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2 minutes ago, Wade said:

Understood, but we seem to be egging them on to continue a hopeless fight that can get infinitely worse, when we have no intentions of actually intervening.

We can encourage them to do all sorts of things (and we might be, for all I know), but it's not our decision.  Once they are part of Russia again, do they ever get out?

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3 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Wow, the Russians got pants at the UN.  Its one of the most famous moments of the cold war, look it up.  And by the way their wasn't a direct negotiation ever, it was all done with back channel negotiation.  

 

This is one of our largest problems, somehow its become cool socially to be willfully ignorant.  This information is readily available to be studied, its not classified.  These are facts   

I know all about the "answer the question".  It was negotiated between Kennedy and Khrushchev not through the UN.

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4 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Couldn’t the world police (whatever) arrest Putin and charge him with war crimes and because he’s a threat to himself and others put him in a 5150 psych hold indefinitely and secretly where he can’t get in touch with anyone on  the outside?  Of course we’d have to find him (gotta believe we know where he is) and confront and arrest. Because I apparently now drop acid now  I’m just trying to get him off  the stage. By force.

 

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18 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

So you feel like the wars since the UN founding have been just as dangerous and destructive as WWII?

there's a nuclear deterrent/MAD that was displayed pre-UN that has nothing to do with the UN.  NATO is a deterrent as well and way more important than the UN.

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Couldn’t the world police (whatever) arrest Putin and charge him with war crimes and because he’s a threat to himself and others put him in a 5150 psych hold indefinitely and secretly where he can’t get in touch with anyone on  the outside?  Of course we’d have to find him (gotta believe we know where he is) and confront and arrest. Because I apparently now drop acid now  I’m just trying to get him off  the stage. By force.

Fuck- why hasn’t Washington thought of that. We can just show up at the border with some state troopers out of Abilene and tell them we’re there to arrest Putin. They’ll let us right in.

I hope your good at sex because that may be all you got.
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2 minutes ago, Wade said:

Buzzrock has been spot on this whole time.  No matter how long they hold out and how bloody it gets, it's going to end the same way.  Take the long view, live to fight another day.  Keep fucking around and this shit will get out of control.  It will get out of control and we will all die.

 

And another day it's still going to be bloody and end the same way. 

Shit should have been nipped in the bud in 2014. It wasn't. 

If you allow naked aggression to be rewarded, shockingly enough, it incentivizes naked aggression. There are lessons that have been learned over the past decade. Do everything in your power to acquire nuclear weapons and don't give them up for anything. If you're an authoritarian ruler and you have a sizable protest going on in your country, annihilate the protests with complete and utter ruthlessness, or you're going to be executed or imprisoned for life. Take over desirable areas with impunity, weather any token sanctions, then continue on business as usual. 

These qualities are embedded in the human race. The only thing that curbs them are external factors. If there isn't a price exacted for naked aggression, other people inclined towards naked aggression will pursue it. 

Peace at any cost helps to create a world ruled by oppression. Back down now, and you simply enable the qualities that are causing you to back down. I'm not saying there are any easy solutions. But there is no doubt what kind of path appeasing Putin will lead to. If not with Putin because he keels over, then the next guy, whether Russian or from somewhere else.

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8 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I really hope that the info about the supply lines being fucked is true.  I've been told by some of the military friends I know that normal prep procedure is 2 weeks worth of "supplies" before the need for resupply after initial launch.  maybe some of the military folks on the thread can enlighten us.

Tall order. COD guys on here wear them down. 🤣

Battle Royale Warzone GIF by Call of Duty

 

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1 minute ago, SL Xpress said:

 

And another day it's still going to be bloody and end the same way. 

Shit should have been nipped in the bud in 2014. It wasn't. 

If you allow naked aggression to be rewarded, shockingly enough, it incentivizes naked aggression. There are lessons that have been learned over the past decade. Do everything in your power to acquire nuclear weapons and don't give them up for anything. If you're an authoritarian ruler and you have a sizable protest going on in your country, annihilate the protests with complete and utter ruthlessness, or you're going to be executed or imprisoned for life. Take over desirable areas with impunity, weather any token sanctions, then continue on business as usual. 

These qualities are embedded in the human race. The only thing that curbs them are external factors. If there isn't a price exacted for naked aggression, other people inclined towards naked aggression will pursue it. 

Peace at any cost helps to create a world ruled by oppression. Back down now, and you simply enable the qualities that are causing you to back down. I'm not saying there are any easy solutions. But there is no doubt what kind of path appeasing Putin will lead to. If not with Putin because he keels over, then the next guy, whether Russian or from somewhere else.

actually 2008.

