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Posted
3 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

1) Russian dressing is the only proper dressing on a Reuben.  Putting Thousand Island on it just turns it into a kosher Big Mac.

2) Russian dressing isn't proper Russian dressing unless it has caviar in it.

3) Aside from Katz's, the best Reuben I've ever had is at Scholz's.  Damn--I'm hungry.

Katz's is great. Langer's in LA ftw. Better bread and more tender pastrami. 

there was a holy shit moment in Dublin

 

Do Trump's negotiators listen mainly to Russia? SPIEGEL has the transcript of a crisis switch, which shows how deep the distrust is among Europeans - also among Chancellor Merz and President Macron.

https://archive.is/k0bq8

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Posted
1 hour ago, morehornsepower said:

Putin apparently clarified his 'peace plan' today: "Give us what we want, or we'll continue to try to take it by force."

Fuck this guy. And fuck anyone who tries to justify taking his side.

What kind of fucked up simulation are we in where we don't even pretend to be the champion of democracy or the rule of law anymore?   😡😡😡

 

die-hard-john-mc-clane.gif

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Posted
1 hour ago, Chad Fuck said:

Is this even a real question?  They literally took Russia's "peace" plan, put it on WH stationary, and sent it out as the US plan.  You tell me.

I think they refrain from assuming that the reader knows everything alleged about the machinations, and provide the perspective you're looking for. I'd say that's a good thing. 

Quote

While the Europeans always publicly praise Washington's new initiative, the paper shows that in addition to Merz and Macron, other participants of the Schalte do not trust the two US emissaries.

 

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Posted
59 minutes ago, Chopper said:

in addition to Merz and Macron, other participants of the Schalte do not trust the two US emissaries.

I'd think poorly - as in, so poorly they could never recover in my eyes - of anyone who DID trust those two absolute in-over-their-head clowns.

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, B00M said:

How much of Russias gold reserve has been sold? How much money do they have left? 

Putin Laughing GIF by euronews
 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

Note that while Russian gold reserves are listed as 2,332.7 tonnes, of the 405.7 tonnes held by the National Wealth Fund at the beginning of the war, only 173.1 remained as of November 2025. From November Russia started selling physical NWF gold on the internal gold market, whereas it had previously sold it to the Central Bank, to maintain NWF liquidity while preserving physical reserves

Supposedly $215 billion earlier this year on hand.

Edit: last month it was mentions they had to dump a shitload of money into their rail infrastructure because it was losing a lot of money.  They probably had more gold than publicly known, but things are probably worse than publicly known.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Posted
covering a jeep in mines/C4 charges and ghost riding it into a bunch of enemies is PEAK Battlefield

Former Battlefield dev here: Can confirm

Only thing that comes close is ejection seat + RPG + return to plane
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Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

That has to be the fourth or fifth drone strike on Syzran since August.  I think that name has been coming up an awful lot the last six months

They hit it multiple times in 2024, and hit it this year starting in February

Russia's Syzran oil refinery suspended operations following a drone attack, sources say | Reuters - February this year

Drones attack energy facilities in Russia, Syzran Oil Refinery hit - November this year

Quote

The Syzran Refinery in Samara region is part of the Samara group of refineries acquired by Rosneft in May 2007.

The plant’s crude distillation capacity equals 8.5 mln tons (65.1 mln barrels) per year. The refinery processes West Siberian crude (produced by Yuganskneftegaz) as well as feedstock from Rosneft’s oil fields in the Samara region (Samaraneftegaz). The plant’s deep conversion facilities include catalytic reforming, fuel hydrotreatment, light hydrocracking, catalytic and thermal cracking, isomerization, bitumen production, and gas fractioning units. Syzran Refinery produces a wide range of petroleum products, such as high-quality motor fuels, jet fuel, bitumen, etc. The construction of the Syzran Refinery began before the Great Patriotic War, and the first batch of oil products was produced in 1942. In early 1970’s, the plant capacities were expanded and modernized: the crude oil distillation capacity grew by 40%, hydrotreatment and bitumen production capacities grew by more than 70%.

Quote

The enterprise continues implementing activities aimed at reduction of non-recoverable losses. As a result, non-recoverable losses have been reduced to 0.66% of the summary processing volumes.

In 2014, 7.14 million tons of oil were processed at the Syzran Refinery, an increase by 3.8% versus 2013, and 6.8 million tons of marketable commodities were produced. The refining depth was 65.99%. Gasoline and diesel fuel of the grade Euro-4 and 5 are being manufactured.

