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Posted
1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Anything's possible today, but I seriously doubt China and India are going to get smoochy smoochy anytime soon.  They fucking hate each other.  Actually, India hates everybody.

While Modi and Xi are meeting soon (first time since 2020 I believe), I think you are right. India is a self-centered opportunist and those relationships won’t be rebuilt overnight. But keep an eye on it (and BRICS getting closer in general).

Posted
2 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

Look, I get it. You read an economist article once every week or so. There are some of us who follow India and BJP specifically a lot more closely.

Is there a more artful way to be punitive with India here? Of course, especially since Trump has ruined the global discourse screeching “TARIFF” to everyone. But in this case, I actually don’t mind it and think it’s more signal than noise using it as a quasi-sanction in order to try and engage in behavior modification for Modi. Modi who, it should be noted, is every bit a nationalistic strongman (with just as much ambition) as the bad world leaders of fame today; Trump, Putin, Netanyahu.

So....is the best play with someone like Modi (of whom I am no big fan) to be a bully and use blunt instruments?  Or, are there other plays (flattery, giving him paths to an ego-boosting "win," etc.) that work better?   Come on, man.  Oh, and the take I shared is far from just something in the Economist - I just cited to it because I have a subscription there.  You can find similar discussions on Bloomberg, the WSJ, etc.  It's a pretty widely shared take right now.

Posted
Just now, Brisketexan said:

So....is the best play with someone like Modi (of whom I am no big fan) to be a bully and use blunt instruments?  Or, are there other plays (flattery, giving him paths to an ego-boosting "win," etc.) that work better?   Come on, man.  Oh, and the take I shared is far from just something in the Economist - I just cited to it because I have a subscription there.  You can find similar discussions on Bloomberg, the WSJ, etc.  It's a pretty widely shared take right now.

I was talking about how you mumbled something vaguely about our fertilizer purchases as an equivocation for India buying Russia fuel as full on contrarians.

It’s not just about detangling the mechanisms and slowly moving away from an entrenched supply chain when it comes to India and Russia. India actively ramped up and increased their spend with Russia huge starting around 2022 exactly because Russia needed to make deals and needed the money for their unjust war.

India has proven to be the self-interested opportunistic buyer of this fuel on purpose, and they (Modi) are actively giving the finger to the West and US when diplomatically asked to stop. Usually with a mushed mouth equivocation of “US and Europe used to buy a ton of Russian oil so yall are hypocrites and something something fertilizers”.

What is the best play for someone like Modi? I don’t know, but it’s been tried for 3 years. The elections last year signaled hes lost some support in parts of the country and, while not a referendum, definitely gave him and his party a reality check. Maybe hitting him/India in the pocket books can further erode some of support internally if it translates to economic downturn. Big if, considering I think US imports is only 20% of Indian trade math.

Posted
On 8/27/2025 at 10:05 AM, bolverk said:

 

Tax rates on goods from our biggest trade partners are:

  • Canada: 35%
  • Mexico: 25%

The Canada and Mexico rates are somewhat misleading. If the goods qualify as Canadian or Mexican in origin under the USMCA, then there is no tariff. I’m not certain about the application of the special steel/aluminum tariffs to Canada/Mexico though.

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Posted

I did not catch the name of the guy on Bloomberg last night driving home from work around 7:45 pm, but the man was definitely onboard the “stagflation pain is a-coming” train.

He did say that he does not think the tariff pain will really hit till second quarter 2026.    It just feels like the market will go up and Wall Street will keep dancing on the deck of the Titanic.    

I told my adult kids and several of my friends who don’t watch the news at all that that they would be well-served to immediately go into asset preservation mode, NOT undertake new debt, keep your old car and pay off every credit card now in case you lose your job soon - and to grow your emergency savings as much as possible.     I’d rather be a mistaken old crank if I’m wrong than see people I like and love suffer more next year if that could have been avoided some if they’d taken different steps this year

 

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Posted
25 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

The Canada and Mexico rates are somewhat misleading. If the goods qualify as Canadian or Mexican in origin under the USMCA, then there is no tariff. I’m not certain about the application of the special steel/aluminum tariffs to Canada/Mexico though.

