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Joe Biden 2023: The Dark Brandon Rises


StassneyHorn

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13 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

was talking to the gf today and she said something casually about "this economy" and I pressed her for more and her evidence was what she was hearing on podcasts. that frustration aside, maybe Biden needs to go sit on Rogan's show and just do nothing but read accomplishments from his admin and economic projections. have a an egghead on there beside him to refute any bullshit that comes from JR. might change some minds

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/12/inflation-fears-down-consumer-optimism-up-economy-may-start-to-help-biden-with-voters.html

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14 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

was talking to the gf today and she said something casually about "this economy" and I pressed her for more and her evidence was what she was hearing on podcasts. that frustration aside, maybe Biden needs to go sit on Rogan's show and just do nothing but read accomplishments from his admin and economic projections. have a an egghead on there beside him to refute any bullshit that comes from JR. might change some minds

I have friends, who today have never had more money in the bank and their stocks have never been higher, and yet they complain about Bidenomics due to eggs being 30% higher under Biden. Makes you question their intelligence that led them to earning that money.

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8 hours ago, aggie08 said:

And double fuck anyone trying to suggest that anyone's life is emptier without kids. To each their own.

 

My advice to people is always they better think long and hard about it. You have to subsume so much of yourself to raise kids, you better be onboard or you are just doing yourself and your children a disservice if you don't really want to do it.

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53 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I have friends, who today have never had more money in the bank and their stocks have never been higher, and yet they complain about Bidenomics due to eggs being 30% higher under Biden. Makes you question their intelligence that led them to earning that money.

Today, an egg costs $.088.  Your friends sound . . . .   Well, I'd have to make a list of reactions to that.

 

Edit.  Shoot me their address.  I'll send them some eggs.  That's how ridiculous their complaints are.  Oh, and for the record, I am a state employee with 2 kids (children mean my opinion matters apparently), one of whom consumes a shit-ton of eggs. 

Edited by dcbc
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24 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

It basically comes down to groceries and gas and whatever the media tells people. We are so dumb. 

I honestly think a lot of it is the stock market. Like it or not, it's seen as a gauge for the economy as a whole. I don't think it's a coincidence that the narrative has seemingly changed overnight as the market hit new highs.

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1 hour ago, G650 said:

 

My advice to people is always they better think long and hard about it. You have to subsume so much of yourself to raise kids, you better be onboard or you are just doing yourself and your children a disservice if you don't really want to do it.

I really hope @OnBoard doesnt have kids, actually.

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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I have friends, who today have never had more money in the bank and their stocks have never been higher, and yet they complain about Bidenomics due to eggs being 30% higher under Biden. Makes you question their intelligence that led them to earning that money.

As someone who has struggled with this erroneous line of thinking and has tried to do some reading and introspection, the problem (as I've reflected on it, in my opinion) is two-fold.

One, it's an emotional issue, and while factually we are making more income and doing better than in the past, if it doesn't feel like it then facts be damned, your emotions trump rationality.

But maybe more specifically, for two, I think it's a problem of the middle class schlubs like me who aren't very clever in personal finance.

While income has gone up, our working capital and free cash flow has remained the same (or in some cases gone down) due to making zero adjustments to the macroeconomic conditions the past 12-18 months. We aren't accustomed to having to make adjustments-- we are a set it and forget it type people (e.g. 401ks, auto-payments of mortgage, auto-renews of insurance, etc., creatures of habit in purchasing food, gas, vacations, etc.). We set up our life in a ZIP world and thought it would be that way forever.

So while our income went up, as inflation reared it's ugly head and literally everything we spent money on went up in cost, it ate into any disposable income gains to where they remained stagnant or even declined depending on your debt obligations, interest rates, and consuming habits. And in order to realize the disposable income gains for those who were smart enough to adjust behaviors, that feeds back into the emotional issue and cycle of "I have to downgrade my vacation plans" or "I can't eat out for breakfast every morning" or "I can't buy a new house or afford a new house" that makes it FEEL like a bad economy, irrespective of the fact that it was actually a growing/better economy from a GDP, stock market, etc.

