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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


Eastwood

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@The Dog That's pretty wild, he even released the video below - Prigozhin has been ramping up the rhetoric, and it makes me wonder if this is some kind of ultimatum or some kind of event set for May 9th, and meanwhile the infighting is not seen by Putin because he's in his own little bubble.  And there's a lot of talk that the only reason he is doing this stuff publicly is because the MOD is not returning his calls, in which case his days are number.

There's probably some kind of musical chairs going on, with the loser getting the window, and he's trying to get this out there that it's not his fault.

https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1654254179785768961

Twitter won't allow the embed because it's age-restricted apparently.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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5 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I don’t think Yellowstone is predicted to cause complete loss of life on North America. 

True.  Just millions dead, significant breakdown of society, economic collapse, increased death of the elderly and pulmonary impaired, massive effect on the world’s agriculture and devastating harm to America’s breadbasket, and maybe years of less sunshine.  

Worse, the cancellation of major sporting events in the country after the explosion would result in Aggy claiming numerous national championships….wait!  So I guess, in retrospect, not much would change. 

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So the question is: does the Russian MOD have the ammo and aren't willing to share, or do they not have the ammo at all?  Maybe it's the military rule that you don't reinforce failure, so he is being cut off for failing in Bakhmut.  Any way it goes, I think Wagner is in for some tough sledding.

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1 hour ago, dimyh said:

Soon, very soon this will be playing for you Prigozhin:

Mc Hammer GIF

47 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

So the question is: does the Russian MOD have the ammo and aren't willing to share, or do they not have the ammo at all?  Maybe it's the military rule that you don't reinforce failure, so he is being cut off for failing in Bakhmut.  Any way it goes, I think Wagner is in for some tough sledding.

Like I said, some are claiming nobody at the MOD is talking to him for whatever reason, which makes complete sense - if he had an open line to the MOD, I don't know that he'd be making this video, or the alternative is that he'd be specifically saying that he had talked to Gerasimov and Shoigu and they told him no. This sounds like a guy whose calls aren't being returned, so he gets on social media.

I don't think he gets hammer time - I have a feeling the Wagner boys all have access to this video, and they all have probably been told they have no ammo because Shoigu/Gerasimov said not to give it to them.

Assuming he is telling his mercenaries that they get no ammo because the Russian MOD would rather they die, I'd have to think that Wagner's leadership and more than a few of the rank and file, are not very welcome in Russia right now, especially with how many are convicts these days.

Wish Tom Clancy and a few others were around to write about this stuff, because this sure as hell feels like an outright power struggle that you couldn't have dreamed of outside of an 80s Cold War novel, with Putin not having a fucking clue about any of it (otherwise he'd have shut Wagner down and sent them elsewhere, or given them the ammo).

Feels like Prigozhin has crossed his Rubicon though.  No way to walk that video back.

Where would we have a Surly tailgater for May 9th?  The former Russian House here in Austin? Which took off the "Russian" part last year to honor Ukraine?

And of course, May 9th is a fucking Tuesday.  Always a fucking Tuesday with these things.

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5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Twitter has gone to shit and is being overrun with Russian bots/fanboys, but the NAFO folks are still plugging away.

FcZRrBaXoAIz1pR?format=jpg&name=medium

FvUhaW2WcAEBluI?format=jpg&name=medium

 

We try. And they raise some good funds for the front lines. IFAK's, food, even toys for kids who are at the front. yeah, some scammers, but when found out they are quickly shut them down. 

Canadian friend is doing a painting he will auction and donate 50% to the Georgian Legion and 50% to a group supporting kids along the front for school equipment. Might have to buy him a beer or 10. Ya know, Canadian. 

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1 hour ago, Scheiss Meister said:

So the question is: does the Russian MOD have the ammo and aren't willing to share, or do they not have the ammo at all? 

Oh, and back to this, I don't think they have it. I think if they had the ammo and a decent number of trained/equipped troops that weren't around Bakhmut, they'd be trying to open up some additional offensives outside of Bakhmut to tie up Ukrainian forces.  Instead, this whole Bakhmut situation has greatly favored Ukraine, and allowed Ukraine to have stable lines elsewhere, allowing them to build up and train a lot more troops (who would otherwise be countering additional Russian offensives).  There's a lot of stupid Russians, but plenty of senior Russians know that it's foolish to let the Ukrainians set the tempo, but the Russians are looking pretty helpless right now.

