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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]


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36 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Well, we don't get in without FSU losing for sure. Bama winning could throw a kink in things.

And yes, the committee absolutely does not value the Big 12 at all.

 

Based on that chart posted last night (and, yes, I understand that is that pundits best guess as what would happen), there are several scenarios where Texas could still get in even if FSU wins. They're not as likely to happen as other scenarios but these could get Texas in without a Louisville upset:

  • Michigan, Texas, Oregon, FSU and Bama win = Michigan-FSU-Oregon-Texas in CFP (this is if committee would dare shut out SEC)
  • Michigan, Texas, Washington, FSU and Bama win = Michigan-Washington-FSU-Texas in CFP
  • Iowa, Texas, Oregon, FSU and Georgia win = Georgia-FSU-Oregon-Texas in CFP (narrator: Iowa won't win
  • Iowa, Texas, Oregon, FSU and Bama win = FSU-Oregon-Texas-Bama in CFP (narrator: Iowa can't win)
  • Iowa, Texas, Washington, FSU and Georgia win = Georgia-Washington-FSU-Texas in CFP (not included in chart)
  • Iowa, Texas, Washington, FSU and Bama win = Washington-FSU-Texas-Bama in CFP (not sure about this one -- it wasn't included in the chart either)

These are listed in order of likelihood of happening.

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1 minute ago, LateAughtsHorn said:

In this case, from a team development standpoint, I'm thinking that scheduling a premier OOC opponent could prove beneficial down the line in the playoffs. 

I cant think of one situation where scheduling tough OOC games has helped the team that won make the playoffs. It has only hurt them when they lose.  Maybe Ohio St/Ou the year they split is the only one but not sure. 

 

next year for example the Mich game will be awesome. If we lose that game though along with say UGA and Fla and have 3 losses we are going to be in this same shitty scenario. We have the best win all year my many opinions and it still likely wont be enough. 

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1 minute ago, Codaxx said:

Texas is out of the top 4 currently, so they need spots to open up. Texas fans should root against every undefeated team, because there is  0 argument for Texas to get in over a undefeated team (maybe with FSU, snowballs chance in hell type o thing).. Rooting for Michigan and Washington does not help.. Texas fans need to root for Iowa, Oregon, and Bama. Chaos is a friend of Texas

No they don’t. Louisville only. Others don’t matter, because we aren’t getting in over Bama or Oregon if they win. The only realistic way we make the playoff is if Louisville beats FSU and we win. If Bama beats Georgia, they’ll probably put both in because they can do what they want.
 

And Michigan isn’t losing to a terrible Iowa team. 

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9 minutes ago, immamac said:

This is the correct scenario for everyone to be rooting for. 

image.png.cd61bf33a0b5f0d8ddc4a195cb6e9465.png

Why the hell would any Texas fan want Michigan to win?  That's idiotic.  It makes zero sense.  It's not connected to the other controversy because Iowa sucks and has no shot to get in the playoff, even as a conference champion.

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2 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Texas is out of the top 4 currently, so they need spots to open up. Texas fans should root against every undefeated team, because there is  0 argument for Texas to get in over a undefeated team (maybe with FSU, snowballs chance in hell type o thing).. Rooting for Michigan and Washington does not help.. Texas fans need to root for Iowa, Oregon, and Bama. Chaos is a friend of Texas

Pretty much. If FSU, Michigan, Washington, Georgia win this weekend, it's a wrap. I know many want us to get in over FSU but if they are undefeated ACC champ, they are in. And would be a bye week for the 1 seed. Committee isn't going to drop them.

We need to start by rooting for Oregon on Friday night. I get we probably don't get in over Oregon at this point (even though we should), the 0 loss teams need to start dropping.

But if FSU loses, we should get their spot. A 1 loss Washington or 1 loss Ohio St is not getting that spot over a 1 loss Big 12 champ Texas. 

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35 minutes ago, Hondo said:

I don't disagree with the rationale.  I simply don't see them leaving the 1-loss SEC champ out of the playoff. 

