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2018 - Elections and Trends

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Here's my man Ryan breaking down the trend changes in Georgia right now, which I'm assuming we're seeing everywhere. Still holding (and INCREASING) the percentage of non-2014 voters (it's now at 33.6%, it was around 30% last week).

 

Right now, with the last week of (generally the heaviest) EV we're at,

18-29: 7.5%

30-39:  8.9%

40-49: 14.0%

50-64: 32.4%

65+: 34.7%

Unk: 2.4%

 

After yesterday, we're sitting at almost 400k more votes cast than in all of 2014's EV. If the 33% non-2014 voter margin continues to hold after election day that will equate to an increase from about 2.6 million votes in 2014 to 3.9 million votes in 2018.

Sorry to keep spamming this thread with Georgia numbers since only a couple of us live here, but it's awesome to at least see younger people more engaged this mid-term. I assume we will smash the modern record for turnout across the country.

I enjoy it. I think both the Georgia and Florida Governor races are fascinating. I’m really hoping we win at least one. Please keep updating.

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Bozo_Casanova
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You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
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I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

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Js1

Js1 84994

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

That's what this thread is for. Keep continue. 

 

 

Not sure why the gold-standard orgs. aren't polling MO more.  We've had enough fucking TX/FL polls.  I understand ND and IN because they are hard to poll.  So choose the other closest race!

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MidTexHorn

MidTexHorn 822

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, texastough said:

Is he suggesting this might backfire by helping the D GOTV efforts, or that eventually the R base gets fatigued by it, or what?

I think he's suggesting that not even making the slightest effort to appeal to centrists, independents or god forbid the other side, may not be a winning formula long term when your base is only 40% of the voters.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15327

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, texastough said:

Is he suggesting this might backfire by helping the D GOTV efforts, or that eventually the R base gets fatigued by it, or what?

 . . . or that independents (of their various stripes) make up the largest voting bloc, and if they break heavily against the GOP because the GOP is focused solely on mobilizing its base to the exclusion of all other voters, then the GOP is fuuuuuuuucked.

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Js1

Js1 84994

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, MidTexHorn said:

Yeah, I had no idea who had done what until I read the actual article. Horrible headline writing there.

I knew bc I've followed that polling but holy fuck that was awful at first

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Js1

Js1 84994

Posted
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12 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

 . . . or that independents (of their various stripes) make up the largest voting bloc, and if they break heavily against the GOP because the GOP is focused solely on mobilizing its base to the exclusion of all other voters, then the GOP is fuuuuuuuucked.

Yup!  base strategy = independents/moderates flee

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32660

Posted
Posted

The Comstock quote lines up with my anecdotal data. My wife is a college educated suburban woman who has been apolitical for her entire adult life. She's now in a message group with about a half-dozen area friends who have been similarly apolitical but have discussed their various reasons to start voting Democrat this year and have agreed to all do so.

I think it's likely maybe 3 of them even show up to vote but we'll see. And I was sworn to secrecy after my wife left the conversation up on the computer because apparently a couple of the women don't want their husbands to have any clue about the discussions even happening. I thought that was crazy but didn't take much to convince me to stay quiet. I don't talk about politics or religion with anyone around here as most of them would understand classical liberalism even less than voting Democrat.

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27588

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

yeesh.  that is some pronoun abuse in the headline.

 

20 minutes ago, MidTexHorn said:

Yeah, I had no idea who had done what until I read the actual article. Horrible headline writing there.

 

16 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

heh.  they pulled it and rewrote the headline.

 

 

 

 

Good,  because I thought that she was losing and they were going to triage the campaign when I first read it too.

Shitty headline was shitty. 

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G650

G650 13843

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

The Comstock quote lines up with my anecdotal data. My wife is a college educated suburban woman who has been apolitical for her entire adult life. She's now in a message group with about a half-dozen area friends who have been similarly apolitical but have discussed their various reasons to start voting Democrat this year and have agreed to all do so.

I think it's likely maybe 3 of them even show up to vote but we'll see. And I was sworn to secrecy after my wife left the conversation up on the computer because apparently a couple of the women don't want their husbands to have any clue about the discussions even happening. I thought that was crazy but didn't take much to convince me to stay quiet. I don't talk about politics or religion with anyone around here as most of them would understand classical liberalism even less than voting Democrat.

 

You mean you guys don't hangout and debate Locke's Second Treatise on Saturday nights?

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32660

Posted
Posted
Just now, G650 said:

 

You mean you guys don't hangout and debate Locke's Second Treatise on Saturday nights?

You'd be surprised that every few weeks someone tries to start a conversation like that. Fortunately most of the husbands are on my side in terms of not talking about it so we ignore the two guys who try to start those conversations, or we all happen to get up to get another beer right at that moment.

During election season I just don't hang out with the group for a month or two. Problem solved.

