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2020 astros offseason

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1 hour ago, cabowabo said:

For $35,000,000 a year, we should trust Greinke in the 7th inning when he’s thrown 70 or so pitches and given up 2 hits. 

That's not why we lost.

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19 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

 Sucks for Will Harris but how often have we seen relievers be fucking amazing for a while only to turn into abject dogshit under Hinch?  At some point in time it's like blaming every single one of your exes as a psycho and thinking they all have the problem when in reality it is you who have the problem.

This is what all relievers do and it has nothing to do with AJ.  For every reliever that was consistently great over a multi-year period, there are dozens and dozens of guys who were amazing for for a season or so and then went right back to sucking.  Always remember that every reliever is a failed starter.  They all ended up in the bullpen for a reason.

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19 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

 Sucks for Will Harris but how often have we seen relievers be fucking amazing for a while only to turn into abject dogshit under Hinch?  At some point in time it's like blaming every single one of your exes as a psycho and thinking they all have the problem when in reality it is you who have the problem.

This is what all relievers do and it has nothing to do with AJ.  For every reliever that was consistently great over a multi-year period, there are dozens and dozens of guys who were amazing for for a season or so and then went right back to sucking.  Always remember that every reliever is a failed starter.  They all ended up in the bullpen for a reason.

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19 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

 Sucks for Will Harris but how often have we seen relievers be fucking amazing for a while only to turn into abject dogshit under Hinch?  At some point in time it's like blaming every single one of your exes as a psycho and thinking they all have the problem when in reality it is you who have the problem.

This is what all relievers do and it has nothing to do with AJ.  For every reliever that was consistently great over a multi-year period, there are dozens and dozens of guys who were amazing for for a season or so and then went right back to sucking.  Always remember that every reliever is a failed starter.  They all ended up in the bullpen for a reason.

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51 minutes ago, Viper said:

True, Greinke was cruising most of the game. Either way I don't think he was going to hold them to 1 run the rest of the game so it's somewhat moot with the offense not scoring any runs.

This.  Getting beat 3-2, 14-2, 8-2 are all the same thing, really.

But other than some head-scratcher managerial decisions in game, I’m not sure how you do anything about not hitting.  The lineup was stacked top to bottom. It wasn’t like the weaker links like Marisnick and Reddick were the ones hitting into DPs and flying out to shallow right with two men on. 

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Didn't even pick up on this last night. Cole is diving into free agency head first. I think you can rule out him accepting a hometown discount. He's going to the highest bidder:

 

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Offer Cole the QO to get the draft pick compensation. Offer him a 4x$40 deal, if he says no, move on to upgrading your team specifically the bullpen.

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Is there a Strom-equivalent the Stros should look for a hitting coach? Feels like that's an area for the team to improve upon. Low strikeouts is good, now let's take the next step.

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3 hours ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

So this is how the dodgers felt as the favorite losing to the under dog that no one gave a chance too. Fuck.

definitely need a SP but I’m not sure how aggressive we will be over the winter. I’d love to load up during this window we have and not just think it’s open forever. 

Gonna have to trade for or get a free agent SP and hope a couple pan out from the farm.

JV (Old)
Greinke (Old)
Urquidy (Think he showed he can hold down a rotation spot)
James (If he learns control, could be great)
Whitley (Looking like the slow developing Tucker of pitchers so far, but 2020 will be his shit or get off the pot year)
McCullers (If he is still alive)
Valdez (Maybe)
Perez (Maybe)
Ivey (Maybe)

I think we can make another good run with JV, but we need to use him less often in the early season.  He looked pretty burned in game 6.  If he isn't trying to win the Cy Young, maybe he has more gas left in the tank for the playoffs.

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1 minute ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

Definitely the bullpen and wait till the trade deadline to go after another Cole, grienke, JV starter for the playoff push.