A CFP without "2x Defending National Champion UGA" or the "1-loss team that knocked off the 2x Defending National Champion UGA to win the SECCG" ... which in this case is already "Nick Saban's Alabama"...?  File it under "things that are probably not gonna happen" for whatever the reason.

Obviously, that's a situation where I'll be thrilled to be proven wrong.

Like I said, I don't totally disagree with your thinking (SEC bias is real). I think there would be a lot of criticism if this is what happens, though. Is that the point where they do the mental gymnastics and leave FSU behind due to the Travis injury?

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A Texas Michigan National Championship with a rematch next season? What more could you actually want as a CFB fan?

Redemption against alabama in a rematch for the ages to correct the timeline?

Revenge for the bowl loss to Washington and sark win a semi game against his old team? 

This is a Texas fan's dream Playoff scenario, who gives a fuck about the Oregon ducks - I'd rather play Washigton.

Obviously the first thing we root for is Texas getting in, I'm saying this is the ideal "holy fuck that's awesome" playoff scenario for a Texas fan.

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31 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

my point is that we should already be above Oregon based on SOS difference of 40 spots+ with the same record and loss to OU.  we beat the other teams on our schedule which was much harder.  If Oregon plays our schedule they lose 2 games at least.

I 100% agree with that. I'm simply arguing the single point that without the Bama win, Texas isn't even in the discussion unless EVERY favored team lost this weekend except us. (And that still *might* not be enough.)

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1 minute ago, idigTexas said:

I'm sick of seeing the "they beat the 2x defending champion" argument.  What the fuck does Georgia's accomplishments from the previous two seasons have to do with this season?  

A lot, because Georgia hasn't lost a game in so long it's actually a bit absurd. 

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23 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

You disagree with head-to-head results, given two P5 conference champs with identical records?  OK, I guess.

You really think the committee is going to leave out a 1-loss, SEC champ Alabama? Unfortunately for us, the committee doesn’t give a fuck about Texas like they do Alabama. The winner of the SEC championship gets in.

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Too much to catch up on to read it all.

I expect that we only have one shot - Georgia, Michigan, Washington, Texas and Louisville win. That's it.

If Michigan, Florida State, Washington, Texas, and Alabama win, I know we're getting screwed and they'll put Bama in over us and use the excuse that they're playing better at the end of the season than we are and beating #1 is better than beating whatever Bama's rank was at the time. They won't care about the head-to-head win.

If Georgia, Michigan, Florida State, Texas, and Oregon St win, they'll put in OregonSt and leave us out.

If Alabama, Michigan, Florida State, Oregon State, and Texas win, I wouldn't be surprised to see them put in Alabama AND Georgia and leave us and Oregon St out. Otherwise, they'll still put in Bama and OregonSt.

I fully expect to be screwed by Bama winning and jumping us. The only way we stay ahead is if we both get in, and that doesn't seem likely.

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15 minutes ago, immamac said:

This is the correct scenario for everyone to be rooting for. 

image.png.cd61bf33a0b5f0d8ddc4a195cb6e9465.png

Yeah, that's where I'm at. Quick question -- do our rooting interests change if Oregon beats Washington as expected on Friday night?

(Obviously, an Iowa win does nothing but help everybody so technically we're all Hawkeyes fans on Saturday night.)

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1 minute ago, Vertuzzi said:

You really think the committee is going to leave out a 1-loss, SEC champ Alabama? Unfortunately for us, the committee doesn’t give a fuck about Texas like they do Alabama. The winner of the SEC championship gets in.

This is actually debatable though, Texas going in over Oregon is not. That was my point earlier in the thread. 

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Just now, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

No they don’t. Louisville only. Others don’t matter, because we aren’t getting in over Bama or Oregon if they win. The only realistic way we make the playoff is if Louisville beats FSU and we win. If Bama beats Georgia, they’ll probably put both in because they can do what they want.
 

