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Posted

fredgraph.png?g=1KQAE&height=490   

 

Median sales price of a home nearly TRIPLED in the 70's.  Never would have guessed that.  roughly 24K to 64K.   Although those numbers seem laughably small now.  I assume that is the inflation of that decade effects.

 

Posted
34 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

The federal income tax is currently extremely progressive.  Are you referring to other taxes? 

once you hit the kind of income and wealth that I mentioned it's the exact opposite and it's extremely regressive. employment taxes are regressive as well taxing only the first $175,000. I agree at the very, very bottom it's progressive, but it isn't for the middle 50% compared to the benefits at the very tip top.

Posted
9 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

once you hit the kind of income and wealth that I mentioned it's the exact opposite and it's extremely regressive.

Taxes on wealth and taxes on income are pretty distinct topics.

As I stated I think there should be higher rates on higher income levels.  My preference would be the brackets are shifted up, provide relief to middle, and marginally increase top rates at very top with additional brackets as well.

Social Security payroll taxes are regressive, although that is increased every year.  Medicare payroll is a progressive tax with additional above 200K.

 

Posted
35 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Taxes on wealth and taxes on income are pretty distinct topics.

As I stated I think there should be higher rates on higher income levels.  My preference would be the brackets are shifted up, provide relief to middle, and marginally increase top rates at very top with additional brackets as well.

Social Security payroll taxes are regressive, although that is increased every year.  Medicare payroll is a progressive tax with additional above 200K.

 

I wasn't raising the wealth tax issue. although I could see taxable debt as a thing.

Posted
35 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Taxes on wealth and taxes on income are pretty distinct topics.

As I stated I think there should be higher rates on higher income levels.  My preference would be the brackets are shifted up, provide relief to middle, and marginally increase top rates at very top with additional brackets as well.

Social Security payroll taxes are regressive, although that is increased every year.  Medicare payroll is a progressive tax with additional above 200K.

The reality is that the wealthiest people have NO income. Jeff fuckin Bezos qualified for childcare assistance credits because his income was so low. Their value is all in stocks that have grown, which they can liquidate tax-free through taking loans against the paper value. And then when they can goose the stock up they renegotiate their loans and keep the debt cycle going.

Alllllll tax-free, of course. 

Posted
42 minutes ago, Captainant said:

which they can liquidate tax-free through taking loans against the paper value

Its a market distortion brought on by ZIRP.  All debt has risk, leveraging your individual stock holdings isn't some new phenomenon.  Quite easy to get your face ripped off with a stock move in the wrong direction.   

Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Its a market distortion brought on by ZIRP.  All debt has risk, leveraging your individual stock holdings isn't some new phenomenon.  Quite easy to get your face ripped off with a stock move in the wrong direction.   

not when you borrow $25B on $500B in stock value. we can all get our faces ripped off at 50-75% LTV on a stock portfolio for sure.

It's very hard to fathom how easy it with the leverage of extreme wealth. it's almost incomprehensible. 

Edited by scramblyn
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Posted
2 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

not when you borrow $25B on $500B in stock value. we can all get our faces ripped off at 50-75% LTV on a stock portfolio for sure.

It's very hard to fathom how easy it with the leverage of extreme wealth. it's almost incomprehensible. 

Jeff Bezos borrows 25B in November of 2021.  Amazon stock price $183.

Whats the status of Jeff Bezos face in Dec of 2022. Amazon stock price $84.00?

 

His 500B just took a topline haircut of 250B and his loan collateral is underwater 12B.  I'm sure the lender is going to demand more collateral.  Oh by the way rates are going to jump 5% in the next 12 months.

 

 

So again what is easy about that?

 

 

Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Jeff Bezos borrows 25B in November of 2021.  Amazon stock price $183.

Whats the status of Jeff Bezos face in Dec of 2022. Amazon stock price $84.00?

 

His 500B just took a topline haircut of 250B and his loan collateral is underwater 12B.  I'm sure the lender is going to demand more collateral.  Oh by the way rates are going to jump 5% in the next 12 months.

 

 

So again what is easy about that?

 

 

hardly doubt the lender makes him sell much of his stock. your math was 5% LTV and now it's 10% LTV, no issue.

Edited by scramblyn
Posted
3 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

hardly doubt the lender makes him sell much of his stock. your math was 5% LTV and now it's 10% LTV, no issue.

He's not pledging 100% of his stock to borrow 5% of it.  Unless he is a complete fucking moron.

 

Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Incredulity said:

He's not pledging 100% of his stock to borrow 5% of it.  Unless he is a complete fucking moron.

 

then he pledges more and doesn't sell. or he sells voluntarily because he chose to. the guy isn't getting backed into a corner on his personal liquidity.

Edited by scramblyn
Posted
5 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

the guy isn't getting backed into a corner on his personal liquidity.

that all depends on the price of the stock he has borrowed against and what rate he borrowed at.   Companies go bankrupt all the time.  As in 2022, gigantic mega companies stocks get cut in half in short order.  NO ONE in December of 2022 knew that Amazon stock would be where it is today.  If he and the lenders didn't have some sleepless nights in Dec of 2022, god bless.

