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Posted
1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I can't imagine most people are buying cars unless they have no choice.

I think you underestimate how catastrophically stupid most people are when it comes to money, cars, and debt.

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Posted
15 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

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I guess some credit is deserved. This is the closest you've ever come to making a substantive response when shown IDENTICAL conduct by the party you unwaveringly support

Posted

Listening to an economics webinar hosted by UCLA, a few key take-aways

  1. hiring is down
  2. capex is on hold because of uncertainty
  3. inventory levels down before Christmas season
  4. 77% of companies have passed on tariffs to consumers
  5. domestically produced items are raising prices even if they aren't directly affected by tariffs

 

The word UNCERTAINTY over tariffs, interest rates, policy comes up over and over again.

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Posted

Should have mentioned, the webinar is more focused on small and mid-sized businesses.

Summary from the panelists:

  1. Shocks from policies - tariffs, immigration
  2. Concern and apprehension because policies keep changing, however, policy "pauses" have allowed small businesses to navigate
  3. Fewer regulations is helping businesses
  4. Job growth is significantly lower
  5. Recession is imminent, or already underway
  6. Slight disagreement by panelists on tariffs...
    1. 60% of tariffs is passed to consumers
    2. 20% of tariffs is absorbed by companies
    3. 15% of tariffs is absorbed by foreign manufacturers
  7. Inflation according to government sources is 2.6%
  8. Inflation forecasted to be 3.3% by 2026 Q1.
  9. Construction has jobs that aren't being filled (really?)
  10. Small business owners are being affected most by tariffs because cash flow doesn't allow for stocking up of inventory
  11. Surprisingly small business are mostly optimistic - small business owners are generally optimistic (or else they wouldn't open their own business)
  12. Small businesses have seen worse during 2008 financial crisis and covid.
Posted
4 minutes ago, Superhero said:

Recession is imminent, or already underway

Talking head on CNBC was saying this AM that the US has been in a "rolling recession" for the last few years and that we are headed out of the rolling recessions into another bull market.  Who knows.

A lot of the bullets you have listed sync with my personal experience.   Pretty much been total chaos this year...will the tariffs really start to bite?  who knows.

Posted

Most recent podcast from Mark Zandi at Moodys went through they numbers of how it’s the top 20% of earners doing all the spending. Bottom 80% are negative. His group thinks the overall economy will muddle through, meaning low to no growth for a while but not “official” recession. But they also think the bottom 80% of earners are living a very real recession all the way. K shaped economy they call it. 

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Posted
14 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Most recent podcast from Mark Zandi at Moodys went through they numbers of how it’s the top 20% of earners doing all the spending. Bottom 80% are negative. His group thinks the overall economy will muddle through, meaning low to no growth for a while but not “official” recession. But they also think the bottom 80% of earners are living a very real recession all the way. K shaped economy they call it. 

K shaped seems 100% accurate. living in two worlds side by side in more than just political ways, also economic ways. politics aside, it's a powder keg imo.

Posted
44 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

K shaped seems 100% accurate. living in two worlds side by side in more than just political ways, also economic ways. politics aside, it's a powder keg imo.

We have a greater degree of wealth inequality right now in the US than the French did when they broke out the guillotines, so yeah I'd agree it's a bit of a powder keg situation.

What's wild is that around 75% of corporate profits have been funneled into stock buybacks (source) which I believe is STRONGLY motivating the K-shaped recession. After the 2017 TCJA that only worsened. There's money for the poors, it just hasn't seemed to trickle down yet 🤔

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