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horn4life

Trump Easter Sunday total infections poll

Predict Trump's Coronavirus infection count on Easter Sunday  

41 members have voted

  1. 1. Number of infected

    • 1,000,000+
    • 900,000 - 999,999
    • 700,000 - 799,999
    • 600,000 - 699,999
    • 500,000 - 599,999
    • 400,000 - 499,999
    • 350,000 - 399,999
    • 300,000 - 349,999
    • 250,000 - 299,999
    • 200,000 - 249,999
    • 150,000 - 199,999
      0
    • 100,000 - 149,999
    • <100,000 . (I work in the Trump Administration)
      0


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Now let's be very, very clear here.  Since we do not have widespread testing you need to use the number of positives from ACTUAL testing.  Which will be MUCH smaller than the actual number.  If you want to for "fun" you can also simply post your predicted number of dead we can celebrate with Trump as he opens up for an Easter Sunday mass infection party.

Edited by horn4life

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Maybe I missed it, but from what I thought I heard, it sounded like he was spouting and going rogue from his script with a pandering and aspirational and best-case scenario roadmap in a vague way, not saying that the churches will be opened no matter what the landscape looks like, right? I mean, isn't that what all sales people do? Lie about the roadmap and give best case scenarios that are wrong by like 2X to customers to make them feel better?

Edited by Rougarou

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There are about 55,000 cases right now. Easter is 2 1/2 weeks away. If what Mike Pence says is true and we're shipping out millions of tests then let's assume we'll have enough tests to get an accurate count. At a rate of doubling every three days, let's be conservative and say the number of cases will double twice a week. So that would mean the number of cases would double five times between now and Easter. That would amount to 1.76 million cases. I think 1,000,000+ is a really safe bet. 

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We may be lucky just to have a million tests by easter. I'd bet our infections are over a million, but our confirmed cases will lag significantly

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10 minutes ago, Captainant said:

We may be lucky just to have a million tests by easter. I'd bet our infections are over a million, but our confirmed cases will lag significantly

Are you calling Mike Pence a liar?

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Just now, WhatTheBuck said:

Are you calling Mike Pence a liar?

Well I for one am thankful for the 4 million tests we had a week and a half ago

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10 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

There are about 55,000 cases right now.

That we know of...we've only tested ~300 people per million.  

For comparison, the average EU country's testing rate is between 6 & 9 times that...depending if you include Iceland.

That's really sad that the wealthiest country in the history of the world can't test it's people more efficiently.

 

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Imagine watching Donald Trump ramble on about Easter and, in the depths of your soul, be moved to tears by the power of his words and leadership. Because there are tens of millions of Americans for whom this is their mental reality.

fucking WILD

Putting myself in that mindspace is like taking acid.

Edited by bad_teammate

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1 hour ago, Rougarou said:

Maybe I missed it, but from what I thought I heard, it sounded like he was spouting and going rogue from his script with a pandering and aspirational and best-case scenario roadmap in a vague way, not saying that the churches will be opened no matter what the landscape looks like, right? I mean, isn't that what all sales people do? Lie about the roadmap and give best case scenarios that are wrong by like 2X to customers to make them feel better?

No. That's what con men do. A sales professional wouldn't have a job for long if he tried that shit.

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51 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

You eat the infected? Jeffrey is smiling up at you.

Dahmer or Epstein? There's a difference.

I went with the 600K because in some areas the testing is still based on travel and exposure to a positive case despite there being community spread positive cases. If you asked me how many I think there will be in reality regardless of testing, I would guess close to 900K to a million at least by that time if not more based on all the domestic travel that has continued.

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2 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

Imagine watching Donald Trump ramble on about Easter and, in the depths of your soul, be moved to tears by the power of his words and leadership. Because there are tens of millions of Americans for whom this is their mental reality.

fucking WILD

Putting myself in that mindspace is like taking acid.

This is so accurate and funny

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2 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

There are about 55,000 cases right now. Easter is 2 1/2 weeks away. If what Mike Pence says is true and we're shipping out millions of tests then let's assume we'll have enough tests to get an accurate count. At a rate of doubling every three days, let's be conservative and say the number of cases will double twice a week. So that would mean the number of cases would double five times between now and Easter. That would amount to 1.76 million cases. I think 1,000,000+ is a really safe bet. 

 

I think I see a flaw in your reasoning.

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26 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

I think I see a flaw in your reasoning.

Well, if Mike Pence wasn't a lying piece of shit then we'd already have millions of tests available. I'm betting that, despite the lies and the gaslighting and denial about the slow federal response, we'll manage to test enough people by Easter to cross the 1,000,000 threshold. If we don't then it will be an indictment of our response to the need for testing. 

As long as the only people in Ohio who can get tested are health care workers and patients already in the hospital suffering symptoms, I'll bet our percentage of tests that come back positive are going to be pretty high. 

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I"m going to get pedantic here, but there are too many poll choices. Furthermore, they assume a linear increase in positive cases, when cases are currently exponentially increasing, as they will for the foreseeable future. The options should be organized in a logarithmic manner, like

< 100k (log < 5)

100k - 300k (log = 5 - 5.5)

300k - 1M (log = 5.5 - 6)

etc

I guessed 500-600k, only because we will be test-limited.

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4 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

There are about 55,000 cases right now. Easter is 2 1/2 weeks away. If what Mike Pence says is true and we're shipping out millions of tests then let's assume we'll have enough tests to get an accurate count. At a rate of doubling every three days, let's be conservative and say the number of cases will double twice a week. So that would mean the number of cases would double five times between now and Easter. That would amount to 1.76 million cases. I think 1,000,000+ is a really safe bet. 

