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On 12/9/2023 at 11:21 AM, StassneyHorn said:

 

Retail Group Retracts Startling Claim About ‘Organized’ Shoplifting

The National Retail Federation had said that nearly half of the industry’s $94.5 billion in missing merchandise in 2021 was the result of organized theft. It was likely closer to 5 percent.
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A national lobbying group has retracted its startling estimate that “organized retail crime” was responsible for nearly half the $94.5 billion in store merchandise that disappeared in 2021, a figure that helped amplify claims that the United States was experiencing a nationwide wave of shoplifting.
The group, the National Retail Federation, edited that claim last week from a widely cited report issued in April, after the trade publication Retail Dive revealed that faulty data had been used to arrive at the inaccurate figure.
The retraction comes as retail chains like Target continue to claim that they are the victims of large shoplifting operations that have cut into profits, forcing them to close stores or inconvenience customers by locking products away.
The claims have been fueled by widely shared videos of a few instances of brazen shoplifters, including images of masked groups smashing windows and grabbing high-end purses and cellphones. But the data show this impression of rampant criminality was a mirage.
 
In fact, retail theft has been lower this year in most of the country than it was a few years ago, according to police data. Some exceptions, including New York City, exist. But in most major cities, shoplifting incidents have fallen 7 percent since 2019.
Organized retail crime, in which multiple individuals steal products from several stores to later sell on the black market, is a real phenomenon, said Trevor Wagener, the chief economist at the Computer & Communications Industry Association, who has conducted research on retail data. But he said organized groups were likely responsible for just about 5 percent of the store merchandise that disappeared from 2016 to 2020.
 
He emphasized that there’s “a lot of uncertainty and imprecision” in measuring losses, because it is difficult to parse out what is shoplifting and what is organized crime.
Mr. Wagener testified in Congress in June about the discrepancy in the National Retail Federation’s report.
Even as it retracted the figure and revised the report, the federation, which has more than 17,000 member companies, insisted in an emailed statement that its focus on the problem was appropriate.
 
“We stand behind the widely understood fact that organized retail crime is a serious problem impacting retailers of all sizes and communities across our nation,” the statement said. “At the same time, we recognize the challenges the retail industry and law enforcement have with gathering and analyzing an accurate and agreed-upon set of data.”
 
At issue is “total annual shrink” — the industry term for the value of merchandise that disappears from stores without being paid for, through theft, damage and inventory tracking mistakes.
Mary McGinty, a spokeswoman for the federation, said the error was caused by an analyst from K2 Integrity, an advisory firm that helped produce the report.
The analyst, who was not named, linked a 2021 National Retail Federation survey with a quote from Ben Dugan, the former president of the advocacy group Coalition of Law Enforcement and Retail, who said in Senate testimony in 2021 that organized retail crime “accounts for $45 billion in annual losses for retailers.”
Mr. Dugan was citing the federation’s 2016 National Retail Security Survey, which was actually referring to the overall cost of shrink in 2015 — not the amount lost to just organized retail crime, Ms. McGinty said.
 
Alec Karakatsanis, a civil rights lawyer who has studied and critiqued how the media has covered organized retail crime, said that the retraction underscored how some news organizations, which have extensively covered the issue of shoplifting, were “used as a tool by certain vested interests to gin up a lot of fear about this issue when, in fact, it was pretty clear all along that the facts didn’t add up.”
One of the most prominent examples came in October 2021, when Walgreens said it would close five stores in San Francisco, citing repeated instances of organized shoplifting. The company’s decision had come months after a video seen millions of times showed a man, garbage bag in hand, openly stealing products from a Walgreens as others watched.
But an October 2021 analysis by The San Francisco Chronicle showed that Police Department data on shoplifting did not support Walgreen’s explanation for the store closings.
Eventually, Walgreens retreated from its claims. In January, an executive at the company said that Walgreens might have overstated the effects on its business, saying: “Maybe we cried too much last year.”
Mr. Karakatsanis said the exaggerated narrative of widespread shoplifting was weaponized by the retail industry as it lobbied Congress to pass bills that would regulate online retailers, which they claim is where much of the stolen product ends up.
 
