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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

With Blinken’s visit and comments (however you interpret them) and Mike Johnson’s comments and the stuff coming out of NATO, England, even Germany, it feels like somebody is working to get everybody on the same page in terms of letting the Ukrainians hit whatever they feel they need to hit, regardless of borders or the origin of the weapons.

France is getting there, too. This story is from Monday.

French parliament asks authorities to allow Ukraine to hit Russian territory with French weapons
 

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35 minutes ago, DaggerHorns said:

Ukraine Ceasefire Talk Is Putin's Bid for 'Respite': Kyiv Deputy

11 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Putin’s surge is not doing so well it seems, and/or they are worried about what’s coming (F-16s).  

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/989040.html

Quote

Putin is afraid of the success of the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland, is desperately trying to disrupt it, and therefore his entourage is sending false signals about their supposed readiness for a ceasefire in Ukraine, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said.

"Why are Russian 'sources' suddenly telling the media that Putin is willing to halt the war at the current battle lines? It’s simple. Putin is desperately trying to derail the Peace Summit in Switzerland on June 15-16. He is scared of its success. His entourage sends these phony signals of alleged readiness for a cease-fire despite the fact that Russian troops continue to brutally attack Ukraine while their missiles and drones rain down on Ukrainian cities and communities.," Kuleba wsaid on the social network.

Still think it’s more about regrouping and resupplying/reconstituting Russian forces. 

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6 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

8,500 rounds off 155mm… that a day or 2 worth. That small of an amount being part of a package makes me worry about Germany

 

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Interesting shakeup here. How many generals do they have if it's supposedly going to make a difference in their ability to provide rest to current front line troops??

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/24/ukraine-generals-front-line-russia-soldiers/

Ukraine to fire generals and send them to front lineMove to cut top brass by two thirds aims to boost morale among rank and file soldiers feeling the heat from Russian aggression.

Spoiler

Ukraine to fire generals and send them to front line
Move to cut top brass by two thirds aims to boost morale among rank and file soldiers feeling the heat from Russian aggression

James Kilner
24 May 2024 • 8:27pm

32
Volodymyr Zelensky addresses marines in Kyiv. The Ukrainian president is facing a manpower problem

Ukraine plans to sack some of its army generals and send them to the front line in an effort to boost morale among soldiers.

Kyiv has been struggling against waves of Russian attacks as it loses ground in the eastern Donetsk region.

Soldiers have complained they are outmanned and outgunned and that the military’s upper ranks are bloated.

The army has not said how many generals would be reassigned but it said it would cut around two thirds of top staff.

A Ukrainian soldier carrying a mortar shell in Chasiv Yar
A Ukrainian soldier carrying a mortar shell in Chasiv Yar. The army is under pressure from increased Russian attacks CREDIT: Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu via Getty
“With the released personnel, it is planned to replenish units at the operational and tactical levels, as well as military combat units,” said Brig Gen Yevhen Ostryansky, head of Ukrainian military defence planning.

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Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine has looked to modernise its military in line with Nato countries. 

As well as reducing the number of generals, that means empowering non-commissioned officers and junior officers to make battlefield decisions.

Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers were trained by Nato forces in Europe last year and Nato military planners integrated ahead of the country’s much-hyped counter-offensive.

Ukrainian army medics treat wounded soldiers at a stabilization point
Ukrainian army medics treat wounded soldiers at a stabilization point CREDIT: Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu via Getty
However, with the counter-offensive proving a disappointment and Russia steadily making gains on the ground, Ukraine is under pressure to bolster frontline forces and give tired units a rest.

The recruitment drive it was banking on has not panned out as hoped.

In his briefing, Gen Ostryansky said that strengthened recruitment rules and the redeployment of generals from rear command centres to frontline combat units would allow more exhausted soldiers to rest.

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“This will make it possible to rotate units that perform combat tasks in the combat zone for a long time,” he said.

Russia has been advancing along the front line in Ukraine since October, and earlier this month it opened a new front north of Kharkiv. 

Since he took over as commander in chief of Ukraine’s military in February, Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi has been credited with injecting more energy and purpose into Kyiv’s forces. 

He regularly tours front-line units and is a favourite among Ukrainian soldiers.

 

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19 minutes ago, Parliament said:

How good is that cage armor against Russian drones?

It’s an improvement on the cages we were making fun of Russia using for sure.  Theirs looked like a homemade chicken coop on top of the tanks, but evidently the idea does something.  

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Parliament said:

How good is that cage armor against Russian drones?