 

ae2o7b.jpg

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Posted
22 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Again.  Faster.

I'm guessing their strategy here is a little payback for Chechens torturing Ukrainian POWs, a little payback for the TikTok Brigades pretending to fight in Ukraine and filming themselves attacking Ukraine for Mother Russia and flooding Chechen social media with the videos, and probably more about telling the Chechen people "Hey, your leaders are backing this war in Ukraine, and Putin is not willing to spend on air defenses for you, why would you send your sons and husbands off for this?"

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Posted

https://www.threads.com/@_nickmelnick/post/DR4v9hKDJY6?xmt=AQF0OjxG7bz7qHRLJVckqEOYZu9v0gL3rMxShGhts56amg

️Ukrainian kamikaze drones strike a Russian "Su-24M" bomber in Crimea.As part of the operation, the following were also hit: - an antenna inside a radome; - a 39N6 “Kasta-2E2” radar station; - an “Orion” UAV; - two 48Ya6-K1 “Podlyot” radar stations; - a freight train and a Ural truck.

 

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Posted
48 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:

Asian Dawn?

The 90s porn actress?

9 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

https://www.threads.com/@_nickmelnick/post/DR4v9hKDJY6?xmt=AQF0OjxG7bz7qHRLJVckqEOYZu9v0gL3rMxShGhts56amg

️Ukrainian kamikaze drones strike a Russian "Su-24M" bomber in Crimea.As part of the operation, the following were also hit: - an antenna inside a radome; - a 39N6 “Kasta-2E2” radar station; - an “Orion” UAV; - two 48Ya6-K1 “Podlyot” radar stations; - a freight train and a Ural truck.

The train and the truck can be replaced easily enough (maybe not the train engine).

Everything else?  Probably not.

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Posted
1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

https://www.threads.com/@_nickmelnick/post/DR4v9hKDJY6?xmt=AQF0OjxG7bz7qHRLJVckqEOYZu9v0gL3rMxShGhts56amg

️Ukrainian kamikaze drones strike a Russian "Su-24M" bomber in Crimea.As part of the operation, the following were also hit: - an antenna inside a radome; - a 39N6 “Kasta-2E2” radar station; - an “Orion” UAV; - two 48Ya6-K1 “Podlyot” radar stations; - a freight train and a Ural truck.

 

Where you been man?  

Welcome news.

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Posted (edited)

What a load of shit.

Being located in Europe is a requirement for all new members. As such, the alliance cannot, by definition, be composed of a majority of non-European nations and, therefore, cannot be "perpetually expanding," since the list of non-NATO countries is now somewhat limited.

 

Edited by bolverk
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Posted
6 minutes ago, bolverk said:

What a load of shit.

Being located in Europe is a requirement for all new members. As such, the alliance cannot, by definition, be composed of a majority of non-European nations and, therefore, cannot be "perpetually expanding," since the list of non-NATO countries is now somewhat limited.

 

Having no knowledge of this, does that mean Mexico can't join?

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Jameslaw121 said:

Having no knowledge of this, does that mean Mexico can't join?

Correct. They cannot.

Edit: It's the same reason Japan and South Korea haven't joined.

Edited by bolverk
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Posted
29 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Correct. They cannot.

Edit: It's the same reason Japan and South Korea haven't joined.

Japan and South Korea Make sense. But Mexico is actually in the North Atlantic. Not that it really matters, just learned something new today.

Posted
32 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Correct. They cannot.

Edit: It's the same reason Japan and South Korea haven't joined.

And Australia.  Those three would join if they could,   We used to have SEATO which was the Asian equivalent of NATO.

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Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

"Overnight on 4–5 December, Ukrainian long-range drones reportedly struck the gas terminal at Russia’s Temryuk port on the Sea of Azov, just across the Kerch Strait from occupied Crimea. Russian regional authorities themselves confirmed a UAV attack and subsequent fire that damaged port infrastructure, while videos from the scene show large fuel fires and secondary detonations. Open-source analysis indicates the blaze centered on a gas terminal used for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), with OSINT accounts suggesting that a nearby Gazprom-linked oil terminal may also have been within the target area. Temryuk is a key logistics hub handling LPG, oil products, and petrochemicals—commodities that help fuel Russia’s war machine and sustain its occupation of Ukrainian territory."

