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2023-24 Houston Rockets Thread - Climbing out of the Gutter?


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1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

The remaining schedule is manageable if we can split with the Mavs and beat the Warriors and Lakers

you mean the clippers?

It's a really tough stretch over the next 6 games: DAL, @MIN, GS, MIA, @DAL, ORL.  

After that Utah and POR should be easier but both are on the road, and then the season finale @LAC, in which the clippers may or may not be resting players- they probably won't have a shot to move above their current #4 seed but might still be fighting the pelicans, mavericks or suns to hold onto it going into that last game.

This team is really gonna have to earn it to make the play-in, but these high pressure games going down the stretch can only help the young players in the long term, especially now that we have an actual coaching staff in place to take advantage of the situation for development.

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Slacks said:

Jalen Green wants his trade value to be high, amirite?

No way in hell you trade JG after this run….

EDIT - If that was sarcasm my bad; drunk as hell at backyard crawfish broil….

Edited by Ignatius
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1 hour ago, Ignatius said:

No way in hell you trade JG after this run….

EDIT - If that was sarcasm my bad; drunk as hell at backyard crawfish broil….

Definitely sarcasm. I approve of drunken backyard crawfish boil, minus the lack of an invite, of course.

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2 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Smoked the Rockets and then turned around and dropped a winnable game in Golden State on a night the Rockets lost. Thats a 2 game bump for the Warriors. 

That said, if they can’t win a critical head to head with Golden State they have no business being in the postseason. 

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There's about a 51% chance Houston is picking 9th and about a 26% chance they're picking 10th

Assuming they keep the pick and don't land in the top four via the lotto, how would you rank the top ten targets?

I'd go these top eight in some order:

Risacher

Williams

Buzelis

Sheppard

Topic

Sarr

Castle

Holland

And then these two for 9/10 in some order

Cligan

Dillingham

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On 4/5/2024 at 10:42 AM, Fud said:

There's about a 51% chance Houston is picking 9th and about a 26% chance they're picking 10th

Assuming they keep the pick and don't land in the top four via the lotto, how would you rank the top ten targets?

I'd go these top eight in some order:

Risacher

Williams

Buzelis

Sheppard

Topic

Sarr

Castle

Holland

And then these two for 9/10 in some order

Cligan

Dillingham

i'm not going to pretend to know anything about the foreign guys or the g-leaguers, but based upon the guys i've seen in college this year i'd be fine with:

1. Donovan Clingan - think he'd be a perfect backup to Sengun and provides a defensive presence that Sengun lacks

2. Rob Dillingham - electric scorer.  may profile to a 6th man/Lou Williams type of role, but that's fine the Rockets don't need this pick to be a star

3. Cody Williams - defensive wing who can be Tari Eason insurance

4. Jared McCain - would fill a similar role to the one mentioned for Dillingham.  better size and probably a better shooter, but more of a one dimensional scorer than Dillingham

5. Dalton Knecht - another scorer, who could start or come off the bench

6. Stephon Castle - big, defensive guard with questionable jump shot.  sort of in the Amen Thompson mold though obviously not as athletic.

 

Given that there should be several foreign and g-league guys picked in the top 10, my assumption is that it is very likely that at least one of these guys will be available whenver the Rockets pick.

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While I think the future is bright, I worry that the young core is made up of good players, but not All NBA players. Alpi and Green would have the best chances of getting there, but they’re years away.

I think Wemby to the Spurs was a Silver rig job. Nothing we could there, but losing out on Cade, Banchero, and Chet is just terrible luck.

I’m all for running it back with a healthy squad next year, but somebody needs to emerge as a superstar or they’re going to have package young players for a proven All Star soon. 

 

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Murfdogg21 said:

Stupid Nets keep winning meaningless games and screwing the draft pick. 

It's locked into the 9th spot for lottery odds. 50% chance it's 9th, 25% chance it's 10th, ~5% chance it jumps to top 1-4. Not bad, but there is also a slim chance the Rockets' pick ends up in the top 4 too and the swap doesn't matter. 

Screenshot_20240411_152429_Chrome.thumb.jpg.4804855765961026f5b8863229ff191e.jpg

Edited by Dutchrudder
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1 hour ago, Dutchrudder said:

It's locked into the 9th spot for lottery odds. 50% chance it's 9th, 25% chance it's 10th, ~5% chance it jumps to top 1-4. Not bad, but there is also a slim chance the Rockets' pick ends up in the top 4 too and the swap doesn't matter. 

Screenshot_20240411_152429_Chrome.thumb.jpg.4804855765961026f5b8863229ff191e.jpg

Is it a swap? Wouldn't the Rockets have both their own and the Brooklyn pick if they move into the top 4?

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Is it a swap? Wouldn't the Rockets have both their own and the Brooklyn pick if they move into the top 4?

I believe they have the swap option with Brooklyn, but also 1-10 protection with OKCs swap. So basically they will get the best pick between themselves and Brooklyn. Brooklyn will likely get the OKC pick, while OKC picks 12th in the Rockets spot. Houston probably gets 9th overall, unless they get lucky. They have about a 6% chance at top 4 each time the lotto balls drop.

