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Posted

So, I don't think that I've discussed my tough listing.  An absolutely beautiful cul-de-sac house, in a great school district.  Overpriced at $1,150,000, but the seller insisted.  

This house is really nice.  Upgraded throughout, done VERY tastefully.  It's a gem. Great school district.   But it's one of the few in this town (San Marcos, CA) with no HOA, and the neighbor next door has a front yard that looks like Fred Sanford lives there.  We've got a jet ski on a trailer...completely brown from the sun, and both tires have rotted off the trailer.  We've got an old elliptical machine.  We've got a harbor freight trailer that's parked sideways.  We've got a suburb outback (with tags that expired in 2022) parked on the lawn.  

I do an open house there, and several cars pull in to the street, see the neighbor house, and speed up to leave.  You're thinking that it's a rental, or that the owners are in foreclosure or something?  No, they bought it new 33 years ago, paid off the mortgage, and own free-and-clear.  The house has gone downhill since the day they got the keys.  Never painted, landscaping is dirt and weeds, just a total shitshow.  

So, I complained to code enforcement.  The city actually came out (with much prodding from me) and now the driveway is clear except for the car that used to be on the lawn.  The owners seem to be a bit embarrassed for letting it go so far, because they told my seller that they are getting bids for exterior paint. 

I'm doing a price reduction tomorrow, from 1.15 to 1.11.  I'd much prefer to get lower, but it is what it is. 

My MLS has a "Hot sheet" which shows anything new in a given period, including price reductions. There's a column for comments for hotsheet listings.   So, I'm working on how to craft a comment like "shithole next door has been cleaned up".

 

Posted
21 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

 

I do an open house there, and several cars pull in to the street, see the neighbor house, and speed up to leave.  You're thinking that it's a rental, or that the owners are in foreclosure or something?  No, they bought it new 33 years ago, paid off the mortgage, and own free-and-clear.

My thoughts was always, “Fuckin’ Prop 13, man”. 

Posted
34 minutes ago, We’reTexas said:

My thoughts was always, “Fuckin’ Prop 13, man”. 

Here's the thing:  we now have Prop 19, which stall makes it advantageous for people like this to move.    

Here's how it works:  They bought decades ago, so because of prop 13, their tax base is based on that original sales price.  Now, for shits and giggles, let's assume that they sell.  They could probably get $700,000 or so.   They can now buy up to that hypothetical $700,000, and keep the same  tax bill.  If they buy for a hypothetical $900,000, they would keep the same property tax bill for the first $700,000, and pay the full tax rate (1.25%) on the additional $200,000.  

Posted
3 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

Here's the thing:  we now have Prop 19, which stall makes it advantageous for people like this to move.    

Here's how it works:  They bought decades ago, so because of prop 13, their tax base is based on that original sales price.  Now, for shits and giggles, let's assume that they sell.  They could probably get $700,000 or so.   They can now buy up to that hypothetical $700,000, and keep the same  tax bill.  If they buy for a hypothetical $900,000, they would keep the same property tax bill for the first $700,000, and pay the full tax rate (1.25%) on the additional $200,000.  

Oh I’m aware, but I’m not sure many olds do (or can even afford to downsize even with Prop 19). 

Posted
1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Stop me if you’ve heard this before…

jobs report from last 2 months revised downward 228k. 
BROKEN

8:44 a.m. ET

July Jobs Report

Early Friday, the Labor Department said the U.S. economy added 73,000 jobs in July, missing Econoday estimates for an increase of 110,000. The jobless rate rose to 4.2%, meeting estimates.

Meanwhile, May's jobs numbers were revised down by 125,000, from an increase of 144,000 to 19,000. And June's numbers were revised down by 133,000, from a gain of 147,000 to 14,000.

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Stop me if you’ve heard this before…

jobs report from last 2 months revised downward 228k. 
BROKEN

#teamstagflation

But the 35% tariff on Canada should help those northern U.S. border states recover.