 

Thanks. I knew that there were carve-outs, but wasn't sure of the exceptions. Just did a search and, while this article is from May and can't speak to today's rates, it's a good source for where US O&G gets its steel from.

https://taxfoundation.org/blog/american-energy-tariffs-oil-gas/

 image.thumb.png.0e0c24a80a72cd154c22a76de82e5a47.png

image.thumb.png.daa88ef47814c59bc877d0dda28e7248.png

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Vegas64 said:

I was talking about how you mumbled something vaguely about our fertilizer purchases as an equivocation for India buying Russia fuel as full on contrarians.

It’s not just about detangling the mechanisms and slowly moving away from an entrenched supply chain when it comes to India and Russia. India actively ramped up and increased their spend with Russia huge starting around 2022 exactly because Russia needed to make deals and needed the money for their unjust war.

India has proven to be the self-interested opportunistic buyer of this fuel on purpose, and they (Modi) are actively giving the finger to the West and US when diplomatically asked to stop. Usually with a mushed mouth equivocation of “US and Europe used to buy a ton of Russian oil so yall are hypocrites and something something fertilizers”.

What is the best play for someone like Modi? I don’t know, but it’s been tried for 3 years. The elections last year signaled hes lost some support in parts of the country and, while not a referendum, definitely gave him and his party a reality check. Maybe hitting him/India in the pocket books can further erode some of support internally if it translates to economic downturn. Big if, considering I think US imports is only 20% of Indian trade math.

Anyways @Brisketexan, now you have a disgruntled India giving lipservice to China (and visa versa) because India is mad at being called to the carpet for their Russian fuel strategy. 

Not sure anything you did was going to change their selfishness and countries like India will only listen to dollars and cents. 

Modi <> Xi are meeting Sept 1:

Quote

In further sign of warming ties, following Wang’s visit, direct flights from India to mainland China, which had been suspended since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, are set to resume. Both sides have agreed to reopen border trade at three designated trading points.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/29/china-india-modi-xi-sco-meeting-relations.html

Edited by Vegas64
Posted

IMG_2692.gif.1aabfe025569b07604d8d9a3806683d6.gif

Per Trump: this ruling is the end of America.  

The “dangerous, diplomatic embarrassment” is the key take away from a couple posts above.   He has been on a narcissist’s high, controlling the world’s economy with his whims every day.    They took away his new toy.  He will have an epic tantrum.

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Posted (edited)

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/appeals-court-rejects-trumps-global-tariffs-aae2dc99?mod=hp_lead_pos1

Quote

 

Ahead of the decision, top lawyers for the Trump administration sent the appeals court a letter warning that ruling against the president would have “catastrophic consequences,” pointing to agreements reached with the European Union, Indonesia, the Philippines and Japan. Even if the court voided the tariffs, that decision should be put on hold, they said.

“Our country would not be able to pay back the trillions of dollars that other countries have already committed to pay, which could lead to financial ruin,” they wrote. “The President believes that a forced dissolution of the agreements could lead to a 1929-style result.”

 

Good Lord, you guys.

Edited by Parliament
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Posted
On 8/24/2025 at 3:06 PM, miguelito said:

Washington state has rain forests,but they're probably not suitable for growing coffee.

I was in Humboldt County, California last month visiting several Redwood forest preserves, and learned that climate change is reducing the mist that is ever present on the west side of the coastal mountain ranges where redwoods are found.   It seems they get most of their water (despite the abundant rainfall), from the fog and mist.  Climate changed could kill them all if they can no longer grow in fog.

Avenue of the Giants was cool though.

 

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Posted
24 minutes ago, Parliament said:

“Our country would not be able to pay back the trillions of dollars that other countries have already committed to pay, which could lead to financial ruin,” they wrote. “The President believes that a forced dissolution of the agreements could lead to a 1929-style result.”