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13 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Couldn’t the world police (whatever) arrest Putin and charge him with war crimes and because he’s a threat to himself and others put him in a 5150 psych hold indefinitely and secretly where he can’t get in touch with anyone on  the outside?  Of course we’d have to find him (gotta believe we know where he is) and confront and arrest. Because I apparently now drop acid now  I’m just trying to get him off  the stage. By force.

Don't worry, they're on it

ripcity GIF

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I would guess that Putin is probably already subject to prosecution for war crimes/crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court commonly known as "the Hague."

The reality is that before a leader is prosecuted there, first he must lose his war, then he must be deposed, then he must be captured.  Using Milosevic as an analogy and also the Nuremberg trials.

The ICC is not 100% accepted by the world community, to include the US.

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Just now, SL Xpress said:

So in your opinion the UN has contributed nothing to world peace, then. 

It can help with awareness of poor/third world countries who have food, clothing, shelter, medical crises and motivate countries to ban together to get supplies where they are needed. It can make the world aware of genocidal activities but yes, as a peace making body it kinda sucks ass.

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6 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

 

And another day it's still going to be bloody and end the same way. 

Shit should have been nipped in the bud in 2014. It wasn't. 

If you allow naked aggression to be rewarded, shockingly enough, it incentivizes naked aggression. There are lessons that have been learned over the past decade. Do everything in your power to acquire nuclear weapons and don't give them up for anything. If you're an authoritarian ruler and you have a sizable protest going on in your country, annihilate the protests with complete and utter ruthlessness, or you're going to be executed or imprisoned for life. Take over desirable areas with impunity, weather any token sanctions, then continue on business as usual. 

These qualities are embedded in the human race. The only thing that curbs them are external factors. If there isn't a price exacted for naked aggression, other people inclined towards naked aggression will pursue it. 

Peace at any cost helps to create a world ruled by oppression. Back down now, and you simply enable the qualities that are causing you to back down. I'm not saying there are any easy solutions. But there is no doubt what kind of path appeasing Putin will lead to. If not with Putin because he keels over, then the next guy, whether Russian or from somewhere else.

Unfortunately we're those hostages in the bank with a nut job strapped to enough c4 to blow up a city block. We're watching the nut do nutty things but we can't do anything directly or else he could blow us all up. So the only real play is to wait him out and try to talk him down. 

There's no doubt in my mind he wasn't prepared for any of this. He thought it would be just like Chechnya where they waltz in and fuck shit up and no one cares. He never thought he'd trigger WW3 where literally all of Europe and America is against him and Ukraine is pulling out all the stops while he has no allies. Even his closest ones have turned their backs and China is sitting and watching shaking their heads. Therefore he's in desperation mode and talking all nuclear because he doesn't know what to do. We need to guide him to a cease fire and give him an out so he doesn't blow us all up. 

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Fuck- why hasn’t Washington thought of that. We can just show up at the border with some state troopers out of Abilene and tell them we’re there to arrest Putin. They’ll let us right in.

I hope your good at sex because that may be all you got.

I bet ole Benny from lone star law could talk him down to just a warning to get him to come out
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Just now, SL Xpress said:

 

And another day it's still going to be bloody and end the same way. 

Shit should have been nipped in the bud in 2014. It wasn't. 

If you allow naked aggression to be rewarded, shockingly enough, it incentivizes naked aggression. There are lessons that have been learned over the past decade. Do everything in your power to acquire nuclear weapons and don't give them up for anything. If you're an authoritarian ruler and you have a sizable protest going on in your country, annihilate the protests with complete and utter ruthlessness, or you're going to be executed or imprisoned for life. Take over desirable areas with impunity, weather any token sanctions, then continue on business as usual. 

These qualities are embedded in the human race. The only thing that curbs them are external factors. If there isn't a price exacted for naked aggression, other people inclined towards naked aggression will pursue it. 

Peace at any cost helps to create a world ruled by oppression. Back down now, and you simply enable the qualities that are causing you to back down. I'm not saying there are any easy solutions. But there is no doubt what kind of path appeasing Putin will lead to. If not with Putin because he keels over, then the next guy, whether Russian or from somewhere else.

This situation is not akin to Chamberlain appeasing the dictator of a rising world power with global ambitions.  Russia is a decaying country with an economy that can't compete in this century.  It's conventional military is being used up in this endeavor.  Those who prognasticate that this is just the start of his military endeavors have no clue.  He has nothing to extend beyond this.

What he does have are nukes.  What he also has is an attitude of, "if I'm going down I'm taking the West with me" (his foreign minister threatens nuclear war multiple times a day).