The Temryuk NGL Terminal is ~ 50 miles from the Kerch Strait, on the Sea of Asov.

image.png.df1d9d16479c147e6861b233e1ee982e.png

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) is a commercial term, either the purity Natural Gas Liquid (NGL) products, or some combination of them. The terminal receives NGL's via rail, has ~ 100,000 bbl (4.5 MM gallons) of NGL storage on site, and loads the LPG tankers. More evidence of Ukraine's approach to systematically "degrade" the Russian Oil & Gas Infrastructure.

Good for them in choosing a location that is relatively remote, though it has a smallish footprint.  The orientation of the storage tanks, or bullets, are pointed towards each other, rather than away. Not the ideal orientation, but changing that would point the tanks at the rail rack and tanker loading/unloading berth.  Either way, it's a juicy target. 

image.thumb.png.05e98f06dfda7317df1957944376c7ca.png

 

 

Edited by PTINS
typo
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Posted
1 hour ago, Vertuzzi said:

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/germany-russia-war-nato-secret-plan-8ce43a8d?st=gZjMt3&reflink=article_copyURL_share
 

Interesting article from the journal last week. The section regarding the bridge closing in northwestern Germany, which cut off the only railway link serving the North Sea port of Nordenham, really drives home just how critical infrastructure protection is during war. 

Critical infrastructure is not designed to be war proof.  A single drone with a grenade is a scary thought.

Yes, I understand and support Ukraines targeting of Russian O&G export infrastructure to cripple the war machine.

But longer term, removing 10% of the world oil production, and the closest source of natural gas to Europe, is going to have longer term effects, on everyone. The coupling of war reparations and lifting of sanctions is going to be a thorny issue that will take time.

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Posted
24 minutes ago, PTINS said:

Critical infrastructure is not designed to be war proof.  A single drone with a grenade is a scary thought.

Yes, I understand and support Ukraines targeting of Russian O&G export infrastructure to cripple the war machine.

But longer term, removing 10% of the world oil production, and the closest source of natural gas to Europe, is going to have longer term effects, on everyone. The coupling of war reparations and lifting of sanctions is going to be a thorny issue that will take time.

Would you say that Europe’s plan to phase out Russian LNG by 2027 is still obtainable? Imports from the US and Qatar are increasing, just wondering if it would be enough to completely offset the Russian pipeline. 

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Posted
32 minutes ago, Vertuzzi said:

Would you say that Europe’s plan to phase out Russian LNG by 2027 is still obtainable? Imports from the US and Qatar are increasing, just wondering if it would be enough to completely offset the Russian pipeline. 

That is a complex question. "Phasing out" is a price sensitive term, and human nature generally means anybody will do anything for the right price. Putting the LNG "sanctions" aside, at the end of the day, a spot cargo of Russian LNG will be cheaper than others, simply because the transit time from Russia is less than the US Gulf Coast, or the Middle East, or Australia.

The capacity of the two Nordsteam Pipelines was ~ 10 BCF/day, which is ~ 4-5 world class LNG Plants. That is a big hole to fill. Russia's total LNG capacity is ~ 5 BCD, some of which was earmarked for Europe.

Some of these came on line recently, in the Arctic and St. Petersburg, and how much they can actually produce is kind of a mystery.  It is new enough, and given the challenges of the arctic, and Russia business in general, demonstrating reliability is a prerequisite for longer term contracts. In many cases, the companies/countries that need the LNG are also owners in the liquefaction/export facilities, so they take their ownership share of the LNG in-kind, rather than depending on third party sells.

LNG is a very different animal than oil or refined products. In some cases, though there is a point to point "contract" for the LNG, that contract is in limbo until the ship docks at the destination. In times past, it was commonplace to have a ship change direction in transit and go to another destination, without any significant contract repercussions. While on the high seas, it is fair game for the highest bidder.  Even within the local gas market, that information is closely guarded, because a huge influx of gas moves the market.

US LNG costs will become more expensive, because the underlying demand for natural gas will increase. 

In the early 2000's, gas was expensive, so the US started building LNG import terminals.   

image.png.8e504a2300bd0d2b7d673b7cfda795b0.png

The Chenier Plant at Sabine Pass started as an import terminal in 2008. We received LNG imports into Louisiana ~ 2010 (I think we received 4 cargo's), and in 2012, Chenier received a FERC permit to building export facilities. The combination of horizontal  drilling and hydraulic fracturing of shale, unlocked the gas resources, and all bets changed. 

Biden's election in 2020 changed the narrative, and Russia's Invasion and Nordstream's explosion spiked gas prices, for a bit.

