Jump to content

Early Voting 2018 thread of doom

Pancho

By Pancho
in Cloak Room

 Share

Recommended Posts

SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

Posted
Posted
Just now, High Plains Drifter said:

You are going to have to explain that one to me.

 

Anyway, just came in to say I voted straight ticket for the time in my life yesterday. And no, it wasn't straight R.

+rep, which I cannot give more of.

 

 

 

(and the gif above was joshing about your answering a 3 day old question)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 750
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

BigOrange1
BigOrange1

voted on my way home from work.  only had to wait about 20 minutes.  voted against every republican on the ballot and in races where they were unopposed, i left it blank.   fuck them for what the

BrickHorn
BrickHorn

You, sir, are a true hero of the Fourth Reich.

Longhorn_Fan68
Longhorn_Fan68

Not me, man. As I've said before, I'm going through the entire ballot and actively voting against every R I see. If it's an L next to their name and no one else, they get my vote. My freedom boner wil

Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13388

Posted
Posted

Day 11 (Thursday) early voting totals aka Almost Over

SRI9WcNZ_o.jpg

  • Rebounded from bad Halloween totals to match close to Monday's totals
  • Border counties performing poorly with turnout as before
  • Friday's totals should easily put us over 4m votes for these 16 counties and most likely over 4.1m
  • Relatively speaking the two big changes from 2014 and 2016 are El Paso voting more and Montgomery voting less.  Harris is close to being as unengaged as Montgomery.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
gmr548

gmr548 16427

Posted
Posted
Day 11 (Thursday) early voting totals aka Almost Over
SRI9WcNZ_o.jpg
  • Rebounded from bad Halloween totals to match close to Monday's totals
  • Border counties performing poorly with turnout as before
  • Friday's totals should easily put us over 4m votes for these 16 counties and most likely over 4.1m
  • Relatively speaking the two big changes from 2014 and 2016 are El Paso voting more and Montgomery voting less.  Harris is close to being as unengaged as Montgomery.
 
The optimist in me wants to think that means D turnout in Harris is solid, along the lines of Travis and Dallas Counties which have a similar lean, while the areas that would vote more in line with Montgomery - ie suburban shitholes, are lagging.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites
sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Day 11 (Thursday) early voting totals aka Almost Over

SRI9WcNZ_o.jpg

  • Rebounded from bad Halloween totals to match close to Monday's totals
  • Border counties performing poorly with turnout as before
  • Friday's totals should easily put us over 4m votes for these 16 counties and most likely over 4.1m
  • Relatively speaking the two big changes from 2014 and 2016 are El Paso voting more and Montgomery voting less.  Harris is close to being as unengaged as Montgomery.

 

Looks like  the highest daily turnout was in Hays, Travis and a bunch of 'burbs - mostly DFW.  I've got Denton, Ft Bend, Collin, Williamson, Tarrant, Parker and Ellis in that order.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

The optimist in me wants to think that means D turnout in Harris is solid, along the lines of Travis and Dallas Counties which have a similar lean, while the areas that would vote more in line with Montgomery - ie suburban shitholes, are lagging.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

You gotta hope so.  Those Harris numbers are AIDS.  I guess we figured out it wasn't just the shorter hours of week 1.  They've been laggards the whole time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
F250

F250 28623

Posted
Posted

Comal county like everywhere else had a higher EV turnout than usual. I rolled into the location in Bulverde thinking I would be in and out. I was wrong.

There were a shit ton of people in aggy gear in line, matching hats and shirts. I'm curious if it was a coordinated effort. Hard to tell with those bozos.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, F250 said:

Comal county like everywhere else had a higher EV turnout than usual. I rolled into the location in Bulverde thinking I would be in and out. I was wrong.

There were a shit ton of people in aggy gear in line, matching hats and shirts. I'm curious if it was a coordinated effort. Hard to tell with those bozos.

I know right?  Spontaneous regimentation seems to be genetic with that bunch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
F250

F250 28623

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

I know right?  Spontaneous regimentation seems to be genetic with that bunch.

It really does. I'm not sure if they are hardwired during fish camp or there is some kind of daily secret code released by Texags. "Today is Saturday, jorts and sandals with a matching aggy shirt and hat will be worn today. Remember to display SEC on the back of your truck next to the Yeti sticker. The use of tsip must be used at least 3 times today."

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Tarrant Co walk in vote was 51,630 today.  Might be a few mail ballots to add but total EV turnout in Tarrant 41.4% or slightly higher.

High Tarrant County turnout is bad for Beto. I live here. Most people around here just hit straight ticket repub without thinking about it or caring whose really on the ballot. I wish people wouldn’t vote for potty Patrick or ken “indictment” Paxton at least.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, F250 said:

Yeah, I would like to see some actual numbers behind these percentages.


18-29 year olds 9.9% of EV this year.  It's a big uptick from 2014, when they were 4.6%.  I don't have comp data for 2016 though.