Do we have the farm system to take a wait-to-the-deadline approach to our SP needs? The Greinke trade decimated our top 10. Other than Whitley and Tucker, who can we offer for a TOR guy? 

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24 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Didn't even pick up on this last night. Cole is diving into free agency head first. I think you can rule out him accepting a hometown discount. He's going to the highest bidder:

 

We all knew this was going to happen, and I have no problem with him leaving.  I'd go to the highest bidder too.  But, putting on that hat at that time is bullshit.  He can go play for the Angels, make a shit ton of money, and enjoy losing with Trout for many years to come.

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Ok well then who is realistically available this winter that would be a Lunhow type SP that we will pay? Crane doesn’t want to go over the tax so eventually we will either pay over to keep this team around or let them go and think every guy coming up is the next big thing. 

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I'm in the shop Correa and Reddick category. I'd love to get a great young catcher that will be around for several years. I didn't see enough of Stubbs to know if he's the answer, but he's listed as our #1 catching prospect.  That's always been our weakest position imo.

We're not signing Cole so I've already moved on from him. I would absolutely spend the money on Rendon.  I think trading the 2 will free enough money.  Bregs moves to short and Tucker to RF.  If we do nothing else, i think that makes the team better.

I'm not as worried about our pitching staff as others might be. We have some great young arms that proved that they belong, and we get LMJ back.  I trust Strom to work his magic on everyone. 

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10 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Do we have the farm system to take a wait-to-the-deadline approach to our SP needs? The Greinke trade decimated our top 10. Other than Whitley and Tucker, who can we offer for a TOR guy? 

Why do the Astros need a TOR, when the analyticals in the org. say remove him in the 7th at 60-70 pitches. If that is truly where the org. is heading, then you use that capital in building a much better bullpen.

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7 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

I would love to see us be aggressive and go after a rendon and others but that doesn’t seem to be how we will manage our off seasons.

It would be uncharacteristic for us to go after an expensive FA bat.

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10 minutes ago, cabowabo said:

We all knew this was going to happen, and I have no problem with him leaving.  I'd go to the highest bidder too.  But, putting on that hat at that time is bullshit.  He can go play for the Angels, make a shit ton of money, and enjoy losing with Trout for many years to come.

Man that is unsportsmanlike as fuck.  He played his ass off this year for us, but I wouldn't even bother making an offer for him now if I was in the Astros front office.

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1 hour ago, HoustonFrog said:

So how does this rank as biggest chokes in MLB WS history? I know we were biggest favorite in a long time and the last big favorite swept and took care of business

I'm not buying this shit at all. Betting lines are whatever, but anyone who thought this was some kind of mismatch didn't know what the fuck he was talking about. 

WAS had the best record in baseball over the last 4 months of the season. They had the best rotation in baseball. They had an MVP candidate playing 3B. They have maybe the best young hitter in the game. This was a team that was regularly picked to win it all with basically a lesser core over the last few seasons...and all that changed was that they replaced Harper with a better hitting OF and they added the best pitcher on the market last offseason. 

Maybe the Astros had a marginally better roster, but that hardly matters in a 7-game series. The Vegas lines didn't reflect the actual talent on these two rosters. 

 

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Overall the Astros shouldn't overreact to what happened in the postseason.  They had nothing but bad games but that wasn't the team they were all year.  They (whatever the opposite of peaked is) at the wrong time.  Just as the Nats peaked at the right time.   We shouldn't have beat Tampa Bay, we shouldn't have beat the Yankees, and the Nats finally exposed our bad postseason. Our raw talent got us to Game 7 of the WS. Not exactly shabby.  Basically like how Alabama finds themselves in the title game most years even when they're not near their best.

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4 minutes ago, kevwun said:

They beat Cole and Verlander 3 times.  That shit isn't luck.

This. 

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I'm a bit worried about JV in the future.  I guess stats don't lie, but watching him this year I couldn't help but think he really doesn't have ace stuff.  Seems like he makes a ton of mistakes every game and only occasionally gets punished. 

