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Posted

So, there are more data points that would lead Trump towards inaction, but at some point, Russia totally ignoring him and doing what it wants with impunity, is going to push him to his limit. 
 


Forgetting of course the most salient point, which is that he’s Putin’s absolute bitch. Even if there isn’t kompromat, there’s clearly something Putin has that taco wants or at least strikes fear in the gaping cavity in his chest where a heart should be…
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Posted
4 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

It’s deliberate a deliberate gray zone probing action, designed entirely to see how NATO and the president will respond. Early returns— weakly.  Let’s see the outcome of the Article 4 mechanism (which is a fairly big deal to invoke) and what kind of unity emerges.  Either way, some other type of escalation from Russia is likely. 

I won't be surprised if we get a no-fly zone in western Ukraine, along with NATO air defenses either on the border or just inside Ukraine.

Well, I kind of would be, but that feels like where this is going - Europe is tired of Russia's bullshit, and Russia is being the proverbial bully and trying to project power when it's fairly weak - we're coming up on the 4th anniversary of the main invasion.  Imagine if it was 1994 and the US and its allies were still trying to liberate Kuwait or it was 2004 and we were still trying to take Kabul.  And we were fighting literally halfway around the world, and not next door like Russia.

Posted

I will also add— Russia has with this “error” entirely deflected attention away the clearly non-erroneous massive air raid on Ukraine at a time when we’ve allegedly demanded that stop or else.  Instead we are talking about what to do since they droned Poland. 
 

This is a classic of Russian negotiations: demand all of someone else’s cake and then act like they've conceded something by “settling” for only half. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I won't be surprised if we get a no-fly zone in western Ukraine, along with NATO air defenses either on the border or just inside Ukraine.

Well, I kind of would be, but that feels like where this is going - Europe is tired of Russia's bullshit, and Russia is being the proverbial bully and trying to project power when it's fairly weak - we're coming up on the 4th anniversary of the main invasion.  Imagine if it was 1994 and the US and its allies were still trying to liberate Kuwait or it was 2004 and we were still trying to take Kabul.  And we were fighting literally halfway around the world, and not next door like Russia.

A no-fly zone in Ukraine would require US support and intel at lease. I am far from confident this admin would do that.  It would be easily the most “escalatory” thing we’ve done since 2022. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Party_Taco said:

Forgetting of course the most salient point, which is that he’s Putin’s absolute bitch. Even if there isn’t kompromat, there’s clearly something Putin has that taco wants or at least strikes fear in the gaping cavity in his chest where a heart should be…

 

Narrator: “ There was kompromat”

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

tl/dr - Bullies either get their noses bloodied, or keep stealing your lunch.

Russian doctrine: escalate to deescalate. 
 

Oh, and they just got a shit ton of great intel on tactics and procedures if they ever decide to do it for “real.”

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Posted
1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

Narrator: “ There was kompromat”

At this point, would it matter?  Does Russia have evidence of him caught committing adultery? fucking porn stars? fucking kids? supporting the world's most notorious pedophile? engaging in self-dealing of unprecedented proportions?

He would neutralize any kompromat that comes his way: Fake! Hoax! Forged signature! AI generated!

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Posted

this youtube channel is clearly a Ukr friendly channel, and tends to over-celebrate on events that occur that look like Russia has been punched in the nose... BUT if this story is correct, and Ukr sent their new cruise missiles directly into 5 HQ sites in Donetsk, they killed a lot of higher ranking Russians.  Like Lt-Col or higher. 

 

its doubtful we will hear much from Russia on these attacks, it might be months before a story comes out that Col so-and-so along with 3 Komrades were killed in an explosion in Soviet  err Russian Donetsk Oblast.  But supposedly these HQ sites had been in place for years.  - which again, is why you need to move your HQ's around when the battlefield has weapons capable of attacking inside 700km   but hey Russia gonna Russia.

 

 

 

Posted
1 hour ago, Parliament said:

Which Tom Clancy novel should I read in preparation for what might be about to come?