But maybe they have the ammo, but not the trained/equipped troops to make use of it offensively (or they are worried about drones), so they are keeping their powder dry for the main Ukrainian counteroffensives.

Again, Russia can't take the 66th largest city in Ukraine after almost 9 months of trying to.  They've got some major problem(s) for which we aren't seeing the bigger picture, and today's videos gave us a small peek behind the curtain.

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Like I said, some are claiming nobody at the MOD is talking to him for whatever reason, which makes complete sense - if he had an open line to the MOD, I don't know that he'd be making this video, or the alternative is that he'd be specifically saying that he had talked to Gerasimov and Shoigu and they told him no. This sounds like a guy whose calls aren't being returned, so he gets on social media.
I don't think he gets hammer time - I have a feeling the Wagner boys all have access to this video, and they all have probably been told they have no ammo because Shoigu/Gerasimov said not to give it to them.
Assuming he is telling his mercenaries that they get no ammo because the Russian MOD would rather they die, I'd have to think that Wagner's leadership and more than a few of the rank and file, are not very welcome in Russia right now, especially with how many are convicts these days.
Wish Tom Clancy and a few others were around to write about this stuff, because this sure as hell feels like an outright power struggle that you couldn't have dreamed of outside of an 80s Cold War novel, with Putin not having a fucking clue about any of it (otherwise he'd have shut Wagner down and sent them elsewhere, or given them the ammo).
Feels like Prigozhin has crossed his Rubicon though.  No way to walk that video back.
Where would we have a Surly tailgater for May 9th?  The former Russian House here in Austin? Which took off the "Russian" part last year to honor Ukraine?
And of course, May 9th is a fucking Tuesday.  Always a fucking Tuesday with these things.
Interesting timing with Russian Pow interviews posted today pointing out that Wagner had better leadership and support for thier guys. One was considering joining Wagner as it was the lessor of two shit sandwiches by a large margin. Wagner has done a fair job, by Russian standards, of marketing themselves as a better alternative to the regular army- even in death your commanders give a shit and give you proper burials with honor. (Even if it's bullshit, for desperate traumatized Russian men it must be appealing.) Shits getting interesting.
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3 hours ago, Scheiss Meister said:

So the question is: does the Russian MOD have the ammo and aren't willing to share, or do they not have the ammo at all?  Maybe it's the military rule that you don't reinforce failure, so he is being cut off for failing in Bakhmut.  Any way it goes, I think Wagner is in for some tough sledding.

I am starting to wonder if sometime in the last 6 weeks there was supposed to be another huge clandestine shipment of artillery shells out of Iran and it either got destroyed or captured. It would fall in line with the sudden and unexpected stop in supply for the orcs and the new found images of Iranian ammo being used by the UKA.

 

Whats worse to admit on the works stage: we are running low on artillery shells and are unable to produce enough on our own or the fact that to supplement that we made a deal with Iran but somehow (maybe Israel) they got lost somewhere between Tehran and the Crimea…

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22 hours ago, statsman said:

Where I am on the gamers’ leaks:

It is probably true that Ukraine is/was close to running out of AD missiles. 
 
It was bad that this info was revealed to Russia by the leak. 
 
It may be a positive, in that the leak exposed the weakness to citizens of the west, who expect their governments to address such problems. Hopefully the exposure of the leak will ensure that work-arounds (Quicker Patriot set up, more Buk missiles, maybe more MANPADS?) are instituted. CYA. 

I was right!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-allies-patch-together-ukraines-defenses-against-russian-warplanes-missiles-32bb104?st=s7u50u3xkydwjb0&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

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5 hours ago, Superhero said:

The Russian delegate fucked around and found out.

Too bad the Ukrainian only got a few light punches in... too bad.

I didn't see it before until the headline pointed it out, but I just noticed that the Ukrainian guy was holding the flag up for a photo op for somebody when the Russian took it out of his hand, and then you see the Ukrainian guy start to go all

t1000-terminator.gif

Except he was not the T-1000 or something.  Bad analogy, but yeah, the Ukrainian guy had a look on his face that scared the Russian.

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1 minute ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

^ Jenny and the ISW folk have been pretty dang accurate since the initial invasion. They were also caught off guard like others and thought Russia would win quickly. They have adjusted their analysis based on what is actually happening and have been right a lot more than when they have been wrong.

