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Shit goin' down in the Chess world. Cheating.


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3 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

Do any of you speak English?  I have no idea what most of the last 5-6 posts are saying. I’m a magic playing, Star Wars underwear wearing, comic book reading engineer and y’all are making me feel better about myself. 

I assume it's something like analytics arguments that go on in all sports.

One side saying analytics show the one guy clearly cheated.

Other side saying the analytics are being used wrong.

End of the day all of them are nerds.

Edited by Captain Obvious
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18 hours ago, Mole said:

Right after the part where Hikaru repeats himself 4 times in rapid succession.

That's how his mind works lol he pre-moves then takes it off then grabs the piece and puts it down. Then moves it but didn't let it go, then let's it go and double clicks it for no reason.

Timeline:

Magnus and Nepo express concern for adding Hans to St Louis because he cheats.

St. Louis didn't take them seriously and didn't do much to detect devices.

Magnus loses to Hans and feels he acted and played unnaturally, resigns from the tournament.

St. Louis decides to increase anti cheat measures.

Magnus actually reads people and incorporates game theory into his chess. So it's actually pretty likely he is right and something is going on.

 

 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Zeus said:

Magnus actually reads people and incorporates game theory into his chess. So it's actually pretty likely he is right and something is going on.

Pretty likely he is right because of his ability to read people and incorporation of “game theory?”   He is not a wizard, just a really good chess player.  Being good at chess doesn’t make him a mind reader or above typical human bias.  In what other sport would the accusation from the losing player that their opponent cheated be taken seriously if they had no evidence to offer other than their intuition?  

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4 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

Do any of you speak English?  I have no idea what most of the last 5-6 posts are saying. I’m a magic playing, Star Wars underwear wearing, comic book reading engineer and y’all are making me feel better about myself. 

Rather than toying with playing card-based witchcraft, some of us prefer to keep up with latest in Bluetooth-enabled vibrating anal bead designs; different strokes for different folks.

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16 hours ago, axiom of foundation said:

Pretty likely he is right because of his ability to read people and incorporation of “game theory?”   He is not a wizard, just a really good chess player.  Being good at chess doesn’t make him a mind reader or above typical human bias.  In what other sport would the accusation from the losing player that their opponent cheated be taken seriously if they had no evidence to offer other than their intuition?  

Probably just a coincidence his coach has been busted cheating multiple times too. 

The statistical evidence is pretty damning, he's played 4x more 90-100 perfect stockfish games than the world champion in the past two years. 

Fabi even said the scanners they used were $30 metal detectors from Amazon that could maybe pick up a gun but not a smaller device somewhere. 

It's a cool story, young American stuns the world with sudden meteoric rise, but it doesn't pass the smell test. More evidence will stack up and he won't be beating super GMs if they make him go though an airport scanner first.

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19 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

Do any of you speak English?  I have no idea what most of the last 5-6 posts are saying. I’m a magic playing, Star Wars underwear wearing, comic book reading engineer and y’all are making me feel better about myself. 

Chess is a patrician sport, you should get into it! Costs way less than kids figures and cruddy nu-MTG cards. 

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1 hour ago, Zeus said:

Probably just a coincidence his coach has been busted cheating multiple times too. 

The statistical evidence is pretty damning, he's played 4x more 90-100 perfect stockfish games than the world champion in the past two years. 

Fabi even said the scanners they used were $30 metal detectors from Amazon that could maybe pick up a gun but not a smaller device somewhere. 

It's a cool story, young American stuns the world with sudden meteoric rise, but it doesn't pass the smell test. More evidence will stack up and he won't be beating super GMs if they make him go though an airport scanner first.

He hasn’t worked with Dlugy (the coach who cheated online) in a few years.  The statistical analysis given as evidence that he cheated wasn’t done by actual statisticians.  It was done by chess players with a youtube account.  Ken Regan, an actual statistician who is considered the one of the top chess cheating detection experts in the world, analyzed all of Hans OTB games since 2020 and found no evidence of cheating.  