If we are talking Tom Clancy Prime, as in when he was alive and writing the majority of the books with his name on the cover, there really aren't any (especially as he began to move away from Cold War conflicts). Maybe Red Storm Rising and other 80s staples such as The Third World War by Sir John Hackett (British Army offcer) and Team Yankee by Harold Coyle (a US Army officer serving in the 80s) which is set within the Third World War "universe" - the last two are extremely interesting as they were based on real-world NATO scenarios (and Coyle served within a NATO unit or two during the Cold War) and are very realistic.

The problem with all of those are they are 40 years old, based on 40-year-old technology, and based on alliances and countries that no longer exist (and so manpower numbers are all wrong), with the bonus that they had the Soviet Union at its zenith in terms of power projection.

I've been keeping tabs on this series - a guy is using some videogame engine (maybe ARMA or Total War or whatever the kids are playing) and with voice acting, etc., creating a WW III scenario in the 2030s where Russia has reconstituted its power.  Just ignore the graphics (it's an older engine it appears)

This is a compilation of the first 14 episodes he's done (the episodes started at under 5 minutes, moved up close to 10 minutes, and are now in the 13-20 minute range).

Yes, it requires you to believe that Russia could be rebuilt by somebody other than Putin the aftermath of the current war with Ukraine, but he incorporates modern military tech, and it's interesting.

 

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Posted

There are another 4-5 episodes after that compilation video above. That was basically "Season 1" and "Season 2" starts off with Taiwan.

There are a few things that annoy me about it, but at the same time, I'm like "fuck, as much Tom Clancy and other techno thriller/military stuff that I read in the 80s, I could have made this series".  He's pretty thoughtful about a lot of stuff, and keeps a lot of stuff straight in such a vast series (in terms of geography and scope).

Anyways, here's his channel Flat Circle History - YouTube

 

So where can we talk about Fawn Hall and Oliver North tying the knot?

Posted
13 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Pretty sure @RDCanecutter has painted some miniatures of that.  Or he should if he hasn't.

Closest I came was Royalist Cavalry for an English Civil War campaign we were playing at the UT miniature wargaming club late 90s/early aughts.

The UT miniature wargaming club was totally non-UT students who wanted to use the big tables inside UT buildings. As a student, I was made President. I demanded to be called Caesar. UT required two more student officers, so my girlfriend was Vice-Prez and a grad-student in the French Department who never touched money became Treasurer.

We played many games, but that ECW campaign was golden. Battles consisted of people showing up with whatever they had painted. I painted up an officer figure customized as swinging a bottle, named "Lord Bristletwit," I'd drink a double whiskey and launch cavalry charges on pike blocks, 90% it shouldn't work but Bristletwit would always pull up the other 10%.

I went off to France and left my toys behind for the group, they kept playing Lord Bristltwit the way I had, some people were flinchy when facing that miniature toy horseman, as if he was a Chucky doll.

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Posted
Closest I came was Royalist Cavalry for an English Civil War campaign we were playing at the UT miniature wargaming club late 90s/early aughts.
The UT miniature wargaming club was totally non-UT students who wanted to use the big tables inside UT buildings. As a student, I was made President. I demanded to be called Caesar. UT required two more student officers, so my girlfriend was Vice-Prez and a grad-student in the French Department who never touched money became Treasurer.
We played many games, but that ECW campaign was golden. Battles consisted of people showing up with whatever they had painted. I painted up an officer figure customized as swinging a bottle, named "Lord Bristletwit," I'd drink a double whiskey and launch cavalry charges on pike blocks, 90% it shouldn't work but Bristletwit would always pull up the other 10%.
I went off to France and left my toys behind for the group, they kept playing Lord Bristltwit the way I had, some people were flinchy when facing that miniature toy horseman, as if he was a Chucky doll.

There was a war gaming club at UT?!?

