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2021 Rain Thread


South Austin

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54 minutes ago, Updawg said:


That thing clogged or under something? I’ve dodged quite a few of these storms and have still got pretty good rain. Even left my rear window down in the car for a day. Got lucky on that one

Nope, all free and clear.  Did get a little shower this afternoon that added another .1".  So that's ,3" total for this thing since same time last week.

I guess I'm the anti-Eeyore or something! :)

 

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* This Dangerous Storm Will Be Near... Fulshear Around 915 PM CDT. Katy Around 925 PM CDT. Cinco Ranch Around 935 PM CDT. Eldridge / West Oaks, Addicks Park Ten And Spring Branch West Around 945 PM CDT. Other Locations Impacted By This Tornadic Thunderstorm Include Addicks And Memorial.
 

Take Cover Now! Move To A Basement Or An Interior Room On The Lowest Floor Of A Sturdy Building. Avoid Windows. If You Are Outdoors, In A Mobile Home, Or In A Vehicle, Move To The Closest Substantial Shelter And Protect Yourself From Flying Debris. Tornadoes Are Extremely Difficult To See And Confirm At Night. Do Not Wait To See Or Hear The Tornado. Take Cover Now! Torrential Rainfall Is Occurring With This Storm, And May Lead To Flash Flooding. Do Not Drive Your Vehicle Through Flooded Roadways.

 

Tornado Warning was issued on May 18 at 9:12PM CDT until May 18 at 9:45PM CDT by the National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston TX.

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* At 943 PM Cdt, A Severe Thunderstorm Capable Of Producing A Tornado Was Located Near Addicks Park Ten, Moving East At 30 MPH. Hazard... Tornado And Quarter Size Hail. Source... Radar Indicated Rotation. Impact... Flying Debris Will Be Dangerous To Those Caught Without Shelter. Mobile Homes Will Be Damaged Or Destroyed. Damage To Roofs, Windows, And Vehicles Will Occur. Tree Damage Is Likely. 

* Locations Impacted Include... Jersey Village, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney Point Village, Near Northside Houston, Aldine, Memorial Park, Northside / Northline, Spring Branch North, Eldridge / West Oaks, Fourth Ward, Greater Greenspoint, Spring Branch West, Greater Heights, Addicks Park Ten, Spring Valley, Afton Oaks / River Oaks Area, Neartown / Montrose, Downtown Houston And Midtown Houston.

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Sorry to see all the mess in Houston tonight, you guys take care.

Surprise surprise, MAJOR change in Austin weather. A coastal low has formed and it is drawing the worst weather and energy toward it, and away from Austin, for the rest of this week's event. Always the chance of a stray severe storm moving through Austin tomorrow but all the models have now shifted the worst of it to where it was today and even farther south and east.

We might get another inch over 3 days. Yeah we could maybe use a little more rain but dodged a bullet if you ask me.

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44 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Sorry to see all the mess in Houston tonight, you guys take care.

Surprise surprise, MAJOR change in Austin weather. A coastal low has formed and it is drawing the worst weather and energy toward it, and away from Austin, for the rest of this week's event. Always the chance of a stray severe storm moving through Austin tomorrow but all the models have now shifted the worst of it to where it was today and even farther south and east.

We might get another inch over 3 days. Yeah we could maybe use a little more rain but dodged a bullet if you ask me.

What's my outlook for Pflugerville on Thursday or Friday?  @smoothlonghorn, looking your direction.

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Had a ridiculous rolling thunder at about 4am that shook the house and woke everybody up. Lasted a good 20-30 seconds. Checked the radar, and there was nothing within 100 miles of me (though I could see lightning flashes in the window). 

What causes that? Sound reverb due to cloud cover and fog? Or was Godzilla emerging from the Guadalupe? 

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Update:
- Models moved everything east.  Low developed off of SE TX coast, and the big low is moving that way and will hang out for a few days as a cutoff.  ATX will be either just under its N/S axis or to its west.  If so, some rain but not a lot.  Anyone to the SE/E/NE of it will get a ton of rain and bad weather.
 

- Atmosphere is still pretty charged, and with the low throwing in even more copious amounts of warm moist air, the recipe is still very ripe for lots of rain and bad weather. What's saving us though is that there's nothing to trigger it.... but S and E of us, from just east of the 35 corridor to the coast and up into NE Texas, today could be another rain day.  Watch for heavy and severe storms to develop to our SE and move NE ward - generally away from us.  However certainly a complex could form a little more north and head at/over us.  So we're not out of the soup entirely.
 

- NWS might pull flash flood watch from our area and western counties, probably keep it SE of our immediate ones.

So forecast is today, cloudy, muggy, passing showers, always the chance of a severe storm ramping up, most probably diurnal (daytime heat-driven) along the usual suspects - late afternoon/early evening.  Then a break.  Tonight and most of tomorrow, little rain as this low is too far SE of us to do much.  Friday a low comes in from the west and provides another trigger for the big one by then SE of us.  Good chance of moderate-heavy rain for Fri-Sat, but at this point severe risk is low, and rain totals should still be managable (1-3 inches thru Sat).  Of course at any point a strong storm pouring tons of rain could drop over you (4-5 in.) but that's going to be very scattered and not as likely.  All starts to move out Sat. night, Sun and onward more sun, it'll be over.

So;  Today: good chance of an inch or two, very scattered severe; Thurs - drier but cloudy, spotty rain; Fri - rain picks up later in day, carries over into most of Saturday, then Sunday begins dryout as lows move off.

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I guess I should also say if you live in the area roughly bordered by Hearne, San Antonio, Corpus, and Lufkin, today could be another rough one.  Tons of rain and risk of these tropical type tornadoes (quick spin up then down).  Flooding likely (already occurring of course) in most of costal plain Texas... rivers in this area are likely to flood by the weekend, but probably not too much over their banks - well as of yet, anyway.  Good luck.

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26 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Update:
- Models moved everything east.  Low developed off of SE TX coast, and the big low is moving that way and will hang out for a few days as a cutoff.  ATX will be either just under its N/S axis or to its west.  If so, some rain but not a lot.  Anyone to the SE/E/NE of it will get a ton of rain and bad weather.

So the low off SE TX sucked the big un toward it?   

I understand suck pretty well.    Just not necessarily when it comes to meteorology. 

 

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So the low off SE TX sucked the big un toward it?   
I understand suck pretty well.    Just not necessarily when it comes to meteorology. 
 

You need something to provide lift to get rain and thunderstorms. With the low now off the Texas coast, there is no leading edge to provide lift to get storms going. That leading edge will be in South and SE Texas today as opposed to where it has been the last few days in West Texas.
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