The supposed 100% engine correlation games are not 100% latest addition stockfish correlated.  The non statistician chess player that did the correlation search in Chesssbase selected a net of 50 engines and editions, and if any move correlated to that wide net it was considered an engine correlated move. Chessbase claims that metric is not useful for catching cheating for obvious reasons.  The better method is average centipawn loss, which I’ve given above for all of the so called 100% games.  Again, nothing about them is suspicious when evaluated against the level of players and number of games played. 
 

Also, Hans played 3x as many games over the last two years than Magnus.  The number of games with the high engine correlation as a percentage of games played is the same between the two players.  Magnus is a higher rated player, but Hans played much weaker opponents than Magnus and it is easier to score higher games against weaker opponents.  So the outlier scores fall in line with what is expected. 
 

When the professional chess cheating detection experts look at the OTB games, they find no evidence of cheating.   But when anyone with an internet connection and youtube account post some useless correlation for clicks, it gets discussed and reposted like wildfire.  The statisticians and other folks who actually know what they are doing have already debunked the widely circulated meaningless correlations, but they continue to be repeated as fact.  
 

As for the game that Magnus lost, there is nothing special about it. Magnus played below his level, which has been confirmed by his peers and detailed engine analysis, and he lost.  It happens. 

Edited by axiom of foundation
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This sure seems to be the all-too-common situation of a bunch of know-nothings attacking an unlikable person online based on absolutely nothing but good old fashioned ladies-in-the-parlor style gossiping.  If we're going to base any of this on character analysis, Magnus is a known asshole as well.  I don't think that determining whether someone is cheating in a sport dominated by people with ASD Level 1 should be based on their personality quirks, but I'm no Camus. 

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3 hours ago, axiom of foundation said:

He hasn’t worked with Dlugy (the coach who cheated online) in a few years.  The statistical analysis given as evidence that he cheated wasn’t done by actual statisticians.  It was done by chess players with a youtube account.  Ken Regan, an actual statistician who is considered the one of the top chess cheating detection experts in the world, analyzed all of Hans OTB games since 2020 and found no evidence of cheating.  

The supposed 100% engine correlation games are not 100% latest addition stockfish correlated.  The non statistician chess player that did the correlation search in Chesssbase selected a net of 50 engines and editions, and if any move correlated to that wide net it was considered an engine correlated move. Chessbase claims that metric is not useful for catching cheating for obvious reasons.  The better method is average centipawn loss, which I’ve given above for all of the so called 100% games.  Again, nothing about them is suspicious when evaluated against the level of players and number of games played. 
 

Also, Hans played 3x as many games over the last two years than Magnus.  The number of games with the high engine correlation as a percentage of games played is the same between the two players.  Magnus is a higher rated player, but Hans played much weaker opponents than Magnus and it is easier to score higher games against weaker opponents.  So the outlier scores fall in line with what is expected. 
 

When the professional chess cheating detection experts look at the OTB games, they find no evidence of cheating.   But when anyone with an internet connection and youtube account post some useless correlation for clicks, it gets discussed and reposted like wildfire.  The statisticians and other folks who actually know what they are doing have already debunked the widely circulated meaningless correlations, but they continue to be repeated as fact.  
 

As for the game that Magnus lost, there is nothing special about it. Magnus played below his level, which has been confirmed by his peers and detailed engine analysis, and he lost.  It happens. 

Nice try, Hans.

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12 hours ago, trauma babe said:

The Chess.com Hans Report

Oof this kid. Some of the email exchanges are painful to read.

(It's 72 pages, but the tl;dr is that there's no concrete OTB evidence he cheated, but he cheated online a lot more than he confessed to, and his OTB play needs closer look)

Article about the report: 

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/oct/04/hans-niemann-chess-com-cheating-investigation-magnus-carlsen

 

Quote

Hans Niemann probably cheated in more than 100 chess games, investigation finds

Chess.com investigation contradicts Niemann’s denials

American likely cheated in more than 100 games, probe says

Bryan Armen Graham

@bryanagraham

Tue 4 Oct 2022 18.52 EDT

The latest bombshell in the scandal that has rocked the chess world to its foundation dropped on Tuesday when an investigation into the games of Hans Niemann found the American grandmaster has cheated far more frequently than previously disclosed.