Commentators and politicians have seized on the issue. Earlier this year, Gov. Gavin Newsom, Democrat of California, responded to reports of large-scale thefts in the state with a call for tough prosecution of shoplifters and a plan to invest millions of dollars to fight “organized retail theft.” Gov. Ron DeSantis, Republican of Florida, signed a bill last year aimed at retail theft, and former President Donald J. Trump called for violence, telling Republican activists in California this year that the police should shoot shoplifters as they are leaving a store.
Mr. Wagener, the chief economist at the Computer & Communications Industry Association, said that the National Retail Federation’s report in April immediately stuck out to him as wrong. The error was troubling, he said, because the federation has long been viewed as a trusted provider of data for the industry.
What made the federation’s mistake even more surprising, Mr. Wagener said, was how starkly the figure contrasted to the group’s own previous findings.
In 2020, the federation said in a report that organized retail crime cost retailers an average of $719,548 per $1 billion in sales — a number that would point nowhere near the roughly 50 percent claim made in the April report.
Another National Retail Federation survey showed that all external theft — including thefts unrelated to organized retail crime — accounted for 37 percent of shrink, a figure that would still be billions of dollars less than the incorrect estimate of 50 percent made in April.
 
“It would be a bit like the census claiming that nearly half of the U.S. population lives in the state of Rhode Island,” Mr. Wagener said.

 

It's such a burden being right all the time.

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On 12/7/2023 at 11:41 AM, Incredulity said:

They retracted "organized" not the amount.

Dunk Fail GIF

The amount was for the entirety of shrinkage and attributed to the "organized crime" part.  Perhaps an audio medium would help.

https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/otm/episodes/on-the-media-media-shoplifting-panic-ai-journalism-wrong

 

Who am I kidding? 

 

Edited by Biff Tannen
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3 hours ago, elfenix said:

I would not be embarrassed to make that argument. I wouldn't be embarrassed to appeal that argument. Especially for Kohls which has never once sold anything at MSRP. After coupon price would be a step too far but definitely whatever was on the electronic tag that day.
 

If you have enough Kohls cash, it’s basically free 

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19 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

The amount was for the entirety of shrinkage and attributed to the "organized crime" part.  Perhaps an audio medium would help.

https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/otm/episodes/on-the-media-media-shoplifting-panic-ai-journalism-wrong

 

Who am I kidding? 

 

From the link in the article 

The council tracks 24 major U.S. cities. Overall, shoplifting incidents were 16 percent higher in the first half of 2023 than the first half of 2019. When New York City is excluded, however, reported shoplifting incidents fell over the same time period. Out of the 24 cities, 17 reported decreases in shoplifting

 

Huge brain Leftist: “if we exclude the largest data point in this survey shoplifting is down”


 

Surly Leftists 

ThERe IsN’t ReALlY ShOpLiFTinG!!1!!!!1

 

image.jpeg.eafcbe23200f239c3db57eac0b23c0ec.jpeg


 

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Not Cali, but shoplifting and thought the judges response was funny:

Quote

They tried: In Colorado, thefts under $2k are misdemeanors. Thus, two men convicted of stealing $2,094.98 in shoes, clothes, and KitchenAid appliances from a Colorado Kohl’s argued their charges should be reduced from felonies as some of those items were actually on sale. Prosecutors countered that sales are only for paying customers.

https://www.denver7.com/news/crime/convicted-kohls-thieves-argued-for-lesser-charge-because-items-were-on-sale

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I'm picturing that defendant in the orange jumpsuit and still cuffed appearing before the bench a few years ago who was hitting on the prosecutor (who was sexy as hell FTR).  But now the meme is holding, with his restrained hands, a Kohl's coupon like "See this?  30% off, so all good under under the hood for under 2 large, marge." 

But really the important thing here is that Incredulity is the man we want on that retail wall, protecting us all this holiday season.  Deep down inside, YOU WANT ME ON THAT WALL!  But actually he's the security guard from Seinfeld asleep in his new rocking chair.  But I still think he's pretty funny. 

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Dec. 16, 2023, 4:00 AM PST

Crime in the United States has declined significantly over the last year, according to new FBI data that contradicts a widespread national perception that law-breaking and violence are on the rise.

A Gallup poll released this month found that 77% of Americans believe crime rates are worsening, but they are mistaken, the new FBI data and other statistics show.

 

The FBI data, which compares crime rates in the third quarter of 2023 to the same period last year, found that violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3% to what would be its lowest level since 1961, according to criminologist Jeff Asher, who analyzed the FBI numbers.

