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Non-Texas Recruiting Notes and Highlights: 2019 Edition


Machinator

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8 minutes ago, UDontKnow said:

He'll flip later on when he's offered a scholarship. The question will be to where?

It must be tough sledding for him right now if he's accepting a PWO offer from Tech one week after it's offered.

Hopefully his stock improves down the line though

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Maybe this is deserving of its own thread, but is there a way to analyze the acumen of the quarterback commits/recruits for schools that run the triple? Obviously the services are going to look at QBs committed to GT or an academy and see their game is deficient in passing ability, but proficient in the ability to run an offense that nobody else does. 

It's a very niche prospect for fewer than ten schools. Is there a way a big school, maybe not Texas but P5, could look to recruit QBs who run the triple and put them into the offense somewhere other than QB? Or are they usually just classified as "athletes" and are some other schools actually picking them up to play other positions and I'm just not looking hard enough? I guess Keenan Reynolds is an example of this translating from the college-to-pro ranks, but he seems like he was transcendent as far as triple QBs go.

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2 minutes ago, randygilman said:

It's a very niche prospect for fewer than ten schools. Is there a way a big school, maybe not Texas but P5, could look to recruit QBs who run the triple and put them into the offense somewhere other than QB? Or are they usually just classified as "athletes" and are some other schools actually picking them up to play other positions and I'm just not looking hard enough? I guess Keenan Reynolds is an example of this translating from the college-to-pro ranks, but he seems like he was transcendent as far as triple QBs go.

Keenan Reynolds was fantastic. He obviously studied a lot of film AND had that intrinsic ability to read a defender because he made the right read sooooo often. 

But yeah, those guys generally show up as ATH on the recruiting services QBs that mostly run veer or triple option, Wing-T,  etc ...   and generally you don't get a feel for their acumen/football IQ - even via their rankings. Ricky Seals-Jones was a good example as a recruited ATH. Most of the time they are slotted simply by their SPARQ/measurables. Fatterson harvests the mid-level option QBs and puts them all over the field on offense and defense, like Ty Summers for instance. Jeff Monken (now the Tampa Bay OC) was also a fan of finding those guys and recruiting them to come and play other spots. There have been a lot of successful TE and LB conversions from high school QBs. 

This is where having a good rapport with the high school coaches and a recruiting department that values that communication can bear some fruit. If you have a good bi-directional communication going - they'll give you a head's up on a guy that might not actually fit your program at position X but is a monster worth recruiting for position Y. It's also how you get in on those late-bloomers that pop out in their senior year from nowhere. 

 

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49 minutes ago, randygilman said:

Maybe this is deserving of its own thread, but is there a way to analyze the acumen of the quarterback commits/recruits for schools that run the triple? Obviously the services are going to look at QBs committed to GT or an academy and see their game is deficient in passing ability, but proficient in the ability to run an offense that nobody else does. 

It's a very niche prospect for fewer than ten schools. Is there a way a big school, maybe not Texas but P5, could look to recruit QBs who run the triple and put them into the offense somewhere other than QB? Or are they usually just classified as "athletes" and are some other schools actually picking them up to play other positions and I'm just not looking hard enough? I guess Keenan Reynolds is an example of this translating from the college-to-pro ranks, but he seems like he was transcendent as far as triple QBs go.

Are you impying that a good Madden coordinator could sub him out for the normal QB and wreck shop? 

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On 10/9/2018 at 1:05 PM, Fud said:

Any potential transfers to the good guys? We'll have plenty of roster space 

 

The good guys (Clemson and Texas) are unlikely to benefit from the Gus dumpster fire, but of course Bama and Georgia are lining up to poach recruits... 

 

On 10/9/2018 at 1:47 PM, Elmer_Fudd said:

Can Watson convince Pappoe to come back on a visit with him to Texas?  And Wanya Morris since Tennessee is a dumpster fire.

If it gets bad enough, I think Pappoe will flip to the Dwags, and Pickens will flip to Bama. Not sure who else is worth pushing for after those two, maybe Keiondre Jones, but I think he has ties to Florida and would probably just flip to Gata. 