The 72-page report, conducted by Chess.com and initially reviewed by the Wall Street Journal, found that Niemann “likely received illegal assistance in more than 100 online games” as recently as 2020, including in events where prize money was at stake.

The suspicions around Niemann, a 19-year-old who has made a meteoric ascent into the world’s top 50 over the past four years, were initially amplified last month when the world champion Magnus Carlsen first suggested, then outright declared, the American was winning through illegitimate means.

Niemann has mounted a vigorous denial of the allegations, though he did confess to violating the rules of fair play at least twice in the past by using the assistance of chess engines: first as a 12-year-old in an online tournament, and then as a 16-year-old playing unrated games while streaming.

But the Chess.com report, which relied on cheating-detection tools including a comparison of a player’s moves to those recommended by powerful supercomputers, has offered compelling data-driven evidence that dramatically contradicts those statements. The investigation made no conclusions regarding Niemann’s over-the-board games, but did flag contests from six of his stronger in-person events, stating they “merit further investigation based on the data”.

The full investigation, which was made public on Tuesday evening, stated that Niemann privately confessed to the allegations, and that he was subsequently banned from for a period of time from Chess.com, the world’s most popular chess platform.

The scandal erupted in September when Niemann beat Carlsen while playing with the black pieces at the $500,000 (£433,000) Sinquefield Cup in St Louis, ending the current world champion’s 53-game unbeaten streak in classical over-the-board games. The shocking defeat and Carlsen’s withdrawal ignited a maelstrom of comments and allegations that Niemann was cheating including from Hikaru Nakamura, the American grandmaster once ranked No 2 in the world.

Unsatisfied by Niemann’s explanation that he had somehow guessed what opening the Norwegian would play, Carlsen abruptly withdrew from the tournament, a virtually unprecedented decision for a sitting world champion that was interpreted as an act of protest. “If I speak I am in big trouble,” Carlsen tweeted, making a strong allusion to impropriety on his opponent’s side.

The controversy redoubled two weeks later when Carlsen and Niemann met again in the sixth round of the online Julius Baer Generation Cup and the world No 1 sensationally resignedafter making just one move. Carlsen finally clarified his cryptic allusions with an official statement one week after, saying he was unwilling to “play against people that have cheated repeatedly in the past” and that he believed Niemann had cheated “more than he has admitted”.

“When Niemann was invited last minute to the 2022 Sinquefield Cup, I strongly considered withdrawing prior to the event,” Carlsen said. “I ultimately chose to play. I believe that Niemann has cheated more – and more recently – than he has publicly admitted.

“His over-the-board progress has been unusual, and throughout our game in the Sinquefield Cup I had the impression that he wasn’t tense or even fully concentrating on the game in critical positions, while outplaying me as black in a way I only think a handful of players can do. This game contributed to changing my perspective.”

The Chess.com report backed up Carlsen’s assessment of Niemann’s uncommonly rapid climb up Fide’s world ratings – a gain of 350 Elo points in four years and an astonishing surge from 2,500 to 2,600 in just three months – describing his rise as “statistically extraordinary” while stopping short of concluding that he’s cheated in any over-the-board games.

“Outside his online play, Hans is the fastest rising top player in Classical [over-the-board] chess in modern history,” the report said. “Looking purely at rating, Hans should be classified as a member of this group of top young players. While we don’t doubt that Hans is a talented player, we note that his results are statistically extraordinary.”

The report further explains the methodology behind Chess.com’s cheat-detection tools, which include: “analytics that compare moves to those recommended by chess engines; studies of a player’s past performance and strength profile; monitoring behavior such as players opening up other browsers while playing; and input from grandmaster fair play analysts”. Notably, it revealed that “dozens” of grandmasters have been caught cheating on Chess.com, including some of the world’s current top 100, all of whom confessed.