We are having that anyway, because Trump caused it with his bullshit tariffs. Now when that happens, Trump will tell Cletus that it was the socialist/communist/liberals fault.

And nobody will bet me on this. 

 

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Posted
44 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Per Trump: this ruling is the end of America.  

 

That phrase loses its punch when he says that about every court case he loses

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

I was in Humboldt County, California last month visiting several Redwood forest preserves, and learned that climate change is reducing the mist that is ever present on the west side of the coastal mountain ranges where redwoods are found.   It seems they get most of their water (despite the abundant rainfall), from the fog and mist.  Climate changed could kill them all if they can no longer grow in fog.

Avenue of the Giants was cool though.

 

I took that trip too. It's amazing up there. 

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Posted
On 8/30/2025 at 1:10 AM, royiv said:

IMG_2362.gif.76e23614100df2413488be958ce6534b.gif

Good.   You need the tariffs to continue, because the pain of the tariffs is perhaps the only thing that   will wake up “never voters” and “never pay attentions” and maybe make them vote the right way one time. 

The pain has to be on Trump’s watch - and it has to be due to Trump’s actions.   The body politic needs severe pain so we can heal politically.   

I’m on %teamstagflation, #teamhealthcrisis.       It may be the only thing that keeps us from a white Christian theology autocracy future. 

On a completely unrelated side-note, it is fun to shoot at paper targets.  So go buy a lot of ammunition and an AR or 5 so the whole family can participate in marksmanship competitions. and don’t forget the little ones!

IMG_5146.thumb.png.0ba343cf8eac079ab6f1bc9b63c8c252.png

 

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Posted (edited)

And speaking of tariffs, I was on Walmart’s site, and like it does it, reminds me of all the things I once upon a time put in the cart and never bought. One was a $39 countertop icemaker. You know, one of those that makes nine bullet ice cubes every six minutes..

I thought to myself, you should’ve bought that (hurricane season and all).

So I went to Walmart and found that it was $37. 

IMG_5152.thumb.png.5be4dae10e5d90a37fbdf31c09cb4055.png

 

And when I went to pay, I noticed that the”Seller” (China) added $32 for “seller shipping”.    

Cool, cool, cool. Cletus and Lurleen won’t mind that little tariff tidbit added to their purchase.    

It slightly annoys me that they don’t call it a tariff, but seller shipping. 

They should call it the Trump tariff tax

Did. Not. Buy.

IMG_5151.thumb.png.4a702cee4d463092c3ca2e90742e6647.png

Edited by Gatorubet
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Posted
57 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Maybe it’s the hefty, giant national sales tax they’ve been touting as a replacement for the income tax.

Pa-Pa might just grumble a bit if fancy new HDTV he's been eyeing is $100 more than it was a few months ago.

Posted

Call with a client this morning.  Tariff conversation came up.  He described manufacturing operations in a Texas plant most likely moving to the ME because the tariffs are killing them. 

Winning? 

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Posted
1 minute ago, texasdago said:

Call with a client this morning.  Tariff conversation came up.  He described manufacturing operations in a Texas plant most likely moving to the ME because the tariffs are killing them. 

Winning? 

Tariffs are on imported goods.  So he's moving their manufacturing overseas where goods for US clients would have to be imported?  Or is he building shit here and shipping it out?

I don't get it.

Posted
1 hour ago, texasdago said:

Call with a client this morning.  Tariff conversation came up.  He described manufacturing operations in a Texas plant most likely moving to the ME because the tariffs are killing them. 

Winning? 

 

37 minutes ago, texasdago said:

He works for a Fortune 500 company so a big job producer.  Goods manufactured here and shipped overseas are subject to a retaliatory tariff.  Build them overseas to ship them elsewhere overseas and there are no tariffs... cost stays low, product stays competitively priced on the market.