TL;DR

Increased Income - Costs that remain the same = More disposable income to save and spend = Feeling good about the economy

Increased Income - Increased Costs = Same (or less) disposable income to save and spend = Feeling good about the economy 

Edited by BeardIP
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People don't really look at their income that hard.  You see a paystub or an online deposit slip that's bigger and ok, cool.  Maybe you look at your brokerage accounts every now and then, ok cool.

But you buy gas and groceries every couple of weeks and get a constant reminder of that, and it's ok fuck that.

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3 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

People don't really look at their income that hard.  You see a paystub or an online deposit slip that's bigger and ok, cool.  Maybe you look at your brokerage accounts every now and then, ok cool.

But you buy gas and groceries every couple of weeks and get a constant reminder of that, and it's ok fuck that.

I think it's because your income is your income. It's not really variable unless you are a sales guy on commission or a realtor on commission, etc.

Most people get an annual salary they know what it is, and they can set their watch to the bi-monthly number and that's how they budget. Maybe they get a 20% bonus at the end of the year if they are top bucket or whatever.

But that's my point. Your income is your fixed income no matter how well the economy is doing. Unless you are going to change jobs to give yourself a raise, the only thing a "good economy" meaning a growth in stock market and jobs (and a lot of jobs that middle/upper middle class workers don't care about like service industry jobs) does for the middle class is goose their 401k or savings. 

It's the expenses and costs that drive the heart burn and if those are growing, even if the economy is good, then how good does it really feel?

Again, these are just my own internal monologues and musings as I've struggled with squaring the circle that is, "This economy is good and I'm making more money, but why do I feel poorer in real life?"

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6 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

Your income is your fixed income no matter how well the economy is doing

Not really. It may be for various individuals but wage growth is a very measurable thing.

 

We give out annual raises to everyone in the company for example.

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3 minutes ago, G650 said:

Not really. It may be for various individuals but wage growth is a very measurable thing.

 

We give out annual raises to everyone in the company for example.

He is referring to paycheck to paycheck income and contrasting that with ballooning weekly household expenses.

To take it a step further I have long said that direct deposit of paychecks is great cover for tax policies.  No one really knows their paycheck gross.  The know their "annual compensation" and their deposit amount, but not the gross paycheck amount before taxes.

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4 minutes ago, G650 said:

Not really. It may be for various individuals but wage growth is a very measurable thing.

 

We give out annual raises to everyone in the company for example.

That's fair. I don't fall in that category, nor does anyone close to me, as the 3% merit raise that you used to be able to bank on is long gone and COLA raises aren't a thing in my area/industry, I guess.

So, to your point, great for people who do have organic wage growth in a good economy, but my point still stands as it pertains to myself and industry that your income is fixed. Unless of course you quit your job and give yourself a raise with a new job, but even in the "good economy" of the last 12 months, big companies and good jobs were laying people off and not as easy to find during the COVID years.

In fact, a lot of employers are having to wrestle with employees sticking around and it's messing with their organic attrition they have baked into their models. Which raises the question, why do people feel so insecure (job, financial, etc.) in a "good" economy? 

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2 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

He is referring to paycheck to paycheck income and contrasting that with ballooning weekly household expenses.

To take it a step further I have long said that direct deposit of paychecks is great cover for tax policies.  No one really knows their paycheck gross.  The know their "annual compensation" and their deposit amount, but not the gross paycheck amount before taxes.

I disagree with this. I know my gross, I know every penny deducted (and have a handy dandy pie chart to show me) and often compare pay period over pay period and year over year. Most HRIS softwares offer this, from Workday to ADP to whatever your company uses.

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2 minutes ago, G650 said:

Me too. In toto it generally rises at various intervals. Plus see his response below yours.

What do you mean it rises at various intervals? A bi-monthly payment pattern is fixed.

The only thing that changes is when/if you hit the social security threshold and have that stopped being deducted, which increases your take-home income and personal free cash flow.

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1 minute ago, BeardIP said:

What do you mean it rises at various intervals? A bi-monthly payment pattern is fixed.

The only thing that changes is when/if you hit the social security threshold and have that stopped being deducted.

You're not understanding what he's saying.  He's talking about periodic pay raises.

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Just now, BeardIP said:

What do you mean it rises at various intervals? A bi-monthly payment pattern is fixed.

