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Posted

So, I don't think that I've discussed my tough listing.  An absolutely beautiful cul-de-sac house, in a great school district.  Overpriced at $1,150,000, but the seller insisted.  

This house is really nice.  Upgraded throughout, done VERY tastefully.  It's a gem. Great school district.   But it's one of the few in this town (San Marcos, CA) with no HOA, and the neighbor next door has a front yard that looks like Fred Sanford lives there.  We've got a jet ski on a trailer...completely brown from the sun, and both tires have rotted off the trailer.  We've got an old elliptical machine.  We've got a harbor freight trailer that's parked sideways.  We've got a suburb outback (with tags that expired in 2022) parked on the lawn.  

I do an open house there, and several cars pull in to the street, see the neighbor house, and speed up to leave.  You're thinking that it's a rental, or that the owners are in foreclosure or something?  No, they bought it new 33 years ago, paid off the mortgage, and own free-and-clear.  The house has gone downhill since the day they got the keys.  Never painted, landscaping is dirt and weeds, just a total shitshow.  

So, I complained to code enforcement.  The city actually came out (with much prodding from me) and now the driveway is clear except for the car that used to be on the lawn.  The owners seem to be a bit embarrassed for letting it go so far, because they told my seller that they are getting bids for exterior paint. 

I'm doing a price reduction tomorrow, from 1.15 to 1.11.  I'd much prefer to get lower, but it is what it is. 

My MLS has a "Hot sheet" which shows anything new in a given period, including price reductions. There's a column for comments for hotsheet listings.   So, I'm working on how to craft a comment like "shithole next door has been cleaned up".

 

Posted
21 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

 

I do an open house there, and several cars pull in to the street, see the neighbor house, and speed up to leave.  You're thinking that it's a rental, or that the owners are in foreclosure or something?  No, they bought it new 33 years ago, paid off the mortgage, and own free-and-clear.

My thoughts was always, “Fuckin’ Prop 13, man”. 

Posted
34 minutes ago, We’reTexas said:

My thoughts was always, “Fuckin’ Prop 13, man”. 

Here's the thing:  we now have Prop 19, which stall makes it advantageous for people like this to move.    

Here's how it works:  They bought decades ago, so because of prop 13, their tax base is based on that original sales price.  Now, for shits and giggles, let's assume that they sell.  They could probably get $700,000 or so.   They can now buy up to that hypothetical $700,000, and keep the same  tax bill.  If they buy for a hypothetical $900,000, they would keep the same property tax bill for the first $700,000, and pay the full tax rate (1.25%) on the additional $200,000.  

Posted
3 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

Here's the thing:  we now have Prop 19, which stall makes it advantageous for people like this to move.    

Here's how it works:  They bought decades ago, so because of prop 13, their tax base is based on that original sales price.  Now, for shits and giggles, let's assume that they sell.  They could probably get $700,000 or so.   They can now buy up to that hypothetical $700,000, and keep the same  tax bill.  If they buy for a hypothetical $900,000, they would keep the same property tax bill for the first $700,000, and pay the full tax rate (1.25%) on the additional $200,000.  

Oh I’m aware, but I’m not sure many olds do (or can even afford to downsize even with Prop 19). 

Posted
1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Stop me if you’ve heard this before…

jobs report from last 2 months revised downward 228k. 
BROKEN

8:44 a.m. ET

July Jobs Report

Early Friday, the Labor Department said the U.S. economy added 73,000 jobs in July, missing Econoday estimates for an increase of 110,000. The jobless rate rose to 4.2%, meeting estimates.

Meanwhile, May's jobs numbers were revised down by 125,000, from an increase of 144,000 to 19,000. And June's numbers were revised down by 133,000, from a gain of 147,000 to 14,000.

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Stop me if you’ve heard this before…

jobs report from last 2 months revised downward 228k. 
BROKEN

#teamstagflation

But the 35% tariff on Canada should help those northern U.S. border states recover.

  • Rage+1 1
Posted
45 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

10 year down .10 already so I'm good with it 

Sadly, I think this is a watch what you wish for kind of thing.  Rates can be zero, but if nobody has a job, residential mortgage business can't be good.  can it?

