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Israel-Hamas war thread


Brisketexan

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Israel/Hamas War adjacent is all the Ivy League drama and on the back of Harvard President resigning, thought this was a fascinating (long) read:
 

The FIRST gushing reply to that is from….General Mike Flynn. Sorry, if you’re on team “treasonous piece of shit,” you lose.
I don’t care what decent points might be buried in that missive. If Mike Flynn likes you, you’re a piece of shit too.
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Not sure what the play is. Reckless hostage deaths do not play well at home. You can also add it to the list of Hamas war crimes. 

Just Now (Israel Radio Second Channel):

 

Former Head of Israeli Military Intelligence, Amos Yadlin, says that the IDF know precisely where Hamas head, Yahya Sinwar, is located in Gaza but is inhibited from eliminating him because he has surrounded himself with many of the remaining living Israeli hostages who are serving as human shields.

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1 minute ago, Viper said:

Not sure what the play is. Reckless hostage deaths do not play well at home. You can also add it to the list of Hamas war crimes. 

The play is that he’s a dead man walking.  As soon as they can, they will kill him and everybody knows it.

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53 minutes ago, Parliament said:

He's the #1 Hamas el hefe?  Top dog?  I though he lived in Dubai.

Their political leadership lives in Qatar. Sinwar is a psychopathic murderer who is Hamas' chief terrorist. He was in an Israeli prison at one point -- sentenced for multiple murders -- but was released in a hostage exchange after Hamas captured an IDF soldier. (You'll never guess who was PM of Israel at the time.)

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40 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Their political leadership lives in Qatar. Sinwar is a psychopathic murderer who is Hamas' chief terrorist. He was in an Israeli prison at one point -- sentenced for multiple murders -- but was released in a hostage exchange after Hamas captured an IDF soldier. (You'll never guess who was PM of Israel at the time.)

Who's life was saved by Israel performing brain surgery on him. 

Worst. genociders. ever. 

Edited by Viper
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29 minutes ago, Parliament said:

The replies to that post are…exactly what you think they’d be.

Whataboutism ultimately leads to the justification of horror.   Only stupids don't realize that.   

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2 hours ago, Viper said:

Video out of 4 of the hostages. They don't appear to be treated as well as the elderly ones were

 

 

 

2 hours ago, nineliveslost said:

fucking disgusting. I want Hamas to be brutally killed and an example made.  Feed them to pigs. Fuck 'em

Daily mail has an article and pictures from the video I think. A released hostage described what she saw of the girls while they were all held hostage in gaza

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12936173/The-faces-girls-held-Hamas-families-make-desperate-plea-release-three-months-captured.html

'There were girls who spent 50 days and more alone,' she said. 'When they were sad, crying, their captors would stroke them and touch them. They described accounts of sexual abuse under gunpoint on a regular basis.

 

'Some of the girls were badly wounded and haven't been getting proper medical care. Gunshot wounds, even lost limbs. They said they can cope with the disability but not with the manner they were constantly violated.'

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Hamas airs video of Israeli hostages, says it will disclose their fate

JERUSALEM, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Hamas aired video on Sunday showing three Israeli hostages it is holding in Gaza in which they urged their government to stop the offensive against the Palestinian Islamist group and bring about their release, as both sides marked the 100th day of the war.

The undated 37-second video of Noa Argamani, 26, Yossi Sharabi, 53, and Itai Svirsky, 38, ended with the chyron: "Tomorrow we will inform you of their fate."

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-airs-video-israeli-hostages-says-will-disclose-their-fate-2024-01-14/

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5 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

The undated 37-second video of Noa Argamani, 26, Yossi Sharabi, 53, and Itai Svirsky, 38, ended with the chyron: "Tomorrow we will inform you of their fate."

Hamas going to Hamas - get as much terror/anguish out of a 37-second video clip as they can.

All it's doing is pissing off Israelis.

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2 more hostages killed

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-782292

Quote

The Hamas terror organization announced on Monday that hostages Yossi Sharabi, 53, and Itai Svirsky, 38, had been killed in captivity. Noa Argamani, 26, is reportedly still alive.

The update from the Gaza-based Islamist terror organization comes in a video featuring Argamani, where the 26-year-old reported the death of her fellow hostages.

Hamas has been teasing the announcement

The video followed Hamas's sequence of teased announcements, where they claimed that they would announce the fate of the three Israelis.

"I was located in a building," Argamani said in the Hamas video. "It was bombed by an IDF airstrike, an F16 fighter jet. Three rockets were fired. Two of the rockets exploded, and the other didn't. We were in the building with Al Qassam soldiers and three hostages: Myself, Noa Argamani, Itai Svirsky, and Yossef Sharabi.

