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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]


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3 minutes ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

The gravity of the beauty contest argument means a lot less when it's two teams arguing over who should be #12 or 13.  The bowl system was the ultimate beauty contest, pining for those days is putting the car into reverse and mashing down on the gas.

I suppose it’s more about the nostalgia of games That Matter on January 1 and the wildness of that day instead of a mid January Monday night. 
 

Point Taken.

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25 minutes ago, NoName said:

Full text since Twitter is dumb:

Ohio State is ranked behind Oregon.

OSU has:
- better loss
- 2 ranked wins (both ranked higher than Oregon's 1 ranked win)

This year, more than any I can remember, has told me that voters do not care about strength of schedule. And there is /zero/ upside to scheduling big OOC opponents.

Oregon's best win is 5-4 vs P5 teams, played no P5 OOC.

OSU's best win is a top-10 PSU. 2nd best win is #16 Notre Dame. 

Do not schedule big-time OOC games

Do not play in a conference that has better competition

Do everything you can to minimize the loss column and impress voters with multi-score wins over bad teams

Those in charge of stewarding our sport are failing on multiple fronts

 

This dude is just figuring this out??  This has been going on for 70 years.  It didn't change with "BCS/Playoffs/etc".   Anyone who doesn't know this shouldn't be allowed to comment on college football.

I repeat, the SEC was NEVER punished for the 4th OOC auto win.  Hell some of them play 2 FCS and still don't get punished.

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25 minutes ago, Hmbre97 said:

No way unless Alabama beats Georgia something like 50-13 and we go tripple overtime with OSU

 

Much like Oregon has the poll momentum over us, we have the same over Alabama. If it comes down to us being the Big12 champ and them being the SEC champ, we get it via H2H and all the talking head have said as such as well. Especially after their debacle against an awful Auburn team.  

Nothing good comes from a Bama win, and they have zero shot of winning a blowout. Any Bama win is likely the worst thing that would happen to us other than an FSU win. We need certainties and eliminations. I’m rooting hard for UGA and UW, though it seems Oregon could rout UW. I strongly suspect the first three seeds will be in order UGA, Mich, and PAC 12 winner. We must have FSU lose and possibly still need some help but probably not. 

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8 minutes ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

The gravity of the beauty contest argument means a lot less when it's two teams arguing over who should be #12 or 13.  The bowl system was the ultimate beauty contest, pining for those days is putting the car into reverse and mashing down on the gas.

in a 12 team playoff we will be arguing over who gets top 4 to get a bye but that's it.  9-12 are about as likely to win a NC as aggy.

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4 minutes ago, victory88 said:

Stick to watching pac 12 games.  How about the 38-30 beauty contest against tech.  The only reason Oregon was ahead of us initially bc they throttled a ranked colorado team and a ranked Utah team that were both farces.  With no common opponents, being mid way through the season… strength of schedule didn’t come into play and we also had our back up qb.  It’s going to be totally different.  Is Oregon’s win against a team they lost to going to be better than our road win against #3 Bama? Nope.  Will Oregon have a better strength of schedule? Nope.  Will Oregon have beaten more ranked teams? Nope.  Will Oregon have an advantage in common opponent?  Nope.  You’re simply relying on an eye test.  If Texas wins another game 40-17 or along those lines…. Then I’m not sure the committee will be able to find any reason to keep Oregon in front of us.

They also see middling Texas victories against KSU, ISU, TCU, and Houston where the Longhorns allowed overmatched opponents to stubbornly hang around. The committee isn’t going to consider injuries.  And yes that’s exactly bullshit beauty contest stuff.   
 

I don’t disagree with any of your metrics, but I’m just saying that there is a very strong chance that if UO beats Washington bad on Friday, they won’t care and the Ducks will make the playoffs. Particularly if Texas doesn’t blow the doors off the pokes. And several of us on this thread are trying to prepare the fan base for that.  But I’ve already been told to stfu. So here we are. 
 

 

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3 hours ago, UTEE97 said:

H2H matters only if other things are equal. If Bama wins the SEC they would have a better SOS and the committee won't hesitate to put them above us. We are putting too much weight o H2H imo.

Then why even play the game lol. We absolutely should be ahead of them and that is their cross to bear. Just like we fucked up losing to OU, they fucked up losing to us. 

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2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

in a 12 team playoff we will be arguing over who gets top 4 to get a bye but that's it.  9-12 are about as likely to win a NC as aggy.

I hope when it goes to 12 that P5 conference champs are automatic.  Sure, you'll end up with some 2-3 loss champs that win the conference in an upset, but that makes things interesting when there are 12 spots.  Having a guaranteed path based on results would be nice and then the rest of the spots can continue with the magic 8 ball committee BS.  

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2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

They also see middling Texas victories against KSU, ISU, TCU, and Houston where the Longhorns allowed overmatched opponents to stubbornly hang around. The committee isn’t going to consider injuries.  And yes that’s exactly bullshit beauty contest stuff.   
 