Abrams were clearly vulnerable to FPV attack. It’s alarming that we sent them to Ukraine with no additional protection. Anything is better than nothing 

Edited by B00M
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52 minutes ago, B00M said:

Abrams were clearly vulnerable to FPV attack. It’s alarming that we sent them to Ukraine with no additional protection. Anything is better than nothing 

I haven’t dug into this but I’m a little surprised we haven’t cracked Russia’s ability to remote pilot those things.  

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14 minutes ago, locodos said:

It amazes me that they are outfitting soldiers with really old tanks and guns but many reports say their long range missile technology and jamming technology are way ahead of us.  I’d guess corruption and stealing of funds is much easier on the basic weapon level though.  

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14 minutes ago, locodos said:

Causing a miss by "up to 50 feet" doesn't make a shit when the frag pattern of HIMARS and ATACMS is 150+ft. They still have inertial guidance - I'd be a little more suspicious of anonymous sources saying the russians are perfectly countering American arms. 

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34 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Causing a miss by "up to 50 feet" doesn't make a shit when the frag pattern of HIMARS and ATACMS is 150+ft. They still have inertial guidance - I'd be a little more suspicious of anonymous sources saying the russians are perfectly countering American arms. 

Yeah, that's an interesting point.  I was more focused on this quote...

"The Russians deployed electronic warfare, disabled satellite signals, and HIMARS became completely ineffective,"

I was a little bummed out by it.  But it also says they are working closely with the US to resolve the issues.  Which is a silver lining.  Better to find out now, problems with our weapons systems.

 

There have been a lot fewer Himars memes...  hopefully it was just a by product of political fuckery limiting the US supply.

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3 hours ago, Hook1997 said:

It amazes me that they are outfitting soldiers with really old tanks and guns but many reports say their long range missile technology and jamming technology are way ahead of us.  I’d guess corruption and stealing of funds is much easier on the basic weapon level though.  

I would imagine that their expensive stuff is somewhat locked up/secured, plus it’s more lucrative for the export market so more money is put into it.  Of course the corruption is still there, but it’s probably almost at the oligarch/general level and probably on paper.  Any theft would be found fairly fast.

At the tank/weapon depots though, it’s extremely easy for lower-ranking Russian NCOs and officers to rip a few things off here and there from tanks and smuggle them out of the base to sell on the black market - when those places get “inspected”, I’m sure the officers didn’t inspect a few hundred tanks at a depot, they probably just inspected a handful of tanks in pristine condition that were trotted out by the local commander, who may have slipped some money to said inspectors.  The inspectors didn’t want to crawl all over hundreds of tanks.

Early on when the Russians started losing a lot of hardware and started dipping into their reserves, there were a lot of reports of them finding their tank depots/storage full of tanks missing batteries, hoses, wiring - the kind of stuff that would be extremely easy to smuggle off the base.

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3 hours ago, locodos said:

Yeah, that's an interesting point.  I was more focused on this quote...

"The Russians deployed electronic warfare, disabled satellite signals, and HIMARS became completely ineffective,"

I was a little bummed out by it.  But it also says they are working closely with the US to resolve the issues.  Which is a silver lining.  Better to find out now, problems with our weapons systems.

 

There have been a lot fewer Himars memes...  hopefully it was just a by product of political fuckery limiting the US supply.

You have to assume Ukraine is doing the same to glonass. Is there any reason our weapons aren’t using combined gps/glonass/gnss positioning? 
 

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22 hours ago, Deej said:

Take the fucking handcuffs off Ukraine already. Fuck whatever weapons they are using. Russia is hitting inside Ukraine with Chinese, North Korean, and Iranian weaponry. Make it a fair fight. 

How absurd would it sound if we said we’d nuke China, NK, or Iran if Russia used their weapons against Ukraine? We would never say that because we’d never follow through. So stupid that we haven’t let Ukraine unleash hell on military targets at this point regardless of location

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Sounds like the GPS jammer is ground based sends a cone of GPS noise out into space. Very possible this is what they were testing around Kaliningrad when all those commercial flights lost GPS. Pentagon better find a solution quickly 

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28 minutes ago, B00M said:

Sounds like the GPS jammer is ground based sends a cone of GPS noise out into space. Very possible this is what they were testing around Kaliningrad when all those commercial flights lost GPS. Pentagon better find a solution quickly 

Conceptually it doesn’t seem like it would be that difficult to find the source.