Information I could’ve used 30 years ago. Thanks for nothing!
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Posted

It would behoove everybody if US & NATO commanders would be in backchannel communications with their Russian counterparts in the field asking them if they want to be destroyed and wiped off the face of the Earth because of Putin’s fucking around? 
Because those Russians know that will be the outcome of any showdown. 
Not all of them are that stupid to take the risk of continuing to wreck their own motherland.

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Posted
26 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

It would behoove everybody if US & NATO commanders would be in backchannel communications with their Russian counterparts in the field asking them if they want to be destroyed and wiped off the face of the Earth because of Putin’s fucking around? 
Because those Russians know that will be the outcome of any showdown. 
Not all of them are that stupid to take the risk of continuing to wreck their own motherland.

That only works if they believe you would follow through. And everything we've seen from current potus suggests he doesn't follow through on threats.  Empty threats are really no threats at all, rather a sign of weakness.

Posted
20 hours ago, Disco Strangler said:

At this point, would it matter?  Does Russia have evidence of him caught committing adultery? fucking porn stars? fucking kids? supporting the world's most notorious pedophile? engaging in self-dealing of unprecedented proportions?

He would neutralize any kompromat that comes his way: Fake! Hoax! Forged signature! AI generated!

As historically a Trump denial gives you a good indication of what actually happened, Trump‘s emphasis on debunking the “Russia Russia Russia” hoax means that Russia was actively engaged in interfering with the election process.   we already know this.

I therefore assume that Russia has all the evidence of communications with, and assistance to Trump in the various elections, all of which would be actually illegal.  And given that orange narcissist ‘s need to say he won bigly, Putin providing evidence that he got Trump elected would in fact be a problem for Trump.    

My opinion is based on nothing but the already proven evidence Russia actively assisted Trump in the election - and the unfortunate existence of the Roger Stones and Paul Manaforts in the world.   I refuse to believe that Russia’s activities weren’t even greater than the evidence we have.     Putin challenging that Trump actually won the elections fairly would, I think, be a threat sufficient to blackmail him on other issues like Ukraine.    

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

As historically a Trump denial gives you a good indication of what actually happened, Trump‘s emphasis on debunking the “Russia Russia Russia” hoax means that Russia was actively engaged in interfering with the election process.   we already know this.

I therefore assume that Russia has all the evidence of communications with, and assistance to Trump in the various elections, all of which would be actually illegal.  And given that orange narcissist ‘s need to say he won bigly, Putin providing evidence that he got Trump elected would in fact be a problem for Trump.    

My opinion is based on nothing but the already proven evidence Russia actively assisted Trump in the election - and the unfortunate existence of the Roger Stones and Paul Manaforts in the world.   I refuse to believe that Russia’s activities weren’t even greater than the evidence we have.     Putin challenging that Trump actually won the elections fairly would, I think, be a threat sufficient to blackmail him on other issues like Ukraine.    

Getting out into the weeds here, while such evidence - presuming it exists - would damage tfg's ego, I'm not so sure it damages his brand.  Those who have drunk the kool-aid, have, well, drunk the kool-aid.  There is no fact that will make them pivot.  They'll say, "Well, Putin was 'directionally correct'" and just keep on down their path of submission to their orange god.  From there it's a short hop to "well if our orange idol says Ukraine is bad, and his buddy Putin says Ukraine is bad - then Ukraine bad."  We're essentially there already.  

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Even with lackluster American support, I presume a Polish brush fire would sell end badly for Russia?

Depends on the scope of the brush fire...and that it doesn't expand into a wider conflagration.  Would end poorly for Belorussia as well, I'd imagine.  