Posted
34 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Sadly, I think this is a watch what you wish for kind of thing.  Rates can be zero, but if nobody has a job, residential mortgage business can't be good.  can it?

Hopefully enough of you can keep them. I know a bunch of you guys want to access equity and HELOC and closed end 2nds are fine but still a decently high rate. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
5 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

#teamstagflation

But the 35% tariff on Canada should help those northern U.S. border states recover.

I don’t think that’s what’s going on. Look at the native born American numbers and the foreign numbers over the last 5 years and they are incredibly different. I think this is immigration related. I’m not swearing to that it’s my suspicion though. Lessening a population is never conducive to making GDP go up. Or filling more jobs. Doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea, just it’s going to have certain downstream effects and I’d think total job population would be one of them. 
 

At any rate, that wasn’t my point in the post you replied to (I think you know that) it was rather to point out that’s impossible to conceive of the BLS being partisan hacks anymore (that was one option on the table) we instead have to go with fucking incompetent. 
fix the damn model assholes. 

Posted
4 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Sadly, I think this is a watch what you wish for kind of thing.  Rates can be zero, but if nobody has a job, residential mortgage business can't be good.  can it?

Jobs are fine. 4.2 isn’t going to cause any problems. 5% is considered everyone employed but the lame, lazy and halt 

interest rates are more determinative than jobs in the sector (for now). That can flip obviously but we are nowhere near that territory. 

Posted
13 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don’t think that’s what’s going on. Look at the native born American numbers and the foreign numbers over the last 5 years and they are incredibly different. I think this is immigration related. I’m not swearing to that it’s my suspicion though. Lessening a population is never conducive to making GDP go up. Or filling more jobs. Doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea, just it’s going to have certain downstream effects and I’d think total job population would be one of them. 
 

At any rate, that wasn’t my point in the post you replied to (I think you know that) it was rather to point out that’s impossible to conceive of the BLS being partisan hacks anymore (that was one option on the table) we instead have to go with fucking incompetent. 
fix the damn model assholes. 

Image

Image

Posted
57 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Wulaw can rejoice. Trump just fired the BLS commissioner. 

GxSUJLcXoAApyaH?format=jpg&name=900x900

 

So, he’s got this wrong I’m pretty sure. They are still revising his jobs numbers down the next couple months. If you are in power that’s how you went it to play out. Everyone only looks at the headline and doesn’t pay attention to the revisions. He got a months worth of good headlines that apparently weren’t deserved as it related to jobs. 

I’ve settled above on rank incompetence. He is pining it on partisanship but he’s getting the same breaks he’s bitching about Biden getting. 
all that said if we’d have gotten the jobs numbers right for the last 18 months the Fed would be 100 basis points lower and mortgage rates would be as well. 
 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
1 hour ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Image

Image

Are those colors right?  Am I looking at it wrong?  Do we really have tons more foreign born workers in our workforce than native?  
the upside down middle finger in government employees exerts a downward pressure on rates. 

Posted

 

Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

So, he’s got this wrong I’m pretty sure.

Michael Jordan Lol GIF
 

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

all that said if we’d have gotten the jobs numbers right for the last 18 months the Fed would be 100 basis points lower and mortgage rates would be as well. 

Michael Jordan Lol GIF by ESPN

  • Haha 1
Posted
Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

Michael Jordan Lol GIF
 

Michael Jordan Lol GIF by ESPN

Go look at the MBS charts and the bonds and what happens everytime jobs “outperforms”. It’s a run away in a bad way. 
the only reason Fed didn’t cut this time around was because they liked where the job situation was. What they liked was a mirage. 

Posted
10 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

There's no such thing as "getting it right" when it comes to the initial survey releases. Never really has been.

670dfb85db60f120dedfbf237cc7c3d28dad55c0

Gettingnit right means missing both ways. The fact that it’s always revised downward means it’s broken. If you are missing randomly revisions should be up and down. Not always down. 

Posted
8 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Stop me if you’ve heard this before…

jobs report from last 2 months revised downward 228k. 
BROKEN

 

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don’t think that’s what’s going on. Look at the native born American numbers and the foreign numbers over the last 5 years and they are incredibly different. I think this is immigration related. I’m not swearing to that it’s my suspicion though. Lessening a population is never conducive to making GDP go up. Or filling more jobs. Doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea, just it’s going to have certain downstream effects and I’d think total job population would be one of them. 
 

