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16 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

I can’t decide if Tucker fucked himself by waiting to sign an extension. He bet on himself and has come through with a very good season so far. But can the Astros give him more than they gave Yordan?

Yes.  He is way more of a 2 way player than Yordan and he's got no injury history while Yordan has had surgery on both his knees.  There's also less risk associated with his body type than Yordan's.  I always assumed they would (at worst for Tucker) get equal money, but most likely see Tucker get more than Yordan.  Astros should go 6/150 and Tucker should sign that imo. Fair deal both ways. 

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2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah- he was at 101 a couple weeks ago when I looked at him- which was pretty brutal for him, so that's a pretty nice run to get back up to 129.  I don't think it can just be about walks- we do need to see him drive the ball more, I think, if it's to be sustainable.  Walks are great and a cheat code in some ways, but man- looking at stats from the other day in NY and he's at like 40% for example, of getting the guy home from 3rd and league average is 60%. If he's going to hit behind Yordan and in front of Tucker he's going to have to do some of the work himself.  

The War calcs must show that he's still playing pretty good defense.  I know he's been off on a couple throws lately- so wonder what that's all about.  Random?  Or something nagging?

I've given up on the MVP guy.  He does need to be above average to fringe all star level though for us to really go.  I think we saw that in the WS last year when he was so awful and such an anchor when he's not that dude.  Frustrating cat.  This should be his prime.  I really wonder if he doesn't have too much stuff in his head.  He was always a chip on his shoulder baseball rat guy that maximized. Having a wife, commercials, race horses, salsa lines etc. might be tougher for him to keep his edge than some other more physically talented guys.  Has a real Rocky 3 beginning of the movie feel to his last couple seasons. Hell, he doesn't even seem arrogant anymore.  

I have to think he’s been mostly just unlucky so far. Very low BABIP, Statcast numbers aren’t bad, etc. Regression seems to be in effect right now. And he hasn’t lost his elite plate discipline, which makes his offensive floor very high (I think we were seeing it a couple of weeks ago).

Also Rocky 3 might be my favorite move ever, so repped for that.

6 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I have to think he’s been mostly just unlucky so far. Very low BABIP, Statcast numbers aren’t bad, etc. Regression seems to be in effect right now. And he hasn’t lost his elite plate discipline, which makes his offensive floor very high (I think we were seeing it a couple of weeks ago).

Also Rocky 3 might be my favorite move ever, so repped for that.

Some of it's unlucky, but he's also been hitting those stupid pop ups really frequently and lazy fly balls to the wall. He needs to level his swing plane a little more (he's working on that I think), or better yet, get on some steroids/HGH so the warning track stuff gets over the wall.  I need that guy back that is going to hit 35 HR's throughout his prime.  Whatever it takes Alex, whatever it takes. 

Hell, Baseball reference has negative defensive WAR for Bregman and him only at 1.4 WAR- which would have him be about a 3 WAR player for the year.  Lowest Slug of his career.  Walk rate in line with his MVP ish seasons.  Difference between MVP Bregman and this Bregman is 55 points in his batting average and an ISO that's 70 -100 points below his ISO back then.  He's got a 170 ISO.  That's not great for a guy in the middle of the order.  I like 100 points OBP separation from BA (he's overperforming there at 120) and at least 200 in his slugging.

 

That jives with my eyes.  His defense isn't what it was.  His throws have been off.  The Bregman of 2017-2019 would charge in, one hand a ball and fire a rope to first base.  Then he would hit a homer and strut for the dugout cam.  It really does seem like a confidence thing.  He's not the same cocky asshole anymore.

Edited by kevwun

12 minutes ago, kevwun said:

That jives with my eyes.  His defense isn't what it was.  His throws have been off.  The Bregman of 2017-2019 would charge in, one hand a ball and fire a rope to first base.  Then he would hit a homer and strut for the dugout cam.  It really does seem like a confidence thing.  He's not the same cocky asshole anymore.

You're lucky @Beau Vine doesn't read this thread. 

Yeah I’ve wondered if he’s the type of hitter who may be more impacted than others by a ball that doesn’t carry as well…even when hitting 40 HR, he wasn’t a guy with elite exit velo or hard hit rates. In 2019, he was 53rd percentile in EV, 42nd percentile in hard hit%. He isn’t Yordan, who hits the absolute shit out of the ball at an extraordinary rate, he never was; he was a guy whose “game power” seemed to exceed his “raw power.” So my guess is that some of those fly balls that are dying at the track may have been HRs the last few seasons, with the livelier ball. That may call for an adjustment in his approach. 

 

5 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Yeah I’ve wondered if he’s the type of hitter who may be more impacted than others by a ball that doesn’t carry as well…

Bingo, I think the dejuiced ball explains a lot of his difference in results

11 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

You're lucky @Beau Vine doesn't read this thread. 

jive-airplane.gif

48 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Hell, Baseball reference has negative defensive WAR for Bregman and him only at 1.4 WAR- which would have him be about a 3 WAR player for the year.  Lowest Slug of his career.  Walk rate in line with his MVP ish seasons.  Difference between MVP Bregman and this Bregman is 55 points in his batting average and an ISO that's 70 -100 points below his ISO back then.  He's got a 170 ISO.  That's not great for a guy in the middle of the order.  I like 100 points OBP separation from BA (he's overperforming there at 120) and at least 200 in his slugging.

