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Posted
On 10/28/2025 at 5:14 AM, HenryJames said:

 

There is a paranoia level of secrecy in working on these things.  The shell company thing is common for the land purchase and even some early permitting.  I hadn't heard of NDAs for elected officials, but it is standard for anybody else involved.  My company even had a code word for our client, to avoid accidentally saying their name in front of others who weren't under NDA.  I remember after my company had filed some paperwork for the shell company, I would get calls from tech magazines asking for confirmation on the project.  (They all knew which shell company equated to what brand name, because of past projects.) But, at some point, the client makes a big announcement about how much they are investing, how many jobs they are creating, and the what community programs they starting.  We still can't say shit without them saying it first, but it does loosen things up a bit. 

Posted
3 hours ago, HenryJames said:

 

his last comment - "but the power!" is extremely apropos. There's been some solid work and writing around energy usage per million tokens consumed, and agents can routinely burn thousands to tens of thousands per simple "hello/good morning" responses. Even the most efficient setups consume a couple of kWhrs to process a million tokens. There's a hideous amount of power being consumed to do really no actual work aside from running up NVDA's market cap

 

note: "token" is a model-specific metric that refers to the size of each block of input given to a LLM, typically 4-6 characters including punctuation and spaces per token.

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Posted
59 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Jobs they are creating? How many people do they need to hire to maintain a data center? 100?

I would guess that 100 people is probably about right for midsize (100MW to 200 MW) data center, depending on the company. Physical security is the biggest job category.  You also have IT security, IT programmers, folks that maintain cooling and electrical systems.  At a large data center, just pulling replacing old disks might be a 24x7 job.  They may also have other functions colocated.   

The client will also take credit for temporary construction jobs.  

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Posted
43 minutes ago, Captainant said:

his last comment - "but the power!" is extremely apropos. There's been some solid work and writing around energy usage per million tokens consumed, and agents can routinely burn thousands to tens of thousands per simple "hello/good morning" responses. Even the most efficient setups consume a couple of kWhrs to process a million tokens. There's a hideous amount of power being consumed to do really no actual work aside from running up NVDA's market cap

 

note: "token" is a model-specific metric that refers to the size of each block of input given to a LLM, typically 4-6 characters including punctuation and spaces per token.

I’ve never understood the need to talk to AI like it’s a person. Hello, thank you, etc. It’s just a tool. We should use it like one. 

Posted
20 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

I’ve never understood the need to talk to AI like it’s a person. Hello, thank you, etc. It’s just a tool. We should use it like one. 

In that case, congratulations on moving up the chain of attack when the T-1000 is let loose.... good luck! 

 

Posted

"Exclusive: OpenAI lays groundwork for juggernaut IPO at up to $1 trillion valuation"

Quote

Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has told some associates the company is aiming for a 2027 listing, the people said. But some advisers predict it could come even sooner, around late 2026.

https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-lays-groundwork-juggernaut-ipo-up-1-trillion-valuation-2025-10-29/

Now I am a stock market dummy.  A true 'just put it in an index fund and hope for the best' kind of person.  But the internet tells me plenty of very profitable companies took a long time to reach this valuation.

 

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Posted
1 minute ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

But the internet tells me plenty of very profitable companies took a long time to reach this valuation.

Dude.  Profits, PE ratios, all that shit?  Those are for woke losers.  It's all vibes, and only vibes these days.  Do you FEEL like it should be worth $1 trillion?  Then it IS worth $1 trillion!

Which is actually a true statement and thing, but embedded in that is the bubble.  Because profits and PE ratios are real things.  They exist, are empirical, and do not change (that is, your PE ratio last quarter is what it is, and your PE ratio next quarter is what it is, based on actual measurable metrics).  Feelings, on the other hand.....can go "poof."  Today, we feel like it's worth $1 trillion, and it is.  Tomorrow, we feel like it's worth $1 . . . and it is.  That's how you bubble, that's how you burst, and that's how you crash.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

"Exclusive: OpenAI lays groundwork for juggernaut IPO at up to $1 trillion valuation"

https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-lays-groundwork-juggernaut-ipo-up-1-trillion-valuation-2025-10-29/

Now I am a stock market dummy.  A true 'just put it in an index fund and hope for the best' kind of person.  But the internet tells me plenty of very profitable companies took a long time to reach this valuation.

