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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?


Reagan1k

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Projected inflation  in G7 countries in 2024. From the IMF
Uk 2.6
USA 2.9
Italy 1.7
France 2.4
Germany 2.4
Canada 2.6
Japan 2.2
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PCPIPCH@WEO/WEOWORLD/VEN
 

Yep…and then net that against each country’s projected GDP growth to get the whole picture (esp as they are partially companion measures). Most every economy would love our mix of inflation and GDP.
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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Nope. Inflation is only happening here, and it’s entirely on Biden

 Nobody has said that.  It’s been accused as subtext ad-nauseam.  

First we had the denial phase…

then we had the bargaining phase…

 

classic stages of grief by the double couponing crew.

 

 

 

 

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 Nobody has said that.  It’s been accused as subtext ad-nauseam.  
First we had the denial phase…
then we had the bargaining phase…
 
classic stages of grief by the double couponing crew.
 
 
 
 

Then what, pray tell, do YOU think the primary factors are driving our inflation and GDP numbers?
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6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Yep…and then net that against each country’s projected GDP growth to get the whole picture (esp as they are partially companion measures). Most every economy would love our mix of inflation and GDP.

 

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:


Then what, pray tell, do YOU think the primary factors are driving our inflation and GDP numbers?

IMG-1710.jpg

debt. 
unsustainable. But how to tell when the party ends?

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42 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Then what, pray tell, do YOU think the primary factors are driving our inflation and GDP numbers?

1.) supply shocks from lockdowns

2.) demand boom from stimulus 

Currently we are dealing with knock on effects of the first wave of inflation that make inflation sticky, such as ballooning commercial/business insurance.

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8 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

LOL are you high?  I direct you to campaign quotes by your dear leader.

Once again I’ve never said anything positive about Trump.  Nothing that comes out of his mouth should be taken seriously.


but this isn’t the forum or thread for that even though you repeatedly try to cast everything in 6th as political 

Edited by Incredulity
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Just now, Incredulity said:

Once again I’ve never said anything positive about Trump.  Nothing that comes out of his mouth should be taken seriously.

Oh, we shouldn't take him seriously.  Got it.

Despite your backtracking, you were wrong.  Good thing is you should be very used to it by now.

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2 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

but this isn’t the forum or thread for that even though you repeatedly try to cast everything in 6th as political 

It's because you bitches dance around politics all the time yet run crying to moderators when anyone left of Hitler shows up.

Fuck off.

Just now, Incredulity said:

Milk update?

Ask your wife.

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1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's because you bitches dance around politics all the time yet run crying to moderators when anyone left of Hitler shows up

Lol. What the fuck are you babbling about?  
 

nonstop crying is all you do.  What a clown.

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Just now, lucious leftfoot said:

Sure it does. That’s when we fully transitioned to a fiat standard. No restriction on the ability to print. 

I gotta say, GRUhorn, props for holding off on pulling the mask off for a bit longer. You resisted posting in the crypto thread for longer than normal

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lol Sunday porch drinking has you thinking “double couponing” is some slam again. Not one person is cutting out shit with scissors.

It’s a Kroger card. It’s free. There is nothing to fill out. You get lower prices. You pull it out same time as debit/credit card. 

“I demand to pay full, selfishly inflated prices!”

It’s quite literally the effort of Ron Swanson writing down he can do whatever he wants.

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On 4/28/2024 at 9:35 AM, B00M said:

I actually would appreciate seeing how much of the current deficit is due to reduced revenues and his much is due to increased borrowing costs. If you feel like nerding out a bit 

You should see the portions that are due to expenditures... 

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On 4/28/2024 at 12:16 PM, Brisketexan said:

Most every economy would love our mix of inflation and GDP.

Too bad the people disagree. They need to check in with some of the posters here. 
 

IMG-1718.jpg

To me, this reads that inflation is underreported on the things people actually need. Because unemployment levels are good. GDP is increasing. What else explains the dissatisfaction ?