At any rate, that wasn’t my point in the post you replied to (I think you know that) it was rather to point out that’s impossible to conceive of the BLS being partisan hacks anymore (that was one option on the table) we instead have to go with fucking incompetent. 
fix the damn model assholes. 

 

25 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So, he’s got this wrong I’m pretty sure. They are still revising his jobs numbers down the next couple months. If you are in power that’s how you went it to play out. Everyone only looks at the headline and doesn’t pay attention to the revisions. He got a months worth of good headlines that apparently weren’t deserved as it related to jobs. 

I’ve settled above on rank incompetence. He is pining it on partisanship but he’s getting the same breaks he’s bitching about Biden getting. 
all that said if we’d have gotten the jobs numbers right for the last 18 months the Fed would be 100 basis points lower and mortgage rates would be as well. 
 

I say this with all due respect. The reason job reports always have to be revised is because the calculations are based on very minimal information. If you actually walk thru the process of how the numbers are estimated, you quickly realize the level of accuracy desired is impossible to reach quickly. It’s not incompetence. It’s simply math. Think of mm of accuracy on a football field.

I continue to be amazed by people who are obviously educated that get conned by the subterfuge being created by this administration. The reality is really not that complicated. 

The administration is pursuing trade policies that have the potential to raise the rates of goods and services for Americans and potentially ignite inflation again, creating a financial disaster. The Fed can’t cut rates until there is clear data that inflation won’t take off again, because that’s the thing about inflation. Once it starts it’s painful to stop it. Do you have no knowledge of what happened in the 1970’s and early 1980’s? I sure do and it wasn’t pleasant. 

110% of this problem is on the back of the guy in the Oval Office, but because people fall for his bullshit, they think the blame lies elsewhere. He just fired the BLS guy not because he’s incompetent, but so he can create fake statistics and lie to everyone. Amazingly, people still just don’t get it yet. 

With all that said, a cut is coming soon. Why? Because he’s purposely driving the country into the ditch so that he and his billionaire buddies can go buy up assets at reduced prices, using funds that he’s gotten as bribes from countries, pardoned criminals, crypto rubes, and a thousand other schemes.  

Of you don’t believe it, just listen to his own words on a Netflix show where he states his desire to have crashes so he can buy cheap. 

This country is getting conned like it never has before. 

Posted
21 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

 

 

I say this with all due respect. The reason job reports always have to be revised is

You are apparently missing the argument I’ve been making monthly for 18 months. I don’t care that they are always revised. I know they are always revised. I care that they are always revised downward, meaning BLS always (almost) misses in the same direction by overstating. 
last month I was like wonder of wonders they revised upward by 10k. Wow. Then this month they were like lol no, that 10k we revised up we are going to hit with 185k down. 

Posted
12 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

You are apparently missing the argument I’ve been making monthly for 18 months. I don’t care that they are always revised. I know they are always revised. I care that they are always revised downward, meaning BLS always (almost) misses in the same direction by overstating. 
last month I was like wonder of wonders they revised upward by 10k. Wow. Then this month they were like lol no, that 10k we revised up we are going to hit with 185k down. 

Here are the changes and revisions for the last several years. It is not surprising that a slowing economy is going to be revised downward. Statistics have to catch up with reality.

U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment Changes and Revisions

January 2018 through June 2025 (Second Quarter 2025)

