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Early Voting 2018 thread of doom


Pancho

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Just now, High Plains Drifter said:

You are going to have to explain that one to me.

 

Anyway, just came in to say I voted straight ticket for the time in my life yesterday. And no, it wasn't straight R.

+rep, which I cannot give more of.

 

 

 

(and the gif above was joshing about your answering a 3 day old question)

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Day 11 (Thursday) early voting totals aka Almost Over

SRI9WcNZ_o.jpg

  • Rebounded from bad Halloween totals to match close to Monday's totals
  • Border counties performing poorly with turnout as before
  • Friday's totals should easily put us over 4m votes for these 16 counties and most likely over 4.1m
  • Relatively speaking the two big changes from 2014 and 2016 are El Paso voting more and Montgomery voting less.  Harris is close to being as unengaged as Montgomery.

 

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Day 11 (Thursday) early voting totals aka Almost Over
SRI9WcNZ_o.jpg
  • Rebounded from bad Halloween totals to match close to Monday's totals
  • Border counties performing poorly with turnout as before
  • Friday's totals should easily put us over 4m votes for these 16 counties and most likely over 4.1m
  • Relatively speaking the two big changes from 2014 and 2016 are El Paso voting more and Montgomery voting less.  Harris is close to being as unengaged as Montgomery.
 
The optimist in me wants to think that means D turnout in Harris is solid, along the lines of Travis and Dallas Counties which have a similar lean, while the areas that would vote more in line with Montgomery - ie suburban shitholes, are lagging.

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45 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Day 11 (Thursday) early voting totals aka Almost Over

SRI9WcNZ_o.jpg

  • Rebounded from bad Halloween totals to match close to Monday's totals
  • Border counties performing poorly with turnout as before
  • Friday's totals should easily put us over 4m votes for these 16 counties and most likely over 4.1m
  • Relatively speaking the two big changes from 2014 and 2016 are El Paso voting more and Montgomery voting less.  Harris is close to being as unengaged as Montgomery.

 

Looks like  the highest daily turnout was in Hays, Travis and a bunch of 'burbs - mostly DFW.  I've got Denton, Ft Bend, Collin, Williamson, Tarrant, Parker and Ellis in that order.

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49 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

The optimist in me wants to think that means D turnout in Harris is solid, along the lines of Travis and Dallas Counties which have a similar lean, while the areas that would vote more in line with Montgomery - ie suburban shitholes, are lagging.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

You gotta hope so.  Those Harris numbers are AIDS.  I guess we figured out it wasn't just the shorter hours of week 1.  They've been laggards the whole time.

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Comal county like everywhere else had a higher EV turnout than usual. I rolled into the location in Bulverde thinking I would be in and out. I was wrong.

There were a shit ton of people in aggy gear in line, matching hats and shirts. I'm curious if it was a coordinated effort. Hard to tell with those bozos.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, F250 said:

Comal county like everywhere else had a higher EV turnout than usual. I rolled into the location in Bulverde thinking I would be in and out. I was wrong.

There were a shit ton of people in aggy gear in line, matching hats and shirts. I'm curious if it was a coordinated effort. Hard to tell with those bozos.

I know right?  Spontaneous regimentation seems to be genetic with that bunch.

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3 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

I know right?  Spontaneous regimentation seems to be genetic with that bunch.

It really does. I'm not sure if they are hardwired during fish camp or there is some kind of daily secret code released by Texags. "Today is Saturday, jorts and sandals with a matching aggy shirt and hat will be worn today. Remember to display SEC on the back of your truck next to the Yeti sticker. The use of tsip must be used at least 3 times today."

 

 

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51 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Tarrant Co walk in vote was 51,630 today.  Might be a few mail ballots to add but total EV turnout in Tarrant 41.4% or slightly higher.

High Tarrant County turnout is bad for Beto. I live here. Most people around here just hit straight ticket repub without thinking about it or caring whose really on the ballot. I wish people wouldn’t vote for potty Patrick or ken “indictment” Paxton at least.

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5 minutes ago, F250 said:

Yeah, I would like to see some actual numbers behind these percentages.


18-29 year olds 9.9% of EV this year.  It's a big uptick from 2014, when they were 4.6%.  I don't have comp data for 2016 though.

 

Edited by sushihorn
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evest11-2.png

11/2 is estimated based on the counties with totals on their websites. Missing from the data right now are Cameron, Dallas, El Paso, Galveston, and Travis.

