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2020 astros offseason


elfenix

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Little surprised with this, particularly  with the new 3 batter rule. He’s only effective against rightys. 

 

I’m afraid people are already overblowing the three batter minimum rule.

Joe appeared 28 times in 2019. Only 4 times he faced fewer than 3 batters and in all 4 of those, he finished the inning.

 

In the postseason, he appeared 10 times. Only twice he faced fewer than 3 batters. And 1 of those he finished the inning.

 

So had the rule been in place this year, out of 38 total appearances, it would have forced Hinch to leave Smith in for a grand total of....exactly 1 extra batter.

 

I’m betting you’ll find similar stats up and down most team’s bullpens. I know someone did the stats when the rule was first discussed before the 2019 season but don’t recall how minimal of an impact this is going to be.

And if anything, I’m going to laugh if it has the opposite effect... forcing a manager to leave a pitcher in in crunch time, allow more batters to have a plate appearance, possibly tying the game, extra innings, etc, etc.

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One of the MLB Radio hosts (the one with the My Little Pony voice) said from the winter meetings that there were a lot of players that would refuse to go to Houston now.  Not everyone, but it was becoming a real issue for the Astros. 

FWIW, the same host had been pretty vocal after the scandal broke that the Astros were not the only team pulling spying shenanigans, specifically mentioning the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cubs, and "Everybody does it to one extent or another."  So he's not one of the idiots with a hateon for the Astros.  But after Luhnow's emails came out he also thinks that Houston is going to get hammered hard and made an example of.  As in maybe a year's suspension for Hinch, Luhnow, and maybe time off for some players, too.

I'd have no problem with a year's suspension for Luhnow, IF other teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, etc. were also punished proportionally to their similar tactics (and evidence so far looks like the Astros went the furthest in this type of cheating.  Pretty brazen for Luhnow to put that crap in emails.)  But it sounds more like the power clubs are pushing hard to make an example of Houston and as a result knock down one of their toughest competitors.  

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3 hours ago, clapclapclap said:

One of the MLB Radio hosts (the one with the My Little Pony voice) said from the winter meetings that there were a lot of players that would refuse to go to Houston now.  Not everyone, but it was becoming a real issue for the Astros. 

FWIW, the same host had been pretty vocal after the scandal broke that the Astros were not the only team pulling spying shenanigans, specifically mentioning the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cubs, and "Everybody does it to one extent or another."  So he's not one of the idiots with a hateon for the Astros.  But after Luhnow's emails came out he also thinks that Houston is going to get hammered hard and made an example of.  As in maybe a year's suspension for Hinch, Luhnow, and maybe time off for some players, too.

I'd have no problem with a year's suspension for Luhnow, IF other teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, etc. were also punished proportionally to their similar tactics (and evidence so far looks like the Astros went the furthest in this type of cheating.  Pretty brazen for Luhnow to put that crap in emails.)  But it sounds more like the power clubs are pushing hard to make an example of Houston and as a result knock down one of their toughest competitors.  

this saddens me, knowing that Luhnow was cognizant and maybe directed this type of cheating.

it also enrages me that the "power" clubs will get no foul and we'll be bearing the full brunt of this fiasco

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7 hours ago, clapclapclap said:

One of the MLB Radio hosts (the one with the My Little Pony voice) said from the winter meetings that there were a lot of players that would refuse to go to Houston now.  Not everyone, but it was becoming a real issue for the Astros. 

FWIW, the same host had been pretty vocal after the scandal broke that the Astros were not the only team pulling spying shenanigans, specifically mentioning the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cubs, and "Everybody does it to one extent or another."  So he's not one of the idiots with a hateon for the Astros.  But after Luhnow's emails came out he also thinks that Houston is going to get hammered hard and made an example of.  As in maybe a year's suspension for Hinch, Luhnow, and maybe time off for some players, too.

I'd have no problem with a year's suspension for Luhnow, IF other teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, etc. were also punished proportionally to their similar tactics (and evidence so far looks like the Astros went the furthest in this type of cheating.  Pretty brazen for Luhnow to put that crap in emails.)  But it sounds more like the power clubs are pushing hard to make an example of Houston and as a result knock down one of their toughest competitors.  

