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College Football in 2020 in danger?

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9 hours ago, TreatyOak said:

Social-Distance-Hat.jpg

In Mexico that hat means the wife is living out those wild fantasies Tom talks about.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, David Dennison said:

Focusing on deaths misses the point completely.

In a few weeks when deaths are up but cases are down due to pulling back on the opening. Folks will say don't focus on deaths focus on cases dropping.

Edited by DanTheHorn

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12 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yes - there's the difference.  Inside vs out.  If it spread outside that easily we would have had a massive problem here in Chicago.  Trust me there's no crazy conspiracy to hide cases here.  Just like there was no conspiracy to show crazy high numbers when we had those.  Not saying you're one of these people, but there's way too many conspiracy theorists out there peddling their bullshit.  Believe it or not, they're even worse than the media. 

Yea and it all causes hysteria.  I don't know how you can say they are worse than the media though.  A few conspiracy nuts getting shit on by everyone doesn't hold near as much influence as the national media which is also fueling this in a lot of ways.  I still find it hard to believe the protests didn't significantly impact the spike.

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1 hour ago, Apex73 said:

Yea and it all causes hysteria.  I don't know how you can say they are worse than the media though.  A few conspiracy nuts getting shit on by everyone doesn't hold near as much influence as the national media which is also fueling this in a lot of ways.  I still find it hard to believe the protests didn't significantly impact the spike.

The protests did and anyone who tells you otherwise is a political hack. It is literally common sense.

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Then why are cases down in NY, Detroit, other cities in the NE and in Europe that all had protests? 
Down from the sky high numbers they had just a few weeks earlier. (NY and Detroit, idk about Europe) Its not like those metro areas are suddenly in the clear, simply others who werent as hard hit at the time are now reaching their peak.

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There are some twitter threads by @boriquagato that make an interesting case that the new spikes are mostly protest related, but many of the northern cities had already been hit so hard that they had more immunity and thus were able to weather the mass gatherings. I'm not fully on board with that, but there may be something to it. It's just hard to ignore the much more obvious sparks coming from crowded indoor bars.

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8 hours ago, DanTheHorn said:

In a few weeks when deaths are up but cases are down due to pulling back on the opening. Folks will say don't focus on deaths focus on cases dropping.

It's one of the best things about this pandemic:  cherry picking has never been better!

Cherry-shake-Maureen-Abood.jpg

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10 hours ago, Apex73 said:

Well for one thing you act like those are the only cities that had massive protests which is absurd.  Especially in the case of New York, did you forget they had a ridiculously high number of cases, like way more than everyone else for awhile before the protests?  Of course those numbers are down from what they were then because they were insanely high.  To act like having massive gatherings didn't effect the numbers, your'e completely kidding yourself.

*affect

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15 hours ago, David Dennison said:

Focusing on deaths misses the point completely.

Focusing on infections as much as we do somewhat misses the point, too. Personally, I’d like to see more attention on hospitalizations and hospitalization trends because that would put so many other numbers in context. Increased testing, increased accuracy of tests, etc. can inflate the numbers a bit or maybe more than a bit. If the virus is indeed weakening, that can affect the hospitalization numbers.

I’d also like to see all of these numbers broken down by age, race, and pre-existing medical conditions. I know some of that information is available for some states with some digging, but let’s see it up front so we know which groups are most vulnerable.

Statistics for deaths FROM vs WITH the Covid are a pipe dream at this point, but it would be nice to see some more daily data on other things. 

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17 minutes ago, ImissWallyPryor said:

Focusing on infections as much as we do somewhat misses the point, too. Personally, I’d like to see more attention on hospitalizations and hospitalization trends because that would put so many other numbers in context. Increased testing, increased accuracy of tests, etc. can inflate the numbers a bit or maybe more than a bit. If the virus is indeed weakening, that can affect the hospitalization numbers.

I’d also like to see all of these numbers broken down by age, race, and pre-existing medical conditions. I know some of that information is available for some states with some digging, but let’s see it up front so we know which groups are most vulnerable.