It also addressed Niemann’s curious postgame analysis of his stunning win over Carlsen in St Louis, which top players at the time characterised as “at odds with the level of preparation that Hans claimed was at play in the game and the level of analysis needed to defeat the World Chess Champion”.

Niemann has steadfastly denied any wrongdoing at any point in recent years, stating one day after his win over Carlsen at the Sinquefield Cup that he’d only cheated twice in the past.

“I cheated on random games on Chess.com,” Niemann said. “I was confronted. I confessed. And this is the single biggest mistake of my life. And I am completely ashamed. I am telling the world because I don’t want misrepresentations and I don’t want rumours. I have never cheated in an over-the-board game. And other than when I was 12 years old I have never cheated in a tournament with prize money.”

Fide, the sport’s world governing body, issued a statement last week saying it will convene its own three-person panel to look into the allegations.

“The focus of the investigation would be twofold: checking the world champion’s claims of alleged cheating by Niemann and Niemann’s self-statement regarding online cheating,” it read. “The panel will ensure a fair ruling, protecting the rights of both parties during the investigation.”

 

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So we know the kid cheated repeatedly online and we know his meteoric rise seems highly suspect, but now nobody really has a way to go about confirming or denying he cheats in person?

Lets just put a mandatory delay on all major matches, so the moves can’t be entered in real time and then build a faraday cage around wherever is being used for the big matches and move on.

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I'm failing to see a smoking gun here, although I just read the summary and not the report itself (ain't nobody got time for that).  We already knew he cheated on chess.com, he's admitted it, including in 2020 when he was 16.  So this report verifies what he's already admitted to, and then goes on to do exactly what Magnus did, speculate that he probably cheated OTB as well because they think he's odd and doesn't follow "normal" chess behavior.   Once again, Camus to the courtesy phone.  Carlsen was/is also a young genius with a shitty personality who has dominated in a manner not in line with expectations.  One could just as easily suspect something fishy about him based on such nonsense.

My best guess is that the Europeans involved just don't like that a Yank is named Hans.  I guess the ultimate lesson here is to never fuck up even a little bit, not even as a child, because everything is documented and public now it will be held against you for the rest of your life.  I don't envy young people these days.

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28 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

I'm failing to see a smoking gun here, although I just read the summary and not the report itself (ain't nobody got time for that).  We already knew he cheated on chess.com, he's admitted it, including in 2020 when he was 16.  So this report verifies what he's already admitted to, and then goes on to do exactly what Magnus did, speculate that he probably cheated OTB as well because they think he's odd and doesn't follow "normal" chess behavior.   Once again, Camus to the courtesy phone.  Carlsen was/is also a young genius with a shitty personality who has dominated in a manner not in line with expectations.  One could just as easily suspect something fishy about him based on such nonsense.

My best guess is that the Europeans involved just don't like that a Yank is named Hans.  I guess the ultimate lesson here is to never fuck up even a little bit, not even as a child, because everything is documented and public now it will be held against you for the rest of your life.  I don't envy young people these days.

He admitted to cheating once or twice, the investigation found that he probably cheated in over 100 online matches.

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I took his confession to mean that he cheated at two different periods of time, once at age 12 and once at age 16, where he cheated on a number of matches.  It would be really weird to go to the trouble of setting up the system of cheating and only cheat on one match at each of those two instances.  I may be misunderstanding something, though.

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On 10/6/2022 at 2:26 PM, Samson's Wig said:

Carlsen was/is also a young genius with a shitty personality who has dominated in a manner not in line with expectations.  One could just as easily suspect something fishy about him based on such nonsense.

The argument about Hans’ ascent is that:

1. It was late relatively speaking. According to the report, elite chess players reach GM at a younger age than Hans did. They essentially claim that if you haven’t made GM by early teenage years, you won’t reach the very top.

2. It was uneven, with several plateaus. According to the report, other rising elite players show a smoother ascent without the plateaus.