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14 minutes ago, lucious leftfoot said:

Too bad the people disagree. They need to check in with some of the posters here. 
 

IMG-1718.jpg

To me, this reads that inflation is underreported on the things people actually need. Because unemployment levels are good. GDP is increasing. What else explains the dissatisfaction ?

What explains it?

A constant bombardment of "WORST ECONOMY EVER!  BIDENOMICS!"  from the entire right-wing media sphere.  Human beings will believe anything if it is relentlessly pounded into their heads.

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Yup, a significant majority of adult Americans have never taken a freshman level macroeconomics course.  They believe what they're told, and what they're being told is a whole lot of fiction.

Most of them would tell you "Guns or Butter" is a hard rock band from LA.

Edited by jimmyjazz
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33 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

What explains it?

A constant bombardment of "WORST ECONOMY EVER!  BIDENOMICS!"  from the entire right-wing media sphere.  Human beings will believe anything if it is relentlessly pounded into their heads.

It’s a CNN poll. 
 

Is the “right wing media sphere” of Fox News so pervasive that it sways 70% people’s minds against the self-evident truth?

 

12 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Yup, a significant majority of adult Americans have never taken a freshman level macroeconomics course.  They believe what they're told, and what they're being told is a whole lot of fiction.

Most of them would tell you "Guns or Butter" is a hard rock band from LA.

Who you going to believe? Me, or your lying eyes?

This is essentially economic gaslighting.

What do you mean you’re having a hard time, baby? Look at these official GDP and inflation figures. You’re doing great. 

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7 minutes ago, lucious leftfoot said:

It’s a CNN poll. 
 

Is the “right wing media sphere” of Fox News so pervasive that it sways 70% people’s minds against the self-evident truth?

 

Who you going to believe? Me, or your lying eyes?

This is essentially economic gaslighting.

What do you mean you’re having a hard time, baby? Look at these official GDP and inflation figures. You’re doing great. 

I mean, we know wage growth is outpacing price growth, so what exactly is your point, GRUHorn?

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35 minutes ago, lucious leftfoot said:

It’s a CNN poll. 
 

Is the “right wing media sphere” of Fox News so pervasive that it sways 70% people’s minds against the self-evident truth?

 

Who you going to believe? Me, or your lying eyes?

This is essentially economic gaslighting.

What do you mean you’re having a hard time, baby? Look at these official GDP and inflation figures. You’re doing great. 

I mean if you want smoke blown up your ass about the economy, that's more 52-80's beat than brisket or Jimmy. The """economy""" writ large is doing good if you're a stock monkey  because NGU, but if you're a wage earner you're at the tail end of a 4 decade long run of fucking workers over. 

The fucking workers over is tough to pin 100% on Biden unless you've got an agenda to push. But then again when haven't you had an agenda, GRU?

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29 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I mean, we know wage growth is outpacing price growth, so what exactly is your point, GRUHorn?

Ok, well I searched real wages on the Fred site and this is what I found. 
 

IMG-1720.jpg

you’ll see at the top the Q1 2024 value is 365. In Q1 2020, on the brink of Covid, it was 367. So it’s been flat for 4 years. 
 

I will admit I’m too lazy to look up how Fed calculates real earnings, but I’m guessing it uses CPI or some derivative. If you’re understating or underweighting inflation, especially in things people actually want, then you will have artificially inflated real earnings. I suspect this is what the less rosy picture that people see is based on. 

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5 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I mean if you want smoke blown up your ass about the economy, that's more 52-80's beat than brisket or Jimmy. The """economy""" writ large is doing good if you're a stock monkey  because NGU, but if you're a wage earner you're at the tail end of a 4 decade long run of fucking workers over. 

The fucking workers over is tough to pin 100% on Biden unless you've got an agenda to push. But then again when haven't you had an agenda, GRU?