When you have a madman like that in a situation like this, you appease him his victory in Ukraine.  Then you work quietly to get him out of power without implicating yourself.

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11 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

This was just posted. Funny, I don't see a lot of movement off the road. There are no listening posts, trails, etc. Maybe they are just sitting on the road. 

 


If they get off the road, they get stuck in the mud.

They abandon vehicles that get stuck in the mud. They're lost, at least to the ruskies.

Stunning video montage of the 3D satellite imagery, though!

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1 minute ago, Wade said:

This situation is not akin to Chamberlain appeasing the dictator of a rising world power with global ambitions.  Russia is a decaying country with an economy that can't compete in this century.  It's conventional military is being used up in this endeavor.  Those who prognasticate that this is just the start of his military endeavors have no clue.  He has nothing to extend beyond this.

What he does have are nukes.  What he also has is an attitude of, "if I'm going down I'm taking the West with me" (his foreign minister threatens nuclear war multiple times a day).

When you have a madman like that in a situation like this, you appease him his victory in Ukraine.  Then you work quietly to get him out of power without implicating yourself.

Regrettably, this is entirely correct.  And the people of Ukraine are heroes, and just be treated as such for this.  

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32 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Couldn’t the world police (whatever) arrest Putin and charge him with war crimes and because he’s a threat to himself and others put him in a 5150 psych hold indefinitely and secretly where he can’t get in touch with anyone on  the outside?  Of course we’d have to find him (gotta believe we know where he is) and confront and arrest. Because I apparently now drop acid now  I’m just trying to get him off  the stage. By force.

image.gif.150d117f7dcb08fcf00c4cf6be5a7ccc.gif

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17 minutes ago, Wade said:

No, we are not talking about everyone.  We are talking about Ukraine.  That's a surprisingly shit post from you.

But that's not how it works.

If there's anything I'd emphasize, it's that Putin is not the only danger. Putin represents a type of personality who craves power and seeks it out relentlessly and ambitiously. Those people gain power in all kinds of stations in life, so you're never going to eliminate it, nor would you want to necessarily. It's a trait that can be socialized through external curbs on their behavior. When there are no curbs, or the curbs are insufficient, then you get the Stalins, the Maos, the HItlers, etc.. 

It's dangerous to make Putin feel cornered, but it's just as dangerous to make him feel like he faces limited opposition. What is most dangerous is creating situations where he's rewarded for his aggression. 

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12 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

I haven't seen it in here yet. 

Lindsay seeking Brutus. Or Stauffenberg.

But, perhaps more successful than the latter.

 

There are some references to it. I had to look it up. Not a fan. I mean, I agree, but me posting it on surly is a different deal than a US senator posting it to the world. 

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Short of the entire Russian Army quitting, the only way this ends is when Kiev is toppled and Putin installs the puppet.

I don't really think it was possible but I think the only other possibility was, before he invaded, to give him D and L and the land bridge to Crimea and tell him he goes one foot further and its all bets are off.  again, completely spitballing as a "what would he have taken?" scenario.

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Somebody posted a video earlier of a line of 4-5 abandoned/captured Russian Tunguskas (anti-aircraft missiles and guns, with guns that could be used against ground targets) being destroyed with Molotov cocktails.

On one of the analysts twitter threads, they broke down the cost as being $60 - $70 million USD for everything pictured, but that they could not be easily replaced now because

  1. You can't just roll one off an assembly line in 24 hours, since the assembly lines for a lot of their older stuff were long since re-tooled for other stuff (these stopped production in 1980, but received upgrades over the years, but production is not upgrades).
  2. There is a real chance that the sanctions could impact necessary materials or electrical components to make more such weapons systems going forward.  They discussed that on the one hand, while the Russian manufacturers are probably not making the smallest/cheapest of components and just importing from China, there's other stuff that could be impacted, plus China will get to price-gouge or hold up critical shipments of stuff to get favors, etc., and that's before the costs of setting up new production lines is accounted for.
  3. To replace it in the short term, they'll have to pull (mostly) older stuff out of the reserves, or try and extend the coverage of the existing systems still remaining.  These could engage aircraft out to around 10km, so this could put a serious strain on stretching out their AA defenses.

They also tied it into the shipments  of systems/vehicles (by rail) from Russia's Pacific areas, and how expensive it is to move that stuff (7+ days rolling 24/7, with really heavy cargo) and they wouldn't be doing that if they could easily replace current losses either with pre-existing stocks in the area, or spread things out to help mind the gap that's created when these types of things are knocked out.

TLDR: If they are importing weapons from the Pacific areas, and if they are losing valuable systems (such as AA vehicles), they are under immense strain, more so than simply losing some trucks here and there.