I don’t disagree with any of your metrics, but I’m just saying that there is a very strong chance that if UO beats Washington bad on Friday, they won’t care and the Ducks will make the playoffs. Particularly if Texas doesn’t blow the doors off the pokes. And several of us on this thread are trying to prepare the fan base for that.  But I’ve already been told to stfu. So here we are. 
 

 

There was nothing middling about beating a ranked KSU, defending big 12 championship team with our back up QB.  People are talking about Oregon’s big win against Oregon state lmao.  KSU would smoke Oregon state.

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5 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

The committee isn’t going to consider injuries.

On the CFP show a couple weeks ago, the committee dude specifically brought up injury considerations a couple times in a short interview.  Of course, he didn't clarify how they are considered, but I thought it was interesting that he went out of his way to mention it a couple times.  So they are are least talking about it.  

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3 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

They also see middling Texas victories against KSU, ISU, TCU, and Houston where the Longhorns allowed overmatched opponents to stubbornly hang around. The committee isn’t going to consider injuries.  And yes that’s exactly bullshit beauty contest stuff.   
 

I don’t disagree with any of your metrics, but I’m just saying that there is a very strong chance that if UO beats Washington bad on Friday, they won’t care and the Ducks will make the playoffs. Particularly if Texas doesn’t blow the doors off the pokes. And several of us on this thread are trying to prepare the fan base for that.  But I’ve already been told to stfu. So here we are. 
 

 

It’s true, but encouraging poor scheduling is terrible for College football fans and the game. Here is SOS currently 

undefeated teams:

1. Michigan (sos 36)
2. Washington ( 46)
3. FSU (56)
4. Georgia (59)

1 loss:
5. OSU (6)
6. Texas (13)
7. Bama (31)
8. Oregon (61)

Committee may completely reverse the SOS rankings of 1 loss teams, which is pretty crazy. 

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4 minutes ago, victory88 said:

There was nothing middling about beating a ranked KSU, defending big 12 championship team with our back up QB.  People are talking about Oregon’s big win against Oregon state lmao.  KSU would smoke Oregon state.

KSU losing yesterday didn't help..., likely lost one of our ranked wins.  

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Just now, dcar00 said:

It is really going to be funny if Texas, Mich, Wash, FSU, Bama all win this weekend.  which is a very possible scenario.  will expose all the bullshit for all to see.

I think if that happens, Texas goes over Bama. So long as we look dominant against OSU (which we should). There are consequences to losing games and Bama lost to us head to head in their house. We 1000% should go in front of them and the SEC should be blocked out of the playoff. This isn't the ideal scenario, I would much prefer FSU to lose, but if they do not, this is our next best shot. 

 

To be honest though, Bama looked like steaming shit against Auburn and I expect them to lose by double digits to Georgia. So I think this will all be moot. For us to get in, we are going to need Louisville or Iowa (lol) to win. Full stop.  

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1 minute ago, victory88 said:

There was nothing middling about beating a ranked KSU, defending big 12 championship team with our back up QB.  People are talking about Oregon’s big win against Oregon state lmao.  KSU would smoke Oregon state.

too funny seeing Oregon State being ranked 21 in the AP.  highest 4 loss team playing in a shitty conference, who played UC Davis, San Jose St, and San Diego State OOC.

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3 minutes ago, blutow said:

On the CFP show a couple weeks ago, the committee dude specifically brought up injury considerations a couple times in a short interview.  Of course, he didn't clarify how they are considered, but I thought it was interesting that he went out of his way to mention it a couple times.  So they are are least talking about it.  

beating Louisville with the backup will certainly be enough for an undefeated FSU.

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Texas has no way in....

Michigan is going to beat Iowa who cannot score

tOSU is already ahead of us and cannot lose anymore games

The SEC champ is going regardless of who the victor is and the PAC champ is going regardless of who the victor is.

At this point I want FSU to go to keep bitch ass Ohio State out.

Edited by Pimphand
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2 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

Do you really need to schedule OOC tough opponents when you’re playing Georgia, ou, auburn, Tennessee, etc? I wouldn’t. 

Yeah, this, I think going forward we should look for tune up games from easy to moderate difficulty. Stay away from Texas vs Michigan type games because they clearly dont mean shit. 

Edited by The_Great_Hornsby
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15 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Then why even play the game lol. We absolutely should be ahead of them and that is their cross to bear. Just like we fucked up losing to OU, they fucked up losing to us. 

Exactly. If we're going to be punished for losing to ou sucks, then Bama needs to get the same for losing to us.

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7 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

It’s true, but encouraging poor scheduling is terrible for College football fans and the game. Here is SOS currently 

undefeated teams:

1. Michigan (sos 36)
2. Washington ( 46)
3. FSU (56)
4. Georgia (59)

1 loss:
5. OSU (6)
6. Texas (13)
7. Bama (31)
8. Oregon (61)

Committee may completely reverse the SOS rankings of 1 loss teams, which is pretty crazy. 

Reporter to Royal - "coach, how do you win a national championship"

Royal - "first Notre Dame has to lose"

what if our one loss was a close loss to Bama and not OU?  It wouldn't matter, so why take the chance?   what is OU's SOS?