This would put us at a total of 3,801,086 in-person early votes in these 15 counties. 2014 had 1,504,076 and 2016 had 4,186,107.

Edited by Huckleberry
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2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

High Tarrant County turnout is bad for Beto. I live here. Most people around here just hit straight ticket repub without thinking about it or caring whose really on the ballot. I wish people wouldn’t vote for potty Patrick or ken “indictment” Paxton at least.

Tarrant went 51.7% for Trump by 57,000 votes after going 57.1% for Romney. With that trend and other trends away from Republicans, Beto is going to win Tarrant.

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7 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

evest11-2.png

11/2 is estimated based on the counties with totals on their websites. Missing from the data right now are Cameron, Dallas, El Paso, Galveston, and Travis.

This would put us at a total of 3,801,086 in-person early votes in these 15 counties. 2014 had 1,504,076 and 2016 had 4,186,107.

If Texas voters are tracking to 2016 behavior in terms of city/rural breakdown and early/election day voting pct, this takes us just shy of 7.6m voting this year.    Even outlier estimates had us at 7m at the highest.   

 

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6 hours ago, RayDog said:

Tarrant went 51.7% for Trump by 57,000 votes after going 57.1% for Romney. With that trend and other trends away from Republicans, Beto is going to win Tarrant.

That's what I've been saying since far up thread. Based on previous patterns, Beto should retain all of Hillary's counties and pick up Hays, Williamson, and Tarrant. That would make Texas a certifiably purple state. If he also picks up Collin, then he wins this thing.

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Tarrant is a microcosm of the state as a whole - big urban and suburban population but non trivial rural/semi rural population as well. If Beto wins there and Williamson, both of which have tracked statewide margins pretty closely the past few election cycles, he has a great chance. That means he has flipped or nearly flipped the suburbs.

I just have to think R+9 in both is too much ground to make up. High turnout is better than low though. Every additional voter coming out of the woodwork in those places is likely to be a D/Independent as opposed to a dedicated Republican who consistently votes there already.

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Impressive turnout on the final day of EV.  One day turnout for Friday was over 5% of all registered voters in Tarrant, Travis, Collin, Denton, Ft Bend, Williamson, Hays, Ellis and Parker counties.  Dallas leading the big urban counties with 4.56% but Harris and Bexar were below the top 30 avg (4.41%) at 4.27% and 4.00% respectively.

Other than Cameron, EVERY county had EV turnout that was at least 80% of 2016's on Friday.

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Last day in the books for my chart.

80Z0EMUX_o.jpg

Below is my back of the envelope state of the race:

  • Added a scenario, on the far right,  if '18 voters duplicated the Trump/Hillary percentages.   
  • With that, Beto is up 318K with early votes in the top 16 counties
  • With Election Day results, let's raise that to 415K.
  • One big assumption (guess) is that Cruz will win the smaller counties by 1.1m.  Trump won them by 1.3m.  I lowered it due to turnout.
  • With that, Beto needs to have converted 2016 voters/found new voters in order to find a net 700K from somewhere.

I think the last element is decent possibility.  Do we really think that Beto is doing the same or worse than Hillary?   Trump isn't popular.  Women supposedly have voted 10 points higher than men.  Higher percentage of young voters. Apathy for Cruz by many. Texas hasn't seen statewide enthusiasm like this in decades (ever?)  Beto raised millions from everyday Texans.  Thousands of Beto supporters are knocking on doors.  Culberson and Sessions are tied in their districts.   Across the country, the GOP looks to be trending down...

 

 

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Beto gets 200,000 to 250,000 from greens and never Trump one time libertarians.

He gets 200,000 in rural counties when Cruz polls closer to Romney than Trump.

Harris plus 90,000 compared to Clinton/Trump, Dallas 60,000, Tarrant 60,000, Bexar 30,000, Travis 40,000, Collin 30,000, Denton 25,000, Fort Bend 25,000, Montgomery 30,000, etc...

It all adds up to a Beto win.

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On ‎11‎/‎3‎/‎2018 at 2:40 PM, RayDog said:

Beto gets 200,000 to 250,000 from greens and never Trump one time libertarians.

He gets 200,000 in rural counties when Cruz polls closer to Romney than Trump.

Harris plus 90,000 compared to Clinton/Trump, Dallas 60,000, Tarrant 60,000, Bexar 30,000, Travis 40,000, Collin 30,000, Denton 25,000, Fort Bend 25,000, Montgomery 30,000, etc...

It all adds up to a Beto win.

You need to stop doing this

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