4e91tq.jpg

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Chad Fuck said:

Getting out into the weeds here, while such evidence - presuming it exists - would damage tfg's ego, I'm not so sure it damages his brand.  Those who have drunk the kool-aid, have, well, drunk the kool-aid.  There is no fact that will make them pivot.  They'll say, "Well, Putin was 'directionally correct'" and just keep on down their path of submission to their orange god.  From there it's a short hop to "well if our orange idol says Ukraine is bad, and his buddy Putin says Ukraine is bad - then Ukraine bad."  We're essentially there already.  

oh, I hear ya.   But I don’t believe that all of those who voted for Trump are Kool-Aid drinkers.   Most, absolutely. But in elections were small, single digit percentages decide the outcome, proof that he allied with Russia to steal the election and is probably letting innocent civilians in Ukraine die to prevent Russia from telling us that has to give pause to at least some of those people.   I don’t think that the Rogan Bros are totally in on everything he says.   A lot of those idiots are attracted to him because he is a successful winner in their minds.  If he is a cheating loser who is such a wimp he can be blackmailed by Putin, that undercuts some of his attractiveness to that crowd.   

It doesn’t make any difference, it’s all hypothetical, and we are stuck with the orange toddler in chief until the next election or coup. 

Edited by Gatorubet
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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

By the way @Parliament this could be seen as a modern take on Red Storm Rising, and Hackett's Third World War and Team Yankee - it gets into day-by-day actions, ranging from infantry at the squad level all the way up to strategic missile launches.  It's actually pretty decent. I've watched the episodes individually as they came out, but watched 15-20 minutes of the compilation above, and I gotta give the guy props for putting it together the way he did.  I need to poke around his channel to see what game engine he used and how he did it.

Season one - Russia rebuilt after losing in Ukraine, and after a coup of Putin in 2026.

Season two - China going after Taiwan (Russia went into the Baltics, China goes after Taiwan to split US forces).

Edited by atomheartbevo
Posted
On 9/10/2025 at 1:58 AM, 956 Worldwide said:

Worth noting that as Poland shoots down these drones, Russia has a massive buildup of troops for Západ exercises in Belarus just across the border. 

I can’t imagine that Russia has a lot of spare air defense assets to protect troops involved in the Belarus exercise.  I have no idea what Air defense assets Belarus has on its own.  I just assumed that Russia had “borrowed” them in the interim.  if that is correct, I would imagine that the combination of Polish and Nordic air power would wreck some shop if they attacked - with France, Germany, and the British yet to follow.    I assume the United States would evaluate the article 5 consequences for two weeks….

If Russia did bring air defense assets with them, that is robbing Peter to pay Paul, and Ukraine should be lobbing drones and flamingos at more infrastructure right now.  I can’t imagine in this day and age of satellite imagery and communications theft that the Russian exercise Air defense question has not been answered. 

Posted

Upon further reflection, I think any thought of Russian invasion of Poland or event the Baltic States at this point is a nice kind of thought experiment, but wholly unlikely. 

The Russian military is a spent force offensively.  Do they really want to go up against a fresh enemy dying to go after them in Poland?  Is examining or expanding the cracks in-between NATO members really worth the risk?  What if instead of driving them apart, he drives them together?  I know Putin is a gambler, but I think even he doesn't want to gamble this big.  No, this is really just a big poke in the eye to tfg, a way to further drive wedges in between NATO members without exposing himself to the real risk of actual combat with NATO.   That's it.

 

Posted
2 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:


There was a war gaming club at UT?!?

Information I could’ve used 30 years ago. Thanks for nothing!

Friend of mine had a game shop in Dobie for a bit, later moved up toward Koenig. Blanking on the name but doesn't matter now because he sold it then it closed.

We used to have painting parties in the Dobie store, knock out a few minis and get jacked up on giant Taco Bell drinks.

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Posted
13 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Friend of mine had a game shop in Dobie for a bit, later moved up toward Koenig. Blanking on the name but doesn't matter now because he sold it then it closed.

We used to have painting parties in the Dobie store, knock out a few minis and get jacked up on giant Taco Bell drinks.

Now you're just taunting me. 

Posted
15 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Friend of mine had a game shop in Dobie for a bit, later moved up toward Koenig. Blanking on the name but doesn't matter now because he sold it then it closed.

We used to have painting parties in the Dobie store, knock out a few minis and get jacked up on giant Taco Bell drinks.

IMG_5196.gif.170d5e9c46fc9eba5bf937749b43ce19.gif

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