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17 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Ukraine and Germany didn't think the attack would take place. The UK was mostly on the same page as us but was a bit more equivocal. France was trying to play as mediator the whole time. 

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-invasion-predictions-wrong-intelligence/32275740.html

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On February 22, 2022, Josep Borrell, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, took a phone call from the United States’ top diplomat.

 

According to Borrell, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told him that Russia, after months of building up a massive military force on Ukraine’s border, was, in fact, going to invade.

“Tony Blinken phoned me and told me, ‘Well, it is going to happen this weekend’,” Borrell recalled in a speech months later. “And certainly, two days later, at 5 o’clock in the morning, they started bombing Kyiv. We did not believe that this was going to happen.

“We did not believe that the war was coming,” he said.

 

Maybe it was an EU thing, because NATO apparently was pretty sure that it would happen:


US hasn’t verified Russian pullback of troops near Ukraine
By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV, YURAS KARMANAU and AAMER MADHANI
Published 6:20 PM CDT, February 15, 2022

MOSCOW (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that he welcomed a security dialogue with the West, and his military reported pulling back some of its troops near Ukraine. But U.S. President Joe Biden said the U.S. had not verified Russia’s claim and that an invasion was still a distinct possibility.

Putin said he does not want war and would rely on negotiations in his efforts to eliminate any chance that Ukraine could one day join NATO. At the same time, he did not commit to a full pullback of troops, saying Russia’s next moves in the standoff will depend on how the situation evolves.

In remarks at the White House, Biden promised that the U.S. would continue to give diplomacy “every chance” to prevent a Russian invasion, but he struck a skeptical tone about Moscow’s intentions. Biden also insisted that the U.S. and its allies would not “sacrifice basic principles” respecting Ukraine sovereignty.

“Two paths are still open,” Biden said. “But let there be no doubt: If Russia commits this breach by invading Ukraine, responsible nations around the world will not hesitate to respond. If we do not stand for freedom where it is at risk today, we’ll surely pay a steeper price tomorrow.”

Putin’s overtures soothed global markets that have been on edge amid the worst East-West tensions in decades. Washington and its European allies remained cautious, saying they want to see evidence of a Russian pullback. Biden said 150,000 Russian forces are now massed near Ukraine and in Belarus, an increase from an earlier U.S. estimate of 130,000 troops.

Russia’s claim that it pulled back troops “would be good, but we have not yet verified that,” Biden said. “Indeed, our analysts indicate that they remain very much in a threatening position.”

The U.S. and NATO, which continue to warn that Russia could invade at any time, have sent troops and military supplies to shore up alliance members in Eastern Europe. Russia has denied having such plans. It wants the West to keep Ukraine and other ex-Soviet nations out of the alliance, halt weapons deployments near Russian borders and roll back forces from Eastern Europe.

The U.S. and its allies have roundly rejected those demands, but offered to engage in talks with Russia on ways to bolster security in Europe.

Speaking after meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Putin said the West agreed to discuss a ban on missile deployment to Europe, restrictions on military drills and other confidence-building measures — issues that Moscow put on the table years ago.

He said Russia is open to discuss “some of those elements,” but added that it would do so only in combination “with the main issues that are of primary importance for us.”

Asked if there could be a war in Europe, Putin said Russia doesn’t want it but that Ukraine’s bid to join NATO posed a major security threat to his country.

While Scholz reiterated that NATO’s eastward expansion “is not on the agenda — everyone knows that very well,” Putin retorted that Moscow will not be assuaged by such assurances.

“They are telling us it won’t happen tomorrow,” Putin said. “Well, when will it happen? The day after tomorrow? What does it change for us in the historic perspective? Nothing.”

Scholz also said diplomatic options are “far from exhausted,” and he praised the announcement of a troop withdrawal as a “good signal,” adding: “We hope that more will follow.”

The Russian Defense Ministry released images of tanks and howitzers rolling onto railway platforms and more tanks rolling across snowy fields. It did not disclose where or when the images were taken, or where the vehicles were headed, other than “to places of permanent deployment.”