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On 5/25/2024 at 6:37 PM, Hook1997 said:

It amazes me that they are outfitting soldiers with really old tanks and guns but many reports say their long range missile technology and jamming technology are way ahead of us.  I’d guess corruption and stealing of funds is much easier on the basic weapon level though.  

That's more than a little exaggeration. 

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Blinken and the larger administration's messaging has been so inconsistent and unclear on this but they seem to be moving ever so slowly (their MO for the duration of this war) in the right direction (see NYT article below).

 

 

Inside the White House, a Debate Over Letting Ukraine Shoot U.S. Weapons Into Russia

After a sobering trip to Kyiv, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken is urging the president to lift restrictions on how Ukraine can use American arms.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/us/politics/white-house-ukraine-weapons-russia.html#:~:text=Inside the White House%2C a,Ukraine can use American arms.

Spoiler

Smoke rising from a partially collapsed apartment building.
The aftermath of what Russia said was a Ukrainian attack on Belgorod, Russia, earlier this month.Credit...Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
David E. Sanger
By David E. Sanger
Reporting from Washington

May 22, 2024
Since the first American shipments of sophisticated weapons to Ukraine, President Biden has never wavered on one prohibition: President Volodymyr Zelensky had to agree to never fire them into Russian territory, insisting that would violate Mr. Biden’s mandate to “avoid World War III.”

But the consensus around that policy is fraying. Propelled by the State Department, there is now a vigorous debate inside the administration over relaxing the ban to allow the Ukrainians to hit missile and artillery launch sites just over the border in Russia — targets that Mr. Zelensky says have enabled Moscow’s recent territorial gains.

The proposal, pressed by Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken after a sobering visit to Kyiv last week, is still in the formative stages, and it is not clear how many of his colleagues among Mr. Biden’s inner circle have signed on. It has not yet been formally presented to the president, who has traditionally been the most cautious, officials said.

The State Department spokesman, Matthew A. Miller, declined to comment on the internal deliberations over Ukraine policy, including Mr. Blinken’s report after his return from Kyiv.

But officials involved in the deliberations said Mr. Blinken’s position had changed because the Russians had opened a new front in the war, with devastating results. Moscow’s forces have placed weapons right across the border from northeastern Ukraine, and aimed them at Kharkiv — knowing the Ukrainians would only be able to use non-American drones and other weaponry to target them in response.

In an interview with The New York Times this week, Mr. Zelensky said the inability to fire American missiles and other weaponry at military targets in Russia gave Moscow a “huge advantage.”

For months, Mr. Zelensky has been mounting attacks on Russian ships, oil facilities and electricity plants, but he has been doing so largely with Ukrainian-made drones, which don’t pack the power and speed of the American weapons. And increasingly, the Russians are shooting down the Ukrainian drones and missiles or sending them astray, thanks to improved electronic warfare techniques.

Now, the pressure is mounting on the United States to help Ukraine target Russian military sites, even if Washington wants to maintain its ban on attacking oil refineries and other Russian infrastructure with American-provided arms. Britain, usually in lockstep with Washington on war strategy, has quietly lifted its own restrictions, so that its “Storm Shadow” cruise systems can be used to target Russia more broadly.

The British foreign secretary, David Cameron, a former prime minister, said during a visit to Kyiv ahead of Mr. Blinken’s that Ukraine “absolutely has the right to strike back at Russia.”

The United States is now considering training Ukrainian troops inside the country, rather than sending them to a training ground in Germany. That would require putting American military personnel in Ukraine, something else that Mr. Biden has prohibited until now. It raises the question of how the United States would respond if the trainers, who would likely be based near the western city of Lviv, came under attack. The Russians have periodically targeted Lviv, though it is distant from the main areas of combat.

Another hint of a shift came in recent days. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, in repeating the usual administration position — “our expectation is that they continue to use the weapons that we’ve provided on targets inside of Ukraine” — seemed to suggest that there may be exceptions made for Russian aircraft operating in the safety of Russian territory, just over the border, enabling pilots to release glide bombs into eastern Ukraine.

“The aerial dynamic’s a little bit different,” Mr. Austin allowed, but he struggled to articulate the new standard. “And so — but again, don’t — don’t want to speculate on any — any one or — or any type of engagement here at the podium, so.”

When a reporter followed up by asking whether such aerial operations by the Russians were “off-limits or not off-limits?” Mr. Austin did not respond.

The Russians are accustomed to such debates, and they have been unsubtle in playing to American concerns about an escalation of the war.