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32 minutes ago, Handcruser said:


Fuck- why hasn’t Washington thought of that. We can just show up at the border with some state troopers out of Abilene and tell them we’re there to arrest Putin. They’ll let us right in.

I hope your good at sex because that may be all you got.

*you're

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1 minute ago, SL Xpress said:

But that's not how it works.

If there's anything I'd emphasize, it's that Putin is not the only danger. Putin represents a type of personality who craves power and seeks it out relentlessly and ambitiously. Those people gain power in all kinds of stations in life, so you're never going to eliminate it, nor would you want to necessarily. It's a trait that can be socialized through external curbs on their behavior. When there are no curbs, or the curbs are insufficient, then you get the Stalins, the Maos, the HItlers, etc.. 

It's dangerous to make Putin feel cornered, but it's just as dangerous to make him feel like he faces limited opposition. What is most dangerous is creating situations where he's rewarded for his aggression. 

First, let me apologize by "shitpost".  I thought you were fucking with the OP.

Second, I am normally aligned with your way of thinking, but this is a very unique situation, and I think it requires much more nuanced responses than we've been doing.

At any rate, the world has come together to condemn Putin and Russia here in impactful ways (even if they haven't impacted quite yet).  In fact, I might argue the opposite position here.  I'm wondering if this global unified response to Putin has made Xi rethink his Taiwan ambitions.

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4 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

It's dangerous to make Putin feel cornered, but it's just as dangerous to make him feel like he faces limited opposition. What is most dangerous is creating situations where he's rewarded for his aggression. 

This goes back to Putin being a gambler.  Usually a risk-taker considers various outcomes/consequences (risks) and tries to control the outcome through whatever means they can.  At the very least, they are weighing the pros and cons and there is usually a line where they back down.  Gamblers are ultimately just guessing, and usually just focusing on the best outcome for themselves (hence the reason to gamble in the first place).

It's freaky when applied to somebody at that level of power.

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18 minutes ago, Wade said:

This situation is not akin to Chamberlain appeasing the dictator of a rising world power with global ambitions.  Russia is a decaying country with an economy that can't compete in this century.  It's conventional military is being used up in this endeavor.  Those who prognasticate that this is just the start of his military endeavors have no clue.  He has nothing to extend beyond this.

What he does have are nukes.  What he also has is an attitude of, "if I'm going down I'm taking the West with me" (his foreign minister threatens nuclear war multiple times a day).

When you have a madman like that in a situation like this, you appease him his victory in Ukraine.  Then you work quietly to get him out of power without implicating yourself.

I do not believe this is the start of his military endeavors. The importance of Ukraine to him is well beyond what it is for other territories. Also, he's 70. Hitler was 49 when Chamberlain met with him.

There's also a huge gap between a Pontius Pilate wash your hands and a full fledged counter attack by NATO forces.  You obviously feel like the West is being too aggressive. I feel like the West is doing exactly what they should be. 

I'd also say, as a segue, that I've read military historians who argue Britain was wholly unprepared for war at the time of the Munich Agreement, and Chamberlain's treaty allowed Britain time to scale up their war production so that when war did eventually come, they were more prepared than they otherwise would have been. Don't know that I buy it, but it's an interesting counterpoint to what we commonly perceive.

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20 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

I haven't seen it in here yet. 

Lindsay seeking Brutus. Or Stauffenberg.

But, perhaps more successful than the latter.

 

pulp fiction tarantino GIF

Lindsey, shut the fuck up! It's not productive to have sitting US senators openly and publicly pleading with Russia's military leaders to assassinate Putin. That can only make the trigger finger more itchy. These stupid fucks should know better. 

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2 minutes ago, Wade said:

First, let me apologize by "shitpost".  I thought you were fucking with the OP.

Second, I am normally aligned with your way of thinking, but this is a very unique situation, and I think it requires much more nuanced responses than we've been doing.

At any rate, the world has come together to condemn Putin and Russia here in impactful ways (even if they haven't impacted quite yet).  In fact, I might argue the opposite position here.  I'm wondering if this global unified response to Putin has made Xi rethink his Taiwan ambitions.

I think that is a big question.  We know Putin stole from his military for his own gain, I don't think we have any indication one way or another that Xi has done this.  Russia has long been a paper tiger (or more appropriately a rusted tiger), but China may actually have a viable army, navy, and air force.  It is suspected that Taiwan has a small nuclear deterrent, but the real deterrent may well be global isolation.  Hard to imagine the world's economy right now spinning without China involved.

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5 minutes ago, Wade said:

First, let me apologize by "shitpost".  I thought you were fucking with the OP.