Wanya is a really interesting recruit. Mama loves Tenn, but it's hard to see him staying committed to that disaster, and staying committed to an absolute shit bag of a coach in Pruitt. Having said that, he grew up a Clemson fan, but after multiple visits the two sides just can't seem to click. His second choice was supposedly Auburn, so the Dwags must have really pissed someone off at Grayson. With his first and second choice being dumpster fires, it will be interesting to see what direction his recruitment takes. He's an absolute beast on the field. 

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1 hour ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

The good guys (Clemson and Texas) are unlikely to benefit from the Gus dumpster fire, but of course Bama and Georgia are lining up to poach recruits... 

Thing is, there's a decent chance Texas has a lot of open roster space next year. We can only take so many recruits, and you can sell playing time to only so many grad transfers, so it turns into either taking in non-grad transfers to fill the open space, giving scholarships to walk-ons (not the worst idea to a point, this would motivate top walk-ons to come to Texas), or you just don't use the roster space and operate at a scholarship athlete deficit 

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1 hour ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

 

The good guys (Clemson and Texas) are unlikely to benefit from the Gus dumpster fire, but of course Bama and Georgia are lining up to poach recruits... 

 

If it gets bad enough, I think Pappoe will flip to the Dwags, and Pickens will flip to Bama. Not sure who else is worth pushing for after those two, maybe Keiondre Jones, but I think he has ties to Florida and would probably just flip to Gata. 

Wanya is a really interesting recruit. Mama loves Tenn, but it's hard to see him staying committed to that disaster, and staying committed to an absolute shit bag of a coach in Pruitt. Having said that, he grew up a Clemson fan, but after multiple visits the two sides just can't seem to click. His second choice was supposedly Auburn, so the Dwags must have really pissed someone off at Grayson. With his first and second choice being dumpster fires, it will be interesting to see what direction his recruitment takes. He's an absolute beast on the field. 

I was told by someone who knows the Grayson group that Pappoe isn't the type to go back on his word and change his commitment, but we'll see

Pickens is unlikely to qualify 

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1 hour ago, Fud said:

Thing is, there's a decent chance Texas has a lot of open roster space next year. We can only take so many recruits, and you can sell playing time to only so many grad transfers, so it turns into either taking in non-grad transfers to fill the open space, giving scholarships to walk-ons (not the worst idea to a point, this would motivate top walk-ons to come to Texas), or you just don't use the roster space and operate at a scholarship athlete deficit 

By the looks of it, you've studied the numbers looking forward to 2019 more than I have, and arguably a bunch of others. We had, what, 82 scholarships by the beginning of August drills this year? What does next year look like?

In my mind, given roster space at the moment and seniors leaving, we have room to sign 23 with no additional attrition. We know there will be natural attrition of 4-6 guys due to roster issues, grades, crime, etc. Let's say one of the two star WRs leaves early as well. Now you're at 30. Texas can only sign up to 28, and unless they really get excited about some guys or all of the open questions fall their way, the word is 25-26 guys. 

So if I am doing it right, that's 80/81 guys on the roster heading into August of 2019 barring special circumstances and not accounting for GTs or regular transfers. Is that what you've got? Or are you expecting attrition due to depth chart from more like 8-10 guys? I expected that this year and didn't see it, so I'm skeptical if that's the case. I can see JPU, Hudson (med-ret.), Carter, and Porter. Maybe Donovan Duvernay and/or Boyce? I don't know. Recent experience says more of the expected attrition candidates leave than stay. 

I'm going to assume that they enter August 2019 with like 3 open scholarships, which isn't optimal but not far off the 85 man limit. 

I'm curious to hear yours and other's thoughts.

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2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

By the looks of it, you've studied the numbers looking forward to 2019 more than I have, and arguably a bunch of others. We had, what, 82 scholarships by the beginning of August drills this year? What does next year look like?

In my mind, given roster space at the moment and seniors leaving, we have room to sign 23 with no additional attrition. We know there will be natural attrition of 4-6 guys due to roster issues, grades, crime, etc. Let's say one of the two star WRs leaves early as well. Now you're at 30. Texas can only sign up to 28, and unless they really get excited about some guys or all of the open questions fall their way, the word is 25-26 guys. 