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14 minutes ago, kevwun said:

They beat Cole and Verlander 3 times.  That shit isn't luck.

Yeah.  Their rotation is exceptional and their bats got red hot at the right time. 

And JV was obviously tiring throughout all of October.  His fastball velocity was down 2-4 mph and he was missing spots more often than usual. 

One of the keys to next season will be managing his workload better so he has more left at the end.  223 IP this year at his age was just too much.  So pull him an inning early in every start next year.  And if it costs us a couple of regular season games, who cares?

Edited by TexArcher

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I'm betting Boras told Cole that hat would be a positive sign to the marketplace.  "I'm listening - all bidders welcome.  Call my agent."

He's getting some kind of above $300 mil contract.  If the Astros aren't in for that, just get the compensation for him and hope he goes somewhere other than NYY or LAD.  Maybe you tell him the Kyle Farnsworth story, or the Kevin Brown story, or the Carl Pavano story, or the Giancarlo Stanton story, or the Jaret Wright story, or the Hideki Irabu story to keep him out of New York.  And tell him the Dodgers are at the end of their run (which I'm hoping is true). He can go cash in to play for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Brought to You by Disney or whatever they're called this year.  Or the Cubs would be even better.  BOS I think is out - they're committed to rebuilding according to their front office.

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Just now, TexArcher said:

Yeah.  They're rotation is exceptional and their bats got red hot at the right time. 

And JV was obviously tiring throughout all of October.  His fastball velocity was down 2-4 mph and he was missing spots more often than usual. 

One of the keys to next season will be managing his workload better so he has more left at the end.  223 IP this year at his age was just too much.  So pull him an inning early in every start next year.  And if it costs us a couple of regular season games, who cares?

Yeah, exactly this.  No need to win 100+ games if it means he's running on fumes.  Just get into the playoffs with everyone healthy and rested.

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As for 2020...

(1) Reddick has to go. There isn't room on the roster for both he and Tucker. Tucker has spent 2 full seasons at AAA already - it is detrimental to his development to send him there again. Reddick is basically a replacement player at this point. They won't be able to trade him without eating most of the money he's owed. But I'd DFA him before I'd have him on the roster next year. 

(2) Cole isn't re-signing. The rotation without Cole isn't particularly great. Verlander had a great year but he'll be 37. He was hardly great in the postseason, which may not mean anything, or it may mean that he needs fewer starts between April and September. Greinke should be good, but he's not dominant. LMJ is hopefully back to being himself, but it is difficult to bank on his durability. And then...who else? Urquidy showed some promise, but is unproven. James isn't a starter...he just doesn't have the control. Whitley has been a fucking disaster his last 2 seasons in the minors, and he's really the only prospect who figures to be "close." I don't see bringing back Miley or McHugh - they're just warm bodies anyway. 

So yeah, they're pretty much in a position where they have to add a FA and hope to turn him into Morton, and hope that McCullers is all the way back, and hope that Urquidy becomes a good starter, and hope that Whitley suddenly matures and capably fills a rotation spot. Oh, and hope that the two guys nearing 40 don't slow down at all. 

And this is what stings the most - it seems as though the rotation will be less than championship-caliber going forward. 

(3) The position-player side should remain mostly the same. They need a catcher. Maybe they bring Chirinos back, I don't know. They're not likely going to sign Grandal. Yuli, Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Springer, Brantley, Alvarez are all back, so lineup is basically the same. Reddick needs to go to make room for Tucker. 

(4) I hate to say it, but it is difficult to imagine the team being as good next year. The starting pitching figures to be worse. The bullpen isn't in great shape right now. The offense should still be very good. They'll win a lot of games. Maybe more than Oakland. But unless a hell of a lot goes right with the pitching, this core has probably already peaked. Of course, they don't have to be as good as this year to win it all...if they can just avoid an historically low AVG with runners on base next time they're in the playoffs, they could win some series. 