 

Took a long time but now there are a handful. It's wild. nVidia @ $5T is an "obvious yea duh" moment in either direction; a hyperinflated bust waiting to happen or a steadfast, best company in the world and positioned well for the next 10-15 years. I personally don't think we can determine which in hindsight, but I made a big, scary financial bet this morning on the former and put in a big short this AM eeeeeeeeeeeeeeekkkkkkkkk. happy halloween, this is scary because I could lose it all or make a million or two!

Edited by Vegas64
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Posted
2 hours ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

"Exclusive: OpenAI lays groundwork for juggernaut IPO at up to $1 trillion valuation"

https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-lays-groundwork-juggernaut-ipo-up-1-trillion-valuation-2025-10-29/

Now I am a stock market dummy.  A true 'just put it in an index fund and hope for the best' kind of person.  But the internet tells me plenty of very profitable companies took a long time to reach this valuation.

 

Oh boy, bring on the crash once this goes through.

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Posted

I laughed at this bullshit:

Quote

"An IPO is not our focus, so we could not possibly have set a date," an OpenAI spokesperson said. "We are building a durable business and advancing our mission so everyone benefits from AGI."

 

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Posted

What's interesting is the AI Bubble and how it's going to impact not just us, but the entire world, when it pops. And further, the China cold war:

US stocks now make up ~56% of the world’s public market cap; America’s Mag7 AI stocks in turn make up a third of the US market cap alone; and their AI infrastructure build-out alone is driving a ~third of all US economic growth.

So any ‘pop’ might rattle not just the US economy, but the world’s economy. It’d also hit a key pillar (US tech dominance) now balancing the world’s concerns about US political risk.

Second, an AI pop would have downstream impacts on other sectors like energy, where there are already countless billions in AI-related energy projects in the US alone.

And third, a pop would also shape US-China competition, which is already in turn shaping this century: Nvidia’s chips are now arguably America’s biggest source of leverage.

But the result of that leverage is the two rivals are now bifurcating into two parallel, algorithmic blocs built on parallel stacks and supply chains. So any AI pop — inevitably slowing US investments and therefore advances — could end up less like the global 2008 meltdown, and more specifically shifting our world’s centre of gravity even further east.

Posted
1 hour ago, Vegas64 said:

US stocks now make up ~56% of the world’s public market cap; America’s Mag7 AI stocks in turn make up a third of the US market cap alone; and their AI infrastructure build-out alone is driving a ~third of all US economic growth.

Not apples to apples to what I highlighted there, but Harvard economist Jason Furman estimates that 92% of the 2025Q1&2 GDP growth was around AI investment. (article

Quote

Technically, as Furman notes, investment in information-processing equipment and software was only 4% of U.S. GDP for the first half of 2025, yet it also accounted for fully 92% of GDP growth over that period.

 

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Posted
13 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Went to the physician this morning for my annual physical; and I saw this posted in the exam room.

What could possibly go wrong.

 

IMG_6674.thumb.jpeg.f48af63517b3c7befda8adf89b9815ce.jpeg

Dammit, you're making me do a "well actually" in defense of AI.  Which, by the way, IS a technology that has a place.  It's just not the miracle cure for everything.

AI transcription of meeting notes is really quite good.  We've used it for various boards and committees I'm on, and it's great.  We have accurate and detailed notes in our in-box right after the meeting.  No depending on faulty memories etc.

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Posted

Yeah my sister-in-law (ER doc) really likes the AI-assisted scribe app they’re currently testing. Feel bad for bad for actual scribes, but no complaints from the her or her colleagues. 

Posted
9 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

The takeaway point there:

Quote

The biggest lesson of the past two decades of Silicon Valley is that Meta, Amazon, and Google—and even the newer AI labs such as OpenAI—have remade our world and have become unfathomably rich for it, all while being mostly oblivious or uninterested in the fallout. They have chased growth and scale at all costs, and largely, they’ve won. The data-center build-out is the ultimate culmination of that chase: the pursuit of scale for scale itself.

The question is....what happens when they don't win.  When the music stops, and they don't have a chair to sit in?  Sure, the companies that have diverse enough interests will likely weather the storm.  But those that are all or mostly AI-dependent (see Nvidia)?  They're fucked.  And so we're fucked.

