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Posted
1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Anything's possible today, but I seriously doubt China and India are going to get smoochy smoochy anytime soon.  They fucking hate each other.  Actually, India hates everybody.

While Modi and Xi are meeting soon (first time since 2020 I believe), I think you are right. India is a self-centered opportunist and those relationships won’t be rebuilt overnight. But keep an eye on it (and BRICS getting closer in general).

Posted
2 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

Look, I get it. You read an economist article once every week or so. There are some of us who follow India and BJP specifically a lot more closely.

Is there a more artful way to be punitive with India here? Of course, especially since Trump has ruined the global discourse screeching “TARIFF” to everyone. But in this case, I actually don’t mind it and think it’s more signal than noise using it as a quasi-sanction in order to try and engage in behavior modification for Modi. Modi who, it should be noted, is every bit a nationalistic strongman (with just as much ambition) as the bad world leaders of fame today; Trump, Putin, Netanyahu.

So....is the best play with someone like Modi (of whom I am no big fan) to be a bully and use blunt instruments?  Or, are there other plays (flattery, giving him paths to an ego-boosting "win," etc.) that work better?   Come on, man.  Oh, and the take I shared is far from just something in the Economist - I just cited to it because I have a subscription there.  You can find similar discussions on Bloomberg, the WSJ, etc.  It's a pretty widely shared take right now.

Posted
Just now, Brisketexan said:

So....is the best play with someone like Modi (of whom I am no big fan) to be a bully and use blunt instruments?  Or, are there other plays (flattery, giving him paths to an ego-boosting "win," etc.) that work better?   Come on, man.  Oh, and the take I shared is far from just something in the Economist - I just cited to it because I have a subscription there.  You can find similar discussions on Bloomberg, the WSJ, etc.  It's a pretty widely shared take right now.

I was talking about how you mumbled something vaguely about our fertilizer purchases as an equivocation for India buying Russia fuel as full on contrarians.

It’s not just about detangling the mechanisms and slowly moving away from an entrenched supply chain when it comes to India and Russia. India actively ramped up and increased their spend with Russia huge starting around 2022 exactly because Russia needed to make deals and needed the money for their unjust war.

India has proven to be the self-interested opportunistic buyer of this fuel on purpose, and they (Modi) are actively giving the finger to the West and US when diplomatically asked to stop. Usually with a mushed mouth equivocation of “US and Europe used to buy a ton of Russian oil so yall are hypocrites and something something fertilizers”.

What is the best play for someone like Modi? I don’t know, but it’s been tried for 3 years. The elections last year signaled hes lost some support in parts of the country and, while not a referendum, definitely gave him and his party a reality check. Maybe hitting him/India in the pocket books can further erode some of support internally if it translates to economic downturn. Big if, considering I think US imports is only 20% of Indian trade math.

Posted
On 8/27/2025 at 10:05 AM, bolverk said:

 

Tax rates on goods from our biggest trade partners are:

  • Canada: 35%
  • Mexico: 25%

The Canada and Mexico rates are somewhat misleading. If the goods qualify as Canadian or Mexican in origin under the USMCA, then there is no tariff. I’m not certain about the application of the special steel/aluminum tariffs to Canada/Mexico though.

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Posted

I did not catch the name of the guy on Bloomberg last night driving home from work around 7:45 pm, but the man was definitely onboard the “stagflation pain is a-coming” train.

He did say that he does not think the tariff pain will really hit till second quarter 2026.    It just feels like the market will go up and Wall Street will keep dancing on the deck of the Titanic.    

I told my adult kids and several of my friends who don’t watch the news at all that that they would be well-served to immediately go into asset preservation mode, NOT undertake new debt, keep your old car and pay off every credit card now in case you lose your job soon - and to grow your emergency savings as much as possible.     I’d rather be a mistaken old crank if I’m wrong than see people I like and love suffer more next year if that could have been avoided some if they’d taken different steps this year

 

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Posted
25 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

The Canada and Mexico rates are somewhat misleading. If the goods qualify as Canadian or Mexican in origin under the USMCA, then there is no tariff. I’m not certain about the application of the special steel/aluminum tariffs to Canada/Mexico though.

 

Thanks. I knew that there were carve-outs, but wasn't sure of the exceptions. Just did a search and, while this article is from May and can't speak to today's rates, it's a good source for where US O&G gets its steel from.

https://taxfoundation.org/blog/american-energy-tariffs-oil-gas/

 image.thumb.png.0e0c24a80a72cd154c22a76de82e5a47.png

image.thumb.png.daa88ef47814c59bc877d0dda28e7248.png

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