Lordy, I imagine some of the big US equipment makers like NOV are having a real shitty time

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Posted
14 minutes ago, Captainant said:

 

Lordy, I imagine some of the big US equipment makers like NOV are having a real shitty time

Well, or look at a company like Tenaris that makes tubular products in plants in Texas or Arkansas... shipments are down to projects in Brazil so what's to stop them from shifting production to Veracruz from Texas?  

Posted (edited)

Even if manufacturing comes back, how much is automated?  Good time to invest in manufacturing robots.  

So when Apple says they will move manufacturing to the US, how many jobs will they provide?  

https://www.computerworld.com/article/4049837/apples-going-to-automate-all-the-iphone-factories.html

I'm sure all will go well with automation and AI, though.

https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/ai-jobs-white-collar-unemployment-anthropic

Edited by texasdago
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Posted
5 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Even if manufacturing comes back, how much is automated?  Good time to invest in manufacturing robots.  

So when Apple says they will move manufacturing to the US, how many jobs will they provide?  

https://www.computerworld.com/article/4049837/apples-going-to-automate-all-the-iphone-factories.html

I'm sure all will go well with automation and AI, though.

https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/ai-jobs-white-collar-unemployment-anthropic

We're busy placing tariffs on shoes and such made in Vietnam.  So, we're going to bring back....low-wage shoe-sewing jobs.

We're also busy placing tariffs on coffee, and bananas, and other tropical crops, which we grow....functionally none of here in the US.  But I guess we're gonna make coffee plantations in Iowa great again or something?

Posted
44 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

We're busy placing tariffs on shoes and such made in Vietnam.  So, we're going to bring back....low-wage shoe-sewing jobs.

We're also busy placing tariffs on coffee, and bananas, and other tropical crops, which we grow....functionally none of here in the US.  But I guess we're gonna make coffee plantations in Iowa great again or something?

 

45 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

We're busy placing tariffs on shoes and such made in Vietnam.  So, we're going to bring back....low-wage shoe-sewing jobs.

We're also busy placing tariffs on coffee, and bananas, and other tropical crops, which we grow....functionally none of here in the US.  But I guess we're gonna make coffee plantations in Iowa great again or something?

The future is bright, gentlemen!  Like a phoenix from the ashes, the US garment industry will rise again!

In this June 28, 1944, file photo, garment workers sew clothing at a loft factory in New York. Hundreds of thousands of garment workers once toiled in the sweaty, elbow-to-elbow workshops of midtown Manhattan before the whirring of sewing machines was mostly silenced by foreign competition. But a group of New Yorkers - manufacturers, landlords, designers, politicians - want to preserve some of the bustling sewing scene by zoning the neighborhood for at least 300,000 square feet of garment workshops now serving higher-end designers.

large-factory-.jpg

 

Posted
10 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

We're busy placing tariffs on shoes and such made in Vietnam.  So, we're going to bring back....low-wage shoe-sewing jobs.

We're also busy placing tariffs on coffee, and bananas, and other tropical crops, which we grow....functionally none of here in the US.  But I guess we're gonna make coffee plantations in Iowa great again or something?

Meanwhile, continuing the conversation from last week, Modi met with...checks notes...Putin and Xi today in a message to the West/US of "Even with your 50% tariff we are going to buy Russia gas because to the little extent we actually care about Ukraine and generally Europe and the West, it's like 50 pegs below my own self-interest".

What do you do with such a leader and country? We've tried the 50% tariff. Now what?

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Posted
8 hours ago, Vegas64 said:

Meanwhile, continuing the conversation from last week, Modi met with...checks notes...Putin and Xi today in a message to the West/US of "Even with your 50% tariff we are going to buy Russia gas because to the little extent we actually care about Ukraine and generally Europe and the West, it's like 50 pegs below my own self-interest".

What do you do with such a leader and country? We've tried the 50% tariff. Now what?

I dunno....maybe DON'T pursue policies that encourage "flexible" nations to openly and aggressively align with Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran?