Yup. Went with this, given the numbers now and doubling.  I assume the numbers won't truly double every three days as we probably started flattening the curve with all the lockdowns., the effects of which we won't see for a couple weeks anyway.  But, the true numbers now have to be more than 55,000 given that we're really just starting to test.

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Testing limitations notwithstanding, I am bumping this to add this mornings numbers:

86,012 Confirmed Cases

1301 Deaths

(From the JHU Coronavirus Map site)

 

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"It's just such a special day, almost the most special day. It's not quite the day I beat Hillary, but it's close! Jesus, great guy, he was strongly amazing, but I don't think he could've beat Hillary and the media like I did."

 

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On 3/25/2020 at 8:43 AM, Nivek said:

Prey it away.

Hide yo kids...

On 3/25/2020 at 8:53 AM, workswithseed said:

You eat the infected? Jeffrey is smiling up at you.

No, he just knows what many a good catholic priest enjoys...

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53 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Testing limitations notwithstanding, I am bumping this to add this mornings numbers:

86,012 Confirmed Cases

1301 Deaths

(From the JHU Coronavirus Map site)

 

400k and I hope I’m very wrong but 2250. 

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Well, DOTARD could always reopen the Easter Egg Roll to his MAGAtes. Wouldn't be fair to the kids though.  

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Forgot to vote in my own poll!  I went over a million as I think the Trump Administration may have tested (with results) 5 million people by that time.   I know it's stupid to make a prediction based on a moderate to reasonable level of performance by the Trump administration.  But since they said we have 2 million tests ready to go three weeks ago this Monday...

But reality is we are bragging on 100K in tests a day, but I am praying that we can ramp up testing. Testing is the ONLY way we are ever going to get the economy back.

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We were at 55,000 cases on Wednesday and crossed 100,000 cases on Friday so we're ahead of schedule for a three day doubling period. 

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23 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Forgot to vote in my own poll!  I went over a million as I think the Trump Administration may have tested (with results) 5 million people by that time.   I know it's stupid to make a prediction based on a moderate to reasonable level of performance by the Trump administration.  But since they said we have 2 million tests ready to go three weeks ago this Monday...

But reality is we are bragging on 100K in tests a day, but I am praying that we can ramp up testing. Testing is the ONLY way we are ever going to get the economy back.

We also need to test asymptomatic people.  I don't see our keystone cops being able to get anywhere close to the testing volume required to get that done even over a 3 year period. 

Not to mention all the people that had moderate symptoms that didn't require hospitalization. They should get to know if they already had it.  That may even be the most important thing because that is the data we need to learn about immunity and/or reinfection possibilities. 

Edited by FondrenRoad

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Just now, FondrenRoad said:

We also need to test asymptomatic people.  I don't see our keystone cops being able to get anywhere close to the testing volume required to get that done even over a 3 year period. 

Not to mention all the people that had moderate symptoms that didn't require hospitalization. They should get to know if they already had it.

Exactly!  Testing is the only way to get the empirical evidence to where we "the herd" will feel safe going out and spending and moving on.  There are shit tons of asymptomatic people accidentally spreading the virus unknowingly.  What we have done, at least in Austin, is "quarantine" the unknowing transmitters via the isolation orders.   Shit tons of testing, testing at walmart, costco, walgreens, CVS,   I would actually use high school parking lots for a lot of this testing. They are empty and would provide local well knows places for Residents to be tested.

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35 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Exactly!  Testing is the only way to get the empirical evidence to where we "the herd" will feel safe going out and spending and moving on.  There are shit tons of asymptomatic people accidentally spreading the virus unknowingly.  What we have done, at least in Austin, is "quarantine" the unknowing transmitters via the isolation orders.   Shit tons of testing, testing at walmart, costco, walgreens, CVS,   I would actually use high school parking lots for a lot of this testing. They are empty and would provide local well knows places for Residents to be tested.

Yeah, I'm past ready to know.  My family and I are in a hotzone and have been moderately sick over the last two weeks.  I was sicker, but extreme fatigue, light shortness of breath, dry cough, and gastro problems were my worst symptoms, only lasted a few days, and I powered through them anyway.  I expect it was the flu or something else, but I've found myself hoping it was Covid.

We need that level of testing, but I don't see how it is going to be possible within the next 6 months.  Healthcare professionals are stretched thin working on severe cases, and the testing kits aren't there yet anyway.

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5 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

From 55,000 cases to over 121,000 cases in three days. 

Kind of makes you wonder what the numbers would be if we had enough tests for everyone.

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Yeah, I'm past ready to know.  My family and I are in a hotzone and have been moderately sick over the last two weeks.  I was sicker, but extreme fatigue, light shortness of breath, dry cough, and gastro problems were my worst symptoms, only lasted a few days, and I powered through them anyway.  I expect it was the flu or something else, but I've found myself hoping it was Covid.
We need that level of testing, but I don't see how it is going to be possible within the next 6 months.  Healthcare professionals are stretched thin working on severe cases, and the testing kits aren't there yet anyway.
That is pretty much every common symptom of Covid. Did you ever take your temperature?

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I’m with Fondren. Was in New Orleans a week after Fat Tuesday for work and we did spend time in the quarter. Came back and a couple days later was having chest tightness and a cough that came and went but no other symptoms. The tightness went away after a week.  Not sure if I was just having really bad allergies or some other type of sickness or if I got a mild case of the 19. I have been hoping it was the last one now that it has passed, but not sure we are ever going to get caught up enough to start thinking about a test to show if you already had it. But I think that’s going to be important if we want to inspire confidence in people to start life back up again unless a strong treatment regimen emerges or a vaccine. 

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