This is the inflation thread. You, and others, keep bringing politician’s names into it. I’m a both sides money printing disrespectooooor. 

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I really don’t understand why there is so much arguing in this thread. The deficits being run right now are considered a serious issue by just about every credible economist and fiscal policy maker out there. 

Both parties share the blame for this, some politicians more than others,and the only way to get this situation out of the extreme red zone is a combination of more taxation revenue carefully applied, more controlled spending, and using moderately higher inflation over the next 15 years to bleed away some of the debt as a percentage of gdp. That is the only solution. Period. 

The faster the parties come to terms with it and try to start solving it, the faster the danger can be reduced. Otherwise the climb to catastrophe continues. Maybe we do all end up on Bitcoin. 

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Just now, Dbeasy said:

I really don’t understand why there is so much arguing in this thread. The deficits being run right now are considered a serious issue by just about every credible economist and fiscal policy maker out there. 

Both parties share the blame for this, some politicians more than others,and the only way to get this situation out of the extreme red zone is a combination of more taxation revenue carefully applied, more controlled spending, and using moderately higher inflation over the next 15 years to bleed away some of the debt as a percentage of gdp. That is the only solution. Period. 

The faster the parties come to terms with it and try to start solving it, the faster the danger can be reduced. Otherwise the climb to catastrophe continues. Maybe we do all end up on Bitcoin. 

My problem is that inflation is fundamentally too much money in the market - usually from debt based spending, and taxation is a direct way to remove money from the economy. That balance has been completely out of whack since the 2000s with the nonstop tax cuts and spending increases. No shit money is getting devalued! 

The problem is that it's a pretty exclusive position in America that "taxation is theft" and other such platitudes about how the gubmint is taking muh munee. The parties will have a hell of a time making those ends meet, because the hatred of taxation has now sublimated into dogma and id. And there's still a fuckin boatload of federal subsidy pouring out more and more money. 

There's gotta be a sink, or a negative input to a system. Otherwise it will invariably oscillate and escalate out of control

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2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

My problem is that inflation is fundamentally too much money in the market - usually from debt based spending, and taxation is a direct way to remove money from the economy. That balance has been completely out of whack since the 2000s with the nonstop tax cuts and spending increases. No shit money is getting devalued! 

The problem is that it's a pretty exclusive position in America that "taxation is theft" and other such platitudes about how the gubmint is taking muh munee. The parties will have a hell of a time making those ends meet, because the hatred of taxation has now sublimated into dogma and id. And there's still a fuckin boatload of federal subsidy pouring out more and more money. 

There's gotta be a sink, or a negative input to a system. Otherwise it will invariably oscillate and escalate out of control

We agree, and if we agree that means it really should be done because we do not come from the same world outlook on many topics. 

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10 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I really don’t understand why there is so much arguing in this thread. The deficits being run right now are considered a serious issue by just about every credible economist and fiscal policy maker out there. 

Both parties share the blame for this, some politicians more than others,and the only way to get this situation out of the extreme red zone is a combination of more taxation revenue carefully applied, more controlled spending, and using moderately higher inflation over the next 15 years to bleed away some of the debt as a percentage of gdp. That is the only solution. Period. 

The faster the parties come to terms with it and try to start solving it, the faster the danger can be reduced. Otherwise the climb to catastrophe continues. Maybe we do all end up on Bitcoin. 

It's formally lights out when the 100% of GDP is used to pay the interest on debts owed.  

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Seems to me the polls miss the point when asking about inflation.

Sure growth may have slowed, and people are maybe appreciative of that, but the real problem is rent, houses, groceries, and other shit just costs too damn much relative to what a lot of people make. We could grow at zero percent and that’s not gonna change things.

That’s what people are upset about. And it’s not going to change unless incomes grow faster than costs by a bunch. And our system isn’t going to allow that for the masses.

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5 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Seems to me the polls miss the point when asking about inflation.