Biden acknowledged the likelihood that sanctions imposed on Russia in retaliation for an invasion would have significant blowback on the American economy, including possible price hikes and disruption to the nation’s energy supply.

“The American people understand that defending democracy and liberty is never without cost,” Biden said. “I will not pretend this will be painless.”

He said the administration was trying to preempt supply issues by working with energy producers and shippers on contingency plans. The president said he would work with Congress on unspecified “additional measures to protect consumers and address the impact of prices at the pump.”

Russian forces continue to threaten Ukraine along the eastern border and from the Black Sea Crimean Peninsula that Moscow seized from Ukraine in 2014, the year when it also backed a separatist insurgency in the country’s east. More Russian troops loom over Ukraine in Belarus, where they were deployed for sweeping joint drills.

Ukraine expressed skepticism about Russia’s statements of a pullback.

“We won’t believe when we hear, we’ll believe when we see. When we see troops pulling out, we’ll believe in de-escalation,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that “so far, we have not seen ... any signs of reduced Russian military presence on the borders of Ukraine,” adding that the alliance wants to see a “significant and enduring withdrawal” of forces, troops and heavy equipment.

Meanwhile, a series of cyberattacks on Tuesday knocked out the websites of the Ukrainian army, the defense ministry and major banks. There was no indication that the relatively low-level denial-of-service attacks might be a smokescreen for more serious cyber mischief. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the U.S. has not yet determined who was behind the attacks.

Few Russians expect a war, following the Kremlin’s dismissal of Western warnings as “hysteria” and “absurdity.”

In a village in Russia’s Belgorod region, about 30 kilometers (18 miles) from Ukraine’s border, residents carried on with life as usual, even as more military personnel have been passing through village streets.

“We are friends with Ukraine,” villager Lyudmila Nechvolod said. “We are really on the border, we really have relatives here and there, everyone has somebody there (on the Ukrainian side). No one wants war.”

Diplomatic efforts continued Tuesday.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken held a call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and Biden spoke with French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday about the evolving crisis.

Meanwhile, Russian lawmakers urged Putin to recognize rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine as independent states. The State Duma, Russia’s lower house, voted to submit an appeal to Putin to that effect.

Putin said the request reflects the Russian public’s sympathy for the suffering of people trapped in the conflict in eastern Ukraine that has killed over 14,000 since 2014. He noted, however, that Russia continues to believe a 2015 peace deal brokered by France and Germany should serve as the main vehicle for a settlement of the separatist conflict.

Putin’s statement signaled that he wasn’t inclined to back the parliament proposal that would effectively invalidate the 2015 agreement, which marked a major diplomatic coup for Moscow and asked Kyiv to offer broad self-rule to the separatist territories. It has been resented by many in Ukraine, and its implementation has stalled.
___

Karmanau reported from Kyiv, Ukraine and Madhani from Washington. Dasha Litvinova in Moscow, Angela Charlton in Paris, Lorne Cook in Brussels, Monika Scislowska in Warsaw, Geir Moulson in Berlin, Jill Lawless in London, Jan M. Olsen in Copenhagen, Denmark, and Robert Burns, Matthew Lee and Zeke Miller in Washington contributed.

 

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18 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Russia is not on the brink of collapse internally, they can take a lot more pain and they will.

This is unfortunately true. 

I have a cousin that is married to a Russian Jew and they live in Tel Aviv. She fled Russia years back, but still knows a lot of people there obviously. 

Life in Moscow and St Petersburg is essentially unchanged. The war is not even on people’s minds. He likened it a bit to when the US was fighting the second Iraq war. Most people are against it, but it’s far away from most people and what are they going to do about it anyway? 

It doesn't look like a mobilization is imminent. They aren't having trouble recruiting because Putin doubled the pay. It's evidently a good bit of money for rural people. Also, their families are supposed to receive a lump sum in the event of their deaths. 

He thinks at this point the West will have to get more fully involved to stop Putin and wishes we had come in hard in the beginning and squashed him. Now that they’ve mobilized and transitioned their economy to war footing, this is going to last for a while. 

