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Left Behind: A Quick Dose Of Post Big 12 Reality


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Baylor write-up... 😋

The Big 12 is once again in limbo; Texas and Oklahoma looking to move to the SEC

ByGARRETT ROSS 7 hours ago

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It’s been an interesting week for the Big 12, as reports surfaced on Wednesday that Texas and Oklahoma have both petitioned to leave the league and join the SEC. Coincidentally, this comes right after Big 12 Media Days and right before Texas A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher took the podium at SEC Media Days. 

Fisher made a short, but direct comment about the move when asked stating simply, “I bet they would. We got the greatest league in ball.”

Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby joked about the possibility of conference realignment last week, telling reporters “Our group is closer today then we have been in my tenure. I frankly don’t spend much time worrying about conference migration.”

College football insider Brett McMurphy of The Stadium reported that Texas and Oklahoma will let the Big 12 know that they will not be renewing their media grant rights, which expires in 2025.

Now that Texas and Oklahoma have garnered the national spotlight by wanting out, what’s next for the remaining eight programs in the Big 12?

Programs like Baylor can’t sit idle and wait for the dominos to fall. It’s natural for the immediate thought to be bring in Houston and BYU, but those two programs can’t replace the type of revenue that Texas and Oklahoma brought in.

In all likelihood, if Texas and Oklahoma do bolt to the SEC, then the Big 12 will cease to exist. Baylor is in a much better position to make themselves an asset to another league than in years past, but what league makes the most sense?

The ACC would be a great fit for the Bears, but logistically it doesn’t make sense. The PAC-12 is another viable option, but once again it doesn’t make sense logistically.

You could make the argument that logistics don’t really play that big of a role anymore, and you could easily point to West Virginia being in the Big 12. While that is true, West Virginia would make an easier transition to the ACC then Baylor.

At the moment, I believe that Iowa State is in the best position to make a pivot, as they are already located in Big 10 territory. Kansas and Kansas State could easily follow the Cyclones as well. 

Texas Tech could make the transition to the PAC 12, if invited, easier then Baylor due to the proximity of Lubbock. Oklahoma State and TCU are also in a limbo with Baylor.

One option would be to get Texas Tech and West Virginia to stay and invite Arizona and Arizona State to create a new conference.  If those teams were interested, and you added SMU, Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati and Tulsa it could work.

The only thing set in stone at the moment is chaos. Despite Texas and Oklahoma making the announcement, it would still require 11 of the 14 SEC programs to agree on the move. 

Texas A&M and Missouri both left the Big 12 in the first place to escape the drama of Texas and Oklahoma, so those votes won’t go in favor of the move. Arkansas left the SWC for similar reasons, so I wouldn’t expect the Hogs to be in favor either. 

https://247sports.com/college/baylor/Article/The-Big-12-is-once-again-in-limbo-Texas-and-Oklahoma-looking-to-move-to-the-SEC-168100133/

 

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3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Tech and OSU definitely have some marketability to the PAC.

KU has some marketability to both the B1G and the PAC based on basketball.

KSU has been a football player before, MAYBE they are attractive to someone.

WVU might make sense as a fit in the B1G, but man....it's WV, there's like 3 TVs in the state.

Baylor and TCU, not terribly attractive to anyone.

ISU....man, I like 'em.  I really do.  Maybe they make some sense in the B1G, but they don't bring a whole lot to the table.

An alternate path is to bulk up the Big XII like a mofo with numbers, if not quality.  Bring in UH, SMU, shit, I dunno, maybe steal some schools from the AAC?  Maybe MERGE with the AAC as a superconference?

 

Nobody left has any marketability. There are a handful of programs that could force their way into the Big 10. SC, ND, and UNC might be the only ones who could cause a shake up. Maybe Oregon, Clemson and FSU, but they don't really fit the Big 10 profile. Look at this graphic below, what hammered dog shit. That league excites exactly nobody and makes no money. 