Sure growth may have slowed, and people are maybe appreciative of that, but the real problem is rent, houses, groceries, and other shit just costs too damn much relative to what a lot of people make.

I won't dispute that real estate exploded in the last 5-6 years, but a quick google search shows Austin rents are down 7.4% year over yeard, and up a net 18% since 2019.  That's 3.1% annual growth.  My math could be off, though, and the data could be wrong.  Just a snapshot.

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1 minute ago, Incredulity said:

What the fuck are you talking about?  You constantly piss down your leg about disinformation then come here with flat out lies.  Fuck off

https://itep.org/federal-tax-cuts-in-the-bush-obama-and-trump-years/

Sorry I didn't include a link to back my claim of what happened in the past is what happened in the past. Taxes have been consistently cut while spending fueled by debt has grown over the same period (because taxes were cut). 

But if you'd care to give me a more cogent disagreement than quoting 7 words out of a post and saying "NYUH UH!!" that'd be neat

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30 minutes ago, Captainant said:

My problem is that inflation is fundamentally too much money in the market - usually from debt based spending, and taxation is a direct way to remove money from the economy. That balance has been completely out of whack since the 2000s with the nonstop tax cuts and spending increases. No shit money is getting devalued! 

The problem is that it's a pretty exclusive position in America that "taxation is theft" and other such platitudes about how the gubmint is taking muh munee. The parties will have a hell of a time making those ends meet, because the hatred of taxation has now sublimated into dogma and id. And there's still a fuckin boatload of federal subsidy pouring out more and more money. 

There's gotta be a sink, or a negative input to a system. Otherwise it will invariably oscillate and escalate out of control

Sure, let’s raise taxes. As I posted before, you can maybe milk another $500B out. That still leaves a $1.2T deficit last year if you did that. 
 

So that leaves spending cuts. Which would you suggest? Remember the freak out and horror of the sequester? And that was not much in the grand scheme of things. 
 

42 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I really don’t understand why there is so much arguing in this thread. The deficits being run right now are considered a serious issue by just about every credible economist and fiscal policy maker out there.

Well these credible economist and policy makers don’t seem to have a seat at the table of policy making. 
 

As far as the arguing, it really comes down to those who favor Keynesian policies and centralized planning vs the opposite. There’s some fraying at the edges of the current financial system based on the former. If that dogma fails dramatically, then it could/should lead people to question a lot. That’s troubling to them.

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, lucious leftfoot said:

Sure, let’s raise taxes. As I posted before, you can maybe milk another $500B out. That still leaves a $1.2T deficit last year if you did that. 
 

So that leaves spending cuts. Which would you suggest? Remember the freak out and horror of the sequester? And that was not much in the grand scheme of things. 

We didn't get into this debt in an instant, and arguing that any solution must immediately resolve it is not a serious one. There has to be a balanced approach, not just starving the beast so your buttcoins will be worth more

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10 minutes ago, Captainant said:

https://itep.org/federal-tax-cuts-in-the-bush-obama-and-trump-years/

Sorry I didn't include a link to back my claim of what happened in the past is what happened in the past. Taxes have been consistently cut while spending fueled by debt has grown over the same period (because taxes were cut). 

But if you'd care to give me a more cogent disagreement than quoting 7 words out of a post and saying "NYUH UH!!" that'd be neat

There have been cuts AND increases since 2000.  You just happen to omit the increases to sell your anti-capitalism/anti-USA garbage 

Edited by Incredulity
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I won't dispute that real estate exploded in the last 5-6 years, but a quick google search shows Austin rents are down 7.4% year over yeard, and up a net 18% since 2019.  That's 3.1% annual growth.  My math could be off, though, and the data could be wrong.  Just a snapshot.

That’s not far off. Here’s the actual numbers according to Witten Advisors.

The real affordability measure for rents though is percent of income spent on rent by apartment renters. I’ll look that up later when I have a minute. 565558e3f676bdb5d763a3a7a4e7146f.jpg
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