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  1. Machinator

    Machinator

    Certifiably Surly


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      130

    • Posts

      44358


  2. MoJames

    MoJames

    Burnt Ends


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      94

    • Posts

      7723


  3. F250

    F250

    Legacy Members


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      79

    • Posts

      16649


  4. closetojumping

    closetojumping

    Burnt Ends


    • Points

      72

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      15013


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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/26/21 in Posts

  1. For fuck's sake, can't y'all find somewhere on the football board to have this debate?
    26 points
  2. If you guys make Machinator re-retire, I'm gonna come kill you all.
    18 points
  3. Did you wake up today and say to yourself: "I think I'm going to pull the bookshelf on top of myself in public. It just feels right."?
    16 points
  4. xpost from IT ND site To answer a few questions. 1. Oghoufo was likely going to be the 2nd string rush end behind Isaiah Foskey (RS/JR and possibly 3rd string behind Jordan Botelho (RS FR) at Notre Dame. It was a surprise to many that he decided to transfer, but he had his mind made up since at least the end of October that he was leaving Notre Dame. He stuck it out for his teammates over the last few months. 2. He was somewhat positionless at Notre Dame, which was somewhat unfortunate. He was originally recruited to play LB, but then started his career at rush end. He never quite put on enough weight to play the spot, so he was more of a sub-package guy. I think he'll be fine in the B12 as he won't be facing power run programs as much, so it'll give him a better shot to stay on the field as a 3-down guy. 3. Oghoufo did play against Alabama and quite a bit as Notre Dame’s starter (Daelin Hayes) didn’t play much due to an injury. I wouldn’t take too much from that game as he was in over his head against Alex Leatherwood. Overall in 2020, Oghoufo played around 15-20 snaps a game. Notre Dame rotated quite a bit so he did get some snaps on first and second down, but right now, he’s a better pass rusher than anything else. 4. He looks longer than he is, but if he can develop some pass rush counters and better hands he can be effective. He can also drop and be pretty decent there. The tools are there, but he didn’t hold the edge enough at Notre Dame for him to see consistent time. He was also stuck behind Julian Okwara and Daelin Hayes for the first two years and then Hayes and Isaiah Foskey in 2020. He’ll be good enough to plug and play, but not sold him being a game wrecker. 5. High character kid and a character. He committed super early to Notre Dame as his high school teammate Khalid Kareem played for the Irish (now with the Bengals), so he has a good support system around him. I think a fresh start will be good for him. You guys will definitely enjoy getting to know him. - Matt Freeman, IrishSportsDaily
    14 points
  5. I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the length because this post is me spiking the football and other than banter about the moves GME makes in the future, this is the last time I ever dig into the fundamentals of the GME trade. What we saw today was covering either due to what is called a gamma squeeze or a short squeeze. Maybe a mix of both. We won't really know until later, possibly at the end of close Wednesday when brokerages like TD update their short interest. A gamma squeeze occurs as the price moves up, crossing the thresholds of strike prices of calls that will soon be expiring. Market Makers use the Delta of an option to determine how many shares of a stock they should purchase in preparation of possibly covering the calls when they are exercised, either by the buyer of the call or upon expiring in the money. As the share price goes up, combined with the days getting closer to expiry, up goes the Delta, up goes the amount of shares the MMs buy. Last Friday, every call on the board for GME was in the money at expiry. I'll repeat: EVERY CALL ON THE BOARD WAS ITM AT EXPIRY. I don't know if that's ever happened in the history of the market. That means that if every call was exercised, 11.7 million shares would need to be transferred over to the new owners today and tomorrow. Now, as the Delta on a lot of the lower strikes were already at 1 and the shares already (hopefully for the call seller) purchased, it shouldn't be a big deal. However, the big pop happened ON Friday, not before. That caused a mad scramble in the after hours Friday, today, and possibly tomorrow for those who are gambling on the price decreasing further before they fill those calls. So, that's a gamma squeeze. Price creeps up, MMs who sell calls end up buying shares to cover, causing the price to climb higher, and then creating essentially a feedback loop spiking the price when combined with buying from retail or pops