 

Edited by sushihorn
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32660

Posted
Posted (edited)

evest11-2.png

11/2 is estimated based on the counties with totals on their websites. Missing from the data right now are Cameron, Dallas, El Paso, Galveston, and Travis.

This would put us at a total of 3,801,086 in-person early votes in these 15 counties. 2014 had 1,504,076 and 2016 had 4,186,107.

Edited by Huckleberry
Link to comment
Share on other sites
RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

High Tarrant County turnout is bad for Beto. I live here. Most people around here just hit straight ticket repub without thinking about it or caring whose really on the ballot. I wish people wouldn’t vote for potty Patrick or ken “indictment” Paxton at least.

Tarrant went 51.7% for Trump by 57,000 votes after going 57.1% for Romney. With that trend and other trends away from Republicans, Beto is going to win Tarrant.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13388

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

evest11-2.png

11/2 is estimated based on the counties with totals on their websites. Missing from the data right now are Cameron, Dallas, El Paso, Galveston, and Travis.

This would put us at a total of 3,801,086 in-person early votes in these 15 counties. 2014 had 1,504,076 and 2016 had 4,186,107.

If Texas voters are tracking to 2016 behavior in terms of city/rural breakdown and early/election day voting pct, this takes us just shy of 7.6m voting this year.    Even outlier estimates had us at 7m at the highest.   

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bolverk

bolverk 29261

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, RayDog said:

Tarrant went 51.7% for Trump by 57,000 votes after going 57.1% for Romney. With that trend and other trends away from Republicans, Beto is going to win Tarrant.

That's what I've been saying since far up thread. Based on previous patterns, Beto should retain all of Hillary's counties and pick up Hays, Williamson, and Tarrant. That would make Texas a certifiably purple state. If he also picks up Collin, then he wins this thing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
gmr548

gmr548 16427

Posted
Posted

Tarrant is a microcosm of the state as a whole - big urban and suburban population but non trivial rural/semi rural population as well. If Beto wins there and Williamson, both of which have tracked statewide margins pretty closely the past few election cycles, he has a great chance. That means he has flipped or nearly flipped the suburbs.

I just have to think R+9 in both is too much ground to make up. High turnout is better than low though. Every additional voter coming out of the woodwork in those places is likely to be a D/Independent as opposed to a dedicated Republican who consistently votes there already.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites
sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

Posted
Posted

Impressive turnout on the final day of EV.  One day turnout for Friday was over 5% of all registered voters in Tarrant, Travis, Collin, Denton, Ft Bend, Williamson, Hays, Ellis and Parker counties.  Dallas leading the big urban counties with 4.56% but Harris and Bexar were below the top 30 avg (4.41%) at 4.27% and 4.00% respectively.

Other than Cameron, EVERY county had EV turnout that was at least 80% of 2016's on Friday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13388

Posted
Posted

Last day in the books for my chart.

80Z0EMUX_o.jpg

Below is my back of the envelope state of the race:

  • Added a scenario, on the far right,  if '18 voters duplicated the Trump/Hillary percentages.   
  • With that, Beto is up 318K with early votes in the top 16 counties
  • With Election Day results, let's raise that to 415K.
  • One big assumption (guess) is that Cruz will win the smaller counties by 1.1m.  Trump won them by 1.3m.  I lowered it due to turnout.
  • With that, Beto needs to have converted 2016 voters/found new voters in order to find a net 700K from somewhere.

I think the last element is decent possibility.  Do we really think that Beto is doing the same or worse than Hillary?   Trump isn't popular.  Women supposedly have voted 10 points higher than men.  Higher percentage of young voters. Apathy for Cruz by many. Texas hasn't seen statewide enthusiasm like this in decades (ever?)  Beto raised millions from everyday Texans.  Thousands of Beto supporters are knocking on doors.  Culberson and Sessions are tied in their districts.   Across the country, the GOP looks to be trending down...

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted

Beto gets 200,000 to 250,000 from greens and never Trump one time libertarians.

He gets 200,000 in rural counties when Cruz polls closer to Romney than Trump.

Harris plus 90,000 compared to Clinton/Trump, Dallas 60,000, Tarrant 60,000, Bexar 30,000, Travis 40,000, Collin 30,000, Denton 25,000, Fort Bend 25,000, Montgomery 30,000, etc...

It all adds up to a Beto win.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8072

Posted
Posted
On ‎11‎/‎3‎/‎2018 at 2:40 PM, RayDog said:

Beto gets 200,000 to 250,000 from greens and never Trump one time libertarians.

He gets 200,000 in rural counties when Cruz polls closer to Romney than Trump.

Harris plus 90,000 compared to Clinton/Trump, Dallas 60,000, Tarrant 60,000, Bexar 30,000, Travis 40,000, Collin 30,000, Denton 25,000, Fort Bend 25,000, Montgomery 30,000, etc...

It all adds up to a Beto win.

You need to stop doing this

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...