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2018 MLB Thread


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2 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=665489#/career/R/hitting/2018/ALL

Batting .415 in 150 PA in AA.  

single, 2 doubles, and a homer this afternoon

I don't know how Toronto fans can stand the anticipation...

 

Do the Jays not think they are in the wildcard hunt or what? Kendrys Morales is slashing .154/.250/.275, which I’m pretty sure you and I could do. Despite being 4-9 in their last 13 Toronto could easily be back in the WC hunt with one good week. That’s not to mention all of the Vladdy Jr swag they would sell, plus tickets. A case like this just makes less than zero sense. Bring the kid up already. 

Edited by Goo Punch
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Holy shit, this is great, from Eno Sarris theathletic.   Not sure if everything is going to paste...

 

Quote

I’ve been talking to Joey Votto for a while, and sometimes I figure we’ll just have a normal conversation about his back, or some little quirk in his production, and my understanding of baseball won’t shift fundamentally. That hasn’t happened yet.

It definitely didn’t happen when we talked this week. Yes, much of this links up with other conversations we’ve had over the years, but there’s one part — about plate coverage — that puts a lot of his revelations from the past in a new light. Rather than highlighting that part and writing it up separately, I wanted to keep the context that the rest of our conversation provides.

So, yes, Joey Votto said something funny and mind-blowing. He also talked a lot about his different choices in the past and why he made those choices. So here it is all together, in roughly the order in which we talked about these topics this week. Hopefully, it helps you better understand how the best first baseman of our time sees the game.

Eno Sarris: One thing that’s interesting is that, after a four-year stretch where you were at your worst with your glove, you’ve had your best two-year stretch the last two years, by some defensive metrics.

VottoD18.png

We talked once about the different physical things you have had to do to improve your defense, but what about the mental? Have you changed your approach, your positioning? 

Joey Votto: Yes, positioning is huge. It requires effort, you have to really play harder. You have to play farther from the base in order to be able to cover parts of the infield that lead to hits, but then you also have to be able to get back to the base.

Back to hitting. Looking at your early season splits, since you’ve said you don’t get your good swing until May—I know that these sort of things aren’t supposed to be meaningful for players, but it still looks like you almost have a little trouble lifting the ball early in seasons. Your fly ball rate maps with your rolling offense. Is that what you mean, that you don’t get your power swing until May?

I had a double in Milwaukee that ended a two-month stretch where I did not hit any sort of long line drive or balls over the fence. I do feel like there’s been some progress. I do sacrifice a little bit at the very beginning of the season, trying to find my swing and trying to find my timing. It’s not intentional, like I’m not intentionally trying to give up at-bats, but I do recognize that over the last few years it’s been a hard process.

Votto's 15-game rolling offense (wOBA, blue) maps well against his 15-game rolling fly ball rate (FB%, red).
 
Votto’s 15-game rolling offense (wOBA, blue) maps well against his 15-game rolling fly ball rate (FB%, red). Both generally improve as the season goes on.

“I’m trying to get that good feeling,” maybe more than worrying about the outcome of that single at-bat?

There’s three parts to hitting. There’s the skill of reading the ball, then there’s also the skill of discerning balls and strikes, but there’s also being able to swing with a powerful stroke, for line drives and home runs. If I have 60 feet and 6 inches, I feel like I’m working in a really small window of adjustments —

Which you are —

Which I am — to be able to create exactly what I want with the ball so that I can do that as often as possible over the next sixth months of the season.

I was wondering if this sort of early-season work, if this was about physicality and your body or if it was more about approach and timing. As you get older, is it harder to get going?

No. It just takes more time. I still think I want every year to be a peak year. I’m stubborn, but I still think, This is what it’s going to take to get exactly what I want. For me, it’s taken longer each year than it has in previous years. But as long as I’m doing the essentials — making contact when I swing, swinging at strikes, and making sure my direction is right.

I made a sacrifice with my exit velocity over the years.

