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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, horn4life said:

With prices in that range the elementary school won't be there long anyhow.

Indeed. Ultimately lost home affordability is the problem that’s destroying AISD, along with everything else good about Austin. 
 

 

1 hour ago, horn4life said:

So... what do you guys think the final sale price will be? 

$3.50

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
Posted
41 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Indeed. Ultimately lost home affordability is the problem that’s destroying AISD, along with everything else good about Austin. 

Funny thing is I came realy close to buying a house up behind Zilker back in 1999... 

Austin unfortunately is like any other cool place, not so cool people want to feel cool, and are willing to pay.  The wife and I nearly exclusively eat at local or locally created places here in town, and going to SoCo is how we still "feel" like we are part of Austin. Trying to keep the folks that actually made it cool in business.  Continental club and C-boys get a lot of our entertainment money, even though we are at like Oak Knoll and 183, because the music played there is still Austin at it's best. 

If they will sell me that place for list price, I promise I will support all the local businesses near my new Zilker house....  might even let the yard go to shit in honor of South Austin...

 

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Posted
On 11/4/2025 at 9:59 AM, Bozo_Casanova said:

Indeed. Ultimately lost home affordability is the problem that’s destroying AISD, along with everything else good about Austin. 

I had a good conversation with one of the leaders in the Austin Infill Coalition about this and there's plenty of interest on their side for building more affordable housing as long as they aren't sacrificing profit (and given this house in 78704, I think there's a good case to be made that higher value infill development is pretty risky at the moment).  

That said, I'm not sure how you put the genie back in the bottle otherwise.  There's good scholarship that suggest home values are more a product of income and asset inflation than tight supply.  

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I had a good conversation with one of the leaders in the Austin Infill Coalition about this and there's plenty of interest on their side for building more affordable housing as long as they aren't sacrificing profit (and given this house in 78704, I think there's a good case to be made that higher value infill development is pretty risky at the moment). 

I guess. Frankly I’ve can’t think of a supply imbalance in history that has ever corrected without meeting the top of the market first. The Austin MSA is correcting in large part because of all the “luxury condos” that came on the market around the same time rates went up. My point is that we don’t need to pay developers to take risks, but to simply allow them to meet the market. 
 

8 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

That said, I'm not sure how you put the genie back in the bottle otherwise.  There's good scholarship that suggest home values are more a product of income and asset inflation than tight supply.  

Indeed two of the three important drivers of affordability erosion are income inequality and two decades of essentially free credit combined with federal tax stimulus for top earners. But, we can’t address that at the municipal level. We can only address the third major contributor, which is restrictions on housing construction in centralish Austin. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Posted
On 11/3/2025 at 9:24 AM, Catpfish said:

Just got the email blast from the agent.  The address is 2502 Barhill Dr.  The email is titled $2.6 million price drop and that best and final process in effect.

And just got another email blast that they are holding an open house on Saturday, so it looks like the multiple bid process (if it even happens) is taking longer than they thought

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Posted (edited)

With Robinhood having margin rates at 4.75% for 100k-1million dollar amounts, which is where I'd assume 90% of mortgage amounts to be in, is there any easy to explain math to determine if paying off through margin makes sense if risk of being margin called is low?  is it just comparing the interest charges against each other?

 

Edited by StassneyHorn
Posted
1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

50 year mortgages sound like a terrible idea. I know 40 have been around but can't say I've ever done or or I think anyone in our company either. 

 

japan is the case study on 50 year loans 

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Posted
On 11/7/2025 at 11:51 AM, Catpfish said:

And just got another email blast that they are holding an open house on Saturday, so it looks like the multiple bid process (if it even happens) is taking longer than they thought

You wonder what level of desperation the owners actually have? Making this big a downward move during a period of obvious traditional weak pricing. 

19 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

50 year mortgages sound like a terrible idea. I know 40 have been around but can't say I've ever done or or I think anyone in our company either. 

But the low, low,l ow no money down payments.... (forever). Sure would suck to miss a couple payments in the 49th year...

18 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

japan is the case study on 50 year loans 

When you start needing 50 year loans, you also can't afford kids.  Which in helps opens a completely different can of economic worms.

