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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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28 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Well, it doesn't have any real battlefield uses in Ukraine other than terrorizing population centers. That's the concern. 

I hear you, but I’m simply addressing it as some line in the sand or super weapon. I think using any artillery piece indiscriminately against a densely populated area wrong. Which I’m sure we all do. I just don’t get the comparison to nukes. It’s not even close. 

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6 minutes ago, dimyh said:

Really what kind of bullshit story can Putin craft that he could sell to his peeps to make a war palpable? Saving Russians in the Donbas might have been it but going for a full regime change by sacking full cities was just going to be ugly, even with the filtered state propaganda. Even that would take some time to pitch and build up. It's pretty obvious now that Putin seriously miscalculated so many things and really boils down to his hubris. So many sloppy steps in the buildup and execution so far.

The more units he brings in from other parts of Russia, as well as reservists he calls up, and the longer this drags on, the more the Russian public will realize what's going on (many probably do, they can probably get around the government blocking social media just as the Chinese are able to do).

But they won't be able to ignore the high-profile things like the Formula 1 stuff, the soccer stuff, etc. being canceled.

And I'd imagine they will panic if they realize what's happening with their banking systems and their economy once word of the sanctions gets out.  I don't know how the Russian stock market works, but I'd assume the analysts/traders have a keen sense of how things are going, and it would be hard to hide the stock market bouncing around.

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4 minutes ago, dimyh said:

Really what kind of bullshit story can Putin craft that he could sell to his peeps to make a war palpable? Saving Russians in the Donbas might have been it but going for a full regime change by sacking full cities was just going to be ugly, even with the filtered state propaganda. Even that would take some time to pitch and build up. It's pretty obvious now that Putin seriously miscalculated so many things and really boils down to his hubris. So many sloppy steps in the buildup and execution so far.

thats why he needed the false flag operation.  the world communicates real time now so when everyone knows it was bullshit FF, the old playbook doesn't work.

He's running I formation and everyone else is running spread.  It may still work but it's gonna be 3 yards and a cloud of dust(hopefully).  we are still very early but Desert Storm and Shock and Awe have kind of changed how people think "war" works.

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2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

And I'd imagine they will panic if they realize what's happening with their banking systems and their economy once word of the sanctions gets out.  I don't know how the Russian stock market works, but I'd assume the analysts/traders have a keen sense of how things are going, and it would be hard to hide the stock market bouncing around.

Monday may be a bloodbath in the markets if these sanctions (and in particular SWIFT) really have teeth.  Particularly in Russia but really everywhere.  

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26 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

They are very indiscriminate.  If used on an urban area with civilians, that's pretty much a war crime.

Sure, similar destruction can be accomplished with more conventional artillery, but those are pretty hideous.

All of ours are guided bombs, like the bunker buster, deployed only on military targets.

Correct, but the MLRS stuff Russia has been using already is the same bad news for civilians. I guess this is kinda too war nerdy to waste this much energy on, but I think Russia PR for their gear is showing to be just that, PR. Even that huge thermobaric bomb they have is just a tiny dick response to the MOAB. 

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5 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

thats crazy if Kharkiv hasn't fallen.  its right on the border.  maybe they are leaving some units behind to shell it to keep terrorizing the populace while moving on to Kiev?

2 million people in the metro area.  There's no way the Russians have the manpower to go street-to-street and clear the place, not with so many troops around Kyiv.

If the Russian generals have truly gotten orders that Kyiv must fall by Monday, I'd imagine they are gathering troops, airpower, artillery, reserves, etc., and are going to try an actual combined arms/coordinated all-out assault.  And since they don't have the manpower to take and hold every little street or block, they will probably bomb/shell the shit out of Kyiv to a level we have not seen.

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4 minutes ago, Hook'Em0608 said:

I hear you, but I’m simply addressing it as some line in the sand or super weapon. I think using any artillery piece indiscriminately against a densely populated area wrong. Which I’m sure we all do. I just don’t get the comparison to nukes. It’s not even close. 

yes as related to a thermonuclear weapon.

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4 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

thats why he needed the false flag operation.  the world communicates real time now so when everyone knows it was bullshit FF, the old playbook doesn't work.

He's running I formation and everyone else is running spread.  It may still work but it's gonna be 3 yards and a cloud of dust(hopefully).  we are still very early but Desert Storm and Shock and Awe have kind of changed how people think "war" works.

Plus you have Rubio and others tweeting out the plays before he makes them.

Rubio putting out that call about Russian generals better think about what they are being asked to do got a helluva lot of notice.