From realGM

"2025 first round draft pick from Oklahoma City or Brooklyn (Houston outgoing to Oklahoma City or Brooklyn)

Oklahoma City has the right to swap its 2025 1st round pick for Houston's 2025 1st round pick protected for selections 1-10 or the L.A. Clippers' 2025 1st round pick; Houston then has the right to swap its pick or the Oklahoma City pick for Brooklyn's 2025 1st round pick; if the Houston pick falls within its protected range, then Houston's obligation to Oklahoma City will be extinguished and Houston will instead have the right to swap its pick for the Brooklyn pick"

Edited by Dutchrudder
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45 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

I believe they have the swap option with Brooklyn, but also 1-10 protection with OKCs swap. So basically they will get the best pick between themselves and Brooklyn. Brooklyn will likely get the OKC pick, while OKC picks 12th in the Rockets spot. Houston probably gets 9th overall, unless they get lucky. They have about a 6% chance at top 4 each time the lotto balls drop.

From realGM

"2025 first round draft pick from Oklahoma City or Brooklyn (Houston outgoing to Oklahoma City or Brooklyn)

Oklahoma City has the right to swap its 2025 1st round pick for Houston's 2025 1st round pick protected for selections 1-10 or the L.A. Clippers' 2025 1st round pick; Houston then has the right to swap its pick or the Oklahoma City pick for Brooklyn's 2025 1st round pick; if the Houston pick falls within its protected range, then Houston's obligation to Oklahoma City will be extinguished and Houston will instead have the right to swap its pick for the Brooklyn pick"

Is that this year or next? I'm seeing that they get the 2024 BKN pick unprotected as a stand alone from the Harden trade. Then their own 2024 pick goes to OKC unless it's 1-4, and then they keep it and OKC gets their 2025 second round pick.

 

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9 hours ago, Murfdogg21 said:

They get Brooklyn’s regardless. If the Rockets pick is top 4, they get both picks. 

This is accurate. We owe OKC our 2024 and 2026 1st round picks; however they’re lottery protected for the top 4 picks. If we get lucky and get a top 4 pick we keep it for this draft and have to give up our 2025 pick to OKC. We get the Nets 2025 & 2027 1st round picks which aren’t lottery protected 

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1 hour ago, Macklemore said:

This is accurate. We owe OKC our 2024 and 2026 1st round picks; however they’re lottery protected for the top 4 picks. If we get lucky and get a top 4 pick we keep it for this draft and have to give up our 2025 pick to OKC. We get the Nets 2025 & 2027 1st round picks which aren’t lottery protected 

If Houston keeps the pick this year, it turns into a 2nd rounder in 2025 because *OKC has swap rights for Houston's 2025 1st round pick (top ten protected)

* Houston also has swap rights with Brooklyn in 2025. If the Houston pick is outside of the top 10, OKC gets the best of Houston, OKC, and LAC, and Houston gets the 2nd best, while LAC the worst, and then Houston can swap that pick with Brooklyn's (which should be the worst of the bunch). If it's within the top 10, Houston can simply swap with Brooklyn if their pick is better. The 2025 draft is viewed as strong at the top (primarily due to Cooper Flagg, but there are also others), which is where Houston has another shot at getting their all NBA type that they might not currently have

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15 hours ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Is that this year or next? I'm seeing that they get the 2024 BKN pick unprotected as a stand alone from the Harden trade. Then their own 2024 pick goes to OKC unless it's 1-4, and then they keep it and OKC gets their 2025 second round pick.

 

Sorry, yeah that's right for 2024, I was reading the 2025 scenarios.

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Holy shit the Harden trade was an absolute fleecing. The Rockets own the Nets 1st or swap in 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027.

Harden played a grand total of 80 games for the Nets over two half-seasons. The Nets then traded him for 57 total games of Ben Simmons, his bad back, and atrocious contract which somehow still has one more year and $40 million on it. The Nets also got a FRP that they traded for Royce O'Neil and another 1-8 protected pick from the 76ers. Absolutely brutal.

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3 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Holy shit the Harden trade was an absolute fleecing. The Rockets own the Nets 1st or swap in 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027.

Harden played a grand total of 80 games for the Nets over two half-seasons. The Nets then traded him for 57 total games of Ben Simmons, his bad back, and atrocious contract which somehow still has one more year and $40 million on it. The Nets also got a FRP that they traded for Royce O'Neil and another 1-8 protected pick from the 76ers. Absolutely brutal.

I don’t know if we got lucky there but it did mitigate some of the remarkable damage from the Westbrook trade.  That might go down in the annals of Rocket lore as the worst trade ever and we still haven’t fully realized the punishment.  

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Holy shit the Harden trade was an absolute fleecing. The Rockets own the Nets 1st or swap in 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027.

