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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?


Reagan1k

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27 minutes ago, Captainant said:

We didn't get into this debt in an instant, and arguing that any solution must immediately resolve it is not a serious one. There has to be a balanced approach, not just starving the beast so your buttcoins will be worth more

Buttcoins would stop going up if this was addressed. I see it as highly unlikely in part because of responses like yours. I say sure let’s raise tax revenue to historical highs, what about spending? You say hey hey hey let’s do a balanced approach, while avoiding the question. 

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3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I mean, we know wage growth is outpacing price growth, so what exactly is your point, GRUHorn?

Thank god, finally. 
 

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

The fucking workers over is tough to pin 100% on Biden unless you've got an agenda to push. But then again when haven't you had an agenda, GRU?

I agree but I missed where he was trying to pin it on Biden? The issue is that a majority of Americans live paycheck to paycheck so they may vote for “change” simply because they’re struggling. 

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The majority of Americans have lived paycheck to paycheck for decades.  It's probably a bit worse now, but I suspect it's also a big driver in the R->D->R->D swings we see over time.  Push back against the incumbent, because "it's the economy, stupid".

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1 hour ago, Captainant said:

We didn't get into this debt in an instant, and arguing that any solution must immediately resolve it is not a serious one. There has to be a balanced approach, not just starving the beast so your buttcoins will be worth more

At this point, getting to (or mathematically close enough to) a balanced annual budget IS a balanced approach. There’s never a politically good time to do it — it just HAS to happen to protect the dollar

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5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

The majority of Americans have lived paycheck to paycheck for decades.  It's probably a bit worse now, but I suspect it's also a big driver in the R->D->R->D swings we see over time.  Push back against the incumbent, because "it's the economy, stupid".

Yes exactly, and that shitty situation was mostly stable when inflation was very low. The relatively high inflation of the past few years hit the people that can’t see past their next paycheck the hardest. 

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6 minutes ago, bernorange said:

“ALICE is the nation’s child-care workers, home health aides and cashiers heralded during the pandemic — those working low-wage jobs, with little or no savings and one emergency from poverty,” said Stephanie Hoopes, national director at United for ALICE.

 

This can't be though, there are so many charts with a line going up!

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Well, dinner out has gotten ridiculous.  Just spent $14 on a side of guacamole at an independent upper mid-tier mexican restaurant.  Had to be at most 1.5 avocados with seasoning, chopped onion and diced tomatoes.  Is there an avocado shortage?

Total bill is easily 60% higher.  Ridiculous. 

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3 hours ago, Captainant said:

“ALICE is the nation’s child-care workers, home health aides and cashiers heralded during the pandemic — those working low-wage jobs, with little or no savings and one emergency from poverty,” said Stephanie Hoopes, national director at United for ALICE.

 

This can't be though, there are so many charts with a line going up!

Well they should’ve gone into a lucrative industry, like selling avocados.

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14 hours ago, B00M said:

The issue is that a majority of Americans live paycheck to paycheck so they may vote for “change” simply because they’re struggling. 

This is a totally made up stat.

It's supposed to mean "If I miss a single paycheck, I'm screwed. Not gonna make rent, car gonna get repossessed, have to decide which utility bill to pay and which to get shut off....."

When you see a stat in some news article saying "70% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck," it's guaranteed bullshit. 

1. Typically, the source is basically a pull commissioned a shady debt consolidation firm or personal loan provider. Almost every article on this cites a "study" by LendingClub.Com.

2. Question wording matters, hugely. If you ask "would it hurt to miss your next paycheck?" or "do you feel like you don't have enough money left over at the end of the month?" you'll get a majority agreeing. If you specify something like the definition I provided above, the percentage drops precipitously. People that make six figures, but max out their 401K, put money into their kids college funds, have multiple car notes, take multiple vacations every year, will agree that they live paycheck to paycheck if you don't accurately define it.

3.  Only 78% of people age 25-65 are even in the labor force. You're telling me an overwhelming majority of (>90%) of people in this country who receive a paycheck are "struggling financially"? The poverty rate in America is 11%. The numbers just don't make sense if you dig even an inch deep into them. 

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12 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Well, dinner out has gotten ridiculous.  Just spent $14 on a side of guacamole at an independent upper mid-tier mexican restaurant.  Had to be at most 1.5 avocados with seasoning, chopped onion and diced tomatoes.  Is there an avocado shortage?

Total bill is easily 60% higher.  Ridiculous. 

Sad that it’s so hard for you to feed your family.

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2 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

my goodness you are just a veritable cornucopia of money saving ideas.  deepest appreciation for sharing your frugality.

I'm here to help all my friends who struggle to make ends meet, especially with avocados being so expensive.

 

Quote

Let me guess, you cut your children's hair at home?

I don't, but our older daughter (who is a cosmetologist) has been known to get out the old clippers every now and again for the boys.  Would you like her card?  She can do your eyelashes, too.