on positive news. What is happening, and may continue to happen, is the result of hedge funds and possibly Bank of America rampantly shorting GME over the course of a year hoping that it goes zero and they then get to pocket everything and give nothing back. The short float on December 31st was 140% and the institutional ownership was 117%. But how is such a thing possible? They borrowed shares to either 1.) sell, never intending to buy them back and return them because they were hell bent on bankrupting GME, or 2.) lent out those already borrowed shares that they never intended to give back anyway to collect the premium, creating a borrowed share of a borrowed share. They would also buy dips incrementally, amassing large positions, sell calls and buy puts with a quick expiry, then dump all of the shares they accumulated at once while simultaneously shorting to tank the price and pocket the premiums on the options they bought and sold. Then, when that wasn't enough, they sold naked shorts. They sold shares they didn't even have or even exist. They injected "synthetic shares" into the market. Synthetic, fugazi, fogazi. It's a wazi, it's a woozi. They're fairy dust. They don't exist. They're not fucking real. But the people and institutional investors they sold them to bought the right to own the shares. And those banks and hedge funds are obligated to deliver them. But now there aren't enough shares to go around. There's an infinite demand for shares, but a finite supply. In a total share recall event, the lenders of the shorted shares could recall every share on borrow and still be 21 MILLION shares short of demand. The banks and hedge funds that created that SHOULD be on the hook. It SHOULD be illegal. Think of how depressed the price was because of it. Think of the loss of market cap, which led to lowered credit ratings, which led to higher interest rates and less borrowing power, and the layoffs and store closures that followed. Awful. The price should go to infinity because the demand the banks and hedge funds created will become infinity. Boomers can bitch and moan about RH and college kids dumping their stimmy into GME all they want, but the reality is that a bunch of boomer bankers and hedge funds created a situation that should be legally, economically, and financially impossible. Boomers want to call what retail investors are doing "market manipulation." However, anyone who dug into the situation enough saw the writing on the wall. Honest to goodness due diligence combined with simple supply/demand economics combined with paying attention to the new market trend of retail investors told anyone interested all they needed to know. This was me back in September: The price hadn't even hit $10, yet, when I said that. The house of cards had already been built. A fan had been placed in front of it. And everyone told me that I was crazy for thinking the house of cards would fall over. It wasn't a secret. It was in plain fucking sight. And we are finding out it is everywhere. Wall Street and old guys in banking and finance can harumph all they want about how a bunch of dumb wage earners are gaming their system to make a buck, but I think the reality is that the curtain has started getting pulled back on Old Man Oz. Take me, for example. I've given a detailed breakdown and have proof in this very thread that I had produced this investment thesis MONTHS before it was mainstream and materialized. I gave my credentials above. Want to know how long I've been actively investing? Since March. Same as all the Robinhood punks. All it takes for a large chunk of the population to be competent in anything is 1. Time 2. Education/training, and 3. Financial resources. In March, there was the perfect storm of 1. COVID lockdowns, 2. The internet and educational resources on the various trading platforms, and 3. Stimulus - The ultimate Other People's Money. Millions of $3k hedge funds popped up all over the nation and had the time, education, and money to be just dangerous enough. I traded in a paper account on Think Or Swim for 30 days and was then off to the races. I developed a momentum trading strategy where I combined candlestick patterns, moving average patterns, the RSI, and the Elliot Wave. Not only that, I also voraciously consumed anything I could get my hands on about market history, valuations, and trends. I bought and sold stocks, bought options, and sold covered calls and generated a 10% return over the course of about a month. Then I stumbled on GME, halted all active trading, liquidated any outstanding options, sat on my KO, XOM, and PFE (which was my worst trade) shares and positioned myself into GME. My return is now over 1000%. Either I'm some kind of wonder boy who picked all this up quickly because I'm a high functioning autistic person... Or maybe this shit just ain't as hard as Wall Street wants us to think it is. And maybe Wall Street was so habitually comfortable with how little people knew about their industry in the past that they didn't even bother concealing their moves because they didn't