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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/chechen-leader-kadyrov-says-hes-proud-son-beating-up-prisoner-2023-09-25/

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 The leader of Russia's Chechnya region, Ramzan Kadyrov, said on Monday he was proud of his teenage son Adam for beating up a prisoner accused of burning the Koran. Kadyrov posted the comments on Telegram, accompanied by a clip in which a young man in khaki clothing is seen punching and kicking another man cowering in a chair before wrestling him to the floor and slapping him on the head.

The Chechen leader, who styles himself as a ruthless ally of President Vladimir Putin, said he was releasing the video to settle any doubts about whether the incident, first reported last month, had really taken place.

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"He beat him, and he did the right thing," Kadyrov said. "Without exaggeration, yes, I am proud of Adam's action," he said, adding that he respected the boy for acquiring "adult ideals of honour, dignity and defence of his religion."

The prisoner, Nikita Zhuravel, had complained about the attack to Russia's human rights ombudswoman, who said last month she had referred the issue to her counterpart in Chechnya.

I'm sure Russians are thrilled that a Chechen is letting his son beat up a Russian prisoner (after the Russians sent him to Chechnya for punishment).

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If we are wondering why Russia is acting slightly odder than normal, this was from a few days ago

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-24-2023

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The Russian resistance to ceding ground may also be tied to Russian military commanders’ and officials’ attempts to use the counteroffensive to achieve political goals, or it could result from Putin’s micromanagement.  A Kremlin insider source claimed that Putin reportedly gave Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu a deadline of one month until early October 2023 to improve the situation on the frontlines, stop Ukrainian counteroffensives, and have Russian forces regain the initiative to launch an offensive operation against a larger city.

 The insider‘s claim, if true, may indicate that the Russian military command may be ordering relentless counterattacks in hopes of forcing the Ukrainian counteroffensive to culminate, even at a high cost to Russian military capabilities.  ISW has previously observed instances in which the Russian MoD, fearing the imminent loss of Putin’s favor, intensified its efforts to purge commanders who offered honest but negative views and advice and pursued unachievable military objectives at the expense of Russian forces.

Whole article is long/worth a read (it goes into other areas/context), but it'd be interesting if Russian defense officials feel like they have a short time frame to do something.

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2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

If we are wondering why Russia is acting slightly odder than normal, this was from a few days ago

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-24-2023

Whole article is long/worth a read (it goes into other areas/context), but it'd be interesting if Russian defense officials feel like they have a short time frame to do something.

Holy shit it’s even worse than I thought.
 

Where’s the hitler video?! (here’s a trip down memory lane)

 

 

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sometimes the truth comes out in russian telegram. the fact that it has been the russians in the donbass all along. war gonzo "Besides volcanoes, bears and salmon, Kamchatka is the land of the Pacific Marines. The heroic brigades of the Pacific Fleet - the 155th and 40th - have been fighting on the Donbass borders for several years. At the airport I found a scene of a touching farewell of men leaving for the combat zone with their wives, daughters, mothers, sisters and fiancées. I thought, centuries pass, the world changes, yes, yes, it changes, but these scenes look more and more the same. The crocodile tears of the girls and the boys’ faces wet with excited sweat, their mutual salt mixed before the road."

 

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2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

edit: LOL, @BamaATL we posted the same thing.

It bears repeating because it's not good news.  On the one hand, it's not surprising, if anything it's sort of surprising this hasn't been done already.  On the other hand, I have to imagine being on a crew building this must be terrifying, because you are a pretty stagnant target a lot of the time.  

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2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

It bears repeating because it's not good news.  On the one hand, it's not surprising, if anything it's sort of surprising this hasn't been done already.  On the other hand, I have to imagine being on a crew building this must be terrifying, because you are a pretty stagnant target a lot of the time.  

But it also means they don't think they can hold the current areas and are about to lose one or more rail hubs, they've lost naval/air supremacy (even if only partially) and can't supply Crimea by sea, and that they are putting their resources into defending Crimea. And those tracks can be hit/taken out by partisans.

As for why it wasn't done now, it's probably seen as an acknowledgment that they can't hold the areas they currently hold.  If a Russian officer pitched this 6 months ago and said "We need the tracks moved along the sea, because the Ukrainians will take Tokamak and the other areas and put the current rail system under HIMARS fire" they'd be fired/stripped of rank and sent to the front/or go on vacation and fall out of a window.  But now, with the Ukrainian advancement, a Russian officer could say "we build a new rail line farther (further) back and close to the coast or we stop supplying Crimea when the bridge comes down"  and it would be approved.  Especially if the Russian military leadership is under the gun to Get Something Done by early October.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

It bears repeating because it's not good news.  On the one hand, it's not surprising, if anything it's sort of surprising this hasn't been done already.  On the other hand, I have to imagine being on a crew building this must be terrifying, because you are a pretty stagnant target a lot of the time.  

Atomheart beat me to it.  I would add that only having one line of resupply and communication is not a recipe for success.  As Ukraine continues to advance, they will force more and more traffic onto this line, opening up all kinds of strike possibilities.