So if I am doing it right, that's 80/81 guys on the roster heading into August of 2019 barring special circumstances and not accounting for GTs or regular transfers. Is that what you've got? Or are you expecting attrition due to depth chart from more like 8-10 guys? I expected that this year and didn't see it, so I'm skeptical if that's the case. I can see JPU, Hudson (med-ret.), Carter, and Porter. Maybe Donovan Duvernay and/or Boyce? I don't know. Recent experience says more of the expected attrition candidates leave than stay. 

I'm going to assume that they enter August 2019 with like 3 open scholarships, which isn't optimal but not far off the 85 man limit. 

I'm curious to hear yours and other's thoughts.

Boyce has been extremely open about being bought-in and loving Texas on social media. He'd have to get pushed it sounds like. Guess that's where we find out if Herman is more Dabo or Saban.

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Just now, texifornia said:

Boyce has been extremely open about being bought-in and loving Texas on social media. He'd have to get pushed it sounds like. Guess that's where we find out if Herman is more Dabo or Saban.

Cook is past him. He had a moment in time where he was the next man up and that flew by before TCU. Green is past him too, if they wind up being forced to play a guy that far down on the depth chart in meaningful minutes. He had to talk about everything on social media because of the chatter in his personal network about future PT once Cook played ahead of him in the USC game.

I'm not saying you're incorrect in thinking he's all-in. Just offering further context. This kind of stuff has proven to not be black and white lately. Some guys that were going to play meaningful snaps bowed out, such as Bonney, while guys long rumored to be leaving have stuck around and been fine, like Nelson and the Duvernays. 

In any event, I think Herman is more Urban than anybody, which is why Urban Meyer has done his level best to trash the dude, given that he's a threat in his mind that he doesn't enjoy facing if Herman gets the UT giant to its feet. I don't think he's going to trapdoor when he has roster spots available. Now, if Texas is a hot school on the transfer scene and he needs the space, sure. If there's a cancer not adding value, sure. But Saban has pushed guys out when he had room. I don't see it going in that direction, even if Saban has proven himself quite prescient when he's done that and then lo and behold some last second or mid-season highly rated transfer pops up, like the dude this year who originally signed with UW.

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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

By the looks of it, you've studied the numbers looking forward to 2019 more than I have, and arguably a bunch of others. We had, what, 82 scholarships by the beginning of August drills this year? What does next year look like?

In my mind, given roster space at the moment and seniors leaving, we have room to sign 23 with no additional attrition. We know there will be natural attrition of 4-6 guys due to roster issues, grades, crime, etc. Let's say one of the two star WRs leaves early as well. Now you're at 30. Texas can only sign up to 28, and unless they really get excited about some guys or all of the open questions fall their way, the word is 25-26 guys. 

So if I am doing it right, that's 80/81 guys on the roster heading into August of 2019 barring special circumstances and not accounting for GTs or regular transfers. Is that what you've got? Or are you expecting attrition due to depth chart from more like 8-10 guys? I expected that this year and didn't see it, so I'm skeptical if that's the case. I can see JPU, Hudson (med-ret.), Carter, and Porter. Maybe Donovan Duvernay and/or Boyce? I don't know. Recent experience says more of the expected attrition candidates leave than stay. 

I'm going to assume that they enter August 2019 with like 3 open scholarships, which isn't optimal but not far off the 85 man limit. 

I'm curious to hear yours and other's thoughts.

I'd add Shane to that list and if not, at least one of the qbs although I don't know which.  Is Houston still taking a space?  I'm not going to ask about Christmas because I hope he sticks. I think Boyce still has a shot at seeing some time on the field some way or another.

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54 minutes ago, Mdhorn said:

I'd add Shane to that list and if not, at least one of the qbs although I don't know which.  Is Houston still taking a space?  I'm not going to ask about Christmas because I hope he sticks. I think Boyce still has a shot at seeing some time on the field some way or another.

To be clear, Boyce is just spitballing on my end. He's an obvious candidate and there's been word of him having depth chart concerns, but the dude could very well be here and be a minor contributor for 3 more years and I wouldn't be shocked. 

Regarding the QBs, it's probably wishful thinking, but they really, really want to hold onto both of the younger ones for another year. They're both doing well in practice and they're both good team guys. The depth they help provide is substantial. If Texas goes up big against Kansas, I would not be surprised to see whichever young guy(s) that gets to travel take material snaps. It would be interesting to see if they take both up there. 