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2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I don't, but our older daughter (who is a cosmetologist) has been known to get out the old clippers every now and again for the boys.  Would you like her card?  She can do your eyelashes, too.

Does she style pubes? 

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On 5/3/2024 at 2:40 PM, lucious leftfoot said:

In this house, we celebrate Jobsgiving, even when it’s not as much as it expected. 
 

 

 

And even when it looks like the data may be consistently fudged. 
 

 

Don’t worry, about to have a couple of back to back, absolutely tremendous quarters. 

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35 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

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Wrong meme - should be the hard landing, because the Fed missed the airport to bring it in softly & now they are flying around and will slam it right into a slamming us all right into a recession. WIll the Fed ever figure out that driving, while looking in the rearview mirror means you should ease up sooner than you think. 
Dumbest thing ever was to keep stimulating as long as they did. 
Oh well, we need some sort of a reset anyway. 

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Dumbest thing ever was to keep stimulating as long as they did. 


Agreed, although to be fair, there was a shit ton of fiscal stimulus applied as well. Add the flame accelerant and “Wala” 9% “transitory” inflation.
Congress can’t help themselves but the Fed should’ve known better.
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On 5/8/2024 at 3:20 PM, lucious leftfoot said:

This clip is from a new documentary pumping MMT called Finding the Money. I find MMT to be an absurd premise on its face, but the way this top economic advisor fumbles over basics is pretty incredible.

The United States, as the issuer of its own fiat currency, (the U.S. dollar, which is not pegged to any commodity or other currency), "borrows" money by issuing interest-bearing securities like U.S. Treasury bonds, notes, and bills, even though it can create money to finance its spending without borrowing. 

The question is why we borrow when we can just create USD’s. To answer that question requires one to understand who benefits from the choice to borrow. For the entrenched dependent on the spice that flows from the USG’s choice to borrow, any threat the system that supplies their risk-free spice stream is ridiculed as heretical. 

MMT is merely a lens—not policy, strategy or ideology. MMT recognizes excess USD creation will cause inflation if there is insufficient supply of goods and services for those dollars. Taxes, payable in USD’s, can drain off excess dollars. Adequate supply of goods and services for the dollar will also temper inflation.

MMT is more accounting than economic theory. It is not new—its roots are in mercantilism. It describes the reality of monetary conditions once the Bretton Woods system was abandoned in 1971. 

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30 minutes ago, B00M said:

Unique take 

 

 

9 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Unique is a word for it. 

I like Zeihan just for the perspective, although I rarely agree with him 100%.  Everything is demographics with him.  Most everyday Joe’s don’t understand how much demographics affect their lives, so what Zeihan preaches is good for those people to hear, but as in this case, he’s overstating its importance relative to other factors.  For one thing, it wouldn’t be that long before the Fed has their mandate changed to raise the inflation threshold from say 2% to 4%.  But also, the Fed would prioritize addressing unemployment over inflation if that became the choice.

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4 hours ago, TxTower said:


Yep but I also agree with his basic assertion that people are overlooking the growing probability that “higher for longer” may morph into “the new normal”.

The last house we financed in Cedar Park our rate was 6% and that was considered a killer deal in 2003. It was a $163k new tract home in Deer Creek. That house would cost almost $400k to build today. Lower interest loans allowed construction suppliers to go nuts, on pricing, with the demand. I'm not sure we are gonna see concrete, lumber, plumbing, and electrical supply prices revert to pricing that it once was with the higher interest rates, but that is going to be what is needed for starter homes to become affordable again.

CHIEF

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On 5/10/2024 at 2:23 PM, BabaYaga said:

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Orthodox economics is a political ideology costumed in mathematical nonsense to rationalize the anarchy of entrenched wealth. Always has been; and always will be.

Jevons and Walras used pseudo mathematics to hide their affiliation to wealth and the political class. EK Hunt’s observed “externalities” are pervasive (the rule, not the exception) and thus render orthodox economics entirely unreliable outside the classroom. Reliance on orthodox economic theory creates “snowballing inefficiency” and “warped human development.” We live in that economic reality today.

Thus the US pays interest on money we borrow, when we have no need to borrow as an issuer of our own fiat currency not pegged to any other currency or commodity. Those who profit from this inefficiency will not give it up without a fight. 

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On 5/10/2024 at 8:15 AM, B00M said:

Unique take 

 

I can't watch manbun hiker videos so no idea as to his reasoning.

As far as higher for longer goes, I think they're more likely to stay elevated as long as fiscal stimulus is pumping at the current levels. Loose fiscal policy is fighting tighter monetary policy. 

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On 5/11/2024 at 2:05 PM, washparkhorn said:

Orthodox economics is a political ideology costumed in mathematical nonsense to rationalize the anarchy of entrenched wealth. Always has been; and always will be.

No shit.  That's why for all those listening, it's housed as a liberal arts major, and not in the business school.  

The "dismal" science indeed, as it's been oft used for rationalizing actions for far too long.  

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