The Big 12 leftovers just need to chill until the Big 10 strikes back, and the Big 10 has to hit the ACC because killing the already dead Pac won't change anything. It also has to be a combo of the teams above, because the move has to make a huge splash. When that shit happens, it will force the formation of the super league and we can all be friends again. 

 

1 hour ago, LTtxfan said:

From @Nicole44

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Sports Illustrated...

If Texas and Oklahoma Bolt to the SEC, What Happens to the Rest of the Big 12?

Pat Forde  37 mins ago

With the conference's two flagship schools seemingly on the verge of leaving, there are few options for what would be the eight remainders.

Big 12 leaders held an emergency meeting Thursday, and the schools that didn’t attend said everything in their absence. The league is hanging by a pair of threads—one burnt orange, the other crimson—and the scissors are looming.

The conference’s reality has been an open secret for 10 years, since it last was shaken by realignment: Texas and Oklahoma are the premier athletic properties, and everyone else is along for the ride and hanging on for dear life. If the big dogs move on, the Big 12 suddenly resembles the American Athletic Conference. And now the big dogs are very serious about moving on.

Texas and Oklahoma have expressed interest in joining the Southeastern Conference. There also is conjecture that other leagues could be in play, or independent status. Staying put is also an option, of course, but certainly not the option at the top of the list. Schools don’t risk triggering upheaval on this scale on a whim.

Then again, Texas and Oklahoma also know they can toy with the Big 12’s emotions and probably be taken back. It would be a brazen display of disrespect—but ultimately, what other options are there for the Tagalong Eight? The Horns and Sooners are their ticket to the Power 5 Club. Lose them, and they lose the most powerful status in college sports.

The Power 5 conferences (potentially en route to being the Power 4) are where the big money is, and every competitive advantage that goes along with that money. Scheduling clout, recruiting clout, preferential treatment from pollsters and media. The system is geared to protect and enhance those with membership to The Club.

Ask Big 12 member Iowa State if it would like to trade places with AAC member Cincinnati, after seeing the way the College Football Playoff selection committee treated the two last fall. The two-loss Cyclones stayed ahead of the undefeated Bearcats heading into the final CFP rankings, and conference affiliation undoubtedly was a major reason why.

So if you remove the foundation of the Big 12’s Power 5 membership, what happens? There seem to be four options.

Poaching and hoping

The first instinct would be to raid the rest of the country to prop up the product and hope it remains marketable to media rights partners. The non-coast element of the Pac-12 could offer up some targets in Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado, although the Buffaloes have already been there and done that with the Big 12. That, in turn, would further destabilize the Pac-12, which is not the Big 12’s concern in the Hunger Games world of college athletics.

There are other options among schools the Big 12 haughtily invited to apply and then rejected several years ago when it toyed with expansion: BYU, Boise State, Colorado State, SMU, Houston, UCF, USF, Cincinnati and Memphis would be the top candidates.

None of the above presents a perfect fit. None of the above adequately replaces Texas and Oklahoma. But even as the SEC and Big Ten put further distance between themselves and everyone else, the goal is to be near the top of the Everyone Else list. Adding successful programs would give the Big 12 a chance to maintain some of its status.

Diaspora

The Tagalong Eight lunge for other power conference life rafts, going their separate ways and disbanding the Big 12. Their individual problem, as it has been for eternity, is a lack of stand-alone marketability. Those schools do not pass the three-pronged test of TV market, traditional success and massive fan base.

Texas annually puts nearly 100,000 fans in the seats for home football games, a top 10 program in terms of attendance. Oklahoma is mid-80,000s, a top 15 attendance program. After that, no Big 12 school has averaged 60,000 fans per home game from 2017-19. Iowa State, West Virginia, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State all have been in the mid-to-high 50,000s; Kansas State, Baylor and TCU are the next tier; and Kansas is its own mud flat of apathy.

Is the Big Ten going to add any of those programs just to keep pace with an SEC move to 16? Its last round of expansion already left bruises, with Rutgers and Maryland bringing little other than East Coast cable audiences to the table.