The only thing that changes is when/if you hit the social security threshold and have that stopped being deducted.

Annual, quarterly, periodic review, there's many different intervals pay can rise.

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1 minute ago, G650 said:

Annual, quarterly, periodic review, there's many different intervals pay can rise.

 

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

You're not understanding what he's saying.  He's talking about periodic pay raises.

Got it.

I agree these one-off instances exist and ostensibly happen for some % of people, in all economies. Hopefully they are happening more for people in good economies like we are in now.

Generally speaking, the point remains as for most people annual income is a fixed asset.

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1 hour ago, dcbc said:

Today, an egg costs $.088.  Your friends sound . . . .  

I'm not seeing them that low, but your point stands.  Eggs are an incredibly cheap source of protein/calories.  About $1.50/lb.  Cheese?  Minimum $4/lb.  Turkey?  Probably $9/lb.  I wouldn't advocate eating the better part of a dozen eggs every day, but if you're THAT poor, you could do worse.

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2 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

I mean are the hens even seeing any of this price bump on their end?

My total understanding of it all comes from Loony Tunes and, thus, I believe it to be a rewarding process without a retirement plan.

 

Miss_Prissy.png

Edited by dcbc
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Anyways, it's a good discussion that I think will be ongoing because the problem of "we are factually in a good economy but I emotionally feel poor/doing worse" isn't a purely political issue, I think the problem is one that intersects with business/corporations and social standards and behaviors and politics and especially technology.

But as it pertains to this thread and Biden-- it's not great that a large swath of middle/upper middle class people feel this way. Though I don't think it will matter for 2024, Biden in a landslide.

 

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19 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

I disagree with this. I know my gross, I know every penny deducted (and have a handy dandy pie chart to show me) and often compare pay period over pay period and year over year. Most HRIS softwares offer this, from Workday to ADP to whatever your company uses.

We can disagree, but I would gladly take a bet a majority of paycheck earners couldn't on the spot tell you their gross pay, but without pause state their direct deposit.

 

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2 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

We can disagree, but I would gladly take a bet a majority of paycheck earners couldn't on the spot tell you their gross pay, but without pause state their direct deposit.

 

I think this comment, and @G650, are missing a big component. 

I'm not talking about the paycheck to paycheck people or hourly wage earners or lower middle class/median earners. I'm not talking about the rich either.

I'm talking about the middle to upper middle class people. Folks with the reasonable expectation, based on years of prior experience, that their income is good for ABC in commodities and luxuries and lifestyles in "worse economies" but are feeling that their income is now good for only XYZ (whereas XYZ is an inferior) in a "good economy". 

This is why I wanted to read that article as the title is a blanket statement. It's the same problem when people say "the economy is so great, we added 500,000 jobs" without the context that those jobs are not jobs that middle/upper middle class workers would ever work. They are restaurant jobs and service industry jobs, etc. It's cold consolation to someone like @Macanudowho has publicly documented his struggle to find his next middle/upper middle class job after being laid off when you tell him "this economy is fantastic and we are adding jobs like crazy! everyone who wants to work can!"

In that sense, wage growth for a huge volume of fast food workers and hotel lobby clerks does nothing for the middle/upper middle class, though it makes for a good headline and for a factually correct statement that on the whole wage growth is outpacing inflation. Drill down into the data and filter on the middle/upper middle class and I'd hypothesize it's different. 

In fact, I read yesterday that KPMG, EY and others are actively laying people off because of "wageflation" or the wage inflation that happened during COVID gold rush years. Lots of organizations overpaid and have been or are going to rightsize, but that will be in next years data of course.

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20 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

I think this comment, and @G650, are missing a big component. 

I'm not talking about the paycheck to paycheck people or hourly wage earners or lower middle class/median earners. I'm not talking about the rich either.

I'm talking about the middle to upper middle class people. Folks with the reasonable expectation, based on years of prior experience, that their income is good for ABC in commodities and luxuries and lifestyles in "worse economies" but are feeling that their income is now good for only XYZ (whereas XYZ is an inferior) in a "good economy". 