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Posted
Dammit, you're making me do a "well actually" in defense of AI.  Which, by the way, IS a technology that has a place.  It's just not the miracle cure for everything.
AI transcription of meeting notes is really quite good.  We've used it for various boards and committees I'm on, and it's great.  We have accurate and detailed notes in our in-box right after the meeting.  No depending on faulty memories etc.

One of my many reasons for opposing AI is the concern that it will eliminate an extremely high percentage of human jobs, at a scale significantly higher than any other technology in history. This is a very simple and obvious example of that.

Quick internet search shows there are roughly 100,000 medical scribes working in the U.S. They are mostly replaceable, and I would assume in 5 years, that number is significantly lower as EHR platforms roll out their AI packages.

We use scribes in our practice and I love working with them. They do far more than enter data into the chart. They are an extension of me that can perform elements of the exam, retrieve instruments, administer meds, take patients to get tests, translate Spanish, etc. Most of all, I just like working with them. They are my friends at work and they are warm towards our patients, providing friendly faces, extending empathy and kindness. You can replace many of their tasks with AI, but you cannot replace their humanity.

It’s that loss of humanity that bothers me the most, extended across the entire American and global economy. Even if my interaction with a barista is brief and uneventful, I still want to say hi and smile at another human from across the counter.
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Posted
3 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:


One of my many reasons for opposing AI is the concern that it will eliminate an extremely high percentage of human jobs, at a scale significantly higher than any other technology in history. This is a very simple and obvious example of that.

Quick internet search shows there are roughly 100,000 medical scribes working in the U.S. They are mostly replaceable, and I would assume in 5 years, that number is significantly lower as EHR platforms roll out their AI packages.

We use scribes in our practice and I love working with them. They do far more than enter data into the chart. They are an extension of me that can perform elements of the exam, retrieve instruments, administer meds, take patients to get tests, translate Spanish, etc. Most of all, I just like working with them. They are my friends at work and they are warm towards our patients, providing friendly faces, extending empathy and kindness. You can replace many of their tasks with AI, but you cannot replace their humanity.

It’s that loss of humanity that bothers me the most, extended across the entire American and global economy. Even if my interaction with a barista is brief and uneventful, I still want to say hi and smile at another human from across the counter.

You sound woke.

Human beings are obsolete.  Does that scribe bring profit to an oligarch?  Alternatively, will eliminating the cost of that scribe bring profit to an oligarch?  That's the only calculus that matters.

We have a choice of two shitty outcomes here.  Shitty outcome (1): AI succeeds, and eliminates most jobs except the most basic of manual labor.  Humans have neither any purpose nor any income.  OR shitty outcome (2): AI doesn't come close to delivering on its promise, the bubble pops, and it crashes the global economy that is propped up by just that foundation.

Pick your poison.  But you WILL be drinking poison.

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Posted
20 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:


One of my many reasons for opposing AI is the concern that it will eliminate an extremely high percentage of human jobs, at a scale significantly higher than any other technology in history. This is a very simple and obvious example of that.

Quick internet search shows there are roughly 100,000 medical scribes working in the U.S. They are mostly replaceable, and I would assume in 5 years, that number is significantly lower as EHR platforms roll out their AI packages.

We use scribes in our practice and I love working with them. They do far more than enter data into the chart. They are an extension of me that can perform elements of the exam, retrieve instruments, administer meds, take patients to get tests, translate Spanish, etc. Most of all, I just like working with them. They are my friends at work and they are warm towards our patients, providing friendly faces, extending empathy and kindness. You can replace many of their tasks with AI, but you cannot replace their humanity.

It’s that loss of humanity that bothers me the most, extended across the entire American and global economy. Even if my interaction with a barista is brief and uneventful, I still want to say hi and smile at another human from across the counter.

Yep, this exacerbates the "what do we do with the morons" problem.  And also the training of non-morons.  AFAIK, being a scribe is an introduction to medicine for prospective medical students.  As is an internship in a law office or engineering firm.  Their work isn't essential, but it's not useless either, and is invaluable to the trainee.

