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Nice Guy Eddie

Texas 2020 general election

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5 hours ago, Mdhorn said:

or follow the transition of Virginia. 

I think this is more likely.

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I have so much respect for Beto and what it is doing. He could easily be sitting at home or making a shitload at a corporate gig. Buts he’s been out campaigning for other people, even if they have little shot at winning. He’s done more to turn Texas blue than anybody since the republicans took over. 

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A slight majority of all Texas voters — 52% — said they would not vote to reelect President Donald Trump in November. Republicans remain solidly in his corner: 90% said they would vote to reelect Trump, including 80% who said they “definitely” would do so. Democrats feel just as strongly: 93% said they would not vote for the president’s reelection, including 88% who would “definitely not” vote for him. Independent voters were against reelection, but less so: 38% said they would vote to reelect Trump, while 62% said they would vote against him.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/02/14/bernie-sanders-leading-texas-ahead-super-tuesday-uttt-poll-says/

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I mean, we all know those 10% who are not "definitely" going to vote for him will.  But maybe a few can be peeled off.

 

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Trump isn't going to lose Texas.  Ted fucking Cruz is still in the Senate and most Republicans can't stand him.

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5 hours ago, Jack said:

Trump isn't going to lose Texas.  Ted fucking Cruz is still in the Senate and most Republicans can't stand him.

There could be 2.5 million people voting who did not vote in 2018 and at least 2 million that did not vote in 2016. They mostly come from the 10 biggest counties. It is possible to close Cruz' 215,000 vote winning margin. 

But only with Bernie running as the poll shows.

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28 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

The article interviewed Karl Rove and since he returned to Texas to stem the blue tide, I'm going to say no matter how many people vote blue, the results will only show GOP victories. The man has zero conscience with respect to the ends justifying the means. Zero. Nada. Zip. Zilch.

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1 hour ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

The article interviewed Karl Rove and since he returned to Texas to stem the blue tide, I'm going to say no matter how many people vote blue, the results will only show GOP victories. The man has zero conscience with respect to the ends justifying the means. Zero. Nada. Zip. Zilch.

He can help overcome voter apathy (see his efforts to get Christians out to vote for Bush in 2000), but he’s facing major demographics changes (olds dying off, folks moving into the state, young folks voting for first time) and he’s facing a helluva lot of anger, and not nearly as much apathy among the left as the GOP needs.  

Rove is most likely there not to stem the blue tide, but to protect certain Republicans.  

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This is the most relevant section from that article, and it reflects the anger and activism that is hard to counter:

“The 22 counties along I-35 are a big reason Democrats had one of their best election cycles in 2018.

In 2014, U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, a Republican, won those 22 counties by more than 350,000 votes. But in 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton won the corridor by more than 115,000 votes en route to posting the best statewide showing for a presidential candidate in Texas in more than 20 years.

In 2018, Democrats made further gains in the corridor. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz lost those counties by 440,000 votes. That nearly 800,000-vote swing along the “blue spine“ helped make the race closer than any U.S. Senate race in more than 20 years in Texas.

The corridor’s clout was felt beyond the Cruz-O’Rourke contest. Five Republican candidates for Congress in those 22 counties, almost all of them heavy favorites, won with less than 51 percent of the vote.

In the Texas House, Democrats flipped 12 seats previously held by Republicans, 10 of which are in districts along I-35.

In the Texas Senate, Democrats flipped two seats, both along I-35. And they nearly took a third seat north of Dallas, where Republican Angela Paxton won with 51 percent of the vote.

Overall, Texas has been adding voters faster than it has been adding people.

Since 2017, the state’s population has grown about 5 percent while the number of registered voters has risen 8 percent. The increase is dramatic in urban areas such as Harris County. The county’s population has grown 4 percent since 2014, while voter registration has jumped 14 percent.”

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If Harris county Democrats Registered and voted like Travis county Democrats the state would flip.