Data in thousands, seasonally adjusted

Month/Year Initial Report (1st) Second Estimate (2nd) Final Estimate (3rd) Revision (2nd - 1st) Revision (3rd - 2nd) Total Revision (3rd - 1st)
2018            
Jan 2018 200 239 176 +39 -63 -24
Feb 2018 313 326 324 +13 -2 +11
Mar 2018 103 135 155 +32 +20 +52
Apr 2018 164 159 175 -5 +16 +11
May 2018 223 244 268 +21 +24 +45
Jun 2018 213 248 208 +35 -40 -5
Jul 2018 157 147 165 -10 +18 +8
Aug 2018 201 270 286 +69 +16 +85
Sep 2018 134 118 119 -16 +1 -15
Oct 2018 250 237 274 -13 +37 +24
Nov 2018 155 176 196 +21 +20 +41
Dec 2018 312 222 227 -90 +5 -85
2019            
Jan 2019 304 311 312 +7 +1 +8
Feb 2019 20 33 56 +13 +23 +36
Mar 2019 196 189 153 -7 -36 -43
Apr 2019 263 224 216 -39 -8 -47
May 2019 75 72 62 -3 -10 -13
Jun 2019 224 193 178 -31 -15 -46
Jul 2019 164 159 166 -5 +7 +2
Aug 2019 130 168 219 +38 +51 +89
Sep 2019 136 180 193 +44 +13 +57
Oct 2019 128 156 152 +28 -4 +24
Nov 2019 266 256 261 -10 +5 -5
Dec 2019 145 147 184 +2 +37 +39
2020            
Jan 2020 225 273 214 +48 -59 -11
Feb 2020 273 275 251 +2 -24 -22
Mar 2020 -701 -881 -1,373 -180 -492 -672
Apr 2020 -20,537 -20,687 -20,787 -150 -100 -250
May 2020 2,509 2,699 2,725 +190 +26 +216
Jun 2020 4,800 4,791 4,781 -9 -10 -19
Jul 2020 1,763 1,734 1,761 -29 +27 -2
Aug 2020 1,371 1,489 1,493 +118 +4 +122
Sep 2020 661 672 711 +11 +39 +50
Oct 2020 638 610 654 -28 +44 +16
Nov 2020 245 336 264 +91 -72 +19
Dec 2020 -140 -227 -306 -87 -79 -166
2021            
Jan 2021 49 166 233 +117 +67 +184
Feb 2021 379 468 536 +89 +68 +157
Mar 2021 916 770 785 -146 +15 -131
Apr 2021 266 278 269 +12 -9 +3
May 2021 559 583 614 +24 +31 +55
Jun 2021 850 938 962 +88 +24 +112
Jul 2021 943 1,053 1,091 +110 +38 +148
Aug 2021 235 366 483 +131 +117 +248
Sep 2021 194 312 379 +118 +67 +185
Oct 2021 531 546 648 +15 +102 +117
Nov 2021 210 249 647 +39 +398 +437
Dec 2021 199 510 588 +311 +78 +389
2022            
Jan 2022 467 481 504 +14 +23 +37
Feb 2022 678 750 714 +72 -36 +36
Mar 2022 431 428 398 -3 -30 -33
Apr 2022 428 436 368 +8 -68 -60
May 2022 390 384 386 -6 +2 -4
Jun 2022 372 398 293 +26 -105 -79
Jul 2022 528 526 537 -2 +11 +9
Aug 2022 315 315 292 0 -23 -23
Sep 2022 263 315 269 +52 -46 +6
Oct 2022 261 284 263 +23 -21 +2
Nov 2022 263 256 290 -7 +34 +27
Dec 2022 223 260 239 +37 -21 +16
2023            
Jan 2023 517 504 472 -13 -32 -45
Feb 2023 311 326 248 +15 -78 -63
Mar 2023 236 165 217 -71 +52 -19
Apr 2023 253 294 217 +41 -77 -36
May 2023 339 306 281 -33 -25 -58
Jun 2023 209 185 105 -24 -80 -104
Jul 2023 187 157 236 -30 +79 +49
Aug 2023 187 227 165 +40 -62 -22
Sep 2023 336 297 262 -39 -34 -74
Oct 2023 150 150 105 0 -45 -45
Nov 2023 199 173 182 -26 +9 -17
Dec 2023 216 333 290 +117 -43 +74
2024            
Jan 2024 353 229 256 -124 +27 -97
Feb 2024 275 270 236 -5 -34 -39
Mar 2024 303 315 310 +12 -5 +7
Apr 2024 175 165 108 -10 -57 -67
May 2024 272 218 216 -54 -2 -56
Jun 2024 206 179 118 -27 -61 -88
Jul 2024 114 89 144 -25 +55 +30
Aug 2024 142 159 78 +17 -81 -64
Sep 2024 254 223 255 -31 +32 +1
Oct 2024 12 36 43 +24 +7 +31
Nov 2024 227 212 261 -15 +49 +34
Dec 2024 256 307 323 +51 +16 +67
2025 Q1-Q2            
Jan 2025 143 125 111 -18 -14 -32
Feb 2025 151 117 102 -34 -15 -49
Mar 2025 228 185 120 -43 -65 -108
Apr 2025 177 147 158 -30 +11 -19
May 2025 139 144 +5
Jun 2025 147

