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Posted (edited)

1/4 point today and MAYBE another 1/4 in December.  

IF I was in yall's business I would be calling folks hard this afternoon about getting in now.  As there is a real possibility of two bad things happening in the next 30 days that could derail lower rates going forward.  The main one is an upward trend in inflation.   Second, is perhaps perhaps the most real chance of a government shutdown we have had in a long while.  I would bring up both these factors to my clients, to hopefully create a sense of urgency.  

Looks like my prediction around this time last year of us getting lucky to see a 6.25% MMI last year by September seems spot on right now.  

Edited by horn4life
Posted
38 minutes ago, horn4life said:

1/4 point today and MAYBE another 1/4 in December.  

IF I was in yall's business I would be calling folks hard this afternoon about getting in now.  As there is a real possibility of two bad things happening in the next 30 days that could derail lower rates going forward.  The main one is an upward trend in inflation.   Second, is perhaps perhaps the most real chance of a government shutdown we have had in a long while.  I would bring up both these factors to my clients, to hopefully create a sense of urgency.  

Looks like my prediction around this time last year of us getting lucky to see a 6.25% MMI last year by September seems spot on right now.  

I'm sure there's several that have bit, and oodles more that can attest that I've been burning up the airwaves to get people's refinance in, especially with UWMs pricing incentive. If anyone I haven't worked with previously or is new wants to take a look at a quote you can DM me here or if easier just email me - pdubord@prodigymbo.com

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Posted
Quote

I certainly wouldn’t want to draw conclusions from a datapoint of 3. Rent prices can swing a lot even within a state, and if you’re just doing trends based on number of sales and price, the the bigger cities are going to skew averages that your every day landlord doesn’t see as reality. 
 

We bought our first 2 in 2018 and third in 2019. Our planned forth in 2021 but instead we live there now because we enjoyed the atmosphere (rural, woods, etc). We’ve taken some very dilapidated bordering on unlivable houses and done a lot of the repairs ourselves. I enjoy doing it, but it becomes a lot when you have an actual job and a family.  “I’m going to be done in 6 months” turns in to 2 years. 
 

We started as an alternative to trying to fund our retirement only by saving in stocks because neither of us wants to care / learn about the market. Goal was to have income producing houses in retirement. Taxes and insurance have gone nuts (and I’ve never had an insurance claim). We’re not profiting. My hope is that value  outpaces inflation plus our losses, but I’m terrified I’ll look back in 20 years and have a lot of regrets. 
 

We did STR (still doing one that way). I wouldn’t wish STR on my worst enemy. 

This is a quote from @UT_OB1 from the markets falling thread.  I wanted to move it over here to get feedback on his investments, since you guys know I am leaning towards talking all my inheritance (and likely writing a check) in my parents home.  A lot of similarities to my situation and the concerns of taxes and insurance wiping out rental income over time is a real concern. SO much of his situation seems similar to mine, except my big advantage would be a high stepped up value of the home at my Father's passing.

I also agree with my desire NOT to do STR and want on only do MTR (medium term rentals) of 30 days or more.  Because I don't want to deal with cleaning services, and constant move out inspections mainly.  I do not want to rent long term, because of my concerns about potential damage to the property.  A great deal of the reasoning for MTR is the property is on Septic.  And they spray emitter system by the lake while fine today, might not be up to code if something went wrong. That could be very, very bad, and very very expensive.

-----------------

Anyone here do Furnished MTR?  Seems like somebody who posts here primarily does that with their rentals, but I cannot remember or search and figure out who.  But I remember I this from maybe 5 years ago?  If this is in your personal wheelhouse please post or PM me.

 

Posted
2 hours ago, horn4life said:

This is a quote from @UT_OB1 from the markets falling thread.  I wanted to move it over here to get feedback on his investments, since you guys know I am leaning towards talking all my inheritance (and likely writing a check) in my parents home.  A lot of similarities to my situation and the concerns of taxes and insurance wiping out rental income over time is a real concern. SO much of his situation seems similar to mine, except my big advantage would be a high stepped up value of the home at my Father's passing.

I also agree with my desire NOT to do STR and want on only do MTR (medium term rentals) of 30 days or more.  Because I don't want to deal with cleaning services, and constant move out inspections mainly.  I do not want to rent long term, because of my concerns about potential damage to the property.  A great deal of the reasoning for MTR is the property is on Septic.  And they spray emitter system by the lake while fine today, might not be up to code if something went wrong. That could be very, very bad, and very very expensive.

