdown can’t last much longer   Saw the aired version, so there’s probably one on the website popping up later   

And some of the Senators from agricultural-heavy states knew they’d be feeling the heat   

 

IIRC, the 95 shutdown was resolved when the GOP senate caved like a bunch of little bitches.

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Trumps team knows that the senate won’t be able to withstand the shutdown for much longer, hence his speech last night and his visit to Texas today.   He has to gin up some public support and find ways to buy off the Dems.

personally I think he will be forced to declare a national emergency knowing full well the courts will nullify it.  He can turn that into a win by calling out the Obama judges that are making laws.   

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On 12/17/2018 at 2:26 PM, Ghost of LL said:

That's the path.

There are a couple longer shots that certainly aren't out of the question.  Iowa isn't as Republican as people think--3 of its 4 House seats are in Dem hands.  And Texas could be a swing state if Beto is on the presidential ticket and you have the right Senate candidate.

I can see a world where a recession plus McConnell hate plus Trump asshattery makes KY a long shot.  But yeah:  ME, AZ, CO, and NC, minus AL looks realistic, with IA as a longish shot. TX, TN, KY, KS, and GA are hail mary's that could become competitive with the right candidate/economic situation.

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2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I can see a world where a recession plus McConnell hate plus Trump asshattery makes KY a long shot.  But yeah:  ME, AZ, CO, and NC, minus AL looks realistic, with IA as a longish shot. TX, TN, KY, KS, and GA are hail mary's that could become competitive with the right candidate/economic situation.

ME, AZ, CO, NC + the presidency is the only path.

Still go after Iowa, Texas, Kansas and Georgia. 

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