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3 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Texas has no way in....

Michigan is going to beat Purdue who cannot score

tOSU is already ahead of us and cannot lose anymore games

The SEC champ is going regardless of who the victor is and the PAC champ is going regardless of who the victor is.

At this point I want FSU to go to keep bitch ass Ohio State out.

Uhh, we have a chance to win a conference championship game against a ranked opponent while tOSU sits idle.

We need to win, and we need FSU or Michigan to lose, and bonus points if Bama doesn't beat Georgia 31-30 or something ridiculous.  We should jump tOSU and the loser of Oregon/Washington as long as we take care of our own business.  We really need Louisville to beat FSU -- that should get us there.

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1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

Reporter to Royal - "coach, how do you win a national championship"

Royal - "first Notre Dame has to lose"

what if our one loss was a close loss to Bama and not OU?  It wouldn't matter, so why take the chance?   what is OU's SOS?

50 

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16 minutes ago, blutow said:

I hope when it goes to 12 that P5 conference champs are automatic.  Sure, you'll end up with some 2-3 loss champs that win the conference in an upset, but that makes things interesting when there are 12 spots.  Having a guaranteed path based on results would be nice and then the rest of the spots can continue with the magic 8 ball committee BS.  

Don't the top 6 ranked conference champs get auto bids? That's always or at the very least almost always gonna include the P5 champs.

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35 minutes ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

The gravity of the beauty contest argument means a lot less when it's two teams arguing over who should be #12 or 13.  The bowl system was the ultimate beauty contest, pining for those days is putting the car into reverse and mashing down on the gas.

If we get left out behind 4 unbeaten teams I don't really have a problem with that, even if I think we are better than Washington or FSU.

If we get left out behind Oregon who had a lot weaker SOS I would be very unhappy.  If somehow we got left out behind a 1 loss Ohio St., Michigan or Alabama, then its time to throw out the committee.

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5 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Yeah, this, I think going forward we should look for tune up games from easy to moderate difficulty. Stay away from Texas vs Michigan type games because they clearly dont mean shit. 

Yea with Georgia and bama and auburn and then throw in rivalry games of ou and aggy I wouldn’t schedule anyone else. If the committee wanted those games and awarded Texas for beating bama by almost 2 tds instead of Oregon impressive last second win over tech then we should schedule those games. But they don’t. 

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13 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Texas has no way in....

Michigan is going to beat Iowa who cannot score

tOSU is already ahead of us and cannot lose anymore games

The SEC champ is going regardless of who the victor is and the PAC champ is going regardless of who the victor is.

At this point I want FSU to go to keep bitch ass Ohio State out.

Showing your ass once again. Thinking OSU not playing in their CCG is a good thing for them. Lollllll

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To the point about Oregon beating UW and my argument that that could come back to haunt us. Look at this web site. It’s literally the only scenario generator I can find, since 538 stopped doing it, which is shocking. They have their own rankings, which ranks us more favorably, and predict how committee will vote. I have no idea how legitimate this site is and I’m looking for resources. Interestingly, they have Oregon, FSU, Texas and tOSU at 4-7 come Tuesday:

https://playoffpredictor.com/currentPredictedRankings.php

I fooled around with 2 scenarios - both with FSU / Bama losing and UM winning, and 1 each with UW/Oregon winning.  With UW winning, we’re in.  With Oregon winning, we’re out  

 

image.pngimage.thumb.png.fbc34786eb3aeb66c3fe6ff706ffb9f1.png

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13 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Texas has no way in....

Michigan is going to beat Iowa who cannot score

tOSU is already ahead of us and cannot lose anymore games

The SEC champ is going regardless of who the victor is and the PAC champ is going regardless of who the victor is.

At this point I want FSU to go to keep bitch ass Ohio State out.

BS.  We win and FSU loses and we are in.  Ohio St. has almost no chance.  They will be behind Michigan, the SEC champ and the Pac 12 champ, no matter what.  Texas wins and they are out.  FSU wins and they are out.  They may be behind Georgia if UGA loses.

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3 minutes ago, bullet said:

If we get left out behind 4 unbeaten teams I don't really have a problem with that, even if I think we are better than Washington or FSU.

If we get left out behind Oregon who had a lot weaker SOS I would be very unhappy.  If somehow we got left out behind a 1 loss Ohio St., Michigan or Alabama, then its time to throw out the committee.

+1 on this.  As much as I think we are clearly better than FSU with their backup QB, if they win next week they should be in.  I give them credit for scheduling LSU even though LSU sucks this year.  

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40 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Then why even play the game lol. We absolutely should be ahead of them and that is their cross to bear. Just like we fucked up losing to OU, they fucked up losing to us. 

OU dropped below us after they lost to Kansas even though they had the same record as us and won the H2H. Why do you think that is? Perhaps other games matter too? The committee considers a lot of stuff including H2H but it's not always the deciding factor.

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  • immamac changed the title to THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

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