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37 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

I'm in the shop Correa and Reddick category. I'd love to get a great young catcher that will be around for several years. I didn't see enough of Stubbs to know if he's the answer, but he's listed as our #1 catching prospect.  That's always been our weakest position imo.

We're not signing Cole so I've already moved on from him. I would absolutely spend the money on Rendon.  I think trading the 2 will free enough money.  Bregs moves to short and Tucker to RF.  If we do nothing else, i think that makes the team better.

I'm not as worried about our pitching staff as others might be. We have some great young arms that proved that they belong, and we get LMJ back.  I trust Strom to work his magic on everyone. 

Astros drafted catcher Korey Lee in the first round this year, so the team probably sees him as the future at the position.  Obviously not a 2020 solution, but who knows.   He's 21 and I've been told 4 or 500 times in the last week that at least one very good player turned 21 during the World Series.

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30 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I'm not buying this shit at all. Betting lines are whatever, but anyone who thought this was some kind of mismatch didn't know what the fuck he was talking about. 

WAS had the best record in baseball over the last 4 months of the season. They had the best rotation in baseball. They had an MVP candidate playing 3B. They have maybe the best young hitter in the game. This was a team that was regularly picked to win it all with basically a lesser core over the last few seasons...and all that changed was that they replaced Harper with a better hitting OF and they added the best pitcher on the market last offseason. 

Maybe the Astros had a marginally better roster, but that hardly matters in a 7-game series. The Vegas lines didn't reflect the actual talent on these two rosters. 

 

Mattress Mac had $13 million on the Astros through various bets.  That kind of money could have single handedly shifted the lines further toward the Astros than they should have been.

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If I were Crane there is no way I'd go into lux tax territory now.  They put all the chips in on winning it this year, and the gamble almost but didn't pay off.  Win last night and we may have been able to get some discounts in resigning and/or attracting players hungry for a ring.  Instead we slip back to the prior perception where the usual suspects may be more attractive for that:  Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, etc.

Ultimately they need to do whatever it takes to keep Altuve the rest of his career.  He's the face, heart, and soul of the Astros.  He probably wants the core kept around him:  Springer, Correa, Bregman, Yuli (not sure how many miles are left on YG's tires, but a hell of season this year.)  The clubhouse culture seems a solid part of the team's success.  But Correa is our Land Rover:  flashy and impressive when it works, but high maintenance and out of service sitting in the shop too much.  I'd pull the trigger if you can get good value in a blockbuster trade of him.

But what do I know, I'm a baseball idiot.  Still have faith in Luhnow, it's going to be fascinating to see the moves he makes.  I bet there's plenty of changes before Opening Day.

Edited by clapclapclap

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I think Verlander's issue was mostly being worn down.  Maybe next year they skip his turn in the rotation every 4 or 5 starts or stop letting him go 7 or 8 in every start.  They need to keep his innings down either way.  I think 2019 was definitely the best team they will field for quite a while.  They aren't going to have a starting rotation like that again for a long time.

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5 minutes ago, kevwun said:

I think Verlander's issue was mostly being worn down.  Maybe next year they skip his turn in the rotation every 4 or 5 starts or stop letting him go 7 or 8 in every start.  They need to keep his innings down either way.  I think 2019 was definitely the best team they will field for quite a while.  They aren't going to have a starting rotation like that again for a long time.

Didn't have a rotation like that in 2017 either.  The team doesn't play as well as favorites.  The 2 seed is the sweet spot for this team, I think.  You could almost see the "supposed to win" pressure on players' faces this year.

Edited by FondrenRoad

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1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

I just had a disturbing thought.

What if Strasburg opts out and goes back to SoCal with Gerrit Cole.

 

 

I don't think the Angels can afford both.

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I know the Angeles are the front-runner for Cole, but don't count out the Padres. They have the #1 rated farm system right now. I could see them spending some cash on free agents and making a run in the next year or two. 