Statistics for deaths FROM vs WITH the Covid are a pipe dream at this point, but it would be nice to see some more daily data on other things. 

This is where I am as well.  Focusing on cases at this point also misses the point entirely.

Clemson football has around 25% of their team infected by COVID.  I am guessing that most of them would never know that they had it unless they were forced to do the test.  How many others are doing the same type of thing before they let employees return to offices?  I have no idea how many, but it would seem like a significant group of people are being tested that are not showing symptoms right now.

Hospitalization was the reason for flattening the curve.  It should be the metric we are all following now.  I know the limitations with HIPAA, but a generalization of hospital stats should be what we focus on as decisions are made.  Monitoring deaths still matters obviously, but it is a lagging indicator.

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10 hours ago, Apex73 said:

Yea and it all causes hysteria.  I don't know how you can say they are worse than the media though.  A few conspiracy nuts getting shit on by everyone doesn't hold near as much influence as the national media which is also fueling this in a lot of ways.  I still find it hard to believe the protests didn't significantly impact the spike.

The conspiracy nuts just seem to get joy from their lunacy. The media is grossly incompetent. They have neither the brain power nor the desire to dig deep enough to properly explain anything even remotely this technical or complicated. They are happy to have their story match some narrative they believe in and leave it at that. 

I've spent my life in a field that is technical, but it's not magic. When a story hits the media from my field it's usually cringeworthy, and it's usually because they just didn't bother to get it right.

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13 hours ago, Apex73 said:

Wow what a great opposing view.  Do you have anything of substance to say or is that what you do to avoid having a discussion you don't have the intelligence to engage in?  I'm gonna go with the latter.

not that i agree with 6th street on everything but i took that post to be responding with like commentary..... just saying.  say dumb things get dumb responses.  

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Focusing on infections as much as we do somewhat misses the point, too. Personally, I’d like to see more attention on hospitalizations and hospitalization trends because that would put so many other numbers in context. Increased testing, increased accuracy of tests, etc. can inflate the numbers a bit or maybe more than a bit. If the virus is indeed weakening, that can affect the hospitalization numbers.
I’d also like to see all of these numbers broken down by age, race, and pre-existing medical conditions. I know some of that information is available for some states with some digging, but let’s see it up front so we know which groups are most vulnerable.
Statistics for deaths FROM vs WITH the Covid are a pipe dream at this point, but it would be nice to see some more daily data on other things. 

In Texas, hospitalizations and ICU capacity have dominated this week’s news cycles. Ive seen them broken down by age and race.

20-year olds are the fastest growing group of positive cases in Texas.

Right now, Latinos and African-Americans have the highest rates of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

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20 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

A lady in my mom's office refused to wear a mask and cited this exact reasoning.  Of course, she tested positive on Friday and now everybody there has to get tested.

Can you get me her address?  I'd like to mail her a "Get Better and Fuck You" card.

19 hours ago, Valmy77 said:

Strikes me that there could be people filling up the hospitals in San Antonion recently and death rates could be falling in Texas. Both of those things can be true at the same time.

Probably some combination of the fact that deaths are a trailing indicator and younger people going out and partying while older folks largely stay home.

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3 hours ago, ImissWallyPryor said:

Focusing on infections as much as we do somewhat misses the point, too. Personally, I’d like to see more attention on hospitalizations and hospitalization trends because that would put so many other numbers in context. Increased testing, increased accuracy of tests, etc. can inflate the numbers a bit or maybe more than a bit. If the virus is indeed weakening, that can affect the hospitalization numbers.

I’d also like to see all of these numbers broken down by age, race, and pre-existing medical conditions. I know some of that information is available for some states with some digging, but let’s see it up front so we know which groups are most vulnerable.

Statistics for deaths FROM vs WITH the Covid are a pipe dream at this point, but it would be nice to see some more daily data on other things. 