The only other blueblood revenue program in the conference is Kansas men’s basketball, and that comes with two problems attached: it is a compliance tire fire at the moment, deep into a major NCAA infractions case; as we learned very clearly a decade ago, basketball really doesn’t matter. Football matters, and Kansas is the worst Power 5 football program in the country—and has its own compliance issues.

It’s a hard reality for Iowa State, which has painstakingly built a very good football program. For Oklahoma State, which has become one of the better all-sports departments in the nation. For Baylor, which can win a men’s basketball national title and still not enjoy an overall status change. For West Virginia and it passionate fans, for Kansas State and its Bill Snyder Era miracle, for Texas Tech and its large enrollment isolated on the plains of West Texas.

The rest of the Power 5 isn’t likely to come running for them.

Politicians

This is a more specific measure for the likes of Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, which used political pressure to attempt to ride the coattails of the Sooners and Longhorns out of the Big 12 in the last realignment spasm. In the end, that helped keep the league together. This time, it might be viewed more as a legitimate escape strategy.

But let’s be clear: Texas and Oklahoma aren’t at this point if they’re worried about being hemmed in politically. Whatever hurdles that presented in 2011 don’t seem to exist in 2021. This is a limited, long-shot strategy that, again, would only benefit a couple of schools.

Relegation and/or alliance

The eight remaining schools accept their lot, stick together and become an even smaller and less mathematically accurate Big 12, also known as the Heartland Survivor League or the Best Damn Non-P5 Conference in America.

Or Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby and AAC commish Mike Aresco meet in the Metroplex—where both leagues have their offices—and hatch a plan to combine forces. A mashup of 19 schools isn’t going to work, which could lead to some bloodletting (sleep with one eye open, East Carolina, Tulsa, Temple, Tulane). But a combination of the best of what’s left might have some viability beyond an eight-team tweener league.

All options will be on the table. None of them are overly attractive. But when membership in the Power 5 Club has forever been dependent on a couple of bluebloods, this sort of disaster scenario is always possible.

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9 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Interesting how almost all of the attacks for TEXAS/blOU moving to the SEC have been aimed at the HORNS.

Any really negative stuff out there towards blOU leaving B12 ??

 

It's because nobody likes OU. They have been shitheads since the dawn of time, so OU leaving you to die is expected behavior.

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1 minute ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

Kansas has gotta be positioning themselves for a run to the B10. It's exactly what the league would want: a basketball blue blood and a football team that is no threat to the top dogs. 

B10 needs to poach some better football teams -- maybe Notre Dame and Mizzu?

Would aggy even consider a move to the B10 or PAC12 ??

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Aggy would never go Pac (and that might be mutual since Texas wouldn't be part of the deal).

They'd actually fit in B10 but I don't think even aggy would run away from big brother twice. They're chickenshits, but that would be such a blow to everything they've built themselves around--Alabama's success--the past decade that they'd have nothing to hang their hat on. Other than being insufferable, booger eating morons.

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Just to add to the anxiety levels of the various potential orphan schools' fans, I wanted to remind everyone that the current B1G commissioner is a fucking moron. Jim Delaney would have had all this shit figured out already, but Kevin Warren probably isn't even aware of the situation yet.

He did make reference to Illinois University during his first Media Day appearance today though. 

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10 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Tech, despite their shit bag fans, has been a good solider. I hope they end up in the Pac 12. 

Tech was always the guy you could count on to help dig the hole for the dead hooker and keep his mouth shut.

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A surprising post from TexAgs:

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Many of us don't want to believe that it's happening, but the following are all indisputable facts.

1. A&M has literally zero stroke in this decision. None. We hold no leverage, power or clout whatsoever. Our well being is not even slightly being considered by Shankey.

2. Both tu and OU are top five schools/brands/powers by every stretch. If they truly want to join the SEC, they're in. No conference is going to say "no" to either of them. Ever.