When did Luhnow emails come out?  I saw rumors that he may have been stupid enough to put the plot in emails, but never saw that it was confirmed.  I admit it hasn’t exactly been the most pressing thing on my plate the last couple of weeks.

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So i knew there was a lot of talk but hadn’t heard it was official that Miley was tipping in September. That’s a shame

Some good quotes from Miley here

Gonna miss him

 

 

 

It was perhaps the most shocking individual collapse of the 2019 season.

 

Entering September, Astros left-hander Wade Miley had a 3.06 ERA, third in the American League. But in the final month, he posted a 16.68 ERA, recording three outs or fewer in three of his five starts.

 

“I couldn’t get an out,” Miley said. “I couldn’t get anybody to swing and miss at anything.”

 

He watched video. He consulted with Astros officials. But he had no idea what was wrong until a former teammate sent him a text message after his final regular-season start:

 

Check your glove.

 

Miley, 33, thought he had checked everything. He maintained to reporters several times in September he was not tipping pitches. But it turned out that was exactly his problem.

 

His miserable September did not prevent the Reds from signing him to a two-year, $15 million free-agent contract, an agreement that was finalized Wednesday and marked quite an achievement for a pitcher who had to accept a minor-league deal from the Brewers at the start of spring training in 2018.

 

Still, Miley’s inability to find a solution to his September troubles sooner gnawed at him all through the postseason. After a shaky outing against the Rays in Game 3 of the Division Series, the Astros left him off their rosters for the ALCS and World Series.

 

“It was not, like, depressing,” Miley said. “It was just like, ‘Damn, what could have been. What if? What if?’”

 

What if he had identified the tipping sooner? What if he had been able to contribute to the Astros during the playoffs the way he had during the first five months?

 

Through August September

ERA 3.06* 16.68

IP 156.0 11.1

Opp. AVG .232 .467

Opp. OPS .677 1.205

IP/Start 5.2 2.1

*3rd in AL in this span (min. 100 IP)

(chart: MLB Network Research)

 

Miley declined to identify the former teammate who alerted him to his issue, saying, “I don’t want to throw him under the bus.” He only wishes the player would have reached out to him sooner, knowing for competitive reasons it might not have been possible.

 

“It was like (he) waited until I was done getting my s— pushed in and then told me,” Miley said. “I was like, ‘Thanks, man. A little late, but it’s all right.’”

 

Miley, a nine-year veteran, is not one for excuses. He allowed his agent, Tom O’Connell, to inform clubs during free agency that he had been tipping. But he had not been willing to discuss the issue publicly before speaking with The Athletic on Tuesday night, and even then he was reluctant to pin all of his struggles on the problem.

 

“I’ll never know,” Miley said.

 

Astros pitching coach Brent Strom noted two other reasons for Miley’s decline in September. Strom said Miley started “pushing” his changeup, losing effectiveness with the pitch by focusing more on location than arm speed. Miley also became too reliant on his cutter, the pitch that helped revitalize his career.

 

Right-handed hitters started taking the cutter to the opposite field, and employing that approach helped them stay on Miley’s changeup and negate that pitch. Strom wanted Miley to throw more four-seam fastballs up in the zone. Miley averaged only 91.1 mph with his four-seamer in 2019, according to BrooksBaseball.net, but Strom said the pitch had enough hop to be effective.

 

Then there was the tipping. Strom did not dismiss it impact, calling it “huge.”

 

The position of Miley’s hands gave hitters “the tell” on what was coming. When Miley held his glove close to his body, it meant he would he throw an off-speed pitch, a changeup or curveball. When he moved the glove further away, it signaled a fastball or cutter.

 

“For a hitter, that’s pretty stark,” Strom said.

 

Was Miley surprised the Astros — a team known for its expertise with video — failed to pick up on something that, to trained eyes, should have been more apparent?

 

“In a way, yeah,” he said. “But we were looking. I was looking, too. I can’t get super-frustrated they didn’t notice. I don’t know how I didn’t see it, overlaying videos. I felt like it was kind of obvious.

 

“I had (the Astros’ analysts) sending me information. Is my fastball spinning the same? Is the cutter the same? Is everything the same? And they were like, ‘Yeah, it’s the same.’ But something was going on. I looked and looked and looked.”