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55 minutes ago, cabowabo said:

We all knew this was going to happen, and I have no problem with him leaving.  I'd go to the highest bidder too.  But, putting on that hat at that time is bullshit.  He can go play for the Angels, make a shit ton of money, and enjoy losing with Trout for many years to come.

Kind of a dick move to your teammates and the city. No way he's wearing that if we win. Wear it Sunday when free agency begins, and say I'm listening to all offers. Whatever, onward.

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15 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

(4) I hate to say it, but it is difficult to imagine the team being as good next year. The starting pitching figures to be worse. The bullpen isn't in great shape right now. The offense should still be very good. They'll win a lot of games. Maybe more than Oakland. But unless a hell of a lot goes right with the pitching, this core has probably already peaked.

I wouldn't go that far.  Maybe the starting pitching goes from an A+ to a B+.  But the lineup should actually get better, assuming Yordan is the real deal and Tucker is an upgrade over Reddick.  And the bullpen will absolutely get upgraded.

And I don't think we're near the end of this peak any time soon.  Springer is 30, Altuve is 29, and Uncle Mike is 32.  Primes last longer than they used to.  And Bregs, Correa, Yordan, and Tucker are pups.  Yuli is really the only aging guy at 35.

And obviously JV and Greinke are aging and we worry about a steep and fast decline, a la Roy Halladay (RIP).  But we've got a lot of highly regarded pitching prospects and we've signed 3 front line starters in 3 years.  As long as the checkbook is open and Strom is around, we'll have plenty of pitching.

I think we'll be in contention for several more years.  

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14 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

If I were Crane there is no way I'd go into lux tax territory now.  They put all the chips in on winning it this year, and the gamble almost but didn't pay off.  Win last night and we may have been able to get some discounts in resigning and/or attracting players hungry for a ring.  Instead we slip back to the prior perception where the usual suspects may be more attractive for that:  Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, etc.

Ultimately they need to do whatever it takes to keep Altuve the rest of his career.  He's the face, heart, and soul of the Astros.  He probably wants the core kept around him:  Springer, Correa, Bregman, Yuli (not sure how many miles are left on YG's tires, but a hell of season this year.)  The clubhouse culture seems a solid part of the team's success.  But Correa is our Land Rover:  flashy and impressive when it works, but high maintenance and out of service sitting in the shop too much.  I'd pull the trigger if you can get good value in a blockbuster trade of him.

But what do I know, I'm a baseball idiot.  Still have faith in Luhnow, it's going to be fascinating to see the moves he makes.  I bet there's plenty of changes before Opening Day.

You have a bit of a loss hangover like us all, but it will pass.  The Astros are still going to be one of the top franchises, if not the top franchise, attracting players looking for a shot at a ring.  1 of the competitor teams you mentioned hasn't been able to get past the ALCS.  Another lost 2 WS in a row, and then a DS.  If they are still in the mix for FAs, then so are the Astros.  Yes, we shit the bed one time, but the Yankees and Dodgers have been rolling around in their shitted bed.  The Red Sox fucked around and didn't even make the playoffs after a 100 win season and a WS title.  Cubs are the Cubs.

And it seems as if every team is afraid of the luxury tax now, so the Dodgers and Yankees aren't the outspenders they used to be either.  There are quite a few teams, including the Astros, who are willing to go right to the tax threshold but not past it.

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1 hour ago, GreenspointTexas said:

 Verlander has MAYBE one good year left

MLB is a business.

How ballsy would it be to sign Cole to the top contract and then trade Verlander?

At this point, Verlander's failures in the WS are noticeable.

Cole is 7 years younger, and equally effective in regular season with a good postseason track record.

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4 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

And it seems as if every team is afraid of the luxury tax now, so the Dodgers and Yankees aren't the outspenders they used to be either.  There are quite a few teams, including the Astros, who are willing to go right to the tax threshold but not past it.