Key Notes:

  • Initial Report (1st): First estimate released ~3 weeks after reference month
  • Second Estimate (2nd): Revised estimate released the following month
  • Final Estimate (3rd): Final sample-based estimate released 2 months after initial
  • Data shows employment changes in thousands of jobs (seasonally adjusted)
  • Most recent data shows June 2025 with 147,000 jobs added initially, with April and May 2025 revisions showing combined upward revision of 16,000
  • The preliminary 2025 benchmark revision will be released on September 9, 2025

Revision Patterns:

  • 2018-2019: Generally small revisions with mixed directions
  • 2020: Large pandemic-related revisions, especially in March-April 2020
  • 2021: Significant upward revisions as economic recovery estimates were refined
  • 2022-2023: Mixed revisions with some substantial downward adjustments
  • 2024: Continued pattern of mixed revisions, with several months showing significant downward adjustments in final estimates
  • 2025: Early months showing predominantly downward revisions
  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted

@Dbeasy I've tried to explain this stuff to him a couple of times before, but he completely ignores the explanation. I think he just prefers to live in a conspiratorial fantasy land.

There are three things going on with employment numbers and job figures that get published by the BLS. This was my first job out of grad school for a year, so this is all from first-hand experience.

  1. Current Employment SURVEY (CES): As you can guess, it's a monthly survey of employers asking how many employees they have at a given time. It's simply an ever-shifting estimate by geography (states and metro areas, not counties) and by industry sector. The first guestimate (that's really what it is because response rates can be low) and the second revised estimate to fill in the gaps later in the same month are done at the STATE level, not done by the feds but reported to them. It can get tricky because it does not account for business openings or closures. Also, the survey is entirely voluntary. So, some employers only intermittently will respond.
  2. Quarterly CENSUS of Employment and Wages (QCEW): This is your job count. These data are real, hard figures that are required to be reported on a quarterly basis for each month: headcount and wages by location (states and counties). It's an arduous process that often requires STATE workforce commission staff to call up the HR departments of individual businesses when numbers look funky and don’t match up well with previous reports. Because of all that, there's a six-month lag before they are publicly published.

As the actual real job counts come in, the estimates go through a revision process to bring them in line with the hard count, culminating at the end of each fiscal year with the final "benchmarked" numbers, which is a big to-do. Now, both of those above are concerned with JOBS, an important thing to keep in mind.

 

Finally, we have the monthly employment/unemployment figures through a program called Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS). I was not directly involved in this, so I can't say as much. That said, I worked in a giant cubicle farm in a converted warehouse on Rutherford, east of I-35) with other analysts who did this stuff. It's a household survey of people, basically asking them one question: Are you currently employed? I think they get the contact information from folks who've lost a job and have filed for unemployment compensation.

At the local level, my impression was that these data are a lot more squishy and are only "benchmarked" once a decade when the US Census results are published. That's because it's the only time analysts can get a real handle on the Civilian Labor Force (persons 16+ years of age) living in a county.

So, basically, you have the universe of people over that age (CLF) taken from the decennial Census and whether they have jobs (Employment). You take the difference (Unemployed) and calculate the Unemployment Rate. From there, they just apply household survey results to keep track of the number of unemployed people in each county. The problem is that it often doesn't capture significant population changes in a county, and so by the end of the decade, those figures can be pretty off and aren’t fixed until the next Census comes out.

 

So, the first two (CES and QCEW) programs are all about jobs, while LAUS is all about people. For labor market and economic data geeks, that's an important distinction because a person can hold more than one job at a time.

 

I hope this doesn't seem like I'm lecturing, especially to you Dbeasy, but I just wanted to lay this all out there to provide transparency about how the foundational figures from which just about all employment data are calculated, so folks don't fall back on paranoid (and lazy) conspiracies.

 

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
7 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

110% of this problem is on the back of the guy in the Oval Office, but because people fall for his bullshit, they think the blame lies elsewhere. He just fired the BLS guy

*gal

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