I don’t know enough about chess to assess the veracity of the claim, but it doesn’t really align with other fields. Many/most elite athletes were dominant as youngsters, but there are many examples of late bloomers. I work in music; there are many elite musicians who were child prodigies, but there are also many late bloomers working at a high level.

It makes sense to me that if Hans became as obsessed as he claimed and worked as hard as he says, he may have made the leap. I don’t see why chess would be so different than any other field to make such growth so implausible.

That said, there’s a lot of smoke and now it looks like they’re scanning for anal beads, so what do I know.

 

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24 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

I think the only mental gymnastics happen when crucifying a guy when there is still zero hard evidence he did anything wrong.   If that is ever presented, sure.  But only one side of this is jumping to conclusions.

 

image.gif.1bd18e601c0033c63b4cde1c84ee370a.gif

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On 10/8/2022 at 12:07 PM, Dbeasy said:

It’s amazing reading the mental gymnastics some of you are going thru to deny the obvious that the guy is cheating his ass off. 

Looks like you were wrong

On 10/8/2022 at 1:39 PM, Samson's Wig said:

I think the only mental gymnastics happen when crucifying a guy when there is still zero hard evidence he did anything wrong.   If that is ever presented, sure.  But only one side of this is jumping to conclusions.

Office Space Idea GIF

Looks like you were right.

Poor guy had the entire world thinking he put things in his butt to cheat.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66647445

Quote

 

A Norwegian world champion and the US prodigy who unexpectedly beat him have resolved a year-long cheating row that rattled the world of chess.

Magnus Carlsen accused Hans Niemann of foul play after he lost in the Sinquefield Cup in September.

Mr Niemann sued his rival, the online platform Chess.com, and a second grandmaster for defamation.

Chess.com now says the row is settled, Mr Niemann's account is restored and Mr Carlsen accepts there was no cheating.

 

 

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On 9/28/2022 at 5:17 PM, axiom of foundation said:

Pretty likely he is right because of his ability to read people and incorporation of “game theory?”   He is not a wizard, just a really good chess player.  Being good at chess doesn’t make him a mind reader or above typical human bias.  In what other sport would the accusation from the losing player that their opponent cheated be taken seriously if they had no evidence to offer other than their intuition?  

Hindsight being 20/20, but this is a pretty prescient take. I think the laymen (which is everyone on these 3 pages) have the appeal to authority fallacy going on where we hear that Magnus is a prodigy and genius, which means he's probably right about everything, and thus everyone anchored on this guys bad sportsmanship disguised as chess knowledge we can't understand.

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9 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

I think what many failed to remember is that Magnus is notorious for having the personality of a rotten twat-sandwich on top of having a great chess mind.

Yup.

Anyone who keeps up with the chess world knows Magnus, like almost all the top guys, has serious arrogant douchebag personality traits.  I don't keep up with the game all that closely and I've seen him smash shit, mouth off, and just generally act like a spoiled cunt.

Magnus, whether he's bored or just wants a challenge or wants to increase his chances of avoiding draws, often times plays bullshit opening lines.  Usually this works out in his favor.  These top chess nerds know all the main lines to all the openings super deep.  So if you go into those lines the games get stale and it is hard to gain an advantage that will lead to a win.  

In that game against Hans, he played a weak/obscure opening line as Black.  I'm sure he figured, this idiot is hundreds of points lower rated than me, he won't expect this, I'll get an edge/he'll fuck up, and I'll win.  Instead, Hans handled it, Magnus played poorly (normally Magnus has above 96% accuracy in his moves, that game he was in the 80s), and Hans won.  

I'm absolutely certain Magnus was furious just because that's who he is.  He hates losing.  But I doubt it would have turned into anything except than Hans decided to go run his mouth and say shit like "The chess speaks for itself" and "Magnus should feel terrible losing to an idiot like me."  Then, magically, Magnus is pulling out of the tournament and insinuating Hans is a cheat.