Murder plummeted in the United States in 2023 at one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded, Asher found, and every category of major crime except auto theft declined.

Yet 92% of Republicans, 78% of independents and 58% of Democrats believe crime is rising, the Gallup survey shows.

“I think we’ve been conditioned, and we have no way of countering the idea” that crime is rising,” Asher said. “It’s just an overwhelming number of news media stories and viral videos — I have to believe that social media is playing a role.”

The FBI’s quarterly numbers cover about 78% of the U.S. population and don’t give as full a picture as the more comprehensive annual report the FBI puts out once a year. But Asher said the quarterly reports in the past have hewed fairly close to the annual ones.

The most recent annual report, released in October, covered 94% of the country and found that violent crime in 2022 fell back to pre-pandemic levels, with murder dropping 6.1%.

Asher maintains a separate database of murder in big cities which found that murder is down 12.7 percent this year, after rising during the pandemic. 

Detroit is on pace to have the fewest murders since 1966, Asher found, while Baltimore and St Louis are on track to post the fewest murders in each city in nearly a decade. A few cities, including Memphis and Washington DC, are still seeing increases in their murder rates, but they are outliers.

FBI data doesn’t have a separate category for retail theft. It falls under “larceny,” which declined overall last year, according to the latest numbers. Retail theft is widely believed to have skyrocketed in some cities, and the industry says it is at “unprecedented” levels. But the data doesn’t necessarily support that thesis.

FBI numbers are not the only measure of crime. The annual Justice Department survey of criminal victimization in 2022 found that a lot of crime goes unreported, and that more people reported being victims of violent crime in 2022 than in 2021. But Asher has documented questions about that survey’s methodology. 

So why are Americans’ perceptions about crime so different from the apparent reality? Asher believes there is a measure of partisanship at work — Republicans are more ready to believe crime is increasing while Democrats hold the White House — but he largely chalks it up to media consumption.

“My neighbors never post on NextDoor how many thousands of packages they successfully receive,” he wrote recently. “Only video of the one that randomly got swiped.”

Asher and other analysts say the natural tendency of the news media to highlight disturbing crime stories — and the tendency of those stories to go viral on social media — presents a false but persuasive picture.

Videos of flash mobs on shop lifting sprees or carjackings in broad day light are more ubiquitous, even if those crimes are not.

“These outlier incidents become the glue people rely on when guesstimating whether crime is up or down,” he wrote.

 

and I'd wager a huge portion of the auto theft is attributable to Kias being complete pieces of shit that a 4 year old can steal.

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15 hours ago, Gil Bang said:
Dec. 16, 2023, 4:00 AM PST

Crime in the United States has declined significantly over the last year, according to new FBI data that contradicts a widespread national perception that law-breaking and violence are on the rise.

A Gallup poll released this month found that 77% of Americans believe crime rates are worsening, but they are mistaken, the new FBI data and other statistics show.

 

The FBI data, which compares crime rates in the third quarter of 2023 to the same period last year, found that violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3% to what would be its lowest level since 1961, according to criminologist Jeff Asher, who analyzed the FBI numbers.

Murder plummeted in the United States in 2023 at one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded, Asher found, and every category of major crime except auto theft declined.

Yet 92% of Republicans, 78% of independents and 58% of Democrats believe crime is rising, the Gallup survey shows.

“I think we’ve been conditioned, and we have no way of countering the idea” that crime is rising,” Asher said. “It’s just an overwhelming number of news media stories and viral videos — I have to believe that social media is playing a role.”

The FBI’s quarterly numbers cover about 78% of the U.S. population and don’t give as full a picture as the more comprehensive annual report the FBI puts out once a year. But Asher said the quarterly reports in the past have hewed fairly close to the annual ones.

The most recent annual report, released in October, covered 94% of the country and found that violent crime in 2022 fell back to pre-pandemic levels, with murder dropping 6.1%.

Asher maintains a separate database of murder in big cities which found that murder is down 12.7 percent this year, after rising during the pandemic. 

Detroit is on pace to have the fewest murders since 1966, Asher found, while Baltimore and St Louis are on track to post the fewest murders in each city in nearly a decade. A few cities, including Memphis and Washington DC, are still seeing increases in their murder rates, but they are outliers.