think retail investors would know how to play the other side. Well, the secret's out. This new batch of retail investors spent the last decade learning how to min/max various economic systems in video games. They are accustomed to dumping hours of time learning how to maximize returns on digital assets. They went from watching hours of YouTube videos on how to mine diamonds and make a Fortune 3 pick axe in Minecraft to watching hours of how to turn a couple grand into 5 figures. In some cases, 6 or 7 figures. As I stated earlier, I sold half of my position in GME today, but I still firmly believe in the trade I executed. I am now concerned about two things, one being specific to GME. I think the invisible hand of the free market is about to get absolutely doomfisted by either the government or big banks. I think a lot of institutions out there are shook. When GME hit $150 and other short squeezes were popping, a huge market sell-off occurred. I think funds were liquidating to cover their losses because margin calls were going out. In GME alone today, short sellers lost $1.6 billion according to Business Insider. Melvin Capital, supposedly the biggest short seller of GME out there, is down a whopping 30% for 2021, so far. They manage billions. We learned in 2008 that these banks and funds actually interweave into a structural support for the entire financial system. If a multi-billion dollar part of that support structure fails, it increases the strain on the others, and then another fails, and then we have a cascade failure. I think GME and the big shorts come together and negotiate a share purchase of newly issued shares under the condition that they are immediately transferred to the rightful owners to get the short float below 100%. This is actually extremely bullish for GME. They erase their remaining debt, buy out of all of their bad leases, and increase their cash long enough for the turn around. That's why I only sold half of my position. I'm long GME. In Ryan Cohen I trust. But I also think the government steps in and does something to try to fix the rest of the market. As history has shown us, this doesn't mean punishing the banks who created the situation in the first place. No, they're going to increase the regulations on the retail investors. That could also have grave, unintended consequences when retail cashes out all at once. So, I feel really good about today, but there may be grave consequences in future. I'll end with the cringiest thing possible: be a retail trader who uses a scene from The Big Short in one of his posts.
    14 points
  6. Bumping for one very sad anniversary, but also for the anniversary tomorrow of the greatest post in Surly history.
    13 points
  7. In actual recruiting news, an Oregon 247 mod says we're making a push with J.T. Tuimolau:
    13 points
  8. Just once, one fucking time, I want to hear the gun crowd be honest. Cut the shit about why you have a dozen guns and a built-up AR for protection or ensuring that you can take up arms against a hostile government, and just admit that you like guns. I'd respect that argument. There's nothing wrong with liking guns. Guns are cool (when used and stored safely). Fast cars are cool and dangerous as well. But every public road in America has a speed limit, and you can only drive a Formula 1 car on a track with the proper permits and licenses.
    13 points
  9. It was on Hunter Biden's laptop. Prove them wrong, sheep.
    13 points
  10. Referring to girls a whores even with modifiers feels fucking wrong to me. Blotto's obsession with whores is very incel/puritanical. Your variance of it seems a bit more careless. We all should strive to do a little better (especially that asshole who posts his name backwards).
    13 points
  11. Holy crap. This thread is turning into a Facebook comment section. The mRNA "shots" are indeed vaccines. The argument lies in efficacy. And the theoretical complete immunity vs asymptomatic infection and spread panties in a wad debate is theoretical at this point. We just don't have enough data yet. If we can achieve herd immunity then we can drive R values down significantly and reduce the chance of sustained spread even if the vaccine fails in certain individuals or for those who cannot receive the vaccine. This is the way most vaccines have worked since the mid 20th century. Most likely, based on preliminary data, the mRNA vaccines will prevent most people from becoming infected with Covid 19 and subsequently spreading the disease. And even if the disease is spread then others who are vaccinated have a much lower chance of serious Covid infections. Mutated strains MAY change this but not a given despite all the hand wringing articles from the MSM that cherry pick statements from "officials". Get off your Google News feeds, Fox and MSNBC and start doing your own research.
    13 points