"After the building we were in was hit, we were all buried under rubble. Al Qassam soldiers saved my life, and Itai's, unfortunately, we were not able to save Yossi's.

  Noa Argamani  (credit: Courtesy)Enlrage image Noa Argamani (credit: Courtesy)

"After many days...two nights, Itai and I were relocated to another place. While we were being transported, Itai was hit by an IDF airstrike. He did not survive."

Hamas has a track record of engaging in psychological warfare. 

"Itai Svirsky and Yossi Sharabi," Argamani added in the video. "They died because of our own IDF airstrikes. Stop this madness and bring us home to our families. While we are still alive, bring us home."

 

Svirsky's parents were killed the day he was kidnapped

Svirsky was kidnapped from Kibbutz Be'eri on October 7 during Hamas's rampage through the souther Israeli community. The 38-year-old had been staying with his mother, Orit, 70, at the time.

 

He and his mother had been hiding under blankets in the safe room when the terrorists stormed in and sprayed the room with bullets, killing Orit.

 

Itai’s father, Rafi, 71, was also murdered, along with his three golden retrievers.

 

Sharabi and his son, Oren, 13, had also been kidnapped from the Kibbutz. Oren was returned during a round of hostage/prisoner exchanges

 

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seems like this could be something big. The US consulate in Erbil was just struck (or almost struck) by a missile from Iran. Seems kind of surprising Iran is just jumping in directly instead of continuing to use their proxies which seems to have worked well for them the last 10-15 years.

 

 

"Targeting the US consulate in northern Iraq Ahed Iraqi Network reported that the American consulate in northern Iraq was targeted by a drone"

"The text of IRGC Notice No. 1: In response to the recent terrorist crimes of the enemies of Islamic Iran, the spy headquarters and the gathering of anti-Iranian terrorist groups in parts of the region were targeted by IRGC ballistic missiles in the middle of the night."

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2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

The gloves ain’t coming off. The response will be targeted and measured. We don’t want to be seen as escalating considering the current environment. If IRGC really did strike our consulate, it means the Anti-Israel crowd are trying to widen the affair to lessen our support. 

I agree with you. Unfortunately, these measured responses will lead to exactly what the administration wants to avoid, escalation. Iran doesn't give a shit about its proxies. Proportional attacks only embolden Iran. Lack of attacks on Iran proper emboldens as well. And interestingly enough, direct attacks on Iran have always served to strengthen the Iranian regime. OTOH, not directly attacking Iran and not taking the gloves off gives Iran confidence in continuing the attacks. Eventually, something is going to get hit.

Israel isn't getting out of Gaza anytime soon. Just as how our administration is misunderstanding Iran, Hamas is misunderstanding Israel. Israel isn't going to stop because Hamas killed some of its hostages. Israel will continue until Hamas is completely destroyed. The execution of Israeli citizens absolutely guarantees that Israel will be in Gaza even longer.

So the US is going to be faced with attacks from Iran's proxies even longer. Our hope is that nothing bad will happen to our concerns before Israel leaves. That doesn't seem like very good odds.

 

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The situation, wrt the hostages, is so ugly now that it clearly pains news organizations to spell out or political leaders to openly speak about-

1. Of the remaining hostages, a unknown number have been killed. Some by Israeli bombs, perhaps (all deaths will be blamed, by Hamas, on Israeli bombs). Others have been killed by neglect or murdered. 
2. Surviving hostages, at best, are in horrible conditions. At worst, they receive regular torture and sexual assault, or both. 
3. There is no central Gazan organization that can place where every hostage is. 
4. The surviving hostages that have been treated the worst are likely to be killed rather than released or traded. 
5. Israel, uncharacteristically, seems to be “writing off” the hostages, rather than centering strategy on their release. (Note- Pres. Biden says there are as many as six U.S. citizens held hostage). I think this is a surprise to Hamas and its Iranian sponsors. This means Israel feels no urgency to get the Gazan invasion over with quickly. 

Edited by statsman
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9 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

No, they are not. But the proxies are the ones usually shooting at the US Consulate, Embassy and troops.

So how and where do you hit them? Say they called in $6B in damage and take the money held by Qatar?

Before any strike on Iran proper, we will first do the international song and dance for transparency and de-escalation. “Look everyone, we were attacked by Iran. It was unprovoked. Egregious. US people died. We can’t not respond. We have to do something. We are going to do something. We are not escalating. This is totally not escalating. We will be reserved. It will be proportional. We are being the bigger person.” 