Buechele is a good call out. Unless he just loves Texas and has written off any ambition towards playing again, I have to assume he's transferring at the break.

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4 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Regarding the QBs, it's probably wishful thinking, but they really, really want to hold onto both of the younger ones for another year. They're both doing well in practice and they're both good team guys. The depth they help provide is substantial. If Texas goes up big against Kansas, I would not be surprised to see whichever young guy(s) that gets to travel take material snaps. It would be interesting to see if they take both up there. 

I have often thought about how cool it would be for Herman to be low-key developing something for Casey Thompson like Harsin's 2010 "Ash Package." Ideally, we'd run the package once or twice a game over the back portion of our season (say against WVU, TTU, or ISU)?  Roll out a simple package of plays that Thompson can execute and give him a chance to hurt the defense with his legs, then when they key in on him in the run game, give him passes he can execute.

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2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

 

In any event, I think Herman is more Urban than anybody, which is why Urban Meyer has done his level best to trash the dude, given that he's a threat in his mind that he doesn't enjoy facing if Herman gets the UT giant to its feet. I don't think he's going to trapdoor when he has roster spots available. Now, if Texas is a hot school on the transfer scene and he needs the space, sure. If there's a cancer not adding value, sure. But Saban has pushed guys out when he had room. I don't see it going in that direction, even if Saban has proven himself quite prescient when he's done that and then lo and behold some last second or mid-season highly rated transfer pops up, like the dude this year who originally signed with UW.

Poking around on other boards, the Buckeyes are terrified of Texas becoming a monster again. It makes sense with how heavily they have been recruiting Texas, but still odd to see them almost entirely rooting for a team that planted their flag at midfield in the Shoe last year. 

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3 minutes ago, golfclap said:

Hudson Henry official to Arkie. 

8th 4 star in the class for Aggy Chad. Pretty impressive given how awful they've looked on the field. Now on to Bush and maybe flip Wilkins?

Wish we could flip Wilkins/get him in for an OV.  He's taking an OV to Arky.

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1 hour ago, Katfid54 said:

I have often thought about how cool it would be for Herman to be low-key developing something for Casey Thompson like Harsin's 2010 "Ash Package." Ideally, we'd run the package once or twice a game over the back portion of our season (say against WVU, TTU, or ISU)?  Roll out a simple package of plays that Thompson can execute and give him a chance to hurt the defense with his legs, then when they key in on him in the run game, give him passes he can execute.

I don't think most people have thought enough about how the new redshirt rule could affect late season games. Elsewhere I posted that if Ojomo is actually giving the OL fits in practice on his pass rush then we should selectively use him against our good passing opponents instead of just waiting until the end of the season. Let's say we're holding everyone back just in case we make the Big 12 title game. A true freshman who has a specific skill that could be deployed should be used in spots against specific opponents, not all at the end of the year. If we have a guy who is a pass rushing specialist, he should play against West Virginia and Texas Tech instead of against Iowa State and Kansas. Play him against WVU and Tech and then sit him against ISU and KU.

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5 hours ago, closetojumping said:

Cook is past him. He had a moment in time where he was the next man up and that flew by before TCU. Green is past him too, if they wind up being forced to play a guy that far down on the depth chart in meaningful minutes. He had to talk about everything on social media because of the chatter in his personal network about future PT once Cook played ahead of him in the USC game.

I'm not saying you're incorrect in thinking he's all-in. Just offering further context. This kind of stuff has proven to not be black and white lately. Some guys that were going to play meaningful snaps bowed out, such as Bonney, while guys long rumored to be leaving have stuck around and been fine, like Nelson and the Duvernays. 

In any event, I think Herman is more Urban than anybody, which is why Urban Meyer has done his level best to trash the dude, given that he's a threat in his mind that he doesn't enjoy facing if Herman gets the UT giant to its feet. I don't think he's going to trapdoor when he has roster spots available. Now, if Texas is a hot school on the transfer scene and he needs the space, sure. If there's a cancer not adding value, sure. But Saban has pushed guys out when he had room. I don't see it going in that direction, even if Saban has proven himself quite prescient when he's done that and then lo and behold some last second or mid-season highly rated transfer pops up, like the dude this year who originally signed with UW.

