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Early Voting 2018 thread of doom

Pancho

By Pancho
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Captainant

Captainant 27250

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

Sorry if already explained...

 

Why are we all assuming that high early voting numbers is good for Dems?

Historically, a higher voter turnout favors the dems. A high early vote tally implies a high voting day turnout, which again favors the dems

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BigOrange1
BigOrange1

voted on my way home from work.  only had to wait about 20 minutes.  voted against every republican on the ballot and in races where they were unopposed, i left it blank.   fuck them for what the

BrickHorn
BrickHorn

You, sir, are a true hero of the Fourth Reich.

Longhorn_Fan68
Longhorn_Fan68

Not me, man. As I've said before, I'm going through the entire ballot and actively voting against every R I see. If it's an L next to their name and no one else, they get my vote. My freedom boner wil

Js1

Js1 84994

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

Sorry if already explained...

 

Why are we all assuming that high early voting numbers is good for Dems?

If Republicans benefited from high turnout, they wouldn't try to suppress the vote and ensure as few people as possible cast ballots. 

Edited by Js1
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13388

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

Sorry if already explained...

 

Why are we all assuming that high early voting numbers is good for Dems?

I think many are seeing what they want from the numbers.  As midterms normally go bad for the President's party, you could argue that increased turnout could mean a blue wave.  Or it could also mean that Republican voters are also motivated to offset a blue wave.  Then we end up with results similar to 2016.   

As there isn't a recent turnout at this level in a midterm, none of us know what we're talking about.    That's part of the fun.   

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15327

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Denton is a pretty liberal town, at least by Dallas standards. Lots of art and music and UNT and whatnot. I would be surprised if it's not a 50/50 split, maybe even leaning blue.

Denton is a liberal town, but the City of Denton is only a small percentage of Denton County.  Denton has about 137K; Denton County has about 836K.  

Denton County's population is largely in those exurbs of Dallas like Flower Mound, Lewisville, and The Colony.  Those places tend to be heavily Republican.  But they're filled with white college-educated voters who are somewhat less Republican than they have been.  

Even so--Denton County is going to be a Republican county once all the votes are counted.

3 hours ago, High Plains Drifter said:

Sorry if already explained...

 

Why are we all assuming that high early voting numbers is good for Dems?

Because old white people always vote, and old white people are disproportionately Republican.  Each marginal voter is more likely to be Democratic than the last, if for no other reason than each marginal voter is less white and younger than the last.

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

Posted
Posted

Blurb from Austin chronicle that gives some insight into who is making up the voting surge.  Useful if you know the areas referenced here:

 

In Travis County, turnout through Sunday was 23.5%, compared to 26.1% for the same period in 2016 and 18.6% for the whole EV window in 2014. (Remember, 2014 was kind of a big-deal election in Austin, with dozens of candidates for all 11 City Council seats, plus Wendy Davis.) With the caveat that anyone can vote anywhere (although they don’t really), highest turnout so far is at the Randalls on Brodie and on Braker, followed by UT Flawn Academic Center, ACC Highland, and the Ben Hur Shrine. However, none of those sites (except for Flawn) have yet beaten their 2014 total turnout – compared to, for example, Carver Library, which has already seen four times as many voters as four years ago.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32660

Posted
Posted
I still don't understand how that's not a 196% increase, not 96%

The increase is 96%. The second total is 196% of the first total. 

Just think of it like this, if 2018 were the exact same as 2014 then these two things are obviously true:

 

It is 100% of the 2014 value

There is zero, i.e. a 0%, increase over 2014

 

 

 

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bolverk

bolverk 29261

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Y'all sure about that? I read that as compared to 100 voters in 2014, only 96 have showed up this cycle. I think it actually means fewer olds have been turning out. But that negative percentage for natives gives me pause.

Right. The negative is your answer.

Native Americans: Say that 100 voted last time. Now, multiply 100 times -0.8758. That yields -88 more or less. The maths is 100+(-88)=12.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32660

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Thanks. For some reason percentages have always fucked me up. I can design complex buildings, but move a couple decimal places and my brain goes to mush. Lulz

It messes up a lot of people, but your instinct was correct to start questioning your interpretation when you saw the negative increase for Native Americans. All you have to do is add 100% to the percentage increase to see what percent of the old total the new total is. So on Native Americans we know that as of right now 2018 Native American votes total to only 13% of how many there were at the same point in 2014.

And, of course, that means that a percentage increase of votes can't be less than -100%, but it can be infinitely large.

Edited by Huckleberry
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bolverk

bolverk 29261

Posted
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Thanks. For some reason percentages have always fucked me up. I can design complex buildings, but move a couple decimal places and my brain goes to mush. Lulz

Here's something else. You have 649 +rep for 1145 posts. I have 480 for 1040 posts. Huckleberry has 1547 for 1611 posts.

By that measure:

LHF68: 649/1145 = 0.567 Your posts are liked 56.7% of the time, meaning you're an over half-way decent poster

Bolverk: 480/1080 = 0.462 I'm kind of a shit one at only 46.2% likes per posts.

But Huckleberry, my man, is 96% AWESOME!

Edited by bolverk
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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 33779

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, TornACL said:

Why did a fourth grade math class break out on this page?

Probably because that was the year I discovered I couldn't read the blackboard and needed glasses. Must have missed the percentages lecture.

I don't fucking know, but where else should one ask for a clarification on information being presented?

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

Posted
Posted

Texas SOS numbers are out for 10/30.  Top level is that daily turnout continues to drop in both absolute terms and relative to 2016.  Might be the partisan bases have already turned out their most energized voters.  Mean turnout for the top 30 counties has been: 5.98%, 4.19, 3.61, 3.36, 3.57, 2.83, 1.29 (weekend), 2.85, 2.68.  As a percentage of the same day turnout in 2016 the top 15 have been 97.90%, 94.02, 82.31, 82,00, 85.68, 91.30, 101.69 (weekend), 89.35, 83.18.

Winners in daily turnout have been the usual suspects Mon & Tue: Denton, Travis, Colin, Comal.  Best turnout relative to 2016 for those 2 days: Dallas, Travis, Hidalgo(!), Tarrant, Bexar.

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Js1

Js1 84994

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Probably because that was the year I discovered I couldn't read the blackboard and needed glasses. Must have missed the percentages lecture.

I don't fucking know, but where else should one ask for a clarification on information being presented?

"My name is Longhorn_Fan68 and I Don't know how percentages work"

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Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, yoladu said:

Just voted. Not bad..

26 minutes

16 minute wait.. 10 minute processing and vote.

Can you share/ explain this part?

 

That seems like a long ass time.

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