8991bb08-b584-11ea-8ecb-0994e384dffe?dpr

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6 hours ago, Bartles said:

There are some twitter threads by @boriquagato that make an interesting case that the new spikes are mostly protest related, but many of the northern cities had already been hit so hard that they had more immunity and thus were able to weather the mass gatherings. I'm not fully on board with that, but there may be something to it. It's just hard to ignore the much more obvious sparks coming from crowded indoor bars.

Los Angeles was not "open" when the protests happened. In fact, I vividly remember having my first meal at a restaurant in 3 months the day they started, then that night, shit hit the fan, Fairfax was destroyed, and everything was immediately shuttered again, this time with plywood. Anyone who says that mass protests, of which there were many and for days, did not contribute to the rise in positive test results from the younger population here is completely and 100% full of shit. There is no other logical reason for it. 

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14 hours ago, Apex73 said:

Yea I'm not denying we opened shit back up way too fast and that definitely contributed too but protests definitely contributed heavily too.  I don't care what the media says.  Protests have way more people gathered together at once than restaurants, businesses, bars, etc.  Talking about people by the hundreds and in some cases thousands.  Though there are new studies out that suggest UV rays kill the virus so I could see that being a possibility in some areas if protests are being held in sunlight.

Maybe if people were protesting inside buildings that had circular airflow. The "media" is reporting what studies are showing. 

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I probably just wasted my time, but it's parking selection day. So I went ahead and bought parking for the season. I would imagine I'll get all or part of that back in about 6 weeks. But WTH, if by some miracle we have spectators in the stands I'll have a place to park. 

They seem to be pressing on as normal except for the seating selection part of the drill.

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Posted (edited)

If anyone is interesting in some data and empirical evidence around Covid and the protests instead of running around with your hair on fire screaming "but the protests!!", here you go:

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf

I suspect most of you are not interested in that though. 

Cliff's:

Likewise, while it is possible that the protests caused an increase in the spread of COVID-19 among those who attended the protests, we demonstrate that the protests had little effect on the spread of COVID19 for the entire population of the counties with protests during the more than three weeks following protest onset. In most cases, the estimated longer-run effect (post-21 days) was negative, though not statistically distinguishable from zero.20

Edited by BradInATX

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21 minutes ago, 927 E. 41st said:

I probably just wasted my time, but it's parking selection day. So I went ahead and bought parking for the season. I would imagine I'll get all or part of that back in about 6 weeks. But WTH, if by some miracle we have spectators in the stands I'll have a place to park. 

They seem to be pressing on as normal except for the seating selection part of the drill.

You're gonna get a sweet spot.

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12 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

If anyone is interesting in some data and empirical evidence around Covid and the protests instead of running around with your hair on fire screaming "but the protests!!", here you go:

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf

I suspect most of you are not interested in that though.

That is an interesting study. The point that the protests actually caused MORE social distancing in the immediate aftermath is a valid one. In LA, we had forced curfews, and all the shops and restaurants that were beginning their re-opening plans indeed put a halt to that, either out of self-preservation or to make repairs from the damage. 

"We demonstrate that cities which had protests saw an increase in social distancing behavior for the overall population relative to cities that did not. In addition, we find no evidence that net COVID-19 case growth differentially rose following the onset of Black Lives Matter protests, and even modest evidence of a small longer-run case growth decline."

The issue here is that we are now experiencing a "spike", which lines up very closely with the lag time of the protests. And despite the fact that protesters were largely wearing masks, as we know from the CDC and others expert sources, simple cloth coverings are not very effective, and can also lead to constant face-touching, which defeats their purpose to a large degree. That study of infection trends also cuts off around June 20. 

That study also fails to convey the consequence that once the protests started, the general thought especially among the age demographic of the protesters was "COVID is over, and the police are not going to enforce it anymore." So while the social distancing among non-protesters may have increased, the social distancing among the younger population did not. It is also difficult to pinpoint where a new infection might have come from when many states, NY and California included, specifically avoided asking people if they had been at a protest when they took their test. 