  • Rage+1 1
Posted
45 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

10 year down .10 already so I'm good with it 

Sadly, I think this is a watch what you wish for kind of thing.  Rates can be zero, but if nobody has a job, residential mortgage business can't be good.  can it?

Posted
34 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Sadly, I think this is a watch what you wish for kind of thing.  Rates can be zero, but if nobody has a job, residential mortgage business can't be good.  can it?

Hopefully enough of you can keep them. I know a bunch of you guys want to access equity and HELOC and closed end 2nds are fine but still a decently high rate. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
5 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

#teamstagflation

But the 35% tariff on Canada should help those northern U.S. border states recover.

I don’t think that’s what’s going on. Look at the native born American numbers and the foreign numbers over the last 5 years and they are incredibly different. I think this is immigration related. I’m not swearing to that it’s my suspicion though. Lessening a population is never conducive to making GDP go up. Or filling more jobs. Doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea, just it’s going to have certain downstream effects and I’d think total job population would be one of them. 
 

At any rate, that wasn’t my point in the post you replied to (I think you know that) it was rather to point out that’s impossible to conceive of the BLS being partisan hacks anymore (that was one option on the table) we instead have to go with fucking incompetent. 
fix the damn model assholes. 

Posted
4 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Sadly, I think this is a watch what you wish for kind of thing.  Rates can be zero, but if nobody has a job, residential mortgage business can't be good.  can it?

Jobs are fine. 4.2 isn’t going to cause any problems. 5% is considered everyone employed but the lame, lazy and halt 

interest rates are more determinative than jobs in the sector (for now). That can flip obviously but we are nowhere near that territory. 

Posted
13 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don’t think that’s what’s going on. Look at the native born American numbers and the foreign numbers over the last 5 years and they are incredibly different. I think this is immigration related. I’m not swearing to that it’s my suspicion though. Lessening a population is never conducive to making GDP go up. Or filling more jobs. Doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea, just it’s going to have certain downstream effects and I’d think total job population would be one of them. 
 

At any rate, that wasn’t my point in the post you replied to (I think you know that) it was rather to point out that’s impossible to conceive of the BLS being partisan hacks anymore (that was one option on the table) we instead have to go with fucking incompetent. 
fix the damn model assholes. 

Image

Image

Posted
57 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Wulaw can rejoice. Trump just fired the BLS commissioner. 

GxSUJLcXoAApyaH?format=jpg&name=900x900

 

So, he’s got this wrong I’m pretty sure. They are still revising his jobs numbers down the next couple months. If you are in power that’s how you went it to play out. Everyone only looks at the headline and doesn’t pay attention to the revisions. He got a months worth of good headlines that apparently weren’t deserved as it related to jobs. 

I’ve settled above on rank incompetence. He is pining it on partisanship but he’s getting the same breaks he’s bitching about Biden getting. 
all that said if we’d have gotten the jobs numbers right for the last 18 months the Fed would be 100 basis points lower and mortgage rates would be as well. 
 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
1 hour ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Image

Image

Are those colors right?  Am I looking at it wrong?  Do we really have tons more foreign born workers in our workforce than native?  
the upside down middle finger in government employees exerts a downward pressure on rates. 

Posted

 

Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

So, he’s got this wrong I’m pretty sure.

Michael Jordan Lol GIF
 

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

all that said if we’d have gotten the jobs numbers right for the last 18 months the Fed would be 100 basis points lower and mortgage rates would be as well. 

Michael Jordan Lol GIF by ESPN

Posted
Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

Michael Jordan Lol GIF
 

Michael Jordan Lol GIF by ESPN

Go look at the MBS charts and the bonds and what happens everytime jobs “outperforms”. It’s a run away in a bad way. 
the only reason Fed didn’t cut this time around was because they liked where the job situation was. What they liked was a mirage. 

Posted
10 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

There's no such thing as "getting it right" when it comes to the initial survey releases. Never really has been.

670dfb85db60f120dedfbf237cc7c3d28dad55c0

Gettingnit right means missing both ways. The fact that it’s always revised downward means it’s broken. If you are missing randomly revisions should be up and down. Not always down. 

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