Posted

Was talking to a pollster yesterday about this that has a line of discussion open to the admin. He’s not like an advisor, but they also listen to him if that makes sense…

Told him that the 50 was a bad idea and dumb and not particularly necessary. Basically my pitch was that we’d be a lot better off with 35 and under 1st time home buyers getting underwritten like a VA loan with 100% down, no MI and flexible dti guildelines. We chatted about that a little bit and he was in agreement (vet- so he understands VA loans) and said he’d pass that along the line to an appropriate person. Do I expect anything to come of that?  No. But at least I had a minor say in sending an idea up the food chain.  To be closer this was an actual conversation with him- this isn’t the comments section on a poll I was taking or something. 
I know they are listening to Ishbia and Habib and other guys I’ve had the opportunity to talk to at top producer summits and the like. They are getting people involved that know and care about housing, but this 50 year mortgage thing isn’t a thing that needs to happen or likely helps what they are trying to get to, in an attempt to move the needle on Millennial and zoomer homeownership. 

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Posted
On 11/5/2025 at 4:19 PM, LCHorn said:

I had a good conversation with one of the leaders in the Austin Infill Coalition about this and there's plenty of interest on their side for building more affordable housing as long as they aren't sacrificing profit (and given this house in 78704, I think there's a good case to be made that higher value infill development is pretty risky at the moment).  

That said, I'm not sure how you put the genie back in the bottle otherwise.  There's good scholarship that suggest home values are more a product of income and asset inflation than tight supply.  

I know folks in AIC, they are white knuckled right now. they will say yes to anything if it means a deal, but in reality they don't really care about affordability unless you're talking about buyer's being able to afford the prices the infill zip codes require. the lucky ones are on the sidelines, the ones that have to make a living building are getting their asses handed to them. some are successful still, others success is measured by shrinking down and surviving. that may sound like a cynical view or a critique of them, it's not. they have no ability to move the market and they are at the mercy of the worst real estate down turn in austin since 1986-1987.

problems like housing affordability have so many negative inputs, that it will take dozens of positive inputs to make a dent.

Posted
21 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

I know folks in AIC, they are white knuckled right now. they will say yes to anything if it means a deal, but in reality they don't really care about affordability unless you're talking about buyer's being able to afford the prices the infill zip codes require.

To be clear, I tend to favor organizing the marketplace (to the extent that’s possible) with profit seeking firms and providing them incentives to act in ways that fulfills community goals.  I’m happy with whatever mechanism gets us more pricing diversity in housing stock while supporting an expanding tax base to fund shared services.  If they get to make a lot of money in supporting that vision then it’s win-win.  
 

Also, on a somewhat lesser note, most of these guys are building high dollar houses but they are also small, independent businesses and there’s probably some economic merit to the money recycling into the local economy than being used to prop up DR Horton’s shareholders.  

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

To be clear, I tend to favor organizing the marketplace (to the extent that’s possible) with profit seeking firms and providing them incentives to act in ways that fulfills community goals.  I’m happy with whatever mechanism gets us more pricing diversity in housing stock while supporting an expanding tax base to fund shared services.  If they get to make a lot of money in supporting that vision then it’s win-win.  
 

Also, on a somewhat lesser note, most of these guys are building high dollar houses but they are also small, independent businesses and there’s probably some economic merit to the money recycling into the local economy than being used to prop up DR Horton’s shareholders.  

I agree with you. and yes, AIC is a bunch of solo guys (and a couple of gals) that once upon a time learned how to build houses and now build $1.5M+ homes with some exceeding $3M. some of which are stunningly beautiful. others of which are grotesque (looking at you joseph bros (who are not in AIC i don't think)).

Edited by scramblyn
Posted
50 year mortgages sound like a terrible idea. I know 40 have been around but can't say I've ever done or or I think anyone in our company either. 

Curious. Let's say you did a $700k fixed rate loan of 4.5%. With the whacked amortization schedules of home loans, how much principle would you have paid off after 20 years?
Posted
Just now, Sbbruin said:


Curious. Let's say you did a $700k fixed rate loan of 4.5%. With the whacked amortization schedules of home loans, how much principle would you have paid off after 20 years?

$1 Bob! <fist pump, air high five, point to crowd>

Posted
24 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:


Curious. Let's say you did a $700k fixed rate loan of 4.5%. With the whacked amortization schedules of home loans, how much principle would you have paid off after 20 years?

https://www.calculator.net/amortization-calculator.html

you can put any term and rate you want in this.

 

40 year has paid 200K principal after 20 years given above rate

50 year 120K

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Incredulity said:

https://www.calculator.net/amortization-calculator.html

you can put any term and rate you want in this.

 

40 year has paid 200K principal after 20 years given above rate

50 year 120K

I remember refi-ing to my now 15 year from my previous 30 year (which I had re-fid a couple of times with a small cash out once), but my wife was flabbergasted as to how little we had paid off over the first about 15 years.  I was like “welcome to home financing “

now I pay like 80% principle with every payment.