FBI data doesn’t have a separate category for retail theft. It falls under “larceny,” which declined overall last year, according to the latest numbers. Retail theft is widely believed to have skyrocketed in some cities, and the industry says it is at “unprecedented” levels. But the data doesn’t necessarily support that thesis.

FBI numbers are not the only measure of crime. The annual Justice Department survey of criminal victimization in 2022 found that a lot of crime goes unreported, and that more people reported being victims of violent crime in 2022 than in 2021. But Asher has documented questions about that survey’s methodology. 

So why are Americans’ perceptions about crime so different from the apparent reality? Asher believes there is a measure of partisanship at work — Republicans are more ready to believe crime is increasing while Democrats hold the White House — but he largely chalks it up to media consumption.

“My neighbors never post on NextDoor how many thousands of packages they successfully receive,” he wrote recently. “Only video of the one that randomly got swiped.”

Asher and other analysts say the natural tendency of the news media to highlight disturbing crime stories — and the tendency of those stories to go viral on social media — presents a false but persuasive picture.

Videos of flash mobs on shop lifting sprees or carjackings in broad day light are more ubiquitous, even if those crimes are not.

“These outlier incidents become the glue people rely on when guesstimating whether crime is up or down,” he wrote.

 

and I'd wager a huge portion of the auto theft is attributable to Kias being complete pieces of shit that a 4 year old can steal.

 

Meanwhile, my MIL has 12 security cameras covering every square inch of her property that has fencing and gates on 3 sides and water on the 4th side, at the end of a street that pretty much no one knows exists on the very backside of Steiner Ranch and the subdivision itself is gated.  I figure she's also inside her closet like this:

DZ_M4wYVwAEzGjV.jpg

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  • 4 weeks later...

Over the last couple of years, it seemed that America was experiencing a shoplifting epidemic. Videos of people brazenly stealing merchandise from retailers often went viral; chains closed some of their stores and cited a rise in theft as the primary reason; and drugstores such as CVS and Walgreens started locking up more of their inventory, including everyday items like toothpaste, soaps, and snacks. Lawmakers from both major parties called for, and in some cases even implemented, more punitive law enforcement policies aimed at bucking the apparent trend.

But evidence of a spike in shoplifting, it turns out, was mostly anecdotal. In fact, there’s little data to suggest that there’s a nationwide problem in need of an immediate response from city councils or state legislatures. Instead, what America seems to be experiencing is less of a shoplifting wave and more of a moral panic.

 

https://www.vox.com/politics/24025691/shoplifting-scare-criminal-justice-reform

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  • 2 weeks later...

Those dastardly capitalists trying to pump up their stock price and weasel out of leases are at it again

 

 

 

https://ktla.com/news/california/in-n-out-location-to-close-due-to-issues-of-ongoing-crime/

 

An In-N-Out Burger location that’s been open for 18 years has decided to close its doors for good in the coming months, citing “issues of ongoing crime.”

Chief Operating Officer Denny Warnick released a statement regarding the closure, saying, “We have made the decision to close our In-N-Out Burger location in Oakland, California, due to ongoing issues with crime. Despite taking repeated steps to create safer conditions, our customers and associates are regularly victimized by car break-ins, property damage, theft, and armed robberies.” 

 

 


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Surly Leftists :

ThERe IsN’t ReALlY ShOpLiFTinG!!1!!!!1

 

image.jpeg.eafcbe23200f239c3db57eac0b23c0ec.jpeg

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They have well over 400 locations.  It'd be weird actually if one didn't close for upticks in crime, another for vagrancy, another for lack of sales traffic, another for being in a tornado.  

When a company with over 400 locations, many of which are owned outright in fee simple or with really preferred ground lease terms, reports zero locations having any external issues...that's a sign that company is full of shit.  Give me a map and a SVP for Real Estate with a drinking problem and I'll show you a company's real estate asset sheet that is full of shit.  

csb/ When I was a student at the University of the United States, I was lunching at a nearby burger joint called "Enclosed 'N Revealed" when it was crime'd by a stickup criminal who was black.  Scary shit.  He had held-up the place a few times prior.  I bet they finally shut that location down due all the black crimes there.  I believe the syndicate was called "The African Connection"  

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Looking at reviews for that location on Google, there does appear to be a crime problem specific to that location (specifically, vehicle break ins), possibly due to its proximity to the airport. Which seems like it should be fairly easy for cops to stop, you know, if they actually gave a shit about doing their jobs.