So let me ask this: if the protests had no adverse affect on the rise in COVID positive test results that we have seen in the past 9 days, what has caused the rise in Los Angeles county? And if these huge gatherings didn't cause a spike, why are gatherings among anyone but your immediate family now banned in LA? Leaving aside the fact that we have seen a large uptick in actual testing being conducted and a large uptick in hospitalizations and doctor visits for non-COVID related reasons, and people seeking employment are also required to test, and any positive tests result in testing among their families and contacts as well....if we leave all of those facts aside....what has caused the spike? It is certainly not  bars or the beach or bike paths.

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3 minutes ago, Sejjr said:

what has caused the spike? It is certainly not  bars or the beach or bike paths.

I think it's been young people who either think this is overblown or think it's basically a cold. I've just heard from friends who are testing positive from going on a boat party in Austin. There are pictures all over showing crowded bars, pool parties, and boat parties. No masks and no social distancing. That's what is fueling the current spike.

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40 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

If anyone is interesting in some data and empirical evidence around Covid and the protests instead of running around with your hair on fire screaming "but the protests!!", here you go:

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf

I suspect most of you are not interested in that though. 

Cliff's:

 

 

Thanks for sharing this.  I've had a hard time finding good data on this.  If true, it is great news that mass gatherings outside don't seem to cause a substantial increase in cases.  That could be an important data point for policymakers deciding whether to keep beaches, parks, and other outdoor forums open as cases increase.

The problem here is the disparate treatment between BLM protesters and "Open the Economy" protesters.  The viewpoint discrimination by many in the media (and I suspect many on this website) is frustratingly hypocritical.  When the "Open the Economy" protesters were out in full force in early May, countless Americans were proclaiming that those people were irresponsible hicks who (1) were all going to get infected; (2) would cause exponential spikes in cases; and (3) should decline treatment after their inevitable infection because they assumed the risk from engaging in such grossly negligent behavior as peacefully assembling to protest for a cause they believed in.

Then, a matter of weeks later, the same people who were eviscerating the "Open the Economy" protesters were either (1) themselves engaged in BLM protests; or (2) vocally supportive of such protests.  That's fine - I'm a big believer in exercising one's right to peacefully assemble and petition the government for redress of grievances.  It's the hypocrisy that I and many others can't stand.  It seems clear that many people who are trying to draw a correlation between case spikes and the BLM protesters are doing so out frustration at that hypocrisy.  If the data doesn't support that, then good; fewer cases is a good thing.  But the hypocrisy is still there.

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5 hours ago, ImissWallyPryor said:

Focusing on infections as much as we do somewhat misses the point, too. Personally, I’d like to see more attention on hospitalizations and hospitalization trends because that would put so many other numbers in context. Increased testing, increased accuracy of tests, etc. can inflate the numbers a bit or maybe more than a bit. If the virus is indeed weakening, that can affect the hospitalization numbers.

I’d also like to see all of these numbers broken down by age, race, and pre-existing medical conditions. I know some of that information is available for some states with some digging, but let’s see it up front so we know which groups are most vulnerable.

Statistics for deaths FROM vs WITH the Covid are a pipe dream at this point, but it would be nice to see some more daily data on other things. 

Agree that hospitalizations is the #1 stat - because it shows how the medical system is being stressed
Deaths are important, but are a lagging indicator - by then there isn't much you can do to stem the tide
But IMO too much emphasis is given to positive tests, because it doesn't relate to the number of tests, I think they should disclose the % positive tests because that can tell you if the rate is rising (meaning a higher R0) or if the rate is falling (related to increased testing). But I also realize the there is some variability due to positive people having to retest multiple times, same person testing negative multiple times, etc.

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16 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Protests may be a small factor.  If they had a lot to do with it we wouldn't have just shut the entire Covid unit down at UofC.  You can look up where UofC is located.  No way in hell, we'd have been able to close that if the protests caused a large flare up.  If anyone says they had 'nothing' to do with it - yeah, that would be absurd.  But, again, it wasn't a huge factor.  NYC very low too.  FL has more cases then all of europe...sure there's more testing but I highly doubt FL tested more patients than all of Europe.  It just puts into context, the type of flare up we are having.  There's a massive difference in how the virus spreads inside vs outside...Texas, AZ, and FL opened up indoor shit way too fast.  Nobody can deny that. 