Edited by Sbbruin
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Posted
8 hours ago, Sbbruin said:


Curious. Let's say you did a $700k fixed rate loan of 4.5%. With the whacked amortization schedules of home loans, how much principle would you have paid off after 20 years?

It's gotta be $350...

Posted

Thoughts from the mortgage bros on portable mortgages?  I assume the rate would only apply to the balance you currently have on your existing mortgage, of course.  But what other unintended consequences might arise?

Posted
2 hours ago, Sbbruin said:

Thoughts from the mortgage bros on portable mortgages?  I assume the rate would only apply to the balance you currently have on your existing mortgage, of course.  But what other unintended consequences might arise?

My presumption is there would be very little demand because they would have an upfront sticker price a good bit higher than a non-portable mortgage due to risk for investors on the secondary market.  

Posted

Huh interesting, Fannie Mae seems to be selectively leaking information to illegally collude with competition and move the mortgage rate. Love picking winners and losers

https://apnews.com/article/fannie-mae-freddie-mac-firing-pulte-data-a4f8c53df74fef83ec7fd07e3d524746

WASHINGTON (AP) — A confidant of Bill Pulte, the Trump administration’s top housing regulator, provided confidential mortgage pricing data from Fannie Mae to a principal competitor, alarming senior officials of the government-backed lending giant who warned it could expose the company to claims that it was colluding with a rival to fix mortgage rates.

Emails reviewed by The Associated Press show that Fannie Mae executives were unnerved about what one called the “very problematic” disclosure of data by Lauren Smith, the company’s head of marketing, who was acting on Pulte’s behalf.

“Lauren, the information that was provided to Freddie Mac in this email is a problem,” Malloy Evans, senior vice president of Fannie Mae’s single-family mortgage division, wrote in an Oct. 11 email. “That is confidential, competitive information.”

He also copied Fannie Mae’s CEO, Priscilla Almodovar, on the email, which bore the subject line: “As Per Director Pulte’s Ask.” Evans asked Fannie Mae’s top attorney “to weigh in on what, if any, steps we need to take legally to protect ourselves now.”

While Smith still holds her position, the senior Fannie Mae officials who called her conduct into question were all forced out of their jobs late last month, along with internal ethics watchdogs who were investigating Pulte and his allies.

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Posted
On 11/10/2025 at 6:06 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

Was talking to a pollster yesterday about this that has a line of discussion open to the admin. He’s not like an advisor, but they also listen to him if that makes sense…

Told him that the 50 was a bad idea and dumb and not particularly necessary. Basically my pitch was that we’d be a lot better off with 35 and under 1st time home buyers getting underwritten like a VA loan with 100% down, no MI and flexible dti guildelines. We chatted about that a little bit and he was in agreement (vet- so he understands VA loans) and said he’d pass that along the line to an appropriate person. Do I expect anything to come of that?  No. But at least I had a minor say in sending an idea up the food chain.  To be closer this was an actual conversation with him- this isn’t the comments section on a poll I was taking or something. 
I know they are listening to Ishbia and Habib and other guys I’ve had the opportunity to talk to at top producer summits and the like. They are getting people involved that know and care about housing, but this 50 year mortgage thing isn’t a thing that needs to happen or likely helps what they are trying to get to, in an attempt to move the needle on Millennial and zoomer homeownership. 

Bill Pulte is the stupidest motherfucker in an administration full of idiots.  There is ZERO reason for optimism until somebody that knows shit about fuck is running shit. 

We'd be better off with Tommy fucking Tuberville in that job. 

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Posted

Good news for home buyers incoming next year.  Rates headed down, and right now prices are dropping pretty quickly on developed lots which is going to translate to finished homes as well.  This is the worst new home market in at least five years in central Texas.  I haven’t seen price reductions like this in quite some time.  

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Posted
On 11/14/2025 at 6:44 PM, Gil Bang said:

Bill Pulte is the stupidest motherfucker in an administration full of idiots.  There is ZERO reason for optimism until somebody that knows shit about fuck is running shit. 

We'd be better off with Tommy fucking Tuberville in that job. 