The Donald, and new reality of the US stepping in to fill the European void from losing Russian gas is not an issue from a resource/capacity perspective. The price of the LNG is the first big question.

Domestic gas prices have doubled in the past few months. Cheap oil stops the drilling in the Permian, which is primarily based on oil economics. Appalachia is all gas, much higher near term gas potential than the Permian, but moving gas south to the Gulf Coast is limited by pipeline capacity. 

Sending US LNG gas to Europe while increasing domestic gas prices is going to leave a mark. The Eastern US is already seeing increased gas bills because of administrative and infrastructure costs. Layering in higher commodity prices will not be well received.

And, as we all appreciate, the whims of a new administration in DC, is hard to predict.

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Posted (edited)

https://www.threads.com/@militarynewsua/post/DR5dUahiKqX?xmt=AQF04wylzu6q5PH-wlI1ni2PXTykDVS1i4m8bcT8tRZW4g

️Right now, kamikaze drones are attacking targets in 🇷🇺Ryazan. 
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https://www.threads.com/@militarynewsua/post/DR5iJdviBbo?xmt=AQF0tahQ--5YsDpnVeHqEJ-VjhcKjv_OvnPYRY3Tn6fwHQ

️It is reported that kamikaze drones attacked the 🇷🇺Ryazan Oil Refinery. 
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^Hitting it again

Edited by MillerEP
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Posted
1 hour ago, PTINS said:

That is a complex question. "Phasing out" is a price sensitive term, and human nature generally means anybody will do anything for the right price. Putting the LNG "sanctions" aside, at the end of the day, a spot cargo of Russian LNG will be cheaper than others, simply because the transit time from Russia is less than the US Gulf Coast, or the Middle East, or Australia.

The capacity of the two Nordsteam Pipelines was ~ 10 BCF/day, which is ~ 4-5 world class LNG Plants. That is a big hole to fill. Russia's total LNG capacity is ~ 5 BCD, some of which was earmarked for Europe.

Some of these came on line recently, in the Arctic and St. Petersburg, and how much they can actually produce is kind of a mystery.  It is new enough, and given the challenges of the arctic, and Russia business in general, demonstrating reliability is a prerequisite for longer term contracts. In many cases, the companies/countries that need the LNG are also owners in the liquefaction/export facilities, so they take their ownership share of the LNG in-kind, rather than depending on third party sells.

LNG is a very different animal than oil or refined products. In some cases, though there is a point to point "contract" for the LNG, that contract is in limbo until the ship docks at the destination. In times past, it was commonplace to have a ship change direction in transit and go to another destination, without any significant contract repercussions. While on the high seas, it is fair game for the highest bidder.  Even within the local gas market, that information is closely guarded, because a huge influx of gas moves the market.

US LNG costs will become more expensive, because the underlying demand for natural gas will increase. 

In the early 2000's, gas was expensive, so the US started building LNG import terminals.   

image.png.8e504a2300bd0d2b7d673b7cfda795b0.png

The Chenier Plant at Sabine Pass started as an import terminal in 2008. We received LNG imports into Louisiana ~ 2010 (I think we received 4 cargo's), and in 2012, Chenier received a FERC permit to building export facilities. The combination of horizontal  drilling and hydraulic fracturing of shale, unlocked the gas resources, and all bets changed. 

Biden's election in 2020 changed the narrative, and Russia's Invasion and Nordstream's explosion spiked gas prices, for a bit.

The Donald, and new reality of the US stepping in to fill the European void from losing Russian gas is not an issue from a resource/capacity perspective. The price of the LNG is the first big question.

Domestic gas prices have doubled in the past few months. Cheap oil stops the drilling in the Permian, which is primarily based on oil economics. Appalachia is all gas, much higher near term gas potential than the Permian, but moving gas south to the Gulf Coast is limited by pipeline capacity. 

Sending US LNG gas to Europe while increasing domestic gas prices is going to leave a mark. The Eastern US is already seeing increased gas bills because of administrative and infrastructure costs. Layering in higher commodity prices will not be well received.

And, as we all appreciate, the whims of a new administration in DC, is hard to predict.

Appreciate the info, mate. Certainly not my area of expertise but looking forward to researching more. Will be interesting to see if the Europeans are actually able to boost their renewable power output as significantly as they project through the end of this decade, which would supposedly offset LNG demand. Feels a bit too aggressive to me, though I’m certainly no expert on this matter. 