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29 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Promoted" because loyalty is more prized than competency.

Yeah, I would be shocked if he had truly been pushed out of Putin’s orbit - he’s one of Putin’s St Petersburg cronies, and there’s no way he gets rid of that group. Shoigu was always a fuckup and not suitable for military command.

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47 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

It’s going to take NATO troops to break the will. 

Sounds like it. The question is when and how?

 

Another thing I found interesting was that a decent number of younger Russians that fled after the invasion are returning. It's hard to get visas and in the places that they get in like Turkey or Georgia, they are treated pretty poorly and end up going back. They're not afraid of mobilization. 

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1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

It’s going to take NATO troops to break the will. 

Give Ukraine the weapons to deny Russia the ability to do anything meaningful in Crimea (weapons to remove the Kerch bridge and make it even more impossible for Russian ships to dock or land supplies in large quantities there) and make Russia commit a lot more troops to Crimea or the southern areas.  Make sure Ukraine can control their part of the Black Sea.  Keep up the sanctions and put the screws to China and India.  Help Moldova solve its Transnistria problem once and for all, and try to prop up Georgia and stir up Belarus. Spread Russia thin.

Nobody wants a stalemate, but if Ukraine removes the Kerch bridge and takes Crimea out of play militarily for Russia, that’s much worse for Putin.

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Posted (edited)

Shoigu is arguably getting a promotion. He will be overseeing Russia’s continuing shift to a full wartime economy (lots of $$$) and Belousov will be serving the role of the competent technocrat making some difficult and needed bureaucratic reforms at the MoD. I’ll expect uniformed military to get some promotions and have better oversight over operations. Patrushev is the loser, it’s unclear where he is going. 

Edited by 956 Worldwide
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8 minutes ago, B00M said:

Be specific or shut the fuck up. Nothing in war is a given or black and white

Only thing I've seen so far:

One Ukrainian commander took the unusual step on Sunday of blasting his colleagues for what he said were terrible border defenses.

“The first line of fortifications and mines just didn’t exist,” Denys Yaroslavsky, a reconnaissance commander, wrote on Facebook. “The enemy freely entered the gray area, across the border line, which in principle should not have been gray!”

(“Gray” areas are the contested zones between the Russian and Ukrainian front lines.)

Other Ukrainian officials denied that the country’s forces were unprepared, saying that reports suggesting so were outright disinformation benefiting Russia.

Commander Yaroslavsky added that street fights had broken out in Vovchansk, a small town near Kharkiv, and that it was now surrounded. “I say this because we can die and no one will hear the truth,” he wrote. “Then why is it all for?!”

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/12/world/europe/russia-ukraine-kharkiv.html

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Posted (edited)


Putin’s choice of new defence minister shows he’s preparing for confrontation with the West

Andrei Belousov is more at home with columns of data than of tanks, but he could be key to Moscow’s war effort and a conflict with Nato
James Kilner 13 May 2024 • 12:01pm

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/13/vladimir-putin-replaces-defence-minister-with-economist/?WT.mc_id=e_DM324171&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Edi_New_Reg&utmsource=email&utm_medium=Edi_Edi_New_Reg20240513&utm_campaign=DM324171

 

At first glance, Andrei Belousov does not appear to fit the mould of a Russian defence minister.

Known for his spreadsheet wizardry and grasp of Keynesian economics, he is more at home with columns of data than of tanks.

But Vladimir Putin has chosen Mr Belousov, described as the Kremlin’s most gifted and most illiberal economist, and given him a clear mission – to win in Ukraine and prepare Russia for a long-term conflict against Nato.

These are projects Putin regards as central to his legacy as Russia’s leader and he wanted a bureaucrat, not a military man, for the job.
Vladimir Putin has decided that the Russia ministry of defence should be headed by a civilian
Putin has decided that the Russia ministry of defence should be headed by a civilian Credit: MAXIM SHEMETOV/GETTY

Sergei Shoigu had been criticised for his inability to overcome bureaucratic inertia undermining Moscow’s war effort.