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There's some related scuttlebutt that Pizza Hut used the wage increase in California as an excuse to fire all of those delivery drivers.   However, they've shifted the expense of delivery to Uber Eats, Grubhub, etc.  The rumors are that Pizza Hut had this planned all along to cut costs while using the wage increase as cover. 

Walgreens completely over expanded, both in store fronts and acquisitions of other entities in the last few years.   They've been cutting staff and hours for a while now resulting in overworked employees.   Pharmacists are striking here and there.   Blaming the shoplifting gives them further cover to shut stores,  

These moves are simply corporate shenanigans to drive profit and increase shareholder value at the expense of all else.  We're all just pawns in the game of life.

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Restaurants and retailers overplayed their real estate hand.  That's mostly all it is.  Obviously crime is a component.  But between online/delivery services/covid, the vast majority of Americans finally realized, "Yeah, driving a poorly lit Walgreen's or burger joint that is filthy to get something I can get delivered home for about the same price with none of the time and parking hassle is gonna be our family's preferred method going forward."  Meanwhile, these dipshit expansion models at $30/foot NNN lease of $200-$400/ft for new buildout are finally realizing, "Oh, the upscale shopping/dining experience that everyone still crave doesn't really work for Duane-Reade or Wendy's?"  Hmmm, who knew?  

Remember that time you really, really wanted to browse for an hour at a Garden Ridge?  Yeah, me neither.

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2 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

burger joint that is filthy to get something I can get delivered home for about the same price with none of the time and parking hassle is gonna be our family's preferred method going forward.

tell me you have never been to an In-n-Out without telling me you have never been to an In-n-Out

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So In-n-Outs are crime-laden filth joints or they are pristine and clean?  Or is there nuance to locations given there are over 400 and one was finally prone to crime and loitering?  

They, and a number of other franchises, are starting a model where they just cook their stuff on the outskirts of town and have it brought to your home or for pickup or catering or whatever.  What they save on real estate costs, both parties can pass along to the driver/delivery service.  It's a no-brainer model.  My kids and I crave McDonald's every now and again.  But dining in fucking blows.  The drive-thru takes forever.  If you can bring it to my house for about the same price, why not do that?  Plus I get to avoid all these murdering thugs that apparently keep attacking you while you're trying to get your double-double on.  

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3 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Restaurants and retailers overplayed their real estate hand.  That's mostly all it is.  Obviously crime is a component.  But between online/delivery services/covid, the vast majority of Americans finally realized, "Yeah, driving a poorly lit Walgreen's or burger joint that is filthy to get something I can get delivered home for about the same price with none of the time and parking hassle is gonna be our family's preferred method going forward."  Meanwhile, these dipshit expansion models at $30/foot NNN lease of $200-$400/ft for new buildout are finally realizing, "Oh, the upscale shopping/dining experience that everyone still crave doesn't really work for Duane-Reade or Wendy's?"  Hmmm, who knew?  

Remember that time you really, really wanted to browse for an hour at a Garden Ridge?  Yeah, me neither.

Looking at that location on Google, it doesn't look like it was a shitty or dangerous area. The same retail center had what looks like a pretty new Raising Cane's, a Chipotle, and a Jamba Juice in it and the whole area looked pretty clean, though there were some recently closed spaces including what looks like it used to be a hardware store (hardly unusual post-covid). 

The crime appears to be limited to vehicular break ins and most reports of them on Google reviews come from people in rental cars who stop to go inside to eat. Which, yeah, that could certainly fuck with your business and steer people away (though its rating on Google is still 4.4/5 stars) and I don't doubt that it was a factor and their decision making, but I suspect their lease is expiring and their landlord wouldn't agree on a rent reduction. 

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2 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

So In-n-Outs are crime-laden filth joints or they are pristine and clean?

They are known for high quality(don't start the fucking InO vs WB bullshit, quality is somewhat subjective), very fair prices, and clean stores.  No franchises.

They keep the location adjacent to the LV strip clean and I have seen stuff happen in there that is crazy.