Joey Votto’s Exit Velo    
Year Average EV Percentile
2015 89.6 78
2016 89.6 73
2017 87.6 61
2018 90.3 69

I have normal exit velocity and that’s a product of my approach. Getting older, but also being more balanced through the strike zone.

You’re swinging at more strikes

I’m swinging at more strikes.

Over the years, Votto has swung at pitches outside of the zone less (red, O-Swing%) and has also swung at pitches inside the zone more (blue, Z-Swing%)
 
Over the years, Votto has swung at pitches outside of the zone less (red, O-Swing%) and at pitches inside the zone more (blue, Z-Swing%).

I liken my style to José Altuve. Look at his exit velocity and it’s very balanced — he’s 85-90 mph in virtually every part of the strike zone. You look at Mike Trout and it’s anywhere from 95-105 in good parts of the strike zone, and there are a couple — not holes, but, softer parts of the strike zone.

Courtesy BaseballSavant and Statcast, here are the 2017 exit velocity heat maps for Mike Trout, Joey Votto, and Jose Altuve. Note the steady nature of the heat maps for Votto and Altuve.
 
Courtesy BaseballSavant, here are the 2017 exit velo heat maps for Trout, Votto and Altuve. Note the steady nature of the heat maps for Votto and Altuve.

It almost sounds like you have different swings. Do you have different swings to deal with different parts of the zone?

I’m not sure. I’ve definitely adjusted my swing over the years. I can’t use my old swing, the one I used to use.

I was more upright and I was just trying to hit for power.

I was a better low ball hitter, but now I’m a better high ball hitter. I used to hit balls on the outer part of the plate better than I do now.

Votto's batting average on balls in play was more concentrated on low and away in 2012 (left) and more diffuse -- especially high in the zone -- in 2017 (right).
 
Votto’s batting average on balls in play was more concentrated on low and away in 2012 (left) and more diffuse — especially high in the zone — in 2017 (right). Source: FanGraphs.

It’s a reaction to how you were being pitched, too, right?

Yeah.

You used to be busted inside a lot and you tried different ways to deal with that until you showed them you could handle it.

Yeah.

In 2015, Votto was busted inside with cutters and four-seamers more often. He responded by busting out.
 
In 2015, Votto was busted inside with cutters and four-seamers more often. He responded by busting out. Source: FanGraphs.

So much of exit velocity and launch angle comes from plate control — which pitches you swing at — and you’re obviously elite at that. But you’re swinging at more strikes and striking out a little bit more this year. Are you swinging at bad strikes, at too many strikes?

I want my scouting report to read: very balanced. I never ever want to let on that part of the strike zone is pitchable. I’ll give up something to mask weaknesses, whether it’s connected with away, up and in or whatever.

[Laughing] I asked you a question about that once! You said you didn’t try to muck with your scouting reports intentionally, that you weren’t trying to set up or alter your scouting reports early in the season. I guess this is a little different. You’re saying, ‘I can do that.’

It’s a little bit different. All I want to tell them is I can handle anything. I want to show pitchers I can do anything.

Batter Hot Zones
Daniel Murphy 40
Salvador Pérez 40
Robinson Canó 39
Carlos Gonzélez 38
J.D. Martinez 38
Eduardo Núñez 37
José Altuve 37
Manny Machado 37
Marcell Ozuna 37
Brandon Crawford 36
Buster Posey 36
Adam Jones 35
Adrián González 35
Christian Yelich 35
Corey Seager 35
Freddie Freeman 35
Justin Turner 35
Khris Davis 35
Matt Kemp 35
Mookie Betts 35

[This table shows how many ‘hot zones’ a hitter has within the strike zone from 2016-2018. Minimum 1000 Plate Appearances, 64 maximum possible zones. A zone is a three inches by three inches square, and it’s designated as ‘hot’ if the hitter produces an above-average weighted on base average per pitch in that zone (.115 wOBA). Joey Votto (26) is tied for 95th with batters like Anthony Rendon, Kyle Seager, Miguel Cabrera and Starling Marte. Note José Altuve’s ranking.]

