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2019 Houston Astros Thread


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1 minute ago, UTexasFight said:

Remind me the conclusion on draft picks if we sign Keuchel before the draft?

we won't lose anything.  we just wouldn't gain the picks we would normally gain if someone else signed him.

i have no idea when that runs out but it's may fucking first.

we could've dealt with losing dk and having lmj injured, but the morton situation may have been the straw.  losing 3 while only signing miley is becoming an issue.

maybe the schedule will lighten up again and we can go back to a 4-man?

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Yeah, I think Luhnow outsmarted himself with Charlie.  They could have made it to July just fine with Verlander, Cole and Morton as the backbone of the rotation.  I wouldn't have been willing to take the chance he did with 3/5 of the rotation being a question mark.  A McHugh, Pressly and Osuna trio for the end of games would be really fucking good.

Edited by kevwun
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we won't lose anything.  we just wouldn't gain the picks we would normally gain if someone else signed him.
i have no idea when that runs out but it's may fucking first.
we could've dealt with losing dk and having lmj injured, but the morton situation may have been the straw.  losing 3 while only signing miley is becoming an issue.
maybe the schedule will lighten up again and we can go back to a 4-man?

It runs out upon the following season’s draft. Aka June 4, 2019.
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Stark yesterday:

3. We won’t see Kimbrel or Keuchel until June

Remember Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel? They last threw a pitch in October. It’s now more difficult than ever to believe they’ll throw another one until after the amateur draft, which is still nearly five weeks away.

Thank the Basic Agreement, which says their old teams will receive draft-pick compensation only if they sign a major-league contract “on or before the day prior” to the June draft, which begins this year on June 3. So if Kimbrel and Keuchel have stayed unemployed this long, what’s the downside in waiting another month so that the team signing them won’t have to give up a pick? That may not be their first choice, as Ken Rosenthal wrote this week. But it may be the only way left to revitalize their market.

“Let’s just say I wouldn’t be shocked if Kimbrel waits until after the draft,” said an exec of one team interested in him.

“I predict that neither the Astros nor the Red Sox will get a draft pick for those guys,” said an exec of a team that has stayed in touch on Keuchel. “I don’t know where they’re going to go. I don’t know what they’re going to get. But the one thing I feel strongest about is that neither team will get a pick.”
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I wonder if Luhnow would pull the trigger on DK in the next week or so.
If not, it’s hard to imagine anything happening until first week of June like that Stark blurb says.
I could see incentive on both the Astros and DK to get something done in the very immediate future

Astros need SP help ASAP (and pushing Peacock/McHugh back to bullpen as HG points out). DK, I’m sure, is ready to get paid.

Past this week though, if I’m DK, I’d just sit and wait until beginning of June when more suitors will jump back in the mix when the draft pick penalty expires.

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Which says they've bought into their analytics bullshit too much instead of their eyeballs, or the owner has become a penny pincher. The window for a second title is closing.

Not sure if serious. assuming you are...

it’s May 2, we’re only 20% of the way through the season, and worst case, the Miley/McHugh/peacock experiment fails and you trade for a starter or two which was the (very close) alternative/backup all along.

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42 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

They were counting on one of the many young arms to step up 

Yeah, I have to think that Whitley, James, Martin, Cionel and Bukauskas factored into the decision to not really do anything to address the rotation in the offseason. 

Unfortunately, James has been a disaster. Whitley has a cool 7.78 ERA in AAA, while Buk has a 20-16 K-BB ratio in AA. Martin has done pretty well in AAA but his BBs are a bit high. 

In short, none of the young guys seem ready. It is a small number of innings, but still.

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10 hours ago, kevwun said:

Yeah, I think Luhnow outsmarted himself with Charlie.  They could have made it to July just fine with Verlander, Cole and Morton as the backbone of the rotation.  I wouldn't have been willing to take the chance he did with 3/5 of the rotation being a question mark.  A McHugh, Pressly and Osuna trio for the end of games would be really fucking good.

This.  He gambled on McHugh and Peacock to carry us with starting pitching, and James to backfill the gap in the bullpen.  Looks like he rolled snake eyes on that move.

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If only we coulda had both.

GM’ing is fun.
Yep, we sure could have...but then you wouldn’t get JV for 2020 and 2021 and possibly not Bregman for 2023 and 2024.

Avoiding paying big dollars for a solid 3rd and/or 4th FA SP while you wait and see if your young guys can contribute this year (and you get a solid 3rd and 4th SP back next year in LMJ) was and is still the right move. If the young guys show no signs of providing anything of value to you in 2019, Crane has proven —and I fully expect him to— pay whatever he needs (whether it be in prospects or $$$) to put this team in a position to win it all this year.
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This.  He gambled on McHugh and Peacock to carry us with starting pitching, and James to backfill the gap in the bullpen.  Looks like he rolled snake eyes on that move.

It’s been a month, people, for crying out loud.

Some of you guys would want to cut Trout because he’s only hitting .273 over the past two weeks

 

Oh, by the way, turns out the Twins have a pretty good offense this year

 

 

Back to back losses going in to an off day is the worst

 

 

 

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The problem is that 60% of the rotation to which we've become accustomed over the last couple of seasons is gone (Keuchel, Morton) or out (McCullers). Every replacement has been a downgrade (from 2018). 

McHugh figures to get better. His peripheral numbers are mostly in line with his career norms - except there is a spike in HR allowed, which is almost double his career average (for example, HR/FB is 18%, career avg is 11%). This will probably come down. He isn't dominant, but he's capable. 

Miley has been fine - this is who he is; again, he's not going to be dominant. 

Peacock has had one season (2017) in which he has been a good starter. So far in 2019, he has been about as good as he's been throughout his career. 

So - we have downgraded 60% of the rotation. It shouldn't be surprising if the pitching overall is worse this year, though it shouldn't be terrible (and so far, it actually hasn't been). 

 

Edited by Hank Chinaski
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46 minutes ago, DallasGatr said:

Smells of showcasing for a trade. Got to think he (and Reed, Kemp, White) are all gone for the preverbal bag of balls if offered.

Yeah, Fisher is almost 26. He has value because he has power and speed...I imagine the club could get something meaningful for him - similar to the package for JD Davis, I'd guess, cash in an older prospect (for whom there doesn't seem to be room) for younger ones. Fisher has performed well at AAA.  

 

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