Hans did get up to some shenanigans online, but that's a far cry from cheating over the board.  His rating has dipped recently to where he's around 2660, but that's pretty much directly related to Magnus tarring his name.  Hans stopped getting invited to the major events which are closed/invite only.  Instead, he's been running an insane amount of open tourneys.  Like, he's been playing an unhealthy amount of tournaments.  Any highly rated player is going to lose rating playing that many open tourneys.  However, it's clear he's close to Super GM strength.  He just needs to work on his consistency and not blowing up.  He's like an All-Pro RB that has a fumbling problem. 

There's no evidence whatsoever he has cheated OTB.  He absolutely didn't cheat in that game against Magnus.  Definitely didn't deserve to catch all the heat he did.  Poor guy is only 20.  Awkward nerd dedicates himself totally to chess, is playing well, beats the world #1, and then that guy tells the entire world you're a cheat and tries to get you blackballed.  I can't imagine the stress he was under.

He's back on Chess.com as of the past day or so.  Had some fun games, blundered and lost to a much lower rated player, but also one where he beat Daniel Naroditsky (one of the best bullet/blitz chess players in the world).

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7 minutes ago, SpiralOut said:

Yup.

Anyone who keeps up with the chess world knows Magnus, like almost all the top guys, has serious arrogant douchebag personality traits.  I don't keep up with the game all that closely and I've seen him smash shit, mouth off, and just generally act like a spoiled cunt.

Magnus, whether he's bored or just wants a challenge or wants to increase his chances of avoiding draws, often times plays bullshit opening lines.  Usually this works out in his favor.  These top chess nerds know all the main lines to all the openings super deep.  So if you go into those lines the games get stale and it is hard to gain an advantage that will lead to a win.  

In that game against Hans, he played a weak/obscure opening line as Black.  I'm sure he figured, this idiot is hundreds of points lower rated than me, he won't expect this, I'll get an edge/he'll fuck up, and I'll win.  Instead, Hans handled it, Magnus played poorly (normally Magnus has above 96% accuracy in his moves, that game he was in the 80s), and Hans won.  

I'm absolutely certain Magnus was furious just because that's who he is.  He hates losing.  But I doubt it would have turned into anything except than Hans decided to go run his mouth and say shit like "The chess speaks for itself" and "Magnus should feel terrible losing to an idiot like me."  Then, magically, Magnus is pulling out of the tournament and insinuating Hans is a cheat.

Hans did get up to some shenanigans online, but that's a far cry from cheating over the board.  His rating has dipped recently to where he's around 2660, but that's pretty much directly related to Magnus tarring his name.  Hans stopped getting invited to the major events which are closed/invite only.  Instead, he's been running an insane amount of open tourneys.  Like, he's been playing an unhealthy amount of tournaments.  Any highly rated player is going to lose rating playing that many open tourneys.  However, it's clear he's close to Super GM strength.  He just needs to work on his consistency and not blowing up.  He's like an All-Pro RB that has a fumbling problem. 

There's no evidence whatsoever he has cheated OTB.  He absolutely didn't cheat in that game against Magnus.  Definitely didn't deserve to catch all the heat he did.  Poor guy is only 20.  Awkward nerd dedicates himself totally to chess, is playing well, beats the world #1, and then that guy tells the entire world you're a cheat and tries to get you blackballed.  I can't imagine the stress he was under.

He's back on Chess.com as of the past day or so.  Had some fun games, blundered and lost to a much lower rated player, but also one where he beat Daniel Naroditsky (one of the best bullet/blitz chess players in the world).

i beg to differ

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4 hours ago, animaltobacco11 said:

Looks like you were wrong

Looks like you were right.

Poor guy had the entire world thinking he put things in his butt to cheat.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66647445

 

Ha, just because a legal dispute was settled does not mean he wasn’t cheating. The accuser likely backed off because of legal liability, unless you have some info I haven’t seen. 

He already was caught cheating before. He’s been caught lying about other things, and yet people continue to give a proven cheat and fraudster the benefit of the doubt. It’s why these people exist. They always have easy marks to go after. 

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