 

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1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

Those dastardly capitalists trying to pump up their stock price and weasel out of leases are at it again

 

 

 

https://ktla.com/news/california/in-n-out-location-to-close-due-to-issues-of-ongoing-crime/

 

An In-N-Out Burger location that’s been open for 18 years has decided to close its doors for good in the coming months, citing “issues of ongoing crime.”

Chief Operating Officer Denny Warnick released a statement regarding the closure, saying, “We have made the decision to close our In-N-Out Burger location in Oakland, California, due to ongoing issues with crime. Despite taking repeated steps to create safer conditions, our customers and associates are regularly victimized by car break-ins, property damage, theft, and armed robberies.” 

 

 


  •  

 

Surly Leftists :

ThERe IsN’t ReALlY ShOpLiFTinG!!1!!!!1

 

image.jpeg.eafcbe23200f239c3db57eac0b23c0ec.jpeg

My guy East Oakland is like the hood of all hoods, why do you even care? (Oh wait…)

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1 hour ago, Macanudo said:

There's some related scuttlebutt that Pizza Hut used the wage increase in California as an excuse to fire all of those delivery drivers.   However, they've shifted the expense of delivery to Uber Eats, Grubhub, etc.  The rumors are that Pizza Hut had this planned all along to cut costs while using the wage increase as cover. 

Walgreens completely over expanded, both in store fronts and acquisitions of other entities in the last few years.   They've been cutting staff and hours for a while now resulting in overworked employees.   Pharmacists are striking here and there.   Blaming the shoplifting gives them further cover to shut stores,  

These moves are simply corporate shenanigans to drive profit and increase shareholder value at the expense of all else.  We're all just pawns in the game of life.

The issue with delivery drivers is a tough one.  I am all for people getting paid whatever they can.  California is one of a few states that have outlawed a minimum "tipped wage".  Essentially, the delivery drivers were going to get a $20 min wage, plus mileage reimbursements, plus all of their tips.  

From an economic standpoint (and I am using round numbers to make the point), the cost to have those employees just doesn't work.  On average, a Pizza Hut delivery person will make 3 deliveries per hour.  That driver's cost per hour to Pizza Hut is approximately $34/hour ($20 wage plus 30% for mandatory taxes/benefits/insurance etc, $8 in mileage reimbursement).  An average Pizza Hut has about a 40% gross (as opposed to net) margin.  So that driver has to deliver at least $80 worth of pizza per hour just for the store to break even.  The average price of a delivery is $25.  3 deliveries a shift equals $75.  Adding in a $2 delivery fee basically justs get the owner to a break even point.  

Also, drivers for places like Pizza Hut are usually required to help with dishes, folding boxes, clean up after shift etc.  Most people do not want to do that so they drive for one of the delivery companies.  As a result, staffing for drivers for Pizza Hut was very difficult.  It became too much of a customer relations pain in the ass than it was worth.  So they just cut out a portion of their business that was not profitable and was causing customer issues.  Easy decision.  And the customer experience was actually better as there is an almost unending stream of drivers available to deliver for them through the services.

I will be shocked if any delivery heavy restaurants have their own drivers much longer.

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5 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

That driver's cost per hour to Pizza Hut is approximately $34/hour ($20 wage plus 30% for mandatory taxes/benefits/insurance etc, $8 in mileage reimbursement).  An average Pizza Hut has about a 40% gross (as opposed to net) margin.  So that driver has to deliver at least $80 worth of pizza per hour just for the store to break even.  The average price of a delivery is $25.  3 deliveries a shift equals $75.  Adding in a $2 delivery fee basically justs get the owner to a break even point.  

 

I highly doubt that delivery drivers are getting benefits.  Here's what Pizza Hut is offering in my neck of the woods:

Benefits
SOME Perks & Benefits (Based on eligibility requirements:)
A discount program that has discounts on things like glasses, hearing aids, weight loss programs, step tracking devices, shoes, etc
A provider finder/cost estimation tool, allowing members to find in-network providers and get a cost estimation before the visit
A wellness program, where earning points for things like achieve step goals, can be redeemed to purchase wellness related items
A pregnancy planning tool, that helps track fertility, baby growth, milestones, etc
Receive your GED credentials at no cost to you
Tuition Assistance
We invest in YOU by Empowerment and Building Confidence for your future
**Tips are paid daily for drivers
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42 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

The issue with delivery drivers is a tough one.  I am all for people getting paid whatever they can.  California is one of a few states that have outlawed a minimum "tipped wage".  Essentially, the delivery drivers were going to get a $20 min wage, plus mileage reimbursements, plus all of their tips.  