3. Any so called "gentlemen's agreement" holds no weight and is not being considered in the least by Shankey. His only consideration is money.

4. Every team in the SEC will eventually vote "yes" to the admission of tu and OU. Even us.

5. Oklahoma's legislature has exactly zero power to force an OSU tag along or lawfully bar OU from disassociating from OSU. If OU wants to leave by themselves, they can.

6. tu and OU's admission to the SEC will devastate A&M. Absolutely obliterates any momentum we have and will ultimately relegate us back to the position we held in the Big 12. Average to below average. Any position to the contrary is devoid of logic and reason.

7. This sucks but it's absolutely happening. Literally every taking head that has commented on this has indicated it's pretty much a done deal. An announcement will be made within the next 48 hours.

 

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Are you dipshits this brain dead?

Big 12 and PAC 12 cease to exist.

We want money? Then we need markets. How about the west coast? How about USC?

16 team conferences are awful. Super conferences if they’re coming should result in reaching out to

Arkansas
USC
Oregon
Washington
Notre Dame
Arizona
Arizona State
Oregon State
Washington State
Utah
UCLA

If the SEC gets 16, the PAC 12 is now 4th of the super conferences because the ACC and Big 10 will follow. Limited recruiting in Texas for west coast schools.

The pac is dying more so than the Big 12.

USC and Oregon have big time potential and would like to have in roads to Texas recruiting. Same for al the above.

No west coast games after 7 central for the non-west coast teams. But give us some stellar late TV games from old PAC school.

Go 12 teams. Get rid of Kstate and Kansas.

Better possibilities than than the SEC and we avoid some of the sec filth until playoff time.

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3 minutes ago, Had Enough said:

Are you dipshits this brain dead?

Big 12 and PAC 12 cease to exist.

We want money? Then we need markets. How about the west coast? How about USC?

16 team conferences are awful. Super conferences if they’re coming should result in reaching out to

Arkansas
USC
Oregon
Washington
Notre Dame
Arizona
Arizona State
Oregon State
Washington State
Utah
UCLA

If the SEC gets 16, the PAC 12 is now 4th of the super conferences because the ACC and Big 10 will follow. Limited recruiting in Texas for west coast schools.

The pac is dying more so than the Big 12.

USC and Oregon have big time potential and would like to have in roads to Texas recruiting. Same for al the above.

No west coast games after 7 central for the non-west coast teams. But give us some stellar late TV games from old PAC school.

Go 12 teams. Get rid of Kstate and Kansas.

Better possibilities than than the SEC and we avoid some of the sec filth until playoff time.

Where do ya'll come up with this stupid shit?

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6 minutes ago, Had Enough said:

Are you dipshits this brain dead?

Big 12 and PAC 12 cease to exist.

We want money? Then we need markets. How about the west coast? How about USC?

16 team conferences are awful. Super conferences if they’re coming should result in reaching out to

Arkansas
USC
Oregon
Washington
Notre Dame
Arizona
Arizona State
Oregon State
Washington State
Utah
UCLA

If the SEC gets 16, the PAC 12 is now 4th of the super conferences because the ACC and Big 10 will follow. Limited recruiting in Texas for west coast schools.

The pac is dying more so than the Big 12.

USC and Oregon have big time potential and would like to have in roads to Texas recruiting. Same for al the above.

No west coast games after 7 central for the non-west coast teams. But give us some stellar late TV games from old PAC school.

Go 12 teams. Get rid of Kstate and Kansas.

Better possibilities than than the SEC and we avoid some of the sec filth until playoff time.

 

Hard to follow all your suggestions...

But no way in HELL do you bet your football future with teams in California -- their state's politicians don't give a shit about CFB

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Where do ya'll come up with this stupid shit?

Not stupid at all. It won’t happen. But it should be a consideration. The population of how many states would California cover? Discount it by half even. Set it up for football figure the rest out separately if need be.

The only hope USC has is a higher chance at the playoff in the crappy PAC 16. But they might get annihilated in that playoff because they’ll trail the other coast in interest, prestige, recruiting.