Mr Belousov, a 65-year-old Putin loyalist, is known for his sharp analytical mind and head for figures.

Putin has forced Russia’s economy and society on to a war footing. War has been normalised in the country. Appointing an economist as defence minister highlights this mental shift.

With Putin feeling confident about his armies’ performance on the battlefield in Ukraine, he has been able to make overdue changes to his top team.
Andrei Belousov, 65, who has taken charge of drone projects, previously worked in Russia's trade ministry as an analyst
Andrei Belousov, 65, who has taken charge of drone projects, previously worked in Russia's trade ministry as an analyst Credit: EKATERINA SHTUKINA/SPUTNIK

Belousov replaces Sergei Shoigu as defence minister. Shoigu was also a civilian, but after his appointment in 2012, he took on the rank of general and strutted around in various uniforms with rows of medals stuck to his chest.

Expect Belousov to take a very different, numbers-driven approach to Shoigu.

Recently Belousov has taken charge of drone projects, pushing through plans to build more of the key weapons and train more operators. He also reportedly has a good personal relationship with Putin.

Gen Shoigu has been shunted sideways to become the secretary of Russia’s powerful National Security Council, pushing out Nikolai Patrushev, the 72-year-old hawk who advises more conflict with Nato.

And there is the elephant in the room, the sullen General Valery Gerasimov, who is head of the Russian military. He survived the reshuffle, despite all the criticism aimed at him over the Russian military’s performance in Ukraine. Just like Shoigu, he must now be wondering how long he has left on the job.
Sergei Shoigu, the former defence minister, is set to be become the secretary of Russia's security council
Sergei Shoigu, the former defence minister, is set to be become the secretary of Russia's security council Credit: ALEXANDER NEMENOV/GETTY

Belousov has glided silently to the top. From 2012 he was a minister for economic development, then an economics adviser to Putin and then a deputy prime minister. Before joining the Kremlin’s team, Belousov worked in Russia’s trade ministry as an analyst and then in the prime minister’s office as a director of finances. This CV may sound boring, but this is just the sort of experience that Putin is looking for.

The war in Ukraine has shifted to a war of attrition that Putin feels that he can win. He has signed weapons supply deals with North Korea and Iran, and converted civilian industry to arms manufacturing, and also pushed the mobilisation of hundreds of thousands of men and convicts.

This has given Russia a material advantage in Ukraine and allowed it to soak up a casualty rate of nearly 1,000 men per day.

In other words, Putin believes that quantity over quality will triumph in Ukraine and, importantly, will challenge Nato more widely, a conflict he has prepared his armies for more intensely since his 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Belousov is Putin’s numbers man and the grey-suited bureaucrat is now preparing Russia for conflict with Nato.

 

Edited by Bevo
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15 minutes ago, Bevo said:


Putin’s choice of new defence minister shows he’s preparing for confrontation with the West

Andrei Belousov is more at home with columns of data than of tanks, but he could be key to Moscow’s war effort and a conflict with Nato
James Kilner 13 May 2024 • 12:01pm

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/13/vladimir-putin-replaces-defence-minister-with-economist/?WT.mc_id=e_DM324171&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Edi_New_Reg&utmsource=email&utm_medium=Edi_Edi_New_Reg20240513&utm_campaign=DM324171

 

At first glance, Andrei Belousov does not appear to fit the mould of a Russian defence minister.

Known for his spreadsheet wizardry and grasp of Keynesian economics, he is more at home with columns of data than of tanks.

But Vladimir Putin has chosen Mr Belousov, described as the Kremlin’s most gifted and most illiberal economist, and given him a clear mission – to win in Ukraine and prepare Russia for a long-term conflict against Nato.

These are projects Putin regards as central to his legacy as Russia’s leader and he wanted a bureaucrat, not a military man, for the job.
Vladimir Putin has decided that the Russia ministry of defence should be headed by a civilian
Putin has decided that the Russia ministry of defence should be headed by a civilian Credit: MAXIM SHEMETOV/GETTY

Sergei Shoigu had been criticised for his inability to overcome bureaucratic inertia undermining Moscow’s war effort.