India is going to act in its self-interest (hint: all nation states do and will).  Based on its size, geography, history, and pre-existing interests and relationships, India is not likely to become a 100% "yes Mr. American boss, whatever you say boss" state anytime soon.  So, maybe take approaches that will get India doing as much of what we like as possible.  And realize a good bit of that is a long game.  As in not just months/years, but decades.

But nope.  We'll just walk into the room, bluster, throw a punch, and then act surprised when the other party leaves the room and disengages with us, ESPECIALLY when there is a tempting alternative right next door.  We used a threat (tariff) with a financial downside that wasn't as significant as the financial upside of the alternative (running into the arms of Russian petroleum products, purchased at a discount).  If you say "if you don't do what I want, I'm gonna charge $5 extra to you," and I have an alternative that says "come over here and do business with me, and I'll save you $7," well.....people all over the world can do math.  It would be smart to run those numbers BEFORE you do the bully routine.  But we don't do smart.  Not anymore, at least.

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Posted
On 9/3/2025 at 12:09 AM, Vegas64 said:

Meanwhile, continuing the conversation from last week, Modi met with...checks notes...Putin and Xi today in a message to the West/US of "Even with your 50% tariff we are going to buy Russia gas because to the little extent we actually care about Ukraine and generally Europe and the West, it's like 50 pegs below my own self-interest".

What do you do with such a leader and country? We've tried the 50% tariff. Now what?

Bomb they ass.

Posted

Yeah, I mean, just to be clear, our current national policy is plainly stated:

1) Let's use extensive tariffs

2) To return us to "the gilded age."

And the facts on the gilded age aren't difficult, and are not and have not ever been subject to much debate:

1) The tiny class of the super-wealthy became wealthy beyond measure

2) Working class families experienced a staggeringly high poverty rate

 

If you wanted to implement a plan to "make 1/3 of Americans brutally poor again," it would look almost exactly like the mechanisms being put in place right now, with insane tariffs as the cornerstone.

And again, this is being sold to the american people as a good thing....and they are fucking BUYING IT.  We are happily marching into our own destruction, for the benefit of a handful of oligarchs.  We are too stupid to continue as a nation.

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Posted

Hey now, you forget 3) The government was bought by the richest and policy was dictated by who had the most money 

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, elfenix said:

The enshittified gilded age

 

Also, someone needs to ask, "Who's we in this scenario?  Do you mean the JP Morgans, the Cornelius Vanderbilts, the JD Rockefellers?  How did the working man, woman and child fit into this?  Are you trying to sell us some more trickle down'?

Also probably worth pointing out that the Fed was created at least partially in response to the machinations of JP Morgan.  By most accounts, I think he did right by the country, while self-enriching, but no single private person should wield that control over our economy.

Edited by TwiceHorn
Posted
1 minute ago, TwiceHorn said:

Also, someone needs to ask, "Who's we in this scenario?  Do you mean the JP Morgans, the Cornelius Vanderbilts, the JD Rockefellers?  How did the working man, woman and child fit into this?  Are you trying to sell us some more trickle down'?

Nobody needs to ask that question.  We know the answer.  There are two groups of people in the new gilded age scenarios: Billionaires who make more billions, and literally everyone else getting completely fucked and seeing their income and quality of life go into the shitter.

This economic approach puts families in the poor house and children in the coal mines.  It's pure shit.  

Posted
3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Nobody needs to ask that question.  We know the answer.  There are two groups of people in the new gilded age scenarios: Billionaires who make more billions, and literally everyone else getting completely fucked and seeing their income and quality of life go into the shitter.

This economic approach puts families in the poor house and children in the coal mines.  It's pure shit.  

Yeah "we" do.  A lot of people obviously don't.

Posted
Just now, TwiceHorn said:

Yeah "we" do.  A lot of people obviously don't.

They get it.  They just don't care.  Because what matters is that some "other" get shit on even WORSE than they do.

We are governed by a majority that is just fine with being smothered under 2,000 pounds of shit, so long as the people they hate get covered with at least 2,001 pounds of shit.

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