Bruce Elfant in a recent article said that if 40,000 to 50,000 more register before November then 96% of eligible Travis county voters will be registered. Given Texas has 16 million registered  voters now having 16.5 by November might be possible. I think 10.5 million or more Texans turning out in the general is a real possibility.

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4 hours ago, RayDog said:

If Harris county Democrats Registered and voted like Travis county Democrats the state would flip.

Bruce Elfant in a recent article said that if 40,000 to 50,000 more register before November then 96% of eligible Travis county voters will be registered. Given Texas has 16 million registered  voters now having 16.5 by November might be possible. I think 10.5 million or more Texans turning out in the general is a real possibility.

Trump won by 800,000 or so votes.  If we get almost 2 million more voters by November, what’s the resales tic breakdown by party?  Assuming Bernie doesn’t get the nomination.   

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I think it is better to go from the 2018 Cruz- O'Rourke difference of less than 215,000 votes with 8.3 million voters. Although in 2016 3.6% voted Libertarian or McMullin, so Republican never Trumpers will throw away ~300,000 votes in 2020 too.

I also think that turnout could vary widely depending on who is the Democratic candidate. for Bloomberg and Biden it would be closer to 10 million, while for Bernie greater than 10.5 million. That could easily be the difference. The key to winning in Texas is not turning swing voters, it is getting traditional non-voters to vote.

~85% of the 2 to 2.5 million voters who did not vote in 2018 will come from the 10 largest counties, which lean democratic. I think the margin in the 10 largest counties will easily be over 215,000 votes greater than in 2018, before factoring in the Libertarian vote. Republicans with have to work hard at suppressing the democratic vote while registering more Republicans.

I think that Trump beats Bloomberg or Biden in Texas, but loses to Bernie's turnout.

Edited by RayDog

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as hard as it is to believe that Texas could surpass 10m voting this year in the POTUS election, it seems within the realm of possibility.  9m voted in 2016 and it's estimated that Texas has added 2.5m in voting age population (VAP)  since then. And given that recent history is that VAP turnout for POTUS races are between 44-47%, that would easily add another 1.1 to 1.2m voters.

Ran some simplistic scenarios where the Largest 15 counties took 80% of the growth and the remaining counties took 20%. Then applied approximate Dem/GOP voting percentages, I only see Dems picking up a net 100K over the GOP. 

Now perhaps my assumptions on growth and voting trends are wrong, but there's a reason you don't see states fundamentally flip often. Even if Harris County has 200K new voters, that might only add/subtract a net 35K to/from a POTUS candidate.

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13 hours ago, RayDog said:

 

I think that Trump beats Bloomberg or Biden in Texas, but loses to Bernie's turnout.

LOL.  That's cute.

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4 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

as hard as it is to believe that Texas could surpass 10m voting this year in the POTUS election, it seems within the realm of possibility.  9m voted in 2016 and it's estimated that Texas has added 2.5m in voting age population (VAP)  since then. And given that recent history is that VAP turnout for POTUS races are between 44-47%, that would easily add another 1.1 to 1.2m voters.

Ran some simplistic scenarios where the Largest 15 counties took 80% of the growth and the remaining counties took 20%. Then applied approximate Dem/GOP voting percentages, I only see Dems picking up a net 100K over the GOP. 

Now perhaps my assumptions on growth and voting trends are wrong, but there's a reason you don't see states fundamentally flip often. Even if Harris County has 200K new voters, that might only add/subtract a net 35K to/from a POTUS candidate.

In 2012 the Democrats won the 10 largest counties in the Presidential race by 57,605. In 2016 it was 622,623 and in 2018 939,235. The Democratic to Republican percentages progressed from 50/49(2012) to 54/41 (2016) to 59/40 in 2018. Given those trends I do think Democrats win the 10 largest counties by more than 1.2 million votes in the 10 million turnout scenario and 1.35 or so with the 10.5 million Bernie turnout.