Mr Belousov, a 65-year-old Putin loyalist, is known for his sharp analytical mind and head for figures.

Putin has forced Russia’s economy and society on to a war footing. War has been normalised in the country. Appointing an economist as defence minister highlights this mental shift.

With Putin feeling confident about his armies’ performance on the battlefield in Ukraine, he has been able to make overdue changes to his top team.
Andrei Belousov, 65, who has taken charge of drone projects, previously worked in Russia's trade ministry as an analyst
Andrei Belousov, 65, who has taken charge of drone projects, previously worked in Russia's trade ministry as an analyst Credit: EKATERINA SHTUKINA/SPUTNIK

Belousov replaces Sergei Shoigu as defence minister. Shoigu was also a civilian, but after his appointment in 2012, he took on the rank of general and strutted around in various uniforms with rows of medals stuck to his chest.

Expect Belousov to take a very different, numbers-driven approach to Shoigu.

Recently Belousov has taken charge of drone projects, pushing through plans to build more of the key weapons and train more operators. He also reportedly has a good personal relationship with Putin.

Gen Shoigu has been shunted sideways to become the secretary of Russia’s powerful National Security Council, pushing out Nikolai Patrushev, the 72-year-old hawk who advises more conflict with Nato.

And there is the elephant in the room, the sullen General Valery Gerasimov, who is head of the Russian military. He survived the reshuffle, despite all the criticism aimed at him over the Russian military’s performance in Ukraine. Just like Shoigu, he must now be wondering how long he has left on the job.
Sergei Shoigu, the former defence minister, is set to be become the secretary of Russia's security council
Sergei Shoigu, the former defence minister, is set to be become the secretary of Russia's security council Credit: ALEXANDER NEMENOV/GETTY

Belousov has glided silently to the top. From 2012 he was a minister for economic development, then an economics adviser to Putin and then a deputy prime minister. Before joining the Kremlin’s team, Belousov worked in Russia’s trade ministry as an analyst and then in the prime minister’s office as a director of finances. This CV may sound boring, but this is just the sort of experience that Putin is looking for.

The war in Ukraine has shifted to a war of attrition that Putin feels that he can win. He has signed weapons supply deals with North Korea and Iran, and converted civilian industry to arms manufacturing, and also pushed the mobilisation of hundreds of thousands of men and convicts.

This has given Russia a material advantage in Ukraine and allowed it to soak up a casualty rate of nearly 1,000 men per day.

In other words, Putin believes that quantity over quality will triumph in Ukraine and, importantly, will challenge Nato more widely, a conflict he has prepared his armies for more intensely since his 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Belousov is Putin’s numbers man and the grey-suited bureaucrat is now preparing Russia for conflict with Nato.

 

So their Marshall Marshall?

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I was already wondering why Putin would remove Shoigu, knowing is infinite loyalty for his boss and here we have the answer. According to RIA, Sergei Shoigu will receive the position of Secretary of the Security Council, which was headed by Nikolai Patrushev since 2008.

What happens with Patrushev is not mentioned. Shoigu once again proves that in Russia loyalty stands above expertise.

Putin is rewarding Shoigu, who always wanted to leave the DM post. But if Shoigu replaces Patrushev, it could be a dangerous move, as Patrushev is quite influential among the oligarchs and has been grooming his son to succeed Putin. My guess is Patrushev will replace Medvedev, who in turn will be given a more useless position.

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Yuriy Butusov's assessment of the situation in Kharkiv oblast. He says Russian advances have slowed now that they are running into defensive positions and their losses are increasing, though he says that some of existing fortifications were built in the wrong locations. He says the commander of OTU Kharkiv has been replaced, and the situation is complex but improving.

https://www.facebook.com/butusov.yuriy/posts/pfbid036SCwFftikwqXCT4PMXdR5n4WGhzPKaNwqTUG416YBffxXKCP8DwwRnwPTASg2xPYl

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21 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

Somehow you're twisting one of the best performances of our intelligence services, correctly predicting that Russia was going to invade Ukraine despite Ukraine and many other countries saying otherwise, into a failure. We we're yelling from roof tops about what Russia was planning (take Kyiv in 3 days) and no one was listening. 