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

that all depends on the price of the stock he has borrowed against and what rate he borrowed at.   Companies go bankrupt all the time.  As in 2022, gigantic mega companies stocks get cut in half in short order.  NO ONE in December of 2022 knew that Amazon stock would be where it is today.  If he and the lenders didn't have some sleepless nights in Dec of 2022, god bless.

your example he borrowed 5% and then he shifted to 10% of his total holdings. sure bankruptcy, but come on... walmart, amazon, apple, microsoft... that's black swan shit.  the only way you get fucked on pledging stock as a billionnaire is you don't. yeah he might sell out of choice or he might pledge more for the bank's requirements, but he's not getting bent over for lifestyle borrowings and worse case he sells $25B of stock and pays if off. he still has 90% of his wealth even if it was cut in half.

even then when the company turns around, buy back more stock to further increase your wealth back to where it was. rinse and repeat.

you and I lose our shirts pledging brokerage accounts, billionaires do not.

Edited by scramblyn
Posted
18 hours ago, scramblyn said:

then you have to do what every other civilized country does and provide health care for all.

Peel back the layers of the onion on some of these healthcare programs and you’ll find they still don’t provide coverage for major, wealth threatening illnesses.

“A World Health Organization (WHO) survey found that only 39% of countries included the minimum package for effective cancer management in their public HBPs.”

For example, here in Singapore, they have a “wonderful” healthcare coverage for basics needs, but anything beyond that requires supplemental insurance. The lower income people cannot afford it. You know, the ones who truly need it. Yet, most outsiders talk about how great the universal healthcare in SG is. It’s common knowledge here that most of the population is fucked if they get very ill.

It wouldn’t surprise me to find many other countries are similar.

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Posted

To be clear, I’m definitely not arguing that the US doesn’t need a major shift in that direction, but coverage for major events in many countries with UHC isn’t as universal as many want to believe. The high cancer rate, and just terrible overall health of US citizens, makes it a particularly daunting task.

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Posted
On 9/29/2025 at 6:46 AM, Hefeweizen said:

Yeah I think everyone thinks about food and gas but shelter is completely off the rails when it’s approaching 50 percent of income in some places.  I think Vegas is a sub market like this and if there were a way to short a housing market that would be the one I would do right now.

In vegas you have a problem with a bunch of the property being bought up by investors as well. I suppose the play to short it would be to identify the REITs with high volume in a place like vegas and then short the REIT. 

Posted
19 hours ago, scramblyn said:

your example he borrowed 5% and then he shifted to 10% of his total holdings. sure bankruptcy, but come on... walmart, amazon, apple, microsoft... that's black swan shit.  the only way you get fucked on pledging stock as a billionnaire is you don't. yeah he might sell out of choice or he might pledge more for the bank's requirements, but he's not getting bent over for lifestyle borrowings and worse case he sells $25B of stock and pays if off. he still has 90% of his wealth even if it was cut in half.

First, it was your example.  
 

point is, if the stock gets hit while he has a loan against it the math gets all fucked up and it makes ZERO economic sense to have taken the loan versus having paid the cap gains tax.  Which by the way he is doing in your scenario.  So again NO it isn’t easy peasy no care stuff, even for billionaires.

 

And for the record I could give a shit if he gets scalped or not.  As I have stated above there should be higher top end brackets.  I’m open to that for cap gains. Unfortunately when policies like that get proposed and implemented they are implemented at levels that are minuscule to the level of billionaires.  
 

175 k income isn’t getting anyone generational wealth 

the40% estate tax12 million exemption is a crime for someone who has been fortunate enough to build wealth to a level where they stand a chance to build generational wealth. 100 million if a fuck load of money.  If the majority of it is in a private business or farm all the estate tax accomplishes is the forced sale of those assets to a larger corporation and consolodates wealth even more.

 

 

Posted
1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

First, it was your example.  
 

point is, if the stock gets hit while he has a loan against it the math gets all fucked up and it makes ZERO economic sense to have taken the loan versus having paid the cap gains tax.  Which by the way he is doing in your scenario.  So again NO it isn’t easy peasy no care stuff, even for billionaires.

 

And for the record I could give a shit if he gets scalped or not.  As I have stated above there should be higher top end brackets.  I’m open to that for cap gains. Unfortunately when policies like that get proposed and implemented they are implemented at levels that are minuscule to the level of billionaires.  
 

175 k income isn’t getting anyone generational wealth 

the40% estate tax12 million exemption is a crime for someone who has been fortunate enough to build wealth to a level where they stand a chance to build generational wealth. 100 million if a fuck load of money.  If the majority of it is in a private business or farm all the estate tax accomplishes is the forced sale of those assets to a larger corporation and consolodates wealth even more.

 

 

you're just completely wrong about billionaires and finance.

never said 175K would build jack shit.

estate tax reform is totally needed.

don't care to continue talking about this.

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