This is why I wanted to read that article as the title is a blanket statement. It's the same problem when people say "the economy is so great, we added 500,000 jobs" without the context that those jobs are not jobs that middle/upper middle class workers would ever work. They are restaurant jobs and service industry jobs, etc. It's cold consolation to someone like @Macanudowho has publicly documented his struggle to find his next middle/upper middle class job after being laid off when you tell him "this economy is fantastic and we are adding jobs like crazy! everyone who wants to work can!"

In that sense, wage growth for a huge volume of fast food workers and hotel lobby clerks does nothing for the middle/upper middle class, though it makes for a good headline and for a factually correct statement that on the whole wage growth is outpacing inflation. Drill down into the data and filter on the middle/upper middle class and I'd hypothesize it's different. 

In fact, I read yesterday that KPMG, EY and others are actively laying people off because of "wageflation" or the wage inflation that happened during COVID gold rush years. Lots of organizations overpaid and have been or are going to rightsize, but that will be in next years data of course.

This has been something that I think too many people overlook.   There are a shit ton of jobs for those making hourly wages and I'm not knocking those jobs at all.   There are certain sectors that are booming (healthcare is one that always has a ton of openings.)   It's depressing and yet funny to see job listings that want exorbitant amounts of experience and skills for mid/medium level management jobs.   

The consulting firms are going through a cyclical phase.  They use times like this to cull the "underperformers" who in some cases might be very good at their jobs but are edging up on the pay scale so they decide to clear house and bring in a new crop of fresh MBAs straight out of school.

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3 minutes ago, G650 said:

I hope not. Seeing hourlies finally make gains after decades of stagnation has been the most heartening part of this past year.

Definitely not.  Some of the jobs I have applied to have been hourly.   I'm not above clocking in/out.   A paycheck is a paycheck.

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2 minutes ago, G650 said:

I hope not. Seeing hourlies finally make gains after decades of stagnation has been the most heartening part of this past year.

We can all agree on this for sure.

But do you understand why/how a blanket statement of "the economy is great" when looking at the aggregate and not filtering in on your own demographic is misleading, at least emotionally if not nominatively?

And look-- at the end of the day this is an issue that is personal. Dare I say, even, self-centered. And that is the crux of the issue with the headlines about "The Economy is actually great, why are Biden's approval numbers falling or stagnant?" and the personal anecdotes that NiceGuyEddie shared upthread. 

But isn't that what voting, at some point, is? You vote for the best thing for your life. Sometimes that's a forward looking, holistic approach (foreign policy, not voting for a dictator who will disrupt the government, etc.) and sometimes when the two candidates are sane, that's a "kitchen table issues" approach (what politician is going to help ME out).

I mean, we routinely lambast the far right for actually NOT voting selfishly for their own interests.

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3 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

Dare I say, even, self-centered

 

You don't say

 

3 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

You vote for the best thing for your life.

 

Which may not be something as selfish and immediate.

 

I consider anyone that votes for the President on kitchen table issues to be barely sentient.

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I addressed that the most selfish thing is sometimes not as short-term and immediate. In fact, a lot of criticism has been put on too much selfish voting that creates an overly dependent underclass. Like I said, sometimes the most selfish thing is to forgo the quarter that is a distraction in front of you and walk a little further and wait a little longer to pick up the dollar.

Quote

I consider anyone that votes for the President on kitchen table issues to be barely sentient.

This is an interesting opinion. In privileged times (read: not with democracy at stake) I always thought this was the main thing that people elected presidents on. What do you think should be the priorities that people based their votes on?

And further, can you reconcile how "the far right are idiots and actively vote against their own self interests and things that would selfishly help them" (of which I agree with and think is a good legitimate criticism) with your stance that...people shouldn't vote for their self interests and things that would selfishly help them?

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9 minutes ago, G650 said:

 

You don't say

 

 

Which may not be something as selfish and immediate.

 

I consider anyone that votes for the President on kitchen table issues to be barely sentient.

Also a quick definition level set, according to Modern Republic https://www.modernrepublic.org/kitchen-table-issues#:

Kitchen Table Issues

Kitchen table issues are issues that are of concern to the average person that might be discussed by the family around the kitchen table.

Examples:

Jobs, taxes, social security, health care, the economy, etc.

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