Posted
15 hours ago, MillerEP said:

https://www.threads.com/@militarynewsua/post/DR5dUahiKqX?xmt=AQF04wylzu6q5PH-wlI1ni2PXTykDVS1i4m8bcT8tRZW4g

️Right now, kamikaze drones are attacking targets in 🇷🇺Ryazan. 
1
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2

 

https://www.threads.com/@militarynewsua/post/DR5iJdviBbo?xmt=AQF0tahQ--5YsDpnVeHqEJ-VjhcKjv_OvnPYRY3Tn6fwHQ

️It is reported that kamikaze drones attacked the 🇷🇺Ryazan Oil Refinery. 
1
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2

 

^Hitting it again

Been hit more that South Austin's mom.

5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

They’ve hit that one oil refinery 9 times,

 

 

Guess not.  Not even close.

 

Serious question.  Why not put an M2 on every hard point and kill them WW2 style?

https://united24media.com/latest-news/ukraines-f-16s-just-got-a-new-add-on-and-its-shredding-enemy-drones-14058

 

 

Screenshot_20251206_080824_Chrome.jpg

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Been hit more that South Austin's mom.

 

Guess not.  Not even close.

 

Serious question.  Why not put an M2 on every hard point and kill them WW2 style?

https://united24media.com/latest-news/ukraines-f-16s-just-got-a-new-add-on-and-its-shredding-enemy-drones-14058

 

 

Screenshot_20251206_080824_Chrome.jpg

They're laser guided rockets, so they've got a way higher PK than gunsgunsguns

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Posted (edited)

Terrible article from the NYT:

 

Battlefield Picture Worsening for Ukraine as Trump Pushes Peace Plan

Russian forces have advanced on several fronts recently. President Vladimir V. Putin signaled after talks with U.S. officials that he was not budging from demands.
 
Listen to this article · 7:52 min Learn more
 
Soldiers in camouflage stand near artillery.
The 148th Artillery Brigade of the Ukrainian Army in October in the Zaporizhzhia region of eastern Ukraine.Credit...Tyler Hicks/The New York Times
Reporting from Kyiv, Ukraine
Dec. 6, 2025, 5:33 a.m. ET
It was a clear attempt to project Russian power.
Hours before meeting U.S. officials in Moscow this past week about their plan to end the war, President Vladimir V. Putin claimed that Russia’s forces had seized the strategic Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk after a monthslong fight.
The reality was murkier. Slivers of the city were still contested, according to battlefield maps and the Ukrainian military. But Mr. Putin’s claim, even if premature, reflected a trend shaping his unbending approach to negotiations: Russian forces are on the march.
“The Russians do have the upper hand,” said Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group. Ukraine is not yet at the point where it must capitulate, he said, but it “is looking weak enough that the Russians think that they can impose demands.”
Mr. Putin has ordered the Russian military to prepare for winter combat, signaling after the talks with U.S. officials that he is not budging from his hard-line demands. Mr. Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, has since held a series of discussions in Miami with Ukraine’s delegation — with another expected to take place on Saturday — that both sides called “constructive.”
 
As these statements were being released, Russia unleashed more than 650 drones and 51 missiles on towns and cities across Ukraine in an assault that began overnight on Friday and stretched through Saturday morning, Ukrainian officials said.
Image
Soldiers in camouflage stand in the dark, lit by a light on one of their helmets.
Ukrainian soldiers last month near Pokrovsk, in Ukraine’s Donetsk region.Credit...Anatolii Stepanov/Reuters
In recent weeks, Russian forces have advanced on several fronts. They are on the brink of capturing Pokrovsk, a onetime logistics hub in the eastern region of Donetsk, and have nearly encircled its neighbor, Myrnohrad. They are moving quicker in the southern region of Zaporizhzhia. They are pressing closer to the northeastern city of Kupiansk, and they are making gains around the eastern city of Siversk, according to battlefield maps, analysts and soldiers.
 
The advances have been slow and costly, in both lives and equipment. Ukrainian officials and analysts say Mr. Putin could still be years away from achieving his territorial goals. Chief among them is capturing the rest of the Donetsk region, which would give Russia all of the broader eastern Ukrainian area known as the Donbas.
 
But Russia’s pace is quickening, and incremental moves have started to add up. Moscow’s forces captured 505 square kilometers, or nearly 200 square miles, of territory in November, up from 267 square kilometers, or about 100 square miles, in October, according to the battlefield map maintained by DeepState, a Ukrainian group with ties to the military.
 