Well the mistake was closing the indoor stuff before the virus was even here.  That used up the general public's energy for remaining inside when the outdoor weather was (in AZ's case very good).  Now they're asking for a 2nd round of some kind of lockdowns right after people thought the first was a total waste.

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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Positive test rates are rising.  Those numbers are out there.

Can you provide your source for percent positive case rates? This chart appears to disagree with your statement.

Image

Edited by Sejjr

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FROM WBAP 820AM: Dallas County reports 601 additional Covid-19 cases and 20 additional deaths.  Reply STOP to quit. 

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2 minutes ago, MontereyMX said:

FROM WBAP 820AM: Dallas County reports 601 additional Covid-19 cases and 20 additional deaths.  Reply STOP to quit. 

STOP

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1 hour ago, Sejjr said:

Can you provide your source for percent positive case rates? This chart appears to disagree with your statement.

Image

Wait wait wait

You didn't even provide a source (link or credit this data) for your own chart and you're asking people to provide sources to dispute your unsourced data? 

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TX: The statewide 7-day positivity rate crawled back over 14 percent. It was under 4.5 percent a month ago, and under 7 percent 2 weeks ago.

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5 hours ago, Eskimohorn said:


In Texas, hospitalizations and ICU capacity have dominated this week’s news cycles. Ive seen them broken down by age and race.

20-year olds are the fastest growing group of positive cases in Texas.

Right now, Latinos and African-Americans have the highest rates of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

Maybe the protests were a bad idea.

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Just now, HtownHorn said:

Maybe the protests were a bad idea.

ITS NOT THE PROTESTS CAUSING THE INCREASE.

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5 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Maybe the protests were a bad idea.

Maybe opening bars, gyms, churches and restaurants was a worse one. 

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3 hours ago, Sejjr said:..what has caused the spike? It is certainly not  bars or the beach or bike paths.

Its not the bars? Literally over 100 people got infected from one bar in Michigan that was open a week.

It’s not the beach? There are stories all over of clusters of people who got infected after going to the beach for a week.

wheres the stories of dozens of protestors who got infected?

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, MotownHorn said:

Its not the bars? Literally over 100 people got infected from one bar in Michigan that was open a week.

It’s not the beach? There are stories all over of clusters of people who got infected after going to the beach for a week.

wheres the stories of dozens of protestors who got infected?

Reading comprehension is clearly lost on you. I very specifically and clearly asked about Los Angeles County. I did not ask about Michigan, or your "stories of clusters of infected people" on a beach somewhere. Bars were not reopened here. Beach infections are trivial (outdoor infections, see:protests) as are infections on bike trails, though I am sure you have many stories of bike trail infections somewhere.

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Wait wait wait

You didn't even provide a source (link or credit this data) for your own chart and you're asking people to provide sources to dispute your unsourced data? 

You really got me good. That chart comes from information from the Covid Tracking Project. Just like the chart referenced above from John's Hopkins. And nearly all the charts that get tossed around on twitter.

Edited by Sejjr

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24 minutes ago, MotownHorn said:

Its not the bars? Literally over 100 people got infected from one bar in Michigan that was open a week.

It’s not the beach? There are stories all over of clusters of people who got infected after going to the beach for a week.

wheres the stories of dozens of protestors who got infected?

Literally?

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Doing something right in Lubbock, although watch them hold a celebration party for eliminating the virus
 
@nicoleauerbach
Texas Tech announces that it has completed 21 additional tests for COVID-19 among its football newcomers/staff members with zero positive results. Texas Tech has completed 218 tests for football athletes/staff with a total of 23 positive results, all of which are now recovered.

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2 minutes ago, TrashMaster G said:

Literally?

I sure hope so. If this thing starts infecting people figuratively, we will literally be  fucked. 

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