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27 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

They function in the same manner as our "MOAB" FAE bomb.  We used them on the cave openings in Tora Bora, and used something similar to clear landing zones late in Viet Nam.  They function differently, but they are basically another weapon.  The horrible aspect of these is the ability to put a lot of them on target quickly.  How long does it take to reload?  How many reloads per unit do they have?  Also, they look like grapes to me.  It looks like rifle, machine gun, and mortar fire can all render the launch boxes inoperable.

That’s why they are overrated IMO.  They take so long to break down and move, once they fire, a single American Excalibur round is going to finish its killing days in a war with us. If Ukraine is using counter fires radar they can end Russia stupid fear weapons effectiveness easily. As soon as that first rocket fires they should have coordinates and let er rip back at them. 

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7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The more units he brings in from other parts of Russia, as well as reservists he calls up, and the longer this drags on, the more the Russian public will realize what's going on (many probably do, they can probably get around the government blocking social media just as the Chinese are able to do).

But they won't be able to ignore the high-profile things like the Formula 1 stuff, the soccer stuff, etc. being canceled.

And I'd imagine they will panic if they realize what's happening with their banking systems and their economy once word of the sanctions gets out.  I don't know how the Russian stock market works, but I'd assume the analysts/traders have a keen sense of how things are going, and it would be hard to hide the stock market bouncing around.

https://fortune.com/2022/02/24/russia-stockmarket-crash/

 

The people have to know what's going on you would think. 33% drop on Thursday, ouch.

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18 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I can't remember if it was this thread or Twitter that recommended the Netflix Doc "Winter on Fire" about 2014 Ukrain Maidan Square Protests.  I semi-followed that at the time  but certainly not that in depth. It foreshadows everything about the resolve of the Ukranian people we're seeing now.  A great "prequel" to this.  Highly recommended.  Makes me root for them even harder.

That thread "What's happening in Ukraine?" back in 2014 was legendary on TOS. Prior to then, I'd never given much thought to Ukraine, but you're certainly correct. The thread with all it's video clips, along with that documentary, really shows that Ukrainians have a metal mettle and is largely why I'm not surprised in the least with how they're holding up.

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4 minutes ago, Hook'Em0608 said:

Correct, but the MLRS stuff Russia has been using already is the same bad news for civilians. I guess this is kinda too war nerdy to waste this much energy on, but I think Russia PR for their gear is showing to be just that, PR. Even that huge thermobaric bomb they have is just a tiny dick response to the MOAB. 

Yeah, all rockets are pretty indiscriminate and nasty, but their warheads are usually relatively small compared to cannon and missiles.

These seem to have an outsized effect and would seem to be particularly grotesque in an urban environment.

But talking about how they kill people probably reflects ignorance as to how conventional artillery kills people.

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5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The more units he brings in from other parts of Russia, as well as reservists he calls up, and the longer this drags on, the more the Russian public will realize what's going on (many probably do, they can probably get around the government blocking social media just as the Chinese are able to do).

But they won't be able to ignore the high-profile things like the Formula 1 stuff, the soccer stuff, etc. being canceled.

And I'd imagine they will panic if they realize what's happening with their banking systems and their economy once word of the sanctions gets out.  I don't know how the Russian stock market works, but I'd assume the analysts/traders have a keen sense of how things are going, and it would be hard to hide the stock market bouncing around.

I'm thrilled by the resistance to date and the ineptitude shown by the Ruskies has really exceeded my expectations of the general discontent by his citizens. I was under the assumption that a long drawn out occupation would sap their enthusiasm and their economy as long as we had concerted economic sanction plan in place. But I was thinking along a more half decade if not more timeframe when this could very easily be a very quick days/weeks/months desire for a coupe.

 

4 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

thats why he needed the false flag operation.  the world communicates real time now so when everyone knows it was bullshit FF, the old playbook doesn't work.

He's running I formation and everyone else is running spread.  It may still work but it's gonna be 3 yards and a cloud of dust(hopefully).  we are still very early but Desert Storm and Shock and Awe have kind of changed how people think "war" works.

Agreed and that's why it was critical to not be drawn offsides and make it absolutely clear that Putin was the initiator. That was critical to solidify the support from the EU states. And really made it obvious to many other nation states Putin's ambitions.

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4 minutes ago, Hook'Em0608 said:

Correct, but the MLRS stuff Russia has been using already is the same bad news for civilians. I guess this is kinda too war nerdy to waste this much energy on, but I think Russia PR for their gear is showing to be just that, PR. Even that huge thermobaric bomb they have is just a tiny dick response to the MOAB. 