Texas absolutely loses some of its identity going SEC.

There’s nothing tremendously special about playing at Starkville, the Columbia’s, Kentucky or even Oxford. There’s trade offs to all choices. And there’s always non- conference options.

The money would be there if done right. Texas-OU are still favorites to represent in the conference champ if that were to continue. You add premier venues for recruiting purposes.
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3 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

The Arizona schools are making decent to good money in the Pac 12. Why in the hell would they want to leave for a conference with Tulsa? 

PAC12 is not doing well, their TV deal is bad, USC, Oregon and the Arizona schools have made multiple public comments that they are not happy.  Arizona and ASU to the Big12 could have happened prior to this SEC move because our TV deal was better and we had better ratings, but it was always a long shot.

3 hours ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

 

Nobody left has any marketability. There are a handful of programs that could force their way into the Big 10. SC, ND, and UNC might be the only ones who could cause a shake up. Maybe Oregon, Clemson and FSU, but they don't really fit the Big 10 profile. Look at this graphic below, what hammered dog shit. That league excites exactly nobody and makes no money. 

The Big 12 leftovers just need to chill until the Big 10 strikes back, and the Big 10 has to hit the ACC because killing the already dead Pac won't change anything. It also has to be a combo of the teams above, because the move has to make a huge splash. When that shit happens, it will force the formation of the super league and we can all be friends again.

ACC is on GOR lockdown until 2030 something and they have 14 fb schools plus ND (also on lock down) they aren’t poachable right now.  They also have WVU and UConn waiting on an invite so even in the log shot they lose 1 they’ll be fine.  The B1G can only really look at Kansas and ISU or UConn not really any other options worth discussing.  I personally doubt ISU gets pulled, but Kansas might and the B1G has been known to be patient so they could work with 15 for a few years if they had to but honestly I think some sort of Western wing for PAC AAU schools might be the next big play (Washington, Oregon, USC, Stanford, UCLA, Cal, Arizona and Colorado).

1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Baylor from a basketball national championship to the AAC in the span of 2 years. Life comes at you fast. 

Fuck em

1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Tech, despite their shit bag fans, has been a good solider. I hope they end up in the Pac 12. 

If the PAC is going to survive (and keep its best schools) they need the biggest football schools they can get, Tech has 40k students a 60k seat stadium, a recent final four in basketball and baseball, history with AZ/Utah/CU, the PAC with just have to get over their academics, would bring more eyeballs from a large and growing state.  Pairing them with Oklahoma State (good all around sports school), Kansas (basketball and academics)(three most valuable teams left) and another good non religious Texas (UH? but honestly none available really fit the bill) and get them some 11am games and Central/Eastern exposure/relevance plus tap into a few major markets (DFW,OKC,KC, maybe Houston).  If not those 4 Then the question is if they’d go for Iowa State (who would be an obvious choice if in a bigger or more western state) or hold their nose and give Boise State a chance (I don’t think so but the TV dollars might demand it) or do it based on geography (Nevada, UNLV, New Mexico, Hawaii lol) or academics (Rice? sigh) never bet against stupid just look at their California travel bans and they way they handled COVID.

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4 minutes ago, Had Enough said:


Not stupid at all. It won’t happen. But it should be a consideration. The population of how many states would California cover? Discount it by half even. Set it up for football figure the rest out separately if need be.

The only hope USC has is a higher chance at the playoff in the crappy PAC 16. But they might get annihilated in that playoff because they’ll trail the other coast in interest, prestige, recruiting.

Texas absolutely loses some of its identity going SEC.

There’s nothing tremendously special about playing at Starkville, the Columbia’s, Kentucky or even Oxford. There’s trade offs to all choices. And there’s always non- conference options.

The money would be there if done right. Texas-OU are still favorites to represent in the conference champ if that were to continue. You add premier venues for recruiting purposes.

The PAC 12 and specifically California do not give a shit about college football. Full stop.

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