 

Like Strom, Miley did not attribute all of his struggles in September to tipping, noting he also left more balls up in the zone. But he did detect hitters swinging at pitches they had not swung at earlier in the season, and taking pitches on which they had been swinging. The whole thing, he said, was weird. Baffling.

 

And he was not necessarily relieved once he got the answer.

 

“I was pissed at myself for not seeing it,” Miley said.

 

During his one appearance in the Division Series, Game 3 at Tropicana Field, Miley moved his hands down near his belt, wanting to better disguise his pitches. He entered the game with two on and two outs and the Astros trailing, 5-1. And it was September all over again.

 

Two-run double by Austin Meadows. RBI single by Tommy Pham. Walk to Ji-Man Choi.

 

Miley recovered to work 2 2/3 innings, his only other blemish coming on a homer by Willy Adames.

 

Not that it comforted him.

 

“That whole outing, I just felt terrible,” he said. “I was trying not to tip. The first inning, it was just the nerves. After that, everything went pretty smooth. But I wasn’t comfortable that whole entire outing, with my hands where they were. I’ve always been someone who had my hands up. It was trying to start something new from scratch.”

 

Miley said he spoke extensively with Strom about his issue, but was not about to challenge the team’s decision to leave him off its ALCS and World Series rosters. “Hell, I wouldn’t have put myself in there, either,” he said. “We were trying to win a World Series, and I was a guy who couldn’t get anybody out.”

 

Once he reached free agency, he knew he had to come clean, reveal to clubs he had been tipping, explain why he performed so poorly in September. He told his agent, O’Connell, “do what you have to do.” O’Connell found photographs and video that clearly demonstrated Miley’s problem.

 

“I was very candid with clubs. I just said, ‘Look, clearly September was an aberration,’” O’Connell said. “I showed them the video. I showed them the photos. I made them at ease understanding that was a significant issue that led to the tough month.

 

 

 

“We looked at all the Trackman data, all the stuff a lot of the clubs look at. Everything was good, consistent the entire season,” said O’Connell. “We were able to give that certain level of comfort to the clubs we were dealing with, that the Wade Miley they saw from April to August was going to be the guy they get the next couple of years.”

 

If not for his awful September, Miley might have commanded even more as a free agent than the $15 million the Reds guaranteed him. But in Cincinnati he will reunite with pitching coach Derek Johnson, who oversaw his renaissance in 2018 with the Brewers. His laid-back, affable nature makes him popular with his teammates — and his coaches, too.

 

“For me, there’s this really neat kind of leadership,” Johnson said. “He’s a happy-go-lucky guy, a guy who people seem to want to be around. He’s really good with young guys. I noticed that right away with our club in Milwaukee. He was trying to share things he had learned along the way.”

 

Said Strom: “There aren’t enough superlatives to describe this guy as a teammate and competitor. I’ve never been around a person who could get beaten up like he did so consecutively and be out of the game after one inning and then come back and sit with his teammates and pull for his teammates in the third inning — in uniform.

 

“How many major-league pitchers you know do that? Most of them will go inside and hide, do something. But he would come back in the dugout, full uniform, and be pulling for his guys. I was shocked. I was amazed.”

 

True to his nature, as Miley moves to his seventh major-league team, he is looking forward, not backward. He cannot help but wonder about what might have been, in September, in the postseason, in free agency. But he is philosophical about what his downturn might have cost him.

 

“I’m a believer in everything happens for a reason,” Miley said. “Maybe the Good Lord didn’t want me to have more money. Who knows? I try not to get too caught up in that. I’ve been blessed to do this as long as I have.”

 

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yeah "tipping" is the easy out for guys now when they suck dick.  He just sucked....plus he isn't that great to begin with.  

With as many people we have on staff that can analyze and find shit in video there is no way this wouldn't have been seen by someone here.  

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I agree that tipping doesn't account for that level of suck.  I think Miley and the Astros found something that turned a mediocre starter in to an above average pitcher for awhile until the rest of the league figured it out and since he's not that great, there was no way to counter it.  Once hitters started to go the other way with his cutter, there was simply nothing he could do about it because he has never been good at getting swings and misses.

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