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7 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

He's had ten months to take the city and has failed, but was planning to have it completely taken in the next 5 days if he would have just received ammo? Riiiiggghhhtttt....

If I am Shogiu. I would send a pile of ammo so large that he couldn't deny it.

Then on May 10th publicly ask why he failed at taking the city he promised to take.

 

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4 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

He's had ten months to take the city and has failed, but was planning to have it completely taken in the next 5 days if he would have just received ammo? Riiiiggghhhtttt....

If I am Shogiu. I would send a pile of ammo so large that he couldn't deny it.

Then on May 10th publicly ask why he failed at taking the city he promised to take.

Prigozhin is doubling down in his fight with the MOD, to the point of insulting the Russian Army multiple times in that last video (something you can't do in Russia proper) and the leadership and blaming everything on them.  I don't know what the reach of these videos is (probably not to the typical Russian), but yeah, he should be careful what he drinks and not to enter any tall buildings.  I'll be surprised if he's still alive 3 months from now.

And this is where Putin's background as a spook is failing him - he either fails to grasp what is happening, or is mentally downplaying it as squabbles amongst lower-ranking mafia types.  Hell, given his KGB background, he's probably suspicious of every report that crosses his desk, and rather than question the content of the report, questions the motives of the person giving it to him.

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10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Prigozhin is doubling down in his fight with the MOD, to the point of insulting the Russian Army multiple times in that last video (something you can't do in Russia proper) and the leadership and blaming everything on them.  I don't know what the reach of these videos is (probably not to the typical Russian), but yeah, he should be careful what he drinks and not to enter any tall buildings.  I'll be surprised if he's still alive 3 months from now.

I'd throw Girkin in too as someone who has been critical enough you'd think would earn a free flight out of a tall window somewhere. I don't really understand the calculus, but by playing the MOD against PMC's, it might be to focus the Russian populace on those guys (as potential scapegoats later) and also to keep them rabid to continue the war.

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16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Prigozhin is doubling down in his fight with the MOD, to the point of insulting the Russian Army multiple times in that last video (something you can't do in Russia proper) and the leadership and blaming everything on them.  I don't know what the reach of these videos is (probably not to the typical Russian), but yeah, he should be careful what he drinks and not to enter any tall buildings.  I'll be surprised if he's still alive 3 months from now.

He did just open a shiny new 'Wagner Tech Center' in St Petersburg at the turn of the year.  Seems he won't be enjoying much of it for a while:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/04/russias-wagner-group-opens-defence-tech-centre-in-st-petersburg

16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And this is where Putin's background as a spook is failing him - he either fails to grasp what is happening, or is mentally downplaying it as squabbles amongst lower-ranking mafia types.  Hell, given his KGB background, he's probably suspicious of every report that crosses his desk, and rather than question the content of the report, questions the motives of the person giving it to him.

It seems Putin simply might not receive any of these reports-- his inner circle is that tight, and none wish to deliver bad news, but they may also be blissfully ignorant themselves, with such an isolated bubble of influence that those with more relevent intel actually avoid and maintain seperation from Putin's circle.  He does watch state television often, and I assume those producers are aware of it.

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24 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:

He did just open a shiny new 'Wagner Tech Center' in St Petersburg at the turn of the year.  Seems he won't be enjoying much of it for a while:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/04/russias-wagner-group-opens-defence-tech-centre-in-st-petersburg

It seems Putin simply might not receive any of these reports-- his inner circle is that tight, and none wish to deliver bad news, but they may also be blissfully ignorant themselves, with such an isolated bubble of influence that those with more relevent intel actually avoid and maintain seperation from Putin's circle.  He does watch state television often, and I assume those producers are aware of it.

When "shoot the messenger" is the rule, very few negative messages get through.

Still, Putin isn't a total idiot.  He has to have a calendar and note it has been more than three days since the war started.  Uncomfortable questions have to have been asked at some point.  Yet far fewer people - and surprisingly peripheral ones at that - have fallen out of windows than I would have imagined.  

Edited by Chad Fuck
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The Russian authorities of the occupied part of the Zaporozhye region announced the evacuation of 18 settlements, including Tokmak. On the left is a map of these points, on the right are my thoughts on the course of a possible offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

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