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Posted

So, there are more data points that would lead Trump towards inaction, but at some point, Russia totally ignoring him and doing what it wants with impunity, is going to push him to his limit. 
 


Forgetting of course the most salient point, which is that he’s Putin’s absolute bitch. Even if there isn’t kompromat, there’s clearly something Putin has that taco wants or at least strikes fear in the gaping cavity in his chest where a heart should be…
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Posted
4 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

It’s deliberate a deliberate gray zone probing action, designed entirely to see how NATO and the president will respond. Early returns— weakly.  Let’s see the outcome of the Article 4 mechanism (which is a fairly big deal to invoke) and what kind of unity emerges.  Either way, some other type of escalation from Russia is likely. 

I won't be surprised if we get a no-fly zone in western Ukraine, along with NATO air defenses either on the border or just inside Ukraine.

Well, I kind of would be, but that feels like where this is going - Europe is tired of Russia's bullshit, and Russia is being the proverbial bully and trying to project power when it's fairly weak - we're coming up on the 4th anniversary of the main invasion.  Imagine if it was 1994 and the US and its allies were still trying to liberate Kuwait or it was 2004 and we were still trying to take Kabul.  And we were fighting literally halfway around the world, and not next door like Russia.

Posted
5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

 Let’s see the outcome of the Article 4 mechanism (which is a fairly big deal to invoke) and what kind of unity emerges

So…2 weeks then?

 

Posted

I will also add— Russia has with this “error” entirely deflected attention away the clearly non-erroneous massive air raid on Ukraine at a time when we’ve allegedly demanded that stop or else.  Instead we are talking about what to do since they droned Poland. 
 

This is a classic of Russian negotiations: demand all of someone else’s cake and then act like they've conceded something by “settling” for only half. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I won't be surprised if we get a no-fly zone in western Ukraine, along with NATO air defenses either on the border or just inside Ukraine.

Well, I kind of would be, but that feels like where this is going - Europe is tired of Russia's bullshit, and Russia is being the proverbial bully and trying to project power when it's fairly weak - we're coming up on the 4th anniversary of the main invasion.  Imagine if it was 1994 and the US and its allies were still trying to liberate Kuwait or it was 2004 and we were still trying to take Kabul.  And we were fighting literally halfway around the world, and not next door like Russia.

A no-fly zone in Ukraine would require US support and intel at lease. I am far from confident this admin would do that.  It would be easily the most “escalatory” thing we’ve done since 2022. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Party_Taco said:

Forgetting of course the most salient point, which is that he’s Putin’s absolute bitch. Even if there isn’t kompromat, there’s clearly something Putin has that taco wants or at least strikes fear in the gaping cavity in his chest where a heart should be…

 

Narrator: “ There was kompromat”

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

tl/dr - Bullies either get their noses bloodied, or keep stealing your lunch.

Russian doctrine: escalate to deescalate. 
 

Oh, and they just got a shit ton of great intel on tactics and procedures if they ever decide to do it for “real.”

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Posted
1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

Narrator: “ There was kompromat”

At this point, would it matter?  Does Russia have evidence of him caught committing adultery? fucking porn stars? fucking kids? supporting the world's most notorious pedophile? engaging in self-dealing of unprecedented proportions?

He would neutralize any kompromat that comes his way: Fake! Hoax! Forged signature! AI generated!

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Posted

this youtube channel is clearly a Ukr friendly channel, and tends to over-celebrate on events that occur that look like Russia has been punched in the nose... BUT if this story is correct, and Ukr sent their new cruise missiles directly into 5 HQ sites in Donetsk, they killed a lot of higher ranking Russians.  Like Lt-Col or higher. 

 

its doubtful we will hear much from Russia on these attacks, it might be months before a story comes out that Col so-and-so along with 3 Komrades were killed in an explosion in Soviet  err Russian Donetsk Oblast.  But supposedly these HQ sites had been in place for years.  - which again, is why you need to move your HQ's around when the battlefield has weapons capable of attacking inside 700km   but hey Russia gonna Russia.

 

 

 

Posted
1 hour ago, Parliament said:

Which Tom Clancy novel should I read in preparation for what might be about to come?

If we are talking Tom Clancy Prime, as in when he was alive and writing the majority of the books with his name on the cover, there really aren't any (especially as he began to move away from Cold War conflicts). Maybe Red Storm Rising and other 80s staples such as The Third World War by Sir John Hackett (British Army offcer) and Team Yankee by Harold Coyle (a US Army officer serving in the 80s) which is set within the Third World War "universe" - the last two are extremely interesting as they were based on real-world NATO scenarios (and Coyle served within a NATO unit or two during the Cold War) and are very realistic.

The problem with all of those are they are 40 years old, based on 40-year-old technology, and based on alliances and countries that no longer exist (and so manpower numbers are all wrong), with the bonus that they had the Soviet Union at its zenith in terms of power projection.

I've been keeping tabs on this series - a guy is using some videogame engine (maybe ARMA or Total War or whatever the kids are playing) and with voice acting, etc., creating a WW III scenario in the 2030s where Russia has reconstituted its power.  Just ignore the graphics (it's an older engine it appears)

This is a compilation of the first 14 episodes he's done (the episodes started at under 5 minutes, moved up close to 10 minutes, and are now in the 13-20 minute range).

Yes, it requires you to believe that Russia could be rebuilt by somebody other than Putin the aftermath of the current war with Ukraine, but he incorporates modern military tech, and it's interesting.

 

Posted

There are another 4-5 episodes after that compilation video above. That was basically "Season 1" and "Season 2" starts off with Taiwan.

There are a few things that annoy me about it, but at the same time, I'm like "fuck, as much Tom Clancy and other techno thriller/military stuff that I read in the 80s, I could have made this series".  He's pretty thoughtful about a lot of stuff, and keeps a lot of stuff straight in such a vast series (in terms of geography and scope).

Anyways, here's his channel Flat Circle History - YouTube

 

So where can we talk about Fawn Hall and Oliver North tying the knot?

Posted
13 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Pretty sure @RDCanecutter has painted some miniatures of that.  Or he should if he hasn't.

Closest I came was Royalist Cavalry for an English Civil War campaign we were playing at the UT miniature wargaming club late 90s/early aughts.

The UT miniature wargaming club was totally non-UT students who wanted to use the big tables inside UT buildings. As a student, I was made President. I demanded to be called Caesar. UT required two more student officers, so my girlfriend was Vice-Prez and a grad-student in the French Department who never touched money became Treasurer.

We played many games, but that ECW campaign was golden. Battles consisted of people showing up with whatever they had painted. I painted up an officer figure customized as swinging a bottle, named "Lord Bristletwit," I'd drink a double whiskey and launch cavalry charges on pike blocks, 90% it shouldn't work but Bristletwit would always pull up the other 10%.

I went off to France and left my toys behind for the group, they kept playing Lord Bristltwit the way I had, some people were flinchy when facing that miniature toy horseman, as if he was a Chucky doll.

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