That said, you're conclusion that we need to fully Ukraine now is right on. 

My bad for trivializing the efforts of the intelligence services into a single sentence. The gathering, analysis, and dissemination of information before the invasion was exemplary. 

Giving Russia too much credit before the fact, the "Second Army of the World", was an oft used phrase that in hindsight, was in indictment of anybody who believed it, me included. The missile barrage on Day 1 was impressive, but after that... 

I, like most, was surprised about the effectiveness of Ukraine's response. Said another way, I was more surprised about the Keystone Cop mindset of the Putin's cronies/military leadership, and the repeated missteps that were so crucial in the first few days.

I recalled reading about Basher 52 and the rescue of F-16 fighter pilot Scott O'Grady, and his comment, "you want to go in and dominate a situation." Similar mindset in Desert Storm, plan, anticipate and manage the logistics tail before you start, specifically, making sure the front line people have plenty of ammo, fuel & food. The graphic depiction of the air campaign is the poster child for effective planning and organization. 

I had enough data points to recognize that was not the Russian way. I ignored them and just accepted what I heard and read. Later, I found this thread, and I saw the light.  

On 5/11/2024 at 9:01 PM, 956 Worldwide said:

We assessed that Putin believed and planned that he would capture and cut off Kyiv in a few days, not that we believed it would happen. Based on what the Russians actually did with their invasion force (which was too small and did not bring strategic aviation to bear right away), it’s a safe bet we were right on Putin’s planning and belief.  

If Hostomel airport goes a different way, then the war maybe also goes a different way. 

Russia failure to gain air superiority and the fighting at Hostomel Airport were pleasantly surprising. Kinda like recovering the fumbled opening kickoff.

20 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

100% this!   They thought once they took the airport with special forces, they would start landing troops and material sufficient to either arrest or cause Ukrainians leaders to flee the country.     Ivan takes Hostomel and maybe “I don’t need a ride. I need more ammo”  becomes a plane ticket to DC or arrest video - and resistance fades. 

That is what happens when politicians plan a military exercise instead of letting the military do it.   I doubt they have a long line of military vehicles without gas - but with the troops having dress uniforms for the Kyiv victory parade. 

Uniforms instead of food tells you everything you need to know.

16 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Give Ukraine the weapons to deny Russia the ability to do anything meaningful in Crimea 

Nobody wants a stalemate, but if Ukraine removes the Kerch bridge and takes Crimea out of play militarily for Russia, that’s much worse for Putin.

And so much better for humanity.  Cyber wars and misinformation campaigns is a way of life today. Invading with tanks is no bueno. 

Ukraine has earned our respect and deserves our support.

Ukraine must win and Russia must lose.

13 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Shoigu is arguably getting a promotion. He will be overseeing Russia’s continuing shift to a full wartime economy (lots of $$$) 

 

 

This appears to be similar to an administrative role Putin had at one time, that allowed him to funnel money, and ultimately control the oligarchs.

Better for Putin and Shoigu, not so much for Russia. 

 

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33 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Screenshot_20240513_080448_Chrome.thumb.jpg.beb84a126dc8f7a8593a27909f730628.jpg

Unless I’m missing something, the border not being dragon teethed and mined and trenched to absolute hell is because it was under constant pressure by Russia. Hard to dig a trench when you’re in easy striking range of FPVs and artillery. Once the war started, Ukraine had little choice but to set up the defensive lines behind all the border towns. Obviously Ukraine should have spent the years following the annex of Crimea building the defensive lines along their borders. 

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, PTINS said:

I, like most, was surprised about the effectiveness of Ukraine's response. Said another way, I was more surprised about the Keystone Cop mindset of the Putin's cronies/military leadership, and the repeated missteps that were so crucial in the first few days.