  12. Listen, fucknut, you showed up with the argument that Evan Stewart did not possess Olympic speed. Others countered with two points - 1) going off of times from a sophomore track season that ended abruptly before it really got going isn't actually indicative of the potential capability of Stewart from a track speed perspective now and 2) he's actually focused on an event that doesn't have football implications but may, in fact, have Olympic speed in that event. You ignored both rebuttals in an effort to trudge forward with irrelevant stupidity. Everything you've offered since your original shitty take has evidenced an immature inability to simply offer a mea culpa that you were wrong with your original snark and move on. Congrats though. You've managed to spike the thread away from the impending glory of Stewart committing to Texas because he's a bad ass football player and redirected things into a discussion about Olympic speed and boring track shit.
    12 points
  13. Never get in a land war in Asia. Never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city. And, never, I mean never... get in a pissing match with @closetojumping about sprinting.
    11 points
  14. I negged him once last week for a bad take on something, so he' freaked out, apparently, and he's been following me around on the board negging legitimate recruiting and football discussions, including me going after the okie for his weak logic as well. Then the dipshit shows up with the bad track takes here, so I negged him a couple of times. He then, this morning, sends me a PM saying "You got a problem?" Uhhh, yeah, I do now. I didn't notice the handle before, but yeah, now you've got my attention. It's always strange to me when a new poster decides I'm the poster with whom they're going to fuck with and talk shit.
    11 points
  15. Ears to the streets, but there has been an uptick in activity on the Burton side. I am feeling more optimistic. - Roach
    10 points
  16. Amen. And this is me. I like guns. They are fun. I have an Armalite AR. I'm not some crazy ban all weapons person. But I can see the glaring need for regulation, and in fact, I WANT more regulation because I'm tired of being associated with a bunch of pencil dick Gravy Seal cosplayers. If I has to give up an AR to get more reasonable gun regulation I wouldn't blink an eye, it's just something I like having, not some necessity.
    10 points
  17. With all due respect - the idea that Austin offers more temptations to an alcoholic than anywhere else is stupid as fuck.
    10 points
  18. That’s a good question. I tend to think of Q as a kind of urban legend or cult religious belief. The spread of such beliefs is governed by similar rules that apply in epidemiology, Darwinian evolution, and the proliferation of memes. Ideas with certain characteristics are more likely to be adopted and spread. Opposition to a heinous crime is a characteristic of a cult belief system that would seemingly cause it to spread more effectively. Such a belief fosters solidarity (Who doesn’t agree that sex predators should be punished severely?), inspires a strong emotional response (What is more heartbreaking than the idea of child abuse?), and discourages skeptical responses (Who wants to explain why they oppose a movement purportedly trying to reduce child abuse?). In that sense, the child abuse angle is kind of like the proteins on a virus that unlock a pathway into vulnerable cells. It weakens resistance and opens a door for all the other nonsense that comes along for the ride. And that’s why so many of these successful urban legend cult movements throughout the years have come attached to unfounded allegations of extreme, widespread immorality — because those allegations are what makes the myth so successful at propagating in the first place.
    9 points
  19. 9 points
  20. 9 points
  21. My wife overslept this morning and was running very late. Of course, there was 10 minutes of crying and shouting expletives before the actual getting ready began. Sh gt out of the house in plenty of time to make it to work in spite of all that. About 5 minutes after she left she called me and asked if she had left her phone at home.
    9 points
  22. Good luck kid, I will always remember the times we had with you here at Texas. Thank you for this last one, had you not fumbled the ball Herman may still be here.
    8 points
  23. Sometime today, the number of people in Travis Co that have received their first dose will exceed the number of people in Travis Co that have had a confirmed case of COVID.
    8 points
  24. If Sark can just get us good enough to get into the playoff picture this has the possibility to be the greatest BOMC meltdown in aggy history.
    8 points
  25. Are you calling her daughter an “attention whore”? She is a 15 year old girl who is posting videos of her mother abusing her. She has been gradually making public more and more serious evidence of the abuse she is suffering at her mother’s hand. She is not looking for attention in the way you are implying. She is looking for attention as a plea for help. Calling an abused child an “attention whore” for making her abuse public is really shitty.
    8 points
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