 


I’ll quote Altuve - bregman or yuli can get hot and carry this team. 

 

both guys are trending upward. Keep sending them out there 

17 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Yeah I’ve wondered if he’s the type of hitter who may be more impacted than others by a ball that doesn’t carry as well…even when hitting 40 HR, he wasn’t a guy with elite exit velo or hard hit rates. In 2019, he was 53rd percentile in EV, 42nd percentile in hard hit%. He isn’t Yordan, who hits the absolute shit out of the ball at an extraordinary rate, he never was; he was a guy whose “game power” seemed to exceed his “raw power.” So my guess is that some of those fly balls that are dying at the track may have been HRs the last few seasons, with the livelier ball. That may call for an adjustment in his approach. 

 

Yes.  He hit a disproportionate amount of wall scrapers and crawford box jobs when he was going so well in 2018 & 2019.  Thus, my suggestion he load up on vitamin S to counteract that if this new mush ball is a thing.  

Enolo needs to talk with framber’s psychiatrist

he has a very active arm, lot of movement on the ball  

Edited by tx 3 putt

2 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:


I’ll quote Altuve - bregman or yuli can get hot and carry this team. 

 

both guys are trending upward. Keep sending them out there 

I mean, there is absolutely zero thought that we will do anything other than keep sending Bregman out there.  Yuli, I strongly suspect, has 5 or 6 weeks to audition for the job the rest of the way.  We thought he was getting a little frisky a couple weeks ago and then he had an 0-21 or something and it was broken by a couple ground ball doubles down the left field line that weren't exactly crushed, and a couple loopers as well.  Nobody wants Yuli to hit more than me.  At some time age gets us all, and there's nothing in his batted ball profiles to suggest him being unlucky the way there is for Bregs. 

 

4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yes.  He hit a disproportionate amount of wall scrapers and crawford box jobs when he was going so well in 2018 & 2019.  Thus, my suggestion he load up on vitamin S to counteract that if this new mush ball is a thing.  

Nah, we just need to adjust our expectations and accept that he’s just not a 40 HR guy. I expect him to be more like 2017 Bregman than 2019 Bregman.

He will finish the year in the neighborhood of .265/.375/.475 with 20-25 HR. I think that’s more or less who he is, and that is really good.

5 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Nah, we just need to adjust our expectations and accept that he’s just not a 40 HR guy. I expect him to be more like 2017 Bregman than 2019 Bregman.

He will finish the year in the neighborhood of .265/.375/.475 with 20-25 HR. I think that’s more or less who he is, and that is really good.

I'd take that statline for him in a heartbeat at the EOY. He's going to need to have a better second half than he did first half to get there, but he's always been a slow starter.  


I’ll go wulaw here for a second (and less words) ……
 
no way in hell am I trading whitley !!!!

Interesting that there are at least 4 scouts in attendance……..

Back in 2019, that Bregman popup would have soared 30 feet higher. 

Old man speed.

Pina hustle

Wtf is that 3rd base ump wearing

2 hours ago, kevwun said:

That jives with my eyes.  His defense isn't what it was.  His throws have been off.  The Bregman of 2017-2019 would charge in, one hand a ball and fire a rope to first base.  Then he would hit a homer and strut for the dugout cam.  It really does seem like a confidence thing.  He's not the same cocky asshole anymore.

I think it's because he got married. Regular pussy can tame the savage beast.  

Why do we hate JV and refuse to score for him?  Can't even blame this on the lineup.  This is about as close to optimized as we can get today...

18 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

I think it's because he got married. Regular pussy can tame the savage beast.  

Great analysis there...

19 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

I think it's because he got married. Regular pussy can tame the savage beast.  

You must not be married 

8 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Why do we hate JV and refuse to score for him?  Can't even blame this on the lineup.  This is about as close to optimized as we can get today...

They’re very aggressive at the plate today. Need to make contact 

10 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Why do we hate JV and refuse to score for him?  Can't even blame this on the lineup.  This is about as close to optimized as we can get today...

9 yesterday means we were pretty much guaranteed 2 or fewer today.  God damn law of averages. 

Mets pitcher shakes off like 5 signs.

This ain't Burger King, motherfucker.   Pick one.

What this game lacks in fireworks it makes up for in time of game... if that one fucker for NYM didn't have a 12 pitch AB we might be going into the 7th inning stretch right now.

No ph huh?  Castro's got this.

And here is the situation why it's so irritating to see Castro at 8th and Meyers at 9th.  Fuck second leadoff. Hit your worst hitter 9th. 

There is no conceivable way Castro could get a hit here. 

4 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

I can’t decide if Tucker fucked himself by waiting to sign an extension. He bet on himself and has come through with a very good season so far. But can the Astros give him more than they gave Yordan?

An excellent defender and a 30/30 guy?

sure 

Am I the only one who thought that was a base hit as it blooped over the 1Bman's head?

damn...

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