Here's Joey Votto's wOBA per pitch heat map since 2016, where you can see his 26 hot zones.
 
Here’s Joey Votto’s wOBA per pitch heat map since 2016, where you can see his 26 hot zones.

You want to show that you can handle anything in the box. If you did show a weakness, they’d go straight to that constantly.

They’d exploit it. And I don’t want that.

Has anything changed about how you deal with big velocity pitchers over the years? 

I stopped caring about velocity a few years ago. I don’t care what number shows up. the only thing I care about — and this is probably sharing too much — the only thing I care about is how I perceive the velocity.

How you see it coming out, how easy it is to track. Would it change if I asked you about high perceived velocities? Would you shorten up? 

It’s more about I never want to be exposed. So the guys that have better fastballs, that’s an adjustment that I have to make. But the league has changed, I think it’s a fastball league now in some ways. And I’ve changed. Things are different now.

Especially as a left-handed hitter, the strike zone has changed. It was quite a bit longer, and balls on the other side of the plate were called more often.

ZoneLefties-2.png

So that’s why you first changed your swing, when you had that first big a-hah moment, that you had to be able to take that low and outside pitch and drive it the other way. 

Yes, especially as a lefty.

And now there are strikes on the hands more often. And you’ve been talking about what to do with that inside pitch and been choking up more

Yeah, those high fastballs and those close-and-in fastballs have been called more. Also because I’m getting older and slower. Almost for sure that reason, without a doubt.

 

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7 hours ago, dbecks said:

J.D. Martinez since the start of 2017:

 

161 games played

114 runs scored

58 home runs

142 runs batted in

.315/.382/.683

405 total bases

It all started when HG traded him in the shaggy fantasy league. JD needs to send HG monthly checks for that juju.

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Cardinals reliever Jordan Hicks had already established himself as the Majors' new preeminent flame-thrower before he stepped on the mound Sunday. Then Hicks took a step forward into the radar-gun record books.

In the Cardinals' 5-1 win over the Phillies, Hicks fired the five fastest pitches of the 2018 season during his ninth-inning matchup with Phillies outfielder Odubel Herrera, including two pitches that reached an even 105 mph, per Statcast, en route to a strikeout (though Herrera would reach first on a dropped third strike). In doing so, Hicks joined Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman as the only pitchers to hit 105 mph since pitch tracking began in 2008.

Hicks' five pitches officially were clocked at 104.2, 105, 104.3, 105 and 103.7 mph. Chapman had previously thrown the fastest pitch of 2018 on May 8, when he hit Red Sox outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. with a 103.3-mph pitch. Hicks is now just the fourth pitcher to even reach 104 mph in pitch-tracking history, joining Chapman, Mauricio Cabrera(2016) and Neftali Feliz (2010).

After Sunday's incredible performance, Hicks has now logged eight of the season's 10 fastest pitches, as well as 13 of the 20 fastest.

 

Damn. 

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20 hours ago, texifornia said:

A's are about to finish up a four-game sweep of the Jays in Toronto off the back of taking a series at Fenway. The AL West is just evil this year.

I was laughed at on the old board when I mentioned the AL West would be a lot tougher this year.  Astros are still the best in the division but it won't be wrapped up by mid June this year.

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3 hours ago, shnsajax said:

What’s the point of calling him up before the Super 2 deadline? Could cost them an extra $10+ million in a couple of years.

Yup. It's shitty and the service time fuckery needs to get fixed but it would be mismanagement to call him up before the Super 2 deadline.

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They should at least promote him to AAA


I can’t speak to this case, but there are times where it’s more challenging to be in AA vs AAA and also from a simple roster management stand point. Also you might have better coaches in AA vs AAA.
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They should at least promote him to AAA


I can’t speak to this case, but there are times where it’s more challenging to be in AA vs AAA and also from a simple roster management stand point. Also you might have better coaches in AA vs AAA.
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