“The future looks really, really grim for Ukraine,” said Mr. Kastehelmi, the analyst. “I don’t see a clear path out.”
For now, Ukraine appears to have enough resources to keep the front line from collapsing. But it is bending. Mr. Putin has suggested that Ukraine, facing manpower shortages and uncertainty about Western aid, should concede to his demands before the war gets even worse.
The Russian leader, in an interview with an Indian news outlet that was published on Thursday, said Russia would take additional territory in Donetsk by whatever means necessary.
The Kremlin’s summer offensive, which was aimed at capturing all of Donetsk, produced limited gains. But starting in the fall, the tide there started to turn in Russia’s favor. After months of bombarding Pokrovsk with artillery, drones and glide bombs, Russian forces punched through a string of villages and settlements to fight their way into the city.
 
 
“Things started to fall apart a bit on our side” starting in September, said Ihor, a Ukrainian drone pilot in the area who gave only his first name, according to military protocol. “The line just began collapsing from exhaustion.”
Russian forces are sending fixed-wing Molniya drones and waves of mini kamikaze drones that carry explosives, he said, adding that Ukraine had nothing comparable in mass production.
The current push for a peace plan is “all bluff,” he said, adding that as long as the Russians have “the ability to press us, they will keep pressing.”
At the same time, Russian forces have taken aim at other critical cities in Donetsk, including Kostiantynivka and Lyman. Credit...
 
Oleh Voitsekhovskyi, a Ukrainian captain whose unit is near Lyman, said Russian forces were attacking “all the time” and “along all directions.”
 
 
Drone strikes, shelling — it never stops, he said. “In the last two months,” he added, “you can feel an increase in the intensity of hostilities.”
Russian forces move in small groups, he said, as Ukrainian drones keep watch overhead. Heavy fog has made it harder for the drones to fend off the Russians.
Russia’s push toward Kostiantynivka, though, has so far failed to yield much in the way of territorial gains, the DeepState map shows. The same can be said for Lyman.
That has put more emphasis and urgency on Pokrovsk.
A thick fog descends there every day, accompanying “the smell of burned coal and the smell of gunpowder that has a hint of manganese, like at a firing range,” said Maksym Bakulin, who is with the 14th Operational Brigade of the National Guard.
 
While the city was “alive” a year ago, he added, Pokrovsk’s once bustling streets now have “civilian bodies and military bodies mixed together, with no possibility to retrieve them.”
Russian forces see Pokrovsk as a steppingstone toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, two heavily fortified cities in Donetsk that Ukraine still controls.
Some analysts have questioned Ukraine’s decision to keep fighting in Pokrovsk and incur heavy losses there. Analysts and some Ukrainian soldiers have said Kyiv may be trying to hold on to avoid feeding Russia’s narrative of inevitable victory as peace talks heat up. Staying in Pokrovsk could also increase Russian forces’ losses.
As Ukraine concentrated so many resources on that battle, analysts say, Russian forces spotted an opportunity elsewhere on the 75-mile-long front line, in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region.
 
Russian forces made a relatively quick march there in recent weeks, seizing about 75 square miles around the city of Huliaipole in November, nearly 40 percent of Moscow’s total territorial gains last month, according to DeepState.
Ukraine has sent some reserves to the area, which has helped slow the advance, “but still the pace there is relatively alarming,” said Mr. Kastehelmi, the analyst.
The onset of winter could reduce the pace of Russia’s advances along the broader front, and also Ukrainian movements. The preponderance of drones is slowing things down even further, forcing a shift away from infantry-heavy attacks. Because of the drones, the front line is less of a line and more of a patch of land, what soldiers call a “kill zone,” up to 15 miles wide in places.
But Russia has a seemingly endless spigot of soldiers and a willingness to absorb heavy losses in a style of warfare that has been likened to a meat grinder.
“Russia has committed itself to a war of attrition, and they are currently trying to militarily break Ukraine, slowly,” Mr. Kastehelmi said.
 
As the 18-month battle for Pokrovsk seemingly enters its final stages, fears have risen for the neighboring city of Myrnohrad.
Russia is storming Ukrainian positions there daily, said Oleh, a sergeant platoon commander in the area who also would give only his first name per military protocol. Drones have turned the roads in and out into death traps.
“Neither by day nor by night do they give us peace,” Oleh said.
He marveled at Russia’s resources, including night vision, resupply aircraft and soldiers.
“If we have three people, they have 30,” he said. “How much manpower they have is just unreal.”
“But,” he added, “they also did not expect that we would fight for so long.”
Maria Varenikova covers Ukraine and its war with Russia.
Edited by Bevo

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