I get what you're saying - a kid is dead whether by 7.62mm or a 120mm howitzer or a 1,000lb bomb, or a thermobaric missile.

But vaporizing kids/women/old folks/etc. takes things to 11.

I won't post the photo, but we've all seen the photo of the little girl in Vietnam who had her clothes burned off by a napalm strike from South Vietnamese fighters.  That was one of those iconic images of the Vietnam War that really angered a lot of people.

There's no serious targets for them to use those thermobarics against in Kyiv - the Ukrainian fighters in Kyiv are very mobile, moving in and out of tunnels, subways, etc., and any such use in Kyiv is going to result in a lot of innocent civilian deaths. 

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7 minutes ago, Longhornlove said:

https://fortune.com/2022/02/24/russia-stockmarket-crash/

The people have to know what's going on you would think. 33% drop on Thursday, ouch.

If Putin completely wrecked the value of their currency and/or their bank accounts were seriously affected (of course they would be, but how much depends on those banks dealings with non-Russian banks) and it fucked up a lot of companies, I wonder if that would get people in the streets.

Could that be why there are rumors he wants Kyiv taking by Monday?  Worried about unrest back home?

Take Kyiv, tell his people he has Kyiv, try to get Ukraine to the table to negotiate, and bullshit his people into thinking that he can make the sanctions go away, just give him some time?

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8 minutes ago, Longhornlove said:

The people have to know what's going on you would think. 33% drop on Thursday, ouch.

Sending Med students to battlefied hospitals.

Ukraine asking Int'l Red Cross to help send dead Russians home.

Captured conscripts calling their parents to tell them their story.

Mass protests and arrests all across Russia.

I think the people know.

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9 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

Relatively quiet night? Or just no news? It's 8 am in Kyiv 

Regrettably, I'm betting on this being the calm before the storm.  I'm guessing tomorrow night will be really ugly.  Whatever anyone may believe in spiritually, please give that energy to the Ukrainians.  

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8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If Putin completely wrecked the value of their currency and/or their bank accounts were seriously affected (of course they would be, but how much depends on those banks dealings with non-Russian banks) and it fucked up a lot of companies, I wonder if that would get people in the streets.

Could that be why there are rumors he wants Kyiv taking by Monday?  Worried about unrest back home?

Take Kyiv, tell his people he has Kyiv, try to get Ukraine to the table to negotiate, and bullshit his people into thinking that he can make the sanctions go away, just give him some time?

Not sure if it would get people in the street but there is no way he could keep this out of the public's hands short of shutting down phone lines and censoring the internet.

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9 minutes ago, PTINS said:

Sending Med students to battlefied hospitals.

Ukraine asking Int'l Red Cross to help send dead Russians home.

Captured conscripts calling their parents to tell them their story.

Mass protests and arrests all across Russia.

I think the people know.

A bit much for just a "military operation" huh?

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2 minutes ago, PTINS said:

Sending Med students to battlefied hospitals.

Ukraine asking Int'l Red Cross to help send dead Russians home.

Captured conscripts calling their parents to tell them their story.

Mass protests and arrests all across Russia.

I think the people know.

One of the analysts living in Moscow that CNN had on earlier today was discussing Russian public awareness of what's happening pointed out a couple of interesting thoughts. One point she made was the generational divide about how older Russians are heavily reliant on getting their news from TV which is mostly state-sponsored and towing the line as opposed to younger folks getting their news from diverse internet sources and knowing work-arounds to get Western viewpoints from a more free press. The other was that a similar dynamic is evident between urban dwellers of St. Petersburg and Moscow versus the rural residents. So, yes, younger people in the metros tend to be better informed; hence the protests we've seen so far and word-of-mouth is going to start spreading.

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So what happens on Monday:

1) Putin reaches main goals: seizes Kyiv, kills or captures Zelensky. What does he do?

2) Kyiv falls but Zelensky is still free and resistance continues. What does Putin do?

3) Kyiv holds and turns into a bigger embarrassment. What next?

 

Holding out for the next 48 hours could really be big to deflate the rest of the Putin's reputation. I'm just trying to think of the end goal/exit strategy for him at this point.

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42 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

thats crazy if Kharkiv hasn't fallen.  its right on the border.  maybe they are leaving some units behind to shell it to keep terrorizing the populace while moving on to Kiev?

Nah, it's to give them a land bridge into Crimea. They plan to keep it if they win. They've already raised a Russian flag over the city just in the past few minutes supposedly.