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I’ve said it before on this thread, but I think the political future of Texas depends on how fast the olds die in rural areas. The GOP wins the panhandle, west Texas ( except El Paso), and East Texas with ease. That’s where they get most of their vote margin from. 
 

those counties aren’t growing. Bexar, Travis, Harris, and Dallas county along with El Paso are permanently blue. They should only get bluer. It all depends on how quick the olds in rural areas die off because those people can’t and won’t be replaced.

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To the extent there is any growth in rural counties it is usually the Latino population. Rural white population is almost in universal decline in Texas.

The rural vote is +900,000 or so for Republicans but it is fairly fixed as the voter turnout is already high there. They might get another 100,000 votes there.

However the counties in the 11 to 30 population are slowly trending more Democratic and Democrats should gain a net 100,000 or so there.

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45 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

I’m voting this week 

Saturday morning, bright and early for me.  Going to feel so good.  Then one more vote in November and I can either rest easy or start my exodus.

ETA: rest easy for a SHORT time and then continue the good fight going forward.

Edited by Biff Tannen

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Harris County triggering Repubs :

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Harris-County-unveils-multilingual-virtual-15057921.php

 

Quote

Harris County residents who primarily speak Spanish, Chinese, Vietnamese or 26 other languages now will have access to a virtual translator at the polls, County Clerk Diane Trautman announced Friday, part of a series of initiatives aimed at improving the county’s voter participation rate.

 

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16 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

It always pisses me off but, republicans really do believe that the lower the voting rate % the better and the lower overall people with health insurance % the better. Obamacare repeal was going to kick 25 million off insurance and they didn’t give a rats ass. They genuinely don’t want people to have insurance and be healthy.

 

they are awful people.

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10 years ago - solid republican voter

8 years ago - luke warm republican voter

4 years ago - luke warm Democrat voter

Now - Democrat donor and solid voter who will be an insufferable prick to republicans when this state goes blue.
 

Fuck those vote suppressing mother fuckers and the bullshit they pull to try to retain power at the expense of the least advantaged in society. Unlike republicans, Dems won’t have to play those games because when this state goes blue, it’s never going back. 

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I’ve said it before on this thread, but I think the political future of Texas depends on how fast the olds die in rural areas. The GOP wins the panhandle, west Texas ( except El Paso), and East Texas with ease. That’s where they get most of their vote margin from. 
 
those counties aren’t growing. Bexar, Travis, Harris, and Dallas county along with El Paso are permanently blue. They should only get bluer. It all depends on how quick the olds in rural areas die off because those people can’t and won’t be replaced.


That rate is pretty easy to determine. Any acceleration though will be from GOTV and voter reg. The state already slants heavily to under 30 and those that would vote blue are the groups that are historically underrepresented like Hispanic/Latino, young, black, etc. the group I work with is doing what we can to register 100,000 new voters who would undoubtedly vote blue (young queer and young people of color). It’s doable, but it’s not about waiting for the olds to move on. That’ll happen eventually.

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6 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

I’ve said it before on this thread, but I think the political future of Texas depends on how fast the olds die in rural areas. The GOP wins the panhandle, west Texas ( except El Paso), and East Texas with ease. That’s where they get most of their vote margin from. 

nuking obamacare and medicare cuts will speed this up. smaller rural hospitals will be slaughtered 

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Texas report on population changes: https://demographics.texas.gov/Resources/publications/2019/20191205_PopEstimatesBrief.pdf

some of the charts take a few seconds to understand the story but I hadn’t previously realized that Texas was aging as fast as it was.  The 65+ group had the most growth of the standard age ranges with 1m between ‘10 and ‘18.  Presumably it’s mainly Texas boomers aging and not huge migrations of older people. This does give the Texas GOP some hope since older usually means more conservative and many become more politically aware and active in retirement. 

the death spiral of many small counties are interesting but the voter impact must be relatively low because the numbers themselves are low. A block of apt complexes in large cities have more people. On a side note, I wonder how some of these counties will continue to provide any local service unless they have a petroleum tax base or help from the state.