There is literally nobody that you’d be happy with in this administration your politics make it impossible.  He’s got smart people like Barry Habib working on LLPA’s that the Biden admin fucked up to all shit by trying to make it a giveaway to shitty credit score borrowers who don’t buy conventional anyway while making it more expensive for people that have virtual no risk associated with their loans, and you have guys like Ishbia who only runs the largest and most successful lender in the world clearly on this speed dial and singing his praises and saying they are being super proactive and doing good stuff. I only look at this shit every day. But sure- I’d rather hear you opinion on it bc it’s designed to absolutely not be politically slanted to absurdity. 
I know rates are down some and they are doing some smart stuff tomorrow the spreads back to historical norms that got way out of whack over the last couple years. 
I bet 2026 is a banger. I’m planning on that being the case for me anyway. I’m up 20% in units and 25% in volume and finishing up a record year. It’s not the easiest market we’ve ever had or anything but it’s a damn not better than 23 and 24 were. Or even most of 2022 when it got ugly in a hurry. 

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Posted
15 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

There is literally nobody that you’d be happy with in this administration your politics make it impossible.  He’s got smart people like Barry Habib working on LLPA’s that the Biden admin fucked up to all shit by trying to make it a giveaway to shitty credit score borrowers who don’t buy conventional anyway while making it more expensive for people that have virtual no risk associated with their loans, and you have guys like Ishbia who only runs the largest and most successful lender in the world clearly on this speed dial and singing his praises and saying they are being super proactive and doing good stuff. I only look at this shit every day. But sure- I’d rather hear you opinion on it bc it’s designed to absolutely not be politically slanted to absurdity. 
I know rates are down some and they are doing some smart stuff tomorrow the spreads back to historical norms that got way out of whack over the last couple years. 
I bet 2026 is a banger. I’m planning on that being the case for me anyway. I’m up 20% in units and 25% in volume and finishing up a record year. It’s not the easiest market we’ve ever had or anything but it’s a damn not better than 23 and 24 were. Or even most of 2022 when it got ugly in a hurry. 

It's not politics to observe that Bill Pulte is unethical as shit.

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

There is literally nobody that you’d be happy with in this administration your politics make it impossible.  He’s got smart people like Barry Habib working on LLPA’s that the Biden admin fucked up to all shit by trying to make it a giveaway to shitty credit score borrowers who don’t buy conventional anyway while making it more expensive for people that have virtual no risk associated with their loans, and you have guys like Ishbia who only runs the largest and most successful lender in the world clearly on this speed dial and singing his praises and saying they are being super proactive and doing good stuff. I only look at this shit every day. But sure- I’d rather hear you opinion on it bc it’s designed to absolutely not be politically slanted to absurdity. 
I know rates are down some and they are doing some smart stuff tomorrow the spreads back to historical norms that got way out of whack over the last couple years. 
I bet 2026 is a banger. I’m planning on that being the case for me anyway. I’m up 20% in units and 25% in volume and finishing up a record year. It’s not the easiest market we’ve ever had or anything but it’s a damn not better than 23 and 24 were. Or even most of 2022 when it got ugly in a hurry. 

You can fuck right off.  Your politics infect your posts a hell of a lot more then my politics infect mine. 

I've been posting on these boards since austin 360.  Go find a post where I criticized previous GOP administrations for their housing policies.  The Trump administration is full of dumbfucks from top to bottom, and Pulte is exhibit "A".  That's a fucking fact.  He's a complete moron and a corrupt POS.  He'll be kicked to the fucking curb sooner rather than later. 

 

Edit:  And to add, your boy Habib is the mortgage version of Dr. Oz.  Just another quasi-celebrity that's famous for being famous, and that's good enough for this administration...which is headed by a "reality" TV star.  I fully expect "Snooki" from Jersey Shore to have a say in coastal policy sometime soon. 

Edited by Gil Bang
Posted
2 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

Good news for home buyers incoming next year.  Rates headed down, and right now prices are dropping pretty quickly on developed lots which is going to translate to finished homes as well.  This is the worst new home market in at least five years in central Texas.  I haven’t seen price reductions like this in quite some time.  

Lot prices are irrelevant if labor and material prices are through the roof.  

Posted
1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

It's not politics to observe that Bill Pulte is unethical as shit.

He said stupidist motherfucker not unethical as shit.  There’s a huge difference between the two and I wouldn’t have responded to unethical. 

I go to private events with top level analysts that have political connections across every admin. I worked lobbying during 23 and 24 for a damn good bill for consumers and talked to people in both parties about housing issues. I’ve heard 4 different people from different organizations (2 lender political analysts, 1 vendor and 1 lobbyist) be very happy with where housing is going. Is Pulte 100% responsible driving that bus?  No. I’m sure not. Was anyone anything but happy about the direction of where they are going this year?  Absolutely not. 
 

Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, bluto said:

He’s just pissy over how shitty his 9-3 = cfp claim was

We don’t even know that yet. First- Texas has to make 9-3 (that was always a hypothetical) 2nd, that was predicated upon close game with Georgia. 3rd- it’s still on the table. 4th- said likely not certain. The week after I wrote that the predictors had us 75% in with 9-3. I said 64 or 70. It wasn’t wrong as the hypothetical though exercise it was meant to be. 
the reaction I had after game 1 was very very very very very wrong. That’s worthy of all the mockery and ridicule. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
Posted
On 11/14/2025 at 6:55 AM, Captainant said:

Huh interesting, Fannie Mae seems to be selectively leaking information to illegally collude with competition and move the mortgage rate. Love picking winners and losers

https://apnews.com/article/fannie-mae-freddie-mac-firing-pulte-data-a4f8c53df74fef83ec7fd07e3d524746

WASHINGTON (AP) — A confidant of Bill Pulte, the Trump administration’s top housing regulator, provided confidential mortgage pricing data from Fannie Mae to a principal competitor, alarming senior officials of the government-backed lending giant who warned it could expose the company to claims that it was colluding with a rival to fix mortgage rates.

Emails reviewed by The Associated Press show that Fannie Mae executives were unnerved about what one called the “very problematic” disclosure of data by Lauren Smith, the company’s head of marketing, who was acting on Pulte’s behalf.

“Lauren, the information that was provided to Freddie Mac in this email is a problem,” Malloy Evans, senior vice president of Fannie Mae’s single-family mortgage division, wrote in an Oct. 11 email. “That is confidential, competitive information.”

He also copied Fannie Mae’s CEO, Priscilla Almodovar, on the email, which bore the subject line: “As Per Director Pulte’s Ask.” Evans asked Fannie Mae’s top attorney “to weigh in on what, if any, steps we need to take legally to protect ourselves now.”

While Smith still holds her position, the senior Fannie Mae officials who called her conduct into question were all forced out of their jobs late last month, along with internal ethics watchdogs who were investigating Pulte and his allies.

Are you of the opinion that Fannie and Freddy are Coke and Pepsi? Do you realize that the pricing spread between the 2 is like 3 or 4 bips and has been that way for decades at a time? And it takes about 50 bips (more or less) to move pricing 1/8 of a point to the end consumer of the mortgage? That spread differential if it loosed a little or tightened a little would be worth less than $1.00 a month to the consumer. 
 

Posted (edited)
On 11/14/2025 at 6:44 PM, Gil Bang said:

Bill Pulte is the stupidest motherfucker in an administration full of idiots.  There is ZERO reason for optimism until somebody that knows shit about fuck is running shit. 

We'd be better off with Tommy fucking Tuberville in that job. 

 

8 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

It's not politics to observe that Bill Pulte is unethical as shit.

 

6 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Are you of the opinion that Fannie and Freddy are Coke and Pepsi? Do you realize that the pricing spread between the 2 is like 3 or 4 bips and has been that way for decades at a time? And it takes about 50 bips (more or less) to move pricing 1/8 of a point to the end consumer of the mortgage? That spread differential if it loosed a little or tightened a little would be worth less than $1.00 a month to the consumer. 
 

All these statements are true.  Which one is mostly a rationalization?  In Pulte's defense, his father did build an impressive business.

But ultimately as I said accurately ovrr a year ago, tariffs will raise prices and hurt employment.  Which will make bringing down rates to the levels predicted by those who originate mortgages, likely nearly impossible.  My prediction was that we would be lucky to sniff 6.25% on the MMI, the third quarter of 2026.  I did say that if we destroy the job market, then rate cuts will necessary.

In other words it's not Pulte's fault, despite his lack of ethics..  

The strange thing is you would think the THe fed would be more likely to cut with bad jobs numbers, yes? administration would want to crank out the October jobs numbers, as with all the layoffs from large companies in that month, you might have some more ammo for a rate cut?  Instead (IMHO) the administration wants to avoid the bad number, for politics.  Could they produce the number? Certainly. But confirmation of October Jobs declining might be bad politically?  Or do would you contend the opposite? That October would show such robust job growth that it would hamsting the fed from cuts?  one is a much more likely scenario.

Edited by horn4life
Posted
18 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I bet 2026 is a banger. I’m planning on that being the case for me anyway. I’m up 20% in units and 25% in volume and finishing up a record year. It’s not the easiest market we’ve ever had or anything but it’s a damn not better than 23 and 24 were. Or even most of 2022 when it got ugly in a hurry. 

sounds like you have "zero concerns going forward."

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