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MidTexHorn

MidTexHorn 822

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

The Comstock quote lines up with my anecdotal data. My wife is a college educated suburban woman who has been apolitical for her entire adult life. She's now in a message group with about a half-dozen area friends who have been similarly apolitical but have discussed their various reasons to start voting Democrat this year and have agreed to all do so.

I think it's likely maybe 3 of them even show up to vote but we'll see. And I was sworn to secrecy after my wife left the conversation up on the computer because apparently a couple of the women don't want their husbands to have any clue about the discussions even happening. I thought that was crazy but didn't take much to convince me to stay quiet. I don't talk about politics or religion with anyone around here as most of them would understand classical liberalism even less than voting Democrat.

My previously apolitical wife sounds similar to your wife, although to my knowledge she has no such group of friends. It's just kinda weirdly awesome that every time she sees a Democratic ad on TV she gets this weird look in her eye and says kinda quitely "just you wait." She was going to vote for Beto in this election and probably for other Dems for the first time in her life, but the Kavanaugh hearings absolutely set something off in her like I've never seen. She now HAAAATES Republicans.

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G650

G650 13843

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, MidTexHorn said:

My previously apolitical wife sounds similar to your wife, although to my knowledge she has no such group of friends. It's just kinda weirdly awesome that every time she sees a Democratic ad on TV she gets this weird look in her eye and says kinda quitely "just you wait." She was going to vote for Beto in this election and probably for other Dems for the first time in her life, but the Kavanaugh hearings absolutely set something off in her like I've never seen. She now HAAAATES Republicans.

 

I mean, to be honest, I feel really weird about this election myself. Iv'e never voted for all Democrats before in my life. This is going to be a surreal experience.

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MidTexHorn

MidTexHorn 822

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, G650 said:

 

I mean, to be honest, I feel really weird about this election myself. Iv'e never voted for all Democrats before in my life. This is going to be a surreal experience.

Me too, but it was a lot easier than I thought. The last two years made it real real easy.

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texastough

texastough 1128

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, MidTexHorn said:

Me too, but it was a lot easier than I thought. The last two years made it real real easy.

Exactly this. My first D vote ever -- and because of Trump/Cruz and the rest of the current shitbird R's, it was the first vote I've ever really been excited about

 

Edit -- forgot I voted for Obama too, but sort of held my nose at the time

Edited by texastough
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Js1

Js1 84994

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Internals must paint a bad picture.....

 

V good chance Democrats sweep the entire Midwest governor races and their associated Senate races:

Whitmer (MI) - Stabenow (inc)

Cordray (OH)

Wolf (PA) - Casey Jr. (inc)

Evers (WI) - Baldwin (inc)

Hubbell (IA)

Walz (MN) - Smith (inc) and Klobuchar (inc)

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

V good chance Democrats sweep the entire Midwest governor races and their associated Senate races:

Whitmer (MI) - Stabenow (inc)

Cordray (OH)

Wolf (PA) - Casey Jr. (inc)

Evers (WI) - Baldwin (inc)

Hubbell (IA)

Walz (MN) - Smith (inc) and Klobuchar (inc)

I agree with you on everything except Ohio.  I think Ohio has a ton of split ticket voters this year who support the democratic senator and vote Dewine for governor. 

Everything else is looking good up there tho. I really want to see Scott “pond scum” Walker lose. Getting Ohio would be huge because it’s a very important state in presidential races. Getting Iowa would be fun because if chuck grassley croaks, we could appoint a democratic senator in his place. 

Edited by Voldemort86
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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15327

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I had a generally conservative relative tell me that he left the Senate race blank.  He doesn't like Beto but can't stand Cruz.  Otherwise it was a straight GOP ticket as usual.  

 

There is a woman in my office whose husband is very high in Texas GOP circles, and she reports the same phenomenon with a lot of people she knows.  That may be just people high up in the party, and isn't reflective of the voting populace as a whole.  But it's interesting to hear it now from a couple sources. 

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Js1

Js1 84994

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I agree with you on everything except Ohio.  I think Ohio has a ton of split ticket voters this year who support the democratic senator and vote Dewine for governor. 

Everything else is looking good up there tho. I really want to see Scott “pond scum” Walker lose. Getting Ohio would be huge because it’s a very important state in presidential races. Getting Iowa would be fun because if chuck grassley croaks, we could appoint a democratic senator in his place. 

 

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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8397

Posted
Posted
On 10/29/2018 at 12:25 PM, Voldemort86 said:

Supposedly there’s conflicting information out of Florida. 

Gillum and Nelson have been ahead in pretty much all the polls lately, but repubs are giddy about the early vote numbers so far. The only viable explanation is that the Dems must be winning independents by a big margin or the polls are way off for some reason.

Gillum is getting some bad press too.  

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