Yeah, a lot of us were fooled into thinking that Russia had a professional NCO corps like NATO countries and that their junior officers were competent.  That infamous convoy woke a lot of folks up.  Our logistics people would not have allowed something like that to happen, and our NCOs and field grade officers would have unfucked that convoy in short order. Hell we took Baghdad in three weeks, but we were using modern tanks and purpose-built logistics vehicles on the ground, and, B-52s, A-10s, and a slew of other aircraft to control the airspace.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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One thing I feel highly confident in saying. Whoever permanently replaces Putin is going to spend a lot of time tearing down his legacy in an effort to build their own. May not be whoever takes over directly after him if they're dependent on his legacy for their control. But if someone establishes their own loyal hierarchy, part of it is going to come from distinguishing themselves from Putin. 

Also, maybe Andrei Belousov can be their Robert McNamara.

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4 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

One thing I feel highly confident in saying. Whoever permanently replaces Putin is going to spend a lot of time tearing down his legacy in an effort to build their own. May not be whoever takes over directly after him if they're dependent on his legacy for their control. But if someone establishes their own loyal hierarchy, part of it is going to come from distinguishing themselves from Putin. 

Also, maybe Andrei Belousov can be their Robert McNamara.

The next leader will be even worse. Death is all those fucking idiots know and deserve. 

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Underwater drones are picking up the pace of development by a lot of navies.  These are much fancier than Ukraine uses,  but Ukraine is probably working on the underwater drones quite a bit.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/13/tech/australia-us-undersea-drones-ml-hnk-intl/index.html

Ghost Shark and Manta Ray protect the undersea realm. Sounds like the plot of a future Marvel movie, but in actual fact, it’s what could be the future of Pacific naval defenses.

Ghost Shark and Manta Ray are the names of prototype uncrewed underwater vehicles – UUVs or drones – introduced recently by Australia and the United States respectively.

Experts say the submersibles could represent the future of undersea warfare, showing the ability to exert power while minimizing the danger to human life.

The use of drones in aerial warfare has become commonplace. The US used them extensively during conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan beginning in the 1990s, and newer, cheaper drones have become key pieces of military hardware for both sides in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Kyiv has also built naval surface drones, which have inflicted heavy losses on the much larger and more expensive ships of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

“Ghost Shark will provide Navy with a stealthy, long-range autonomous undersea warfare capability that can conduct persistent intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR) and strike,” a statement from the Australian Defense Ministry said, adding that it expects the first production models to be delivered by the end of next year.

Australian officials and those from manufacturer Anduril Australia said they could not share any of the specs on Ghost Shark as those remain classified.

But they touted the speed with which the submersible has gone from idea to testing, with the program having started just two years ago.

“Being ahead of schedule, on budget, it’s pretty unheard of,” Shane Arnott, Anduril’s senior vice president for engineering, told reporters.

..

“I assume that they are all intended for roughly similar mission sets – persistent intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and strike capability, particularly in the anti-submarine domain,” Salisbury said.

The US Navy called the Boeing-built Orca UUV “a cutting-edge, autonomous, unmanned diesel-electric submarine with a modular payload section to execute a variety of missions” in a December news release on the delivery of a first Orca test platform, an early prototype.

..

Besides Australia, the US and China, other countries working on UUVs include Canada, France, India, Iran, Israel, North Korea, Norway, Russia, South Korea, Ukraine and the United Kingdom, according to Sutton.

f_webp

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f_webp

 

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Andrey #Belousov’s appointment as Defense Minister is a direct result of the ongoing conflict between the ministry, as the customer, and the military-industrial complex as the producer (#Shoigu vs #Chemezov/#Manturov). Questioning who won or lost misses the point—#Putin's goal is to enhance arms production effectiveness and optimally meet military needs. In this context, Belousov is a logical choice. 1/5

Importantly, #Belousov will not manage military combat operations; this responsibility will bolster the autonomy of the General Staff. Although the Kremlin confirms that Valery #Gerasimov remains in his post, there are uncertainties about the permanence of his position.2/5