And Michigan isn’t losing to a terrible Iowa team. 

Lville win is the best chacne for Texas to get in, but not the only

Lets look a this logically:

1. Michigan vs Iowa.... Michigan wins the are a stone cold lock to get in.. Iowa loss opens up a slot in the playoffs. In that scenario, Texas has a better chance to make the playoffs with a Iowa win (highly unlikely).. So rooting for Michigan would be counterproductive to increasing Texas's chance of making the playoffs

2. UGa vs Bama. UGa is a lock. 100% certainty they get in over Texas.. Texas has head to head over Bama, so a Bama win helps the Texas resume... You can believe that Bama gets in over Texas, but not with 100% certainty. Root for Bama

3. Wash vs Oregon.. This is the same.. Washington is a 100% lock to get in over Texas with a win. Oregon maybe 95% chance to get in over Texas, but it is not 100% like Washington.. Root for Oregon

4.. WE all agree on Lville vs FSU

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image.png.b8d12e737c1a7980798b0842bf7cec75.png

 

About the only thing more predictable than Oregon being in the CFP with a win is Beau Vine following me around, "drooling" on every post.  xD

Reminds me of my 2 year old niece when she didn't have the vocabulary to express herself, so she just stomped around all angsty.  Use your words, little buddy.  Tell me what's wrong.

 

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9 minutes ago, joeycovers said:

I cant think of one situation where scheduling tough OOC games has helped the team that won make the playoffs. It has only hurt them when they lose.  Maybe Ohio St/Ou the year they split is the only one but not sure. 

 

next year for example the Mich game will be awesome. If we lose that game though along with say UGA and Fla and have 3 losses we are going to be in this same shitty scenario. We have the best win all year my many opinions and it still likely wont be enough. 

Alabama basically has little chance to make the playoffs based solely on an OOC matchup.   If they didn't play uss this year, people would be talking about how UGA and Bama both need to be in regardless of who wins Saturday.

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18 minutes ago, immamac said:

This is the correct scenario for everyone to be rooting for. 

image.png.cd61bf33a0b5f0d8ddc4a195cb6e9465.png

It is a scenario that would be good for us, but you're really putting almost all of your eggs in the Louisville basket. There is no reason not to root for Oregon and Iowa as well. We have a less of chance of advancing if Washington wins on Friday. It really is that simple. 

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2 minutes ago, joeycovers said:

I cant think of one situation where scheduling tough OOC games has helped the team that won make the playoffs. It has only hurt them when they lose.  Maybe Ohio St/Ou the year they split is the only one but not sure. 

 

next year for example the Mich game will be awesome. If we lose that game though along with say UGA and Fla and have 3 losses we are going to be in this same shitty scenario. We have the best win all year my many opinions and it still likely wont be enough. 

This is where I'm at (other than losing to Fla because that's not happening). It's exactly what Bama is facing this year. Play a tough OOC opponent, get beat, go undefeated the rest of the way & win your conference & you still need help.

Next year it won't keep that team out of the playoffs, but it could very well be the difference between having a first round bye or not. Or, if you add another loss, the difference between having home field advantage in the first round or not. It'd be much better for your playoff chances to just not schedule those games & go 10-2 or 11-1. 

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Just now, Dahobbs said:

It is a scenario that would be good for us, but you're really putting almost all of your eggs in the Louisville basket. There is no reason not to root for Oregon and Iowa as well. We have a less of chance of advancing if Washington wins on Friday. It really is that simple. 

you root for EVERY scenario that has Texas in on that chart, this one is just the "most fun one" IMHO

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11 minutes ago, joeycovers said:

I cant think of one situation where scheduling tough OOC games has helped the team that won make the playoffs. It has only hurt them when they lose.  Maybe Ohio St/Ou the year they split is the only one but not sure. 

 

next year for example the Mich game will be awesome. If we lose that game though along with say UGA and Fla and have 3 losses we are going to be in this same shitty scenario. We have the best win all year my many opinions and