Harden played a grand total of 80 games for the Nets over two half-seasons. The Nets then traded him for 57 total games of Ben Simmons, his bad back, and atrocious contract which somehow still has one more year and $40 million on it. The Nets also got a FRP that they traded for Royce O'Neil and another 1-8 protected pick from the 76ers. Absolutely brutal.

Yup, you can thank KD for that. He did the same to the Suns with the stupid ass Beal trade too. At least the Nets have some hope in the Suns falling apart in the future, but otherwise the next few years are pretty bleak.  Look at that:

Suns get: 

Bradley Beal
Jordan Goodwin
Isaiah Todd

Wizards get: 

Chris Paul
Landry Shamet
Bilal Coulibaly (No. 7 pick, via Pacers)
2024 first-round pick swap
2024 second-round pick
2025 second-round pick
2026 first-round pick swap
2026 second-round pick
2027 second-round pick
2028 first-round pick swap
2028 second-round pick
2030 first-round pick swap
2030 second-round pick

Pacers get:

Jarace Walker (No. 8 pick, via Wizards)
Future second-round pick (via Wizards)
Future second-round pick (via Suns)

Edited by Dutchrudder
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4 hours ago, Dutchrudder said:

Yup, you can thank KD for that. He did the same to the Suns with the stupid ass Beal trade too. At least the Nets have some hope in the Suns falling apart in the future, but otherwise the next few years are pretty bleak.  Look at that:

Suns get: 

Bradley Beal
Jordan Goodwin
Isaiah Todd

Wizards get: 

Chris Paul
Landry Shamet
Bilal Coulibaly (No. 7 pick, via Pacers)
2024 first-round pick swap
2024 second-round pick
2025 second-round pick
2026 first-round pick swap
2026 second-round pick
2027 second-round pick
2028 first-round pick swap
2028 second-round pick
2030 first-round pick swap
2030 second-round pick

Pacers get:

Jarace Walker (No. 8 pick, via Wizards)
Future second-round pick (via Wizards)
Future second-round pick (via Suns)

It seems like trades involving Chris Paul are a fleecing for the team that trades him. The Hornets, Clippers, Rockets, and Suns all got fleeced when they traded him away. Only the Thunder did well. 

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22 hours ago, LCHorn said:

I don’t know if we got lucky there but it did mitigate some of the remarkable damage from the Westbrook trade.  That might go down in the annals of Rocket lore as the worst trade ever and we still haven’t fully realized the punishment.  

The one bad trade made under Morey.. of course, it wasn't his call. I think Tildo learned from that one 

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Rockets win the last game of the season against the Clips to end with a .500 record. Wish we made the play-in; however, no doubt this season was a big success. Ime is a top 5 coach in the league, Alpi is a genuine star, Jalen flashed greatness in March, Amen and Cam came along nicely. Still need to see more from Jabari. This team is in damn good shape to contend next season.

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Posted (edited)

great to get to 0.500, had doubts but Clips didn't play Harden, Kawhi, Westbrick, and George. We still struggled to win. I'll take it.  Super young core - Houston could be the next OKC, just need someone with an edge, and add some height and muscle. FVV was the best FA addition in a hell of a long time.   

27-14 is the 8th best home record in the NBA, not bad at all.  Only the very best had more home wins - Boston, OKC, Denver, Minny, Lakers, Bucks, Magic. 

Edited by Make em eat Taco Bell
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Brooklyn’s pick has a 20.3% chance of landing top 4. Houston’s pick has a 7.1% chance, and could jump to 9.4% if ATL or CHI make it out of the play-in. 29.7% at a top 4 pick is nice for a team that finished 0.500….and maybe 9.4% chance that we get two top 10 picks. 

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15 hours ago, perfectchaos007 said:

Hopefully the lottery works in our favor. Iirc OKC gets our pick if it’s not a top 4 pick 

Sure, but Houston owns Brooklyn's pick

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2 hours ago, Murfdogg21 said:

Brooklyn’s pick has a 20.3% chance of landing top 4. Houston’s pick has a 7.1% chance, and could jump to 9.4% if ATL or CHI make it out of the play-in. 29.7% at a top 4 pick is nice for a team that finished 0.500….and maybe 9.4% chance that we get two top 10 picks. 

That's not how it works. You have a ~5/100 chance 4 times, which is like 20/400, or 5% overall for the Nets pick. Rockets have a very slim chance of getting their pick upgraded, so it will likely be the 9th overall pick from the Nets and nothing else.  

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13 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

That's not how it works. You have a ~5/100 chance 4 times, which is like 20/400, or 5% overall for the Nets pick. Rockets have a very slim chance of getting their pick upgraded, so it will likely be the 9th overall pick from the Nets and nothing else.  

I’m pulling numbers off Tankathon, which is usually pretty accurate. NBA assigns teams a number of different number combinations based on how many losses they have. Houston owns the number combinations for their pick (until that combo is not in the top 4) and the number combinations for the Nets. So yes, the odds of #1 or a top 4 pick between the two are additive. If you want to get into the odds which one is top 4 and which one isn’t, you need to do some factorials. 

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