Yeah, all teams value players in pretty much the same way now...when you cross the luxury tax threshold, you are essentially then paying any player you sign significantly more money than the contract is worth.I think all teams, even if they can afford it, see it as bad business. 

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3 minutes ago, pacman said:

MLB is a business.

How ballsy would it be to sign Cole to the top contract and then trade Verlander?

At this point, Verlander's failures in the WS are noticeable.

Cole is 7 years younger, and equally effective in regular season with a good postseason track record.

Cole put on a Boras hat immediately following the World Series.  I don't think he is going to entertain an Astros offer.

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2 minutes ago, pacman said:

MLB is a business.

How ballsy would it be to sign Cole to the top contract and then trade Verlander?

At this point, Verlander's failures in the WS are noticeable.

Cole is 7 years younger, and equally effective in regular season with a good postseason track record.

I always like thinking out of the box. I just don't know who would trade for him, especially for what they'd have to pay him.  He doesn't have a lot of years left so nobody's going to give up anything that's worth it. Other than saving money, it doesn't help us. 

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Just now, FondrenRoad said:

Cole put on a Boras hat immediately following the World Series.  I don't think he is going to entertain an Astros offer.

Oh, he'd sign with HOU if they offered him the most money; they just aren't going to. 

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2 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

I always like thinking out of the box. I just don't know who would trade for him, especially for what they'd have to pay him.  He doesn't have a lot of years left so nobody's going to give up anything that's worth it. Other than saving money, it doesn't help us. 

I think JV is good for the clubhouse.  Right behind Altuve in that regard.  He has been willing to help new arms that join the pitching staff too.  Strom isn't getting any younger either.  Ride JV's contract out.  Limit his appearances.  Maybe even test him in relief if he is willing.  Then groom him for the coaching staff to assist Strom and take over after Strom is done.

Yes, he has sucked in the World Series, but we don't get to either of these World Series without him.

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5 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

I think JV is good for the clubhouse.  Right behind Altuve in that regard.  He has been willing to help new arms that join the pitching staff too.  Strom isn't getting any younger either.  Ride JV's contract out.  Limit his appearances.  Maybe even test him in relief if he is willing.  Then groom him for the coaching staff to assist Strom and take over after Strom is done.

Yes, he has sucked in the World Series, but we don't get to either of these World Series without him.

  Yup. All of this.

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27 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

I wouldn't go that far.  Maybe the starting pitching goes from an A+ to a B+.  But the lineup should actually get better, assuming Yordan is the real deal and Tucker is an upgrade over Reddick.  And the bullpen will absolutely get upgraded.

And I don't think we're near the end of this peak any time soon.  Springer is 30, Altuve is 29, and Uncle Mike is 32.  Primes last longer than they used to.  And Bregs, Correa, Yordan, and Tucker are pups.  Yuli is really the only aging guy at 35.

And obviously JV and Greinke are aging and we worry about a steep and fast decline, a la Roy Halladay (RIP).  But we've got a lot of highly regarded pitching prospects and we've signed 3 front line starters in 3 years.  As long as the checkbook is open and Strom is around, we'll have plenty of pitching.

I think we'll be in contention for several more years.  

Oh, I think they'll remain in contention...but the rotation depends almost entirely on older guys' ability to remain healthy and effective as they approach 40. 

Not sure how excited I am about the organizational pitching prospects...Whitley has been a train wreck. Bukauskas and Martin are gone. Most of the guys in the minors who figure to be closest had pretty bad years in 2019. But you're right, we don't know how this will play out yet. 

The offense will remain strong, not worried about that. It could be better with a full season of Alvarez and Tucker, and maybe Correa will miss less time. Although it was historically good this year, so topping that is a stretch. 

I'm not saying the window is closed; just that the rotation figures to fall a bit, and doesn't appear to have an immediate solution. 

Edited by Hank Chinaski

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