Edited by MillerEP
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3 minutes ago, bolverk said:

One of the analysts living in Moscow that CNN had on earlier today was discussing Russian public awareness of what's happening pointed out a couple of interesting thoughts. One point she made was the generational divide about how older Russians are heavily reliant on getting their news from TV which is mostly state-sponsored and towing the line as opposed to younger folks getting their news from diverse internet sources and knowing work-arounds to get Western viewpoints from a more free press. The other was that a similar dynamic is evident between urban dwellers of St. Petersburg and Moscow versus the rural residents. So, yes, younger people in the metros tend to be better informed; hence the protests we've seen so far and word-of-mouth is going to start spreading.

Plus anyone under 40 in Russia or Ukraine have no real recollection of living in the Soviet Union. I'm guessing they couldn't give less of a shit about Putin's boomer desires

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6 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Nah, it's to give them a land bridge into Crimea. They plan to keep it if they win. They've already raised a Russian flag over the city just in the past few minutes supposedly.

oh, I was just going by the tweet saying it hadn't fallen.  and agreed on the land bridge.  I think Putin only wants Kiev to Odessa and Eastern Ukraine.

Could we see an east/west germany type situation?

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2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

oh, I was just going by the tweet saying it hadn't fallen.  

All I'm seeing is a convoy went in through the city and appear to be getting shot up.  Speculation is either some kind of probing tactic or more likely a mistake.  Definitely not seeing anything to the effect that it has fallen.

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5 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

Plus anyone under 40 in Russia or Ukraine have no real recollection of living in the Soviet Union. I'm guessing they couldn't give less of a shit about Putin's boomer desires

Putin: We're gonna take Ukraine back!!

20-30 year old Russians: isn't that the place that has all the radiation?

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6 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

oh, I was just going by the tweet saying it hadn't fallen.  and agreed on the land bridge.  I think Putin only wants Kiev to Odessa and Eastern Ukraine.

Could we see an east/west germany type situation?

It hasn't fully fallen, there are still civilians and reservists there, but Russian vehicles and troops have penetrated into the city: 

My bet is he wants everything East of the Dnieper River, He plans to erect a puppet government to ratify that decision so it'll revert to Russian territory. 

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Just now, MillerEP said:

It hasn't fully fallen, there are still civilians and reservists there, but Russian vehicles and troops have penetrated into the city: 

My bet is he wants everything East of the Dnieper River, He plans to erect a puppet government to ratify that decision so it'll revert to Russian territory. 

I strongly agree that this is his end game in this.   I hope he gets a big shit burger of no.

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2 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

It hasn't fully fallen, there are still civilians and reservists there, but Russian vehicles and troops have penetrated into the city: 

My bet is he wants everything East of the Dnieper River, He plans to erect a puppet government to ratify that decision so it'll revert to Russian territory. 

Oh you are talking about kherson.  I was talking about Karkhiv.  

yep. he'll want the west side of the river for some portion to control waterway and any black sea fronting land. western ukraine is just more land to patrol with no upside. it doesn't provide him anything 

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2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

Oh you are talking about kherson.  I was talking about Karkhiv.  

yep. he'll want the west side of the river for some portion to control waterway and any black sea fronting land. western ukraine is just more land to patrol with no upside. it doesn't provide him anything 

Whoops, you're right. Same thing happening in both locations:

 

 

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24 minutes ago, dimyh said:

So what happens on Monday:

1) Putin reaches main goals: seizes Kyiv, kills or captures Zelensky. What does he do?

2) Kyiv falls but Zelensky is still free and resistance continues. What does Putin do?

3) Kyiv holds and turns into a bigger embarrassment. What next?

 

Holding out for the next 48 hours could really be big to deflate the rest of the Putin's reputation. I'm just trying to think of the end goal/exit strategy for him at this point.

Putin will level Kyiv.  That’s the end game.  I feel like the relative calm is just assembling everything for that   

Putin will not admit to making mistakes nor will he leave Kyiv intact.  

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11 minutes ago, Hmbre97 said:
13 minutes ago, bolverk said:
Bengals? As in Cincy? Sorry for my ignorance but I'm not following. Is one of those guys in the NFL?

It's a joke because the guy in the front middle looks like Joe Burrow.

Other than him looking nothing like Joe Burrow, it was a pretty good joke.

image.png.5b74dea885a1db1d553588c9a9238efb.png

Bengals' Joe Burrow claps back at Ravens coach after 20-point rout | Fox  News

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  • immamac changed the title to Русский корабль - иди нахуй

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