-----------------

Anyone here do Furnished MTR?  Seems like somebody who posts here primarily does that with their rentals, but I cannot remember or search and figure out who.  But I remember I this from maybe 5 years ago?  If this is in your personal wheelhouse please post or PM me.

 

It's me.  I used to do exclusively travel nurses, but post-covid that industry has shrunk.  My current tenant is a Pendleton Marine that recently PCS'd from Japan and is winding down her contract. She'll be here for 4 months total.   Immediately before that, I had a civil engineer from the high desert that took a construction management contact in the next town over.  He stayed about 6 months.  Before that, it was a young guy that was serving a 6 month IBEW apprenticeship at a local company.   Current tenant is moving 11/3, and I've got a woman from here that relocated to FL, that has a home organizing and decorating business.  She wants a month here because her local clients want help decorating for the holidays. 

It's been great for us.  In the last 2 years, I've averaged about 4 weeks vacancy per year. 

 

 

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Posted

Back to scammers. We had a guy call up, said he is battling cancer, and needs to sell his waterfront home, here in Granbury. Well it is within walking distance of the square, built in 2023. We ran comps and were going to list it at $1.75mil. We had walked the outside of the house, and it is absolutely a killer place. This guy even goes as far as to sign a listing agreement, as the owner of the property using the real owners name. The owners live in Littleton, CO, we asked if there was a key hidden. The scammer said he needed to ask his wife, she said she couldn't remember, so he told us to just call a locksmith and have him change the locks. My broker (Mom) said that we wouldn't do that, that he needed to call a locksmith and give them his credit card number and authorize it himself.

Things got real quite suddenly. On a hunch, Mom found the wife's phone number online, and when she called the lady answered. The lady was blindsided, she said her husband is fine, and that they have no intention of selling. The Granbury PD is involved now, they have the guys number and real identity, he is in Houston, so I don't imagine anything will come of it.

So, beware of people that are wanting to sell their out of state vacation property, and are not willing to come meet you face to face. There have been other scammers trying to sell people's vacant lots around town as well. County records departments are going to have to come up with a game plan to keep this from happening. Maybe require the seller to go to the courthouse and verify ownership, and the sale before issuing a deed. At least on property that is not their primary residence.

CHIEF

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Posted
3 hours ago, horn4life said:

I also agree with my desire NOT to do STR and want on only do MTR (medium term rentals) of 30 days or more.  Because I don't want to deal with cleaning services, and constant move out inspections mainly.  I do not want to rent long term, because of my concerns about potential damage to the property. 

I had great luck renting to military personnel.   They did not get suddenly laid off, and as a general rule they kept things clean.  And the one renter who would not pay on time had a visit with the base commander - who I had recently spoken with.

That was the last time I was paid late.  If they would have caused damage, I also always knew how to find them. 

  • Like 1
Posted
5 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

I had great luck renting to military personnel.   They did not get suddenly laid off, and as a general rule they kept things clean.  And the one renter who would not pay on time had a visit with the base commander - who I had recently spoken with.

That was the last time I was paid late.  If they would have caused damage, I also always knew how to find them. 

If you're close enough to a base, it can be great.   Particularly out here, where the BAH is really high.  E-5's get about 3000 bucks out here.

  • Like 1
Posted

 

1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

I had great luck renting to military personnel.   They did not get suddenly laid off, and as a general rule they kept things clean.  And the one renter who would not pay on time had a visit with the base commander - who I had recently spoken with.

That was the last time I was paid late.  If they would have caused damage, I also always knew how to find them. 

Yeah that was something I learned from a guy that rented furniture in Killeen, that was a friend of my BIL.  I could have inherited a house in Perdido Key, Fla years ago, but it was way too far away from Austin to consider keeping and managing.  My cousin lives in it today.

1 hour ago, Gil Bang said:

If you're close enough to a base, it can be great.   Particularly out here, where the BAH is really high.  E-5's get about 3000 bucks out here.

I am going to need an officer in all likelihood.  As I want to get about $3500 a month as it's a 4 bed 2.5 bath house with a view.  