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8 hours ago, 4th_and_18 said:

Watson announcing retirement tomorrow? Assume he will finish out the term unless it’s health related.

He's contemplating stepping down after the 2020 elections/2021 session, but before his 2022 re-election cycle would have to start-up.  This would make an appointment kind of a moot point.  But he'd like to line up a way or Rep. Eddie Rodriguez to either run for his seat in 2022 as an incumbent (less likely), or anoint him as the preferred successor of Sen. Watson's in 2022.  The maps could change by 2022, but it's likely Eddie would still fall in that district or could move two years in advance somewhere else on the east side where he is beloved.  

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1 hour ago, Lobo said:

He's contemplating stepping down after the 2020 elections/2021 session, but before his 2022 re-election cycle would have to start-up. 

So, mostly wrong?

 

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I was in part so yeah.    Source said he would wait but I guess there’s s a sweet signing bonus.  So yeah, this far left in his term—-on to special election.  I’m not wrong when I say Eddie has been eyeing this for years.  Curious though how the rushed timeline will effect all involved.  
 

anyway, need to get Eddie that seat.  Who’s with me?!?

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I think Gina is going to fight him for it.

 

Honestly, I’m not sure it’s not a demotion for Eddie. He’s got seniority, good committee assignments, and the House is way closer to flipping than the Senate.

 

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He would take a spot at the end of line on most committee assignments and yes, he's excited to see the House flip. 

But he's been talking about it for at least 2-3 cycles.  But yeah, he's not gonna run for it.  Whatever y'all say.

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This is Adler's dream job and I'll be shocked if he doesn't run. He is not having fun running council meetings. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova

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Yeah, Captain Gentrification who lives to see how high he can drive up the cost of living for East Austin folks should totally run.  He can't break off yet and effectively run his grift yet and most of Eddie's constituents fucking hate him and rightfully so.  

I don't know why some of you are so fucking infatuated with Adler who does nothing but fuck over people of color.  Fuck Adler.  Go Eddie! 

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1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Wait, who is infatuated with Adler? 

172,000 Austinites apparently.

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Adler couldn't take a stand on TNC's, he should be dead to all of you.

Furthermore, early voting starts today and the only reason I haven't voted already is I haven't the foggiest idea who to vote for in the presidential race.  I have one goal for the next president, and that is that they aren't Trump.  I'm struggling to get a good read on which of the Dems is actually the most electable in the purple/light red states, regardless of ideology.   Have we coalesced around a favorite yet in that regard?

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He would take a spot at the end of line on most committee assignments and yes, he's excited to see the House flip. 
But he's been talking about it for at least 2-3 cycles.  But yeah, he's not gonna run for it.  Whatever y'all say.


Who the fuck are you arguing with? I didn’t say or even imply that he wouldn’t run. I said it’d arguably be a demotion.

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Yes, that's one way to look at it.  Wasn't arguing, in your sense of the word.  After all this time, to have my confused with someone who in real life gives a flying fuck about anything...wow...I bet you're a "people person" at work.  

Anyway, Eddie's doing the special election so let's all jump in and help, as in "real life" help.  Mmmkay?  Sorry to upset you, wasn't really arguing.  Who cares on the board man, seriously?  But if in real life with real effort and real dollars, you want to assist materially, let's exchange messages.  Thanks.  

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44 minutes ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

Adler couldn't take a stand on TNC's, he should be dead to all of you.

Furthermore, early voting starts today and the only reason I haven't voted already is I haven't the foggiest idea who to vote for in the presidential race.  I have one goal for the next president, and that is that they aren't Trump.  I'm struggling to get a good read on which of the Dems is actually the most electable in the purple/light red states, regardless of ideology.   Have we coalesced around a favorite yet in that regard?

Nope--I'm holding off early voting for precisely that same reason.

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mpu


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