From an economic standpoint (and I am using round numbers to make the point), the cost to have those employees just doesn't work.  On average, a Pizza Hut delivery person will make 3 deliveries per hour.  That driver's cost per hour to Pizza Hut is approximately $34/hour ($20 wage plus 30% for mandatory taxes/benefits/insurance etc, $8 in mileage reimbursement).  An average Pizza Hut has about a 40% gross (as opposed to net) margin.  So that driver has to deliver at least $80 worth of pizza per hour just for the store to break even.  The average price of a delivery is $25.  3 deliveries a shift equals $75.  Adding in a $2 delivery fee basically justs get the owner to a break even point.  

Also, drivers for places like Pizza Hut are usually required to help with dishes, folding boxes, clean up after shift etc.  Most people do not want to do that so they drive for one of the delivery companies.  As a result, staffing for drivers for Pizza Hut was very difficult.  It became too much of a customer relations pain in the ass than it was worth.  So they just cut out a portion of their business that was not profitable and was causing customer issues.  Easy decision.  And the customer experience was actually better as there is an almost unending stream of drivers available to deliver for them through the services.

I will be shocked if any delivery heavy restaurants have their own drivers much longer.

It's crazy it's only a 40% gross because I thought I read once that a pizza is one of the highest margin items we consume. A pizza costs something like less than $1 to make at the scale of a Pizza Hut and is sold at a minimum of 1000% margin.

So everything else involved in the business must be a money pit.

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31 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

I highly doubt that delivery drivers are getting benefits.  Here's what Pizza Hut is offering in my neck of the woods:

Benefits
SOME Perks & Benefits (Based on eligibility requirements:)
A discount program that has discounts on things like glasses, hearing aids, weight loss programs, step tracking devices, shoes, etc
A provider finder/cost estimation tool, allowing members to find in-network providers and get a cost estimation before the visit
A wellness program, where earning points for things like achieve step goals, can be redeemed to purchase wellness related items
A pregnancy planning tool, that helps track fertility, baby growth, milestones, etc
Receive your GED credentials at no cost to you
Tuition Assistance
We invest in YOU by Empowerment and Building Confidence for your future
**Tips are paid daily for drivers

The generally accepted average for "cost of employees" is 25%-40% of wages. 

https://web.mit.edu/e-club/hadzima/how-much-does-an-employee-cost.html

California is higher as there is an additional 7% or so for state payroll taxes.  But, we can just use 15% and the calculus doesn't change much.  I have studied this stuff a bunch.  Low cost pizza has to do delivery of some kind to stay competitive.  It is cheaper to offload that delivery cost now than to do it internally.  It is not even close.

And the employer headaches suck.  If your in house staff has a guy out (cook, wait staff etc), everyone else can make up the difference generally.  If your delivery driver is out you are stuck and your customers get mad and go to another restaurant.  

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1 hour ago, sheeeit said:

The generally accepted average for "cost of employees" is 25%-40% of wages. 

https://web.mit.edu/e-club/hadzima/how-much-does-an-employee-cost.html

California is higher as there is an additional 7% or so for state payroll taxes.  But, we can just use 15% and the calculus doesn't change much.  I have studied this stuff a bunch.  Low cost pizza has to do delivery of some kind to stay competitive.  It is cheaper to offload that delivery cost now than to do it internally.  It is not even close.

And the employer headaches suck.  If your in house staff has a guy out (cook, wait staff etc), everyone else can make up the difference generally.  If your delivery driver is out you are stuck and your customers get mad and go to another restaurant.  

That article is basically about office employees (cost of space and equipment.)   A pizza delivery guy does not coast an employer anywhere close to 40%.   Take it from a former pizza delivery guy.  30+ years later and I still can't stomach Mr. Gatti's pizza.

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Shit pizza places like Pizza Hut and Dominos; why do they operate out of storefronts when (if) the vast majority of the business is delivery? 

Seems like a spot in an industrial park or similar would be cheaper to operate.  We all know about "ghost kitchens".  Maybe that's the future for big pizza?