#Shoigu has been appointed Secretary of the Security Council. To understand this move, consider why Putin appointed Dmitry #Medvedev as his deputy at the Security Council in January 2020: to keep him close yet detached from the 'system' where finding an alternative role would be challenging. This appointment also indicates that the actual significance of the Security Council in the hierarchy may not be as great as observers typically assume.3/5

Notorious hawk Nikolay #Patrushev has been dismissed, but will not disappear (we'll know soon). The post of Nikolay Patrushev is Nikolay Patrushev. He played an important ideological role but not so as the Secretary of the Security Council, but as an old Putin proxy and former head of the #FSB. He will continue to hold this role regardless of the official position he assumes.4/5

Despite the surprising nature of these reshuffles (and it's not the end), the overall policy and decision-making mechanisms will remain unchanged. Putin's primary objective is to enhance the state's capacity to support military needs more effectively, while most elements of the existing "structure" will stay intact.5/5

——-

Tom Clancy’s ghost writers are taking notes.

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9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Underwater drones are picking up the pace of development by a lot of navies.  These are much fancier than Ukraine uses,  but Ukraine is probably working on the underwater drones quite a bit.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/13/tech/australia-us-undersea-drones-ml-hnk-intl/index.html

Ghost Shark and Manta Ray protect the undersea realm. Sounds like the plot of a future Marvel movie, but in actual fact, it’s what could be the future of Pacific naval defenses.

Ghost Shark and Manta Ray are the names of prototype uncrewed underwater vehicles – UUVs or drones – introduced recently by Australia and the United States respectively.

Experts say the submersibles could represent the future of undersea warfare, showing the ability to exert power while minimizing the danger to human life.

The use of drones in aerial warfare has become commonplace. The US used them extensively during conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan beginning in the 1990s, and newer, cheaper drones have become key pieces of military hardware for both sides in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Kyiv has also built naval surface drones, which have inflicted heavy losses on the much larger and more expensive ships of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

“Ghost Shark will provide Navy with a stealthy, long-range autonomous undersea warfare capability that can conduct persistent intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR) and strike,” a statement from the Australian Defense Ministry said, adding that it expects the first production models to be delivered by the end of next year.

Australian officials and those from manufacturer Anduril Australia said they could not share any of the specs on Ghost Shark as those remain classified.

But they touted the speed with which the submersible has gone from idea to testing, with the program having started just two years ago.

“Being ahead of schedule, on budget, it’s pretty unheard of,” Shane Arnott, Anduril’s senior vice president for engineering, told reporters.

..

“I assume that they are all intended for roughly similar mission sets – persistent intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and strike capability, particularly in the anti-submarine domain,” Salisbury said.

The US Navy called the Boeing-built Orca UUV “a cutting-edge, autonomous, unmanned diesel-electric submarine with a modular payload section to execute a variety of missions” in a December news release on the delivery of a first Orca test platform, an early prototype.

..

Besides Australia, the US and China, other countries working on UUVs include Canada, France, India, Iran, Israel, North Korea, Norway, Russia, South Korea, Ukraine and the United Kingdom, according to Sutton.

f_webp

f_webp

f_webp

 

sandboxx dropped a great episode on this the other day

 

 

sub brief is also a good follow

https://youtube.com/@subbrief?feature=shared
 


 

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

It’s time to quietly lift that restriction. I can’t believe we were actually enforcing it. Russia getting within artillery range of Kharkiv is going to be a disaster 

Edited by B00M
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These are the kind of leaflets that are given to moronic soldiers of the Russian army to motivate them not to retreat. Move forward or you'll go to jail for 10 years. It's better to kill yourself than surrender to the enemy.

And only thanks to God’s chosen Vladimir Putin can you win. Kneel before him and kiss his feet.

This is no longer an army, this is a cult, the likes of which we have not seen for a long time, this is Aum Shinrikyo multiplied by 1000. Who would have thought that such a medieval approach would be possible in our era?

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