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Posted
31 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

We use scribes in our practice and I love working with them. They do far more than enter data into the chart. They are an extension of me that can perform elements of the exam, retrieve instruments, administer meds, take patients to get tests, translate Spanish, etc. Most of all, I just like working with them. They are my friends at work and they are warm towards our patients, providing friendly faces, extending empathy and kindness. You can replace many of their tasks with AI, but you cannot replace their humanity.

It’s that loss of humanity that bothers me the most, extended across the entire American and global economy. Even if my interaction with a barista is brief and uneventful, I still want to say hi and smile at another human from across the counter.

bro do you want shareholder returns or not you goddamn commie pinko 

Posted
On 10/29/2025 at 8:26 AM, Valmy77 said:

Jobs they are creating? How many people do they need to hire to maintain a data center? 100?

Not sure how many to maintain a data center.

But building those things put a lot of construction workers to work especially with other commercial projects drying up.

Companies that make electrical transformers, distribution panels, mechanical chillers and air handlers are going gangbusters. Those aren't quite as labor intensive as being on a construction site, but most manufacturers are domestic and can maintain or even raise employment that way.

 

Posted
8 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Yep, this exacerbates the "what do we do with the morons" problem.  And also the training of non-morons.  AFAIK, being a scribe is an introduction to medicine for prospective medical students.  As is an internship in a law office or engineering firm.  Their work isn't essential, but it's not useless either, and is invaluable to the trainee.

The end-around on that is the Elon-Thiel worldview: human beings have no inherent value.  We are either a source of revenue, or a cost center.  Either way, they don't care if we live or die, or are miserable beyond measure.  All that matters is whether your existence or elimination can yield them anything greater than $.01 to their bottom line.  

And sure, there have always been such cutthroat profiteers in this world.  But these guys have full capture of the entire US government.  They can do whatever they want.

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Posted
23 hours ago, Vegas64 said:

Took a long time but now there are a handful. It's wild. nVidia @ $5T is an "obvious yea duh" moment in either direction; a hyperinflated bust waiting to happen or a steadfast, best company in the world and positioned well for the next 10-15 years. I personally don't think we can determine which in hindsight, but I made a big, scary financial bet this morning on the former and put in a big short this AM eeeeeeeeeeeeeeekkkkkkkkk. happy halloween, this is scary because I could lose it all or make a million or two!

username is appropriate.

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Posted
Yep, this exacerbates the "what do we do with the morons" problem.  And also the training of non-morons. 


I think in the eyes of people like Altman, Musk, Thiel, etc, we are all in the morons category.

Perhaps there currently exists a line between physician and scribe, lawyer and intern, engineer and technician, professor and tutor, skilled and unskilled workers. There is also the hope and potential for someone in the lower category to ascend to the higher category if they are motivated to do so.

Eventually, as humans, we will all collectively fall into the unskilled morons category. We require a salary and benefits. We require personal time, time with our families, vacations, and sleep. We get sick. We might complain if we are treated poorly. We might leave for a better opportunity.

It’s fucking madness that so many people are embracing the AI revolution as if it will be something that might have negative consequences for other people. We are all the other people.
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Posted
3 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

 


I think in the eyes of people like Altman, Musk, Thiel, etc, we are all in the morons category.

Perhaps there currently exists a line between physician and scribe, lawyer and intern, engineer and technician, professor and tutor, skilled and unskilled workers. There is also the hope and potential for someone in the lower category to ascend to the higher category if they are motivated to do so.

Eventually, as humans, we will all collectively fall into the unskilled morons category. We require a salary and benefits. We require personal time, time with our families, vacations, and sleep. We get sick. We might complain if we are treated poorly. We might leave for a better opportunity.

It’s fucking madness that so many people are embracing the AI revolution as if it will be something that might have negative consequences for other people. We are all the other people.

 

Technodystopian Cyber Punk is the way I am starting to envision the future.

Posted (edited)

It's amazing what financial incentive and alignment will do for a man's mindset.

I'm all in on the AI is ushering in a hellscape and AI bubble will bust leading to a market correction (and/or crash). I'm a BrisketTexan, cue the gif of One of us! One of us!

Edited by Vegas64
Posted
22 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

 



It’s fucking madness that so many people are embracing the AI revolution as if it will be something that might have negative consequences for other people. We are all the other people.