This week they began very public exercises with the units that would be involved in the use of tactical nuclear weapons, the kind that would be used on Ukrainian troops. Russian news reports said it was “a response to provocative statements and threats from Western officials against Russia.”

But the administration appears less sensitive to such threats than it was in the early days of the war, or in October 2022, when there were fears that Russia, its forces failing, might use those weapons against Ukrainian military targets. During that incident, some administration officials, picking up conversations among Russian officers, feared there was a 50 percent chance a nuclear weapon could be detonated.

The current exercises, in contrast, are being dismissed as bluster and muscle-flexing.

In a notable break from the administration’s public position, Victoria Nuland, who left her position as No. 3 official in the State Department this spring, is now making a public argument that the administration needs to drop its ban on the use of its weapons against targets inside Russia.

“I think if the attacks are coming directly from over the line in Russia, that those bases ought to be fair game,” she said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.”

“I think it’s time for that because Russia has obviously escalated this war,” she added, noting that Russia’s attack on Kharkiv is an effort “to decimate it without ever having to put a boot on the ground. So I think it is time to give the Ukrainians more help hitting these bases inside Russia.”

Ms. Nuland was always among a far more hawkish camp inside the administration, and her view was in the minority. But over time she won more and more of the arguments over whether to send more sophisticated missiles and artillery systems to Ukraine, and each time Mr. Biden relented, the worst fears he had about escalation did not materialize.

In his interview with the Times, Mr. Zelensky dismissed fears of escalation, saying President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had already escalated the war. And he thought it unlikely that Mr. Putin would ever make good on his threat to unleash a nuclear weapon.

Mr. Biden and some of his aides are clearly not convinced. Over the past year they have said they believe there is some red line out there that would unleash a more severe reaction from Mr. Putin. They just don’t know exactly where that is, or what the reaction might be.

In private with Mr. Blinken last week and in his interview with The Times, Mr. Zelensky argued that at this desperate stage of the war, it was critical to let him use American weapons against Russian military units.

“This is part of our defense,” Mr. Zelensky told The Times. “How can we protect ourselves from these attacks? This is the only way.”

 

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Ukraine has been hitting airbases in Russia and has targeted a wealthy area in Moscow with drones. What is the restriction, exactly?

I would think Putin's home on the Black Sea would be an early target. It's about 300mi I think from Odessa.

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9 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Ukraine is at war. They should be able to attack their enemy however the fuck they want. And we should help 

Yep, like telling the Brits after we gave them destroyers they had to sit in port. Fuck that noise.

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2 hours ago, Bevo said:

Ukraine has been hitting airbases in Russia and has targeted a wealthy area in Moscow with drones. What is the restriction, exactly?

I would think Putin's home on the Black Sea would be an early target. It's about 300mi I think from Odessa.

They've hit Russia with Ukrainian made drones, not western supplied weapons. 

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

They've hit Russia with Ukrainian made drones, not western supplied weapons. 


Exactly

My only guess is NATO is hoping Russia starts to really sweat this SMO before restrictions are removed on the use of NATO weapons in Russia so Russia has real incentive to negotiate. Same with the $300B in frozen assets. We’re trying not to “escalate” by trying not to play all our cards… Russia signaling intent to negotiate a cease fire is likely total bullshit intended to make us keep holding. 

 

Edited by B00M
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2 hours ago, Bevo said:

Ukraine has been hitting airbases in Russia and has targeted a wealthy area in Moscow with drones. What is the restriction, exactly?

The 1000 km+ long range attacks are prop planes that are converted to UAVs. Ukraine has obeyed western restrictions on western weapons to all of our dismay

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7 hours ago, Parliament said:

Theoretically, how far could an F16 make it into Russia, launch its Storm Shadow, and make it back in one piece?  Or is Russian airspace still too controlled for that?

It’s got to be weird planning stuff like that - Ukraine has been methodically whittling their air defenses down, and stuff has been moved from Crimea into Russia proper,  both to take it out of range, but also stop the Ukrainians from hitting Russian infrastructure.  There’s no way the Russians are able to rapidly replace what’s been lost, unless they rob Peter to pay Paul, so there’s gotta be some gaps in their coverage.

We have F-16s now that do the Wild Weasel job, and we have a shitload of anti-radar missiles that we’ve been giving Ukraine that can be mounted in F-16s..so something will have to give.

For reference, this was a more recent Wild Weasel and I’m going to show my kid because we have to do a scale model of this over the summer.

1024px-USAF_F-16CJ.jpg

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