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14 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

That article is basically about office employees (cost of space and equipment.)   A pizza delivery guy does not coast an employer anywhere close to 40%.   Take it from a former pizza delivery guy.  30+ years later and I still can't stomach Mr. Gatti's pizza.

LOL.  My condolences on Mr Gattis.  That is tough work for sure.

Associated payroll taxes (especially in Cali) and insurance alone add up to nearly 15% already.  We are also talking about Pizza Huts which almost all still have an in house dining option.  Pizza Hut makes money from in house dining and drive through business but barely breaks even or loses money on their in house delivery business.  

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27 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

Shit pizza places like Pizza Hut and Dominos; why do they operate out of storefronts when (if) the vast majority of the business is delivery? 

Seems like a spot in an industrial park or similar would be cheaper to operate.  We all know about "ghost kitchens".  Maybe that's the future for big pizza?

Retail storefronts are closer to neighborhoods they deliver to. They're often able to get pretty good deals on rent too by taking small spaces that would otherwise be essentially untenantable.  

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30 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

Shit pizza places like Pizza Hut and Dominos; why do they operate out of storefronts when (if) the vast majority of the business is delivery? 

Seems like a spot in an industrial park or similar would be cheaper to operate.  We all know about "ghost kitchens".  Maybe that's the future for big pizza?

Have you seen those footprints lately (PH, Dominos, Papa Johns?) They are essentially tiny little storefronts used as a distribution (cook and pick up for delivery). At least in Texas. Rarely do they have dining anymore, much less anything more than two stray chairs and a cooler full of 2 liter Pepsi products in a crammed foyer.

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35 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

Shit pizza places like Pizza Hut and Dominos; why do they operate out of storefronts when (if) the vast majority of the business is delivery? 

Seems like a spot in an industrial park or similar would be cheaper to operate.  We all know about "ghost kitchens".  Maybe that's the future for big pizza?

Adding to the answers above, those places do a pretty sizable percentage of their sales in  takeout/drive through.

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Just now, sheeeit said:

Adding to the answers above, those places do a pretty sizable percentage of their sales in  takeout/drive through.

This.  Our neighborhood Dominos is literally on my way home from work.  Plenty of times when it's late, ain't gonna cook, am tired etc., I just online order as I leave the office, walk in and pick up, and am home in 2 minutes.  It's a sound business plan.  We hardly EVER do delivery of any pizza.

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51 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

We are also talking about Pizza Huts which almost all still have an in house dining option.  Pizza Hut makes money from in house dining and drive through business but barely breaks even or loses money on their in house delivery business.  

I really don't think that is true.   I bet the vast majority of Pizza Hut pizzas are sold through delivery or pickup.  And...  Drive through small town America.  Those ubiquitous Pizza Huts that used to be in every decent sized small town are now out of business or morphed into some other small restaurant.   

Edited by Macanudo
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8 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

I really don't think that is true.   I bet the vast majority of Pizza Hut pizzas are sold through delivery or pickup.  And...  Drive through small town America.  Those ubiquitous Pizza Huts that used to be in every decent sized small town are now out of business or morphed into some other small restaurant.   

As implied by his user name, he's full of it. The classic sit-down Pizza Huts are such a rarity these days that one intrepid blogger has taken on the task of making a list of those that are left. I know the one in my decently sized small town (25,000) closed its doors a few years ago on the old place and built a nondescript box with only take-out, drive-thru, and delivery options. For the more old-school experience, people in that town go to Pizza Inn.

https://rolandopujol.substack.com/p/the-retrologists-guide-to-pizza-hut

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Just now, bolverk said:

As implied by his user name, he's full of it. The classic sit-down Pizza Huts are such a rarity these days that one intrepid blogger has taken on the task of making a list of those that are left. I know the one in my decently sized small town (25,000) closed its doors a few years ago on the old place and built a nondescript box with only take-out, drive-thru, and delivery options. For the more old-school experience, people in that town go to Pizza Inn.

https://rolandopujol.substack.com/p/the-retrologists-guide-to-pizza-hut

Well, yeah.....everyone knows that for Pizza out, it's Pizza Inn!

s-l1200.jpg

 

 

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23 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

How did exaggerated organized retail theft lead to a post about one burger shop location closing cause of things happening outside the store?

We'll get to jaywalking sooner or later.

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