This.  And not just in the realm of AI.  

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

Yep, this exacerbates the "what do we do with the morons" problem.  And also the training of non-morons.  AFAIK, being a scribe is an introduction to medicine for prospective medical students.  As is an internship in a law office or engineering firm.  Their work isn't essential, but it's not useless either, and is invaluable to the trainee.

Our techlords have an answer: Universal Basic Income

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Our techlords have an answer: Universal Basic Income

UBI is so fucking hand wavy.  We have an answer to all your concerns, society: <obi-wan>Universal Basic Income</obi-wan>.  I want to know:

  • How are you going to get buy in from everyone who thinks communism and socialism are the root of all evil?
  • How would this work in practice and be anything other than trickle down economics 2.0?
  • Are people going to be happy with basic income needs being met but no fucking life's purpose provided by a career calling?
Edited by Goredho
Posted
7 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Our techlords have an answer: Universal Basic Income

Finish the sentence.  They have that answer.  But they 100% oppose imposing or funding that answer.  So, the solution WOULD BE UBI.....but we cannot ever, ever, ever, have UBI or do the things that would fund UBI (like, you know, collecting tax revenue from the big winners in their new technodystopia).

The most important commodity in this new world is not money, it's not technology.  It's lies.  Lies are the foundation on which the whole fucking model depends.  Burst the bubble of those lies, and it ALL goes poof.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Mdhorn said:

Tech bros: Yeah, about those tax cuts, we’re going to need a lil more.

Office Space GIF by 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment

Dude.  We're past tax cuts.  What they want is a flow of tax revenues (paid by others, of course) TO them.  And they'll get it.  Why will they get it?  Because they will use SOME of that revenue to "invest" in the regime's private interests.

Want $1 billion in government funding?  All you gotta do is buy $100 million in Trumpcoins, easy peasy.  You won't pay any taxes.  You will actually GET tax money sent to you.  All you gotta do is pay the boss his vig.  This has already happened dozens of times.  I'm not telling you anything new.....

maxresdefault.jpg

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Posted
14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Finish the sentence.  They have that answer.  But they 100% oppose imposing or funding that answer.  So, the solution WOULD BE UBI.....but we cannot ever, ever, ever, have UBI or do the things that would fund UBI (like, you know, collecting tax revenue from the big winners in their new technodystopia).

The most important commodity in this new world is not money, it's not technology.  It's lies.  Lies are the foundation on which the whole fucking model depends.  Burst the bubble of those lies, and it ALL goes poof.

The most important commodity is a following.  Fuck the meek, its the influencers that shall inherit the earth.

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Posted
21 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

Also, when you reach the "we're going to use some creative and maybe/maybe not legal 'financing' vehicles/mechanisms/schemes for the sole reason of avoiding transparency/mandatory disclosures" phase, you're entering the end-game.  These schemes are not being deployed because the companies can't get financing, because there's no money, etc.  They're being deployed so that the disclosed picture does not reveal the actual debt load behind the curtain.

When you have to start hiding shit, things are about to get fucky.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Parliament said:

How does a man go about shorting all this idiocracy?

You can bet against an AI bubble through various strategies like shorting individual AI stocks (especially those with weak fundamentals like C3.ai or BigBear.ai), shorting AI-focused ETFs (like AIQ), or using options like put spreads on high-beta AI stocks. Another approach is to invest in traditional, non-AI sectors expected to perform well during a downturn, such as utilities, commodities, or defensive sectors. A more defensive strategy involves reducing exposure to big tech stocks and rebalancing portfolios toward cheaper, more stable assets, like value stocks or bonds.

 

I mean.....that's what Google's AI search result told me.

Posted
2 hours ago, Goredho said:

UBI is so fucking hand wavy.  We have an answer to all your concerns, society: <obi-wan>Universal Basic Income</obi-wan>.  I want to know:

  • How are you going to get buy in from everyone who thinks communism and socialism are the root of all evil?
  • How would this work in practice and be anything other than trickle down economics 2.0?
  • Are people going to be happy with basic income needs being met but no fucking life's purpose provided by a career calling?

The last election showed us that people are more than willing to let the oligarchs take over if they will just tell people they will give them money.  This is why UBI will work on the populace. We are dumb apes. 



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