Second, I am normally aligned with your way of thinking, but this is a very unique situation, and I think it requires much more nuanced responses than we've been doing.

At any rate, the world has come together to condemn Putin and Russia here in impactful ways (even if they haven't impacted quite yet).  In fact, I might argue the opposite position here.  I'm wondering if this global unified response to Putin has made Xi rethink his Taiwan ambitions.

not a chance.  which is why we are building fabs as fast as possible with govt subsidies.

the only caveat is that Taiwan is a great strategic piece for him in any negotiation.  he loses that if he invades.

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3 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

pulp fiction tarantino GIF

Lindsey, shut the fuck up! It's not productive to have sitting US senators openly and publicly pleading with Russia's military leaders to assassinate Putin. That can only make the trigger finger more itchy. These stupid fucks should know better. 

its possible that, like Rubio, he is getting this stuff cleared by WH.

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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

The fact that Russian convoys, even this far into the war, are so unguarded, makes me think that they were not expecting much, if any, resistance.

The Russian airborne troops that assaulted the airport near Kyiv on the first day or two were in no way equipped or trained to face Ukrainian resistance at any level - they were fucking walking around in plain sight of civilians (and CNN news crews) at the airport, they did not have a perimeter established, and the list goes on.

No, they don't.  American (and other Western units) have a lot more latitude and training to adjust at the lower levels.  Plus, American just spent almost 20 years fighting in situations where a lot of engagements were happening at company and platoon level, where junior officers and NCOs were having to change strategies on the fly.

I think what he's talking about is that were they using the airborne troops in place of regular or mechanized infantry and Russia's use/training/equipping of their airborne forces is far different than ours and it shows. 

Look at the massive coordination of the first Gulf War, and how our units were chosen based on the expected opposition - we had our airborne (and air assault) troops in the mix (and our 82nd Abn was basically mechanized), but they were guarding flanks of the regular/armored/mechanized divisions that were going to be facing the (expected) kind of resistance that the Russians are facing in Ukraine.

DesertStormMap_v2.svg

 

And yet we are hearing Belarus is going to be sending in their own airborne units.  

It's not that paratroopers can't fight, or even function in a somewhat mechanized manner (we basically mechanized the 82nd in the first Gulf War with trucks), it's that they aren't the troops you send down the highway to spearhead the main invasion of a country of 44 million people.  You use them to guard flanks and exploit breakthroughs.

 

And I remember our US Marines were using M60 Patton tanks, which was the last hurrah for those tanks (as they were retired from US use after Desert Storm was over), while the US Army used the M1A1 Abrams tank.

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1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

I think that is a big question.  We know Putin stole from his military for his own gain, I don't think we have any indication one way or another that Xi has done this.  Russia has long been a paper tiger (or more appropriately a rusted tiger), but China may actually have a viable army, navy, and air force.  It is suspected that Taiwan has a small nuclear deterrent, but the real deterrent may well be global isolation.  Hard to imagine the world's economy right now spinning without China involved.

I don't think china is as fucked up as people make them out to be. I think they are just different. China isn't off trying to conquer Japan. They are taking back Hong Kong (which is legally theirs) and Taiwan, which was once part of China and still technically is China (just the wrong China). If they were out trying to take the Philippines or some shit that would be different. I don't see china going on some manifest destiny conquer the world mission. They want to bolster their economy and prosper. I'm sure there is corruption there, but when you look at it there are distinct differences between china and Russia, especially the oligarchy driven nature of Russia and the communal property driven nature of China (however unfairly distributed). China eat their own as much as they eat others.

We have disagreements with China on how disproportionate their deals are and some of their tactics in not respecting international norms, but that's stupid to equate to a literal madman who murders and steals from his own country. 

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55 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Couldn’t the world police (whatever) arrest Putin and charge him with war crimes and because he’s a threat to himself and others put him in a 5150 psych hold indefinitely and secretly where he can’t get in touch with anyone on  the outside?  Of course we’d have to find him (gotta believe we know where he is) and confront and arrest. Because I apparently now drop acid now  I’m just trying to get him off  the stage. By force.

That made me think of a mall cop doing it, which made me think of this funny Canada Dry commercial with a mall cop. Couldn't find it on YT anymore, so had to use the ispot.tv link.

https://ispot.tv/a/Iahz 

Lulz.

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1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

its possible that, like Rubio, he is getting this stuff cleared by WH.

"Get on out there Linds and say some unbelievably unthinkable shit! You alone can say it. Marc can't bring himself to do it. Your shameless. Get out there and shine."

*not a real convo due to plausible deniability

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