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4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

But it also means they don't think they can hold the current areas and are about to lose one or more rail hubs, they've lost naval/air supremacy (even if only partially) and can't supply Crimea by sea, and that they are putting their resources into defending Crimea. And those tracks can be hit/taken out by partisans.

As for why it wasn't done now, it's probably seen as an acknowledgment that they can't hold the areas they currently hold.  If a Russian officer pitched this 6 months ago and said "We need the tracks moved along the sea, because the Ukrainians will take Tokamak and the other areas and put the current rail system under HIMARS fire" they'd be fired/stripped of rank and sent to the front/or go on vacation and fall out of a window.  But now, with the Ukrainian advancement, a Russian officer could say "we build a new rail line farther (further) back and close to the coast or we stop supplying Crimea when the bridge comes down"  and it would be approved.  Especially if the Russian military leadership is under the gun to Get Something Done by early October.

 

 

True, but the bad news is that it signals intent to dig lines all the way to the sea and fight it out.  Even if the Ukrainians break thru in the next few weeks, the Russians are preparing for this to continue, for a long time.  

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4 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

True, but the bad news is that it signals intent to dig lines all the way to the sea and fight it out.  Even if the Ukrainians break thru in the next few weeks, the Russians are preparing for this to continue, for a long time.  

That's always been the case, and no one knows that better than Ukraine.  A Ukrainian breakthrough will eventually put this line under fire, too.

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8 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

This could make an interesting episode of Air Diasters if there was any chance of getting a real investigation of the crash.

Especially since they couldn't count out sabotage by Putin's people against Wagner troops.  I'd be curious if any senior leaders were on board.

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3 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

That's always been the case, and no one knows that better than Ukraine.  A Ukrainian breakthrough will eventually put this line under fire, too.

The good news is, while the Russians appear to have a plan, nothing else they planned has worked out, so hopefully they are just wasting resources and industrial capacity to do this.  

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Ukraine is ramping up pressure on the west to do something about the Shaheds which as we know are built on western components. Ukraine gave a report on the drones to western governments back in August but it was leaked to the media and reported on just this week. The electronics in the drones aren't sophisticated enough to be regulated and mainly come from companies based in the US, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Germany, Canada, Japan, and Poland. The parts are smuggled from primarily Turkey, India, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Vietnam and Costa Rica, and then on to Iran or Syria, and then to Russia. Ukraine is pushing for more sanctions and wants western support to hit the factories producing the Shaheds. Russia is ramping up production in the Tatar area east of Moscow and Ukraine would need longer distance missiles to hit the plant. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/27/revealed-europes-role-in-the-making-of-russia-killer-drones interesting in-depth article possibly timed to appear at the same time as Stoltenberg's meeting in Kyiv with DMs of France and England.

image.thumb.png.f471fa25e9bc8e5e795d1fead0ad555a.png
 

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According to the document, Iran has already diversified its production through the use of a Syrian factory delivering to the Russian port of Novorossiysk but the production of drones is shifting to Russia, to the central Tartar region of Alabuga, although Tehran continues to supply the components.

It says the Iranian government is trying to “disassociate itself from providing Russia with weapons” and “cannot cope with Russian demand and the intensity of use in Ukraine”.  Among the suggestions for action by Ukraine’s western allies – at which they would probably baulk – are “missile strikes on the production plants of these UAVs in Iran, Syria, as well as on a potential production site in the Russian federation”.

The document goes on: “The above may be carried out by the Ukrainian defence forces if partners provide the necessary means of destruction.” There is no suggestion of any wrongdoing by the western companies whose parts have been identified. “Iranian UAV production has adapted and mostly uses available commercial components, the supply of which is poorly or not controlled at all,” the paper says.

 

 

Edited by Chopper
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3 hours ago, BamaATL said:

It bears repeating because it's not good news.  On the one hand, it's not surprising, if anything it's sort of surprising this hasn't been done already.  On the other hand, I have to imagine being on a crew building this must be terrifying, because you are a pretty stagnant target a lot of the time.  

I can't imagine there is an easier target than a railroad. The heat signature of a static rail line has to be a benchmark you could use to calibrate thermal imaging equipment. Dial in the bridge coordinates, and send fire a single, high explosive round; repeat as necessary. 

Let 'em build it. It will facilitate Ukraine's reconstruction efforts.

I was looking at Tokmat on Google Earth; It is a logistics hub for vehicular traffic, but the rail line is basically a too and through line w/ a few sidings w/o any discernible logistic/lay down yards adjacent to the tracks. The rail importance appears to be that it is the only line though the area more so than the facilities available. 

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3 hours ago, Scheiss Meister said:

This could make an interesting episode of Air Diasters if there was any chance of getting a real investigation of the crash.

The plane looked like it had a lot of airspeed, and ground speed; usually those big cargo planes look like they're barely moving.

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3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I think embargo is unlikely.  When you sell 10% of the worlds oil, you’ll find buyers.  I doubt it is even possible for a lot of these countries to switch to new suppliers prior to their country falling apart.

And cutting that much energy out of the global supply likely would cause a global recession which likely would backfire politically for most pro-Ukrainian governments. 

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