I have it at 60 set to return with Grandy and Boyd subtracted, which puts us at 85 with a full class, and let's call it 87 with two extra takes in the 2019 class. Or even 88 if someone like John Burt redshirts this year. 

Without being specific to names or reasons, be it draft, health, playing time, etc, I have three guys who are almost certainly gone, five who I'd consider likely, three who are a coinflip to unlikely, and a handful more who'd make sense but who could easily just hang around without being pushed out 

On top of that, there are always a couple who leave the program randomly for various reasons, although perhaps these guys already come from the list above and I'm double dipping, and also if the roster is already somewhat diminished in size, perhaps the odds are lower that we'll have random attrition?

Regarding this class size, the ultimate governor should be the 2020 class size; a guy better be good enough to rob a spot from that class. It's easy to swallow (phrasing) 2020 being maxed out at 22 if our 2019 class adds Bru or Wilson late and pushes the class size to 28. 

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Just for giggles:

11 minutes ago, Fud said:

Without being specific to names or reasons, be it draft, health, playing time, etc, I have three guys who are almost certainly gone (Buechele, Porter, Carter), five who I'd consider likely (lot of options here:  Hudson, Boyce, Kirk Johnson, Urquidez, T. Houston, Cam Townsend, Christmas-Giles, J. Pouncey), three who are a coinflip to unlikely (I can think of a few more here than previously listed Do. Duvernay, Josh Thompson, Chris Brown, D. Okafor, M. Estell, Rob Cummins), and a handful more who'd make sense but who could easily just hang around without being pushed out  

 

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4 minutes ago, Katfid54 said:

Just for giggles:

 

I don't see Josh Thompson going anywhere. He can be frustrated he's lost reps to BJ Foster, but that guy is going to play a ton next year with Locke gone. He'll really play a ton next year if BJ Foster declares early for the draft. Thompson has gotten rave reviews since the new staff has been on campus, and I'm not talking about Kobe Boyce reviews. I'd be legit surprised if he bolted.

Rest of your list looks good though man. 

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Just now, texifornia said:

Josh Thompson? That'd shock me at least.

Okafor I think is just getting the disciplined redshirt year he always needed.

I hope you're right on both of those.  I just could see it happening, with the current CFB landscape where guys want to bail when they're not starting after two years.

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I don't think Thompson, Okafor, the Boyce are likely at all. Several guys on that list are hard workers who love the team, and if they left I'd put them in the "randos who left" than the "guys who would make sense to leave" group

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2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

He'll really play a ton next year if BJ Foster declares early for the draft.

I'm not following here. Foster will be a sophomore next season, so I'm not sure what BJ's draft prospects for the 2021 draft (at the earliest) have to do with Thompson's playing time in 2019.

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2 minutes ago, Machinator said:

I'm not following here. Foster will be a sophomore next season, so I'm not sure what BJ's draft prospects for the 2021 draft (at the earliest) have to do with Thompson's playing time in 2019.

You're not following because I'm a fucking idiot. I meant Brandon Jones and just got my wires crossed. The initials mixed me up. 

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1 minute ago, Fud said:

I don't think Thompson, Okafor, the Boyce are likely at all. Several guys on that list are hard workers who love the team, and if they left I'd put them in the "randos who left" than the "guys who would make sense to leave" group

MY LIST WAS "JUST FOR GIGGLES," FUD.  CAN'T YOU READ?!?

/caps

Also, some of the people I left were for medical retirement (Hudson, Kirk, and Cummins; maybe Estell?).  I just didn't delineate between the two, since your categories didn't, either.

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2 minutes ago, Machinator said:

Thompson would be our only ready-to-play option at nickel next season. Catalon would be a true freshman, but I think he's good enough at football that he could play early.

Well, I fully expect Jamison to step into the mix for that playing time at nickel as well. That guy isn't spending his career on offense. 

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4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Well, I fully expect Jamison to step into the mix for that playing time at nickel as well. That guy isn't spending his career on offense. 

I do too, but I don't know how much his stint on offense will set back his development at nickel.

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