Then we take out an airfield.

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45 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Before any strike on Iran proper, we will first do the international song and dance for transparency and de-escalation. “Look everyone, we were attacked by Iran. It was unprovoked. Egregious. US people died. We can’t not respond. We have to do something. We are going to do something. We are not escalating. This is totally not escalating. We will be reserved. It will be proportional. We are being the bigger person.” 

Then we take out an airfield.

actually now we're saying they didn't target us at all so no need to retaliate. 

 

Iraq (well the Kurds) also arrested an Iranian national and charged him with supplying Iran the information for the attacks.

 

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2 hours ago, Viper said:

actually now we're saying they didn't target us at all so no need to retaliate. 

 

Iraq (well the Kurds) also arrested an Iranian national and charged him with supplying Iran the information for the attacks.

 

Someone isn't telling the truth. If Iran used a spy to target the Erbil, I find it pretty likely that Erbil was targeted.

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14 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Someone isn't telling the truth. If Iran used a spy to target the Erbil, I find it pretty likely that Erbil was targeted.

seems like we're going with Iran's explanation that they were just trying to strike "Mossad" agents that helped plan the ISIS attack. Of course there were plenty of actual ISIS targets to attack but they just happened to choose to send missiles to a target in Erbil right near by the US. So to me it looks like Iran is being intentionally reckless to see how much they can push the line. 

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The IDF looks to be doing a lot exploration and destruction of the tunnel system in Gaza lately. I think I saw one stat that they're 50-70% bigger than the London Underground 

 

 

 

 

It seems like Hamas' strategy is to hide in the tunnels with the hostages and wait for the world community to force Israel to leave. 

 

 

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On 1/16/2024 at 1:49 PM, statsman said:

5. Israel, uncharacteristically, seems to be “writing off” the hostages, rather than centering strategy on their release.

This really true? Israel has always placed extraordinary focus on growing and protecting its small population. Hell, one time they swapped 1,000 prisoners just to get 1 of their soldiers back. 

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30 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

This really true? Israel has always placed extraordinary focus on growing and protecting its small population. Hell, one time they swapped 1,000 prisoners just to get 1 of their soldiers back. 

Bibi is a different animal. It’s been pretty well documented that he’s more concerned with prosecuting this extremely brutal offensive.

Hamas made a serious miscalculation on the hostage front, as Israel appears to want to reset expectations and make sure the hostage taking calculus changes for Palestinian militants. 

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No matter what happens in the afterlife, in this world his face will appear crisply photoshopped with the shadows going the wrong way onto giant yellowish sheets of vinyl, crowded with 5 different fonts of angry proclamations, hanging on walls above dusty plazas.

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17 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Some cracks in the support for Hamas in Gaza— fewer Gazans approve of the October 7 attack than West Bank Palestinians.

 

It's been like this since the start of Israel's response (I have an early post in this thread with a poll) but these numbers show the Hamas support in Gaza shrinking. 

 

 

Edit: from November 

https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/topic/32512-israel-hamas-war-thread/?do=findComment&comment=5733123

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On 1/18/2024 at 1:52 PM, 52-80 said:

This really true? Israel has always placed extraordinary focus on growing and protecting its small population. Hell, one time they swapped 1,000 prisoners just to get 1 of their soldiers back. 

As I understand there's a split at the top of gov't. Netanyahu wants to annihilate Gaza and conduct Entebbe-style raids to try to get the hostages. Others at the top of Isreaeli government are saying it's time to negotiate and for Netanyahu to face the electorate.

The IDF has said it's killed 9,000 hamas soldiers and I believe they had ~20k to start with. Many are believed injured or to have escaped Gaza.

It's really quite something that Egypt, Jordan and Syria have not become involved.

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2 hours ago, Chopper said:

As I understand there's a split at the top of gov't. Netanyahu wants to annihilate Gaza and conduct Entebbe-style raids to try to get the hostages. Others at the top of Isreaeli government are saying it's time to negotiate and for Netanyahu to face the electorate.

The IDF has said it's killed 9,000 hamas soldiers and I believe they had ~20k to start with. Many are believed injured or to have escaped Gaza.

It's really quite something that Egypt, Jordan and Syria have not become involved.

It's because of Jordan and Egypt get involved.  The Israelis after they beat the shit out of them will force the Palestinians out into either Jordan or Egypt.  Whichever one fought them.  Jordan and Egypt don't want Palestinians just as much as Israel doesn't want them.  

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