 

THANKS to both of you for bringing up the military.  

 

The fact that Fort Hood borders half of Lake Belton means only nature by the lake.  With the exception of the big water intake where you sometimes see then guys practice repelling. 

Here is a decent pic of the view.  It's too steep for water access. I need to do a panorama. But I like the undeveloped aspects of the lake.

beltonview.thumb.jpg.ac35d06852fb4178ade5f33c054ceab6.jpg

 

Posted

18 bips worse for the day. We were up 25 immediately upon the cut. I texted my ops manager- we will swing negative 30 after Powell gets done speaking and that’s where we are right now. 
market wanted to hear reinvestment in mortgage backed and didn’t hear any of that. 
Big old nothingburger today as was my thought. 
I locked 13 people yesterday. Was not scared. My bet is we oscillate somewhere between 6 and 6.5 for the rest of the calendar year. Next year the range is 6.75-5.25 imo.  
of we hit 6.0 then for the year the range will be 6.0-7.2 I think. There’s usually a 1-1.5 point gap from high to low in a given year. 

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Posted
56 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

18 bips worse for the day. We were up 25 immediately upon the cut. I texted my ops manager- we will swing negative 30 after Powell gets done speaking and that’s where we are right now. 
market wanted to hear reinvestment in mortgage backed and didn’t hear any of that. 
Big old nothingburger today as was my thought. 
I locked 13 people yesterday. Was not scared. My bet is we oscillate somewhere between 6 and 6.5 for the rest of the calendar year. Next year the range is 6.75-5.25 imo.  
of we hit 6.0 then for the year the range will be 6.0-7.2 I think. There’s usually a 1-1.5 point gap from high to low in a given year. 

Good call!

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Posted
3 hours ago, CHIEF said:

So, beware of people that are wanting to sell their out of state vacation property, and are not willing to come meet you face to face. There have been other scammers trying to sell people's vacant lots around town as well. County records departments are going to have to come up with a game plan to keep this from happening. Maybe require the seller to go to the courthouse and verify ownership, and the sale before issuing a deed. At least on property that is not their primary residence.

CHIEF

What was their plan?.  If you would have listed it, the buyer would have required title insurance.  Doesn't the seller need to show up in person with ID etc. at title co at closing to sign over the deed?

Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, CHIEF said:

Back to scammers. We had a guy call up, said he is battling cancer, and needs to sell his waterfront home, here in Granbury. Well it is within walking distance of the square, built in 2023. We ran comps and were going to list it at $1.75mil. We had walked the outside of the house, and it is absolutely a killer place. This guy even goes as far as to sign a listing agreement, as the owner of the property using the real owners name. The owners live in Littleton, CO, we asked if there was a key hidden. The scammer said he needed to ask his wife, she said she couldn't remember, so he told us to just call a locksmith and have him change the locks. My broker (Mom) said that we wouldn't do that, that he needed to call a locksmith and give them his credit card number and authorize it himself.

Things got real quite suddenly. On a hunch, Mom found the wife's phone number online, and when she called the lady answered. The lady was blindsided, she said her husband is fine, and that they have no intention of selling. The Granbury PD is involved now, they have the guys number and real identity, he is in Houston, so I don't imagine anything will come of it.

So, beware of people that are wanting to sell their out of state vacation property, and are not willing to come meet you face to face. There have been other scammers trying to sell people's vacant lots around town as well. County records departments are going to have to come up with a game plan to keep this from happening. Maybe require the seller to go to the courthouse and verify ownership, and the sale before issuing a deed. At least on property that is not their primary residence.

CHIEF

out here, our county recorders are trying their best to prevent this bullshit.  I just got the thing below from my title rep.  seems like being notified after the deed is recorded is too late.  Maybe in the future, we'll record a Lis Pendens when we take a listing?

At least the owner will be notified before the property is sold.  But, a diligent  and alert agent (such as your office) can nip a lot of shit shit in the bud. 

As to verifying the ownership, we already do that (my office at least) as a matter of policy. Every listing package has the tax roll lookup included. That doesn't stop identity theft, of course

 

Owner Alert is a free rapid notification service - key to stopping real estate fraud!

•    The San Diego County recorder has partnered with the San Diego County District Attorney’s Office to fight real estate fraud.
•    OWNER ALERT is a great step forward to protecting San Diego County property owners like you from title fraud and unwarranted liens.
•    OWNER ALERT is a free service provided by your Assessor/Recorder/County Clerk office that uses cutting-edge technology with 24/7 monitoring to help protect your home and property title from fraudulent theft.

OWNER ALERT is available to alert subscribers when a document is recorded into the County of San Diego Official Records. If subscribed to OWNER ALERT, you will receive automated email alerts when a document is recorded containing the indexed name and/or Assessor’s Parcel Number (APN) registered. This would include liens recorded and placed on your personal, business, and trust names that you register.

You can register up to 5 different names and/or 5 APNs per registered email address. There is no charge for this service, and you may unsubscribe at any time. Please keep in mind, this service only applies to documents recorded after your subscriber registration has been activated. Not all APNs and names are entered in the Official Records Index. If you suspect you are a victim of fraud, contact the District Attorney’s Office - Real Estate Fraud.

 

 

Edited by Gil Bang
Posted

If you have an interest rate of 6.5 or worse we can probably help you with something cool that will stick a decent amount of cash directly in your pocket at no cost to you- depending upon deal specifics and the like of course. Hit me up in DM if you want to hear the pitch. 
 

Posted
3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

My bet is we oscillate somewhere between 6 and 6.5 for the rest of the calendar year. Next year the range is 6.75-5.25 imo.  

I will take next year‘s bet.  Tree fiddy?

Posted
5 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

I will take next year‘s bet.  Tree fiddy?

5.25 might be a tad aggressive as a low point. Let’s see how the year ends. If the 6-6.5 oscillation happens then yeah. 

Posted
3 hours ago, Skipper said:

What was their plan?.  If you would have listed it, the buyer would have required title insurance.  Doesn't the seller need to show up in person with ID etc. at title co at closing to sign over the deed?

I assume the plan would be pretty elaborate, remote closing with a shady title company that is in on it. I still haven't figured out how the scammer would get through the notary verification. Maybe get a bogus ID with the real owners name at the local flea market. That flea market going out 290 towards Manor use to sell fake IDs by the thousands.

CHIEF

Posted (edited)
22 hours ago, horn4life said:

This is a quote from @UT_OB1 from the markets falling thread.  I wanted to move it over here to get feedback on his investments, since you guys know I am leaning towards talking all my inheritance (and likely writing a check) in my parents home.  A lot of similarities to my situation and the concerns of taxes and insurance wiping out rental income over time is a real concern. SO much of his situation seems similar to mine, except my big advantage would be a high stepped up value of the home at my Father's passing.

I also agree with my desire NOT to do STR and want on only do MTR (medium term rentals) of 30 days or more.  Because I don't want to deal with cleaning services, and constant move out inspections mainly.  I do not want to rent long term, because of my concerns about potential damage to the property.  A great deal of the reasoning for MTR is the property is on Septic.  And they spray emitter system by the lake while fine today, might not be up to code if something went wrong. That could be very, very bad, and very very expensive.

-----------------

Anyone here do Furnished MTR?  Seems like somebody who posts here primarily does that with their rentals, but I cannot remember or search and figure out who.  But I remember I this from maybe 5 years ago?  If this is in your personal wheelhouse please post or PM me.

 

We had over 15 STRs in Austin during the go-go days and preferred 30 days plus, the problem even when you have an absolute no policy on STR is that the market is flooded with STRs and everyone - including them - wants the 30 days plus customers. There were no barriers to entry so the market gyrated every direction. Now with the lock down on STRs pretty much everywhere, the 30 days plus rentals is all that’s left. I can’t see how that’s good for business. With Airbnb it’s just too easy to get into it. With corporate ownership it’s too easy to get crushed.  Heavy asset and tax cost plus no barriers to entry and big companies are your competitors?  I’m sure you can make a few bucks and ride some appreciation but it’s not a passive income stream it’s an active business. To me it’s a recipe for a massive headache with marginal returns, if not a complete waste of time.

Edited by scramblyn
Posted
22 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

If you have an interest rate of 6.5 or worse we can probably help you with something cool that will stick a decent amount of cash directly in your pocket at no cost to you- depending upon deal specifics and the like of course. Hit me up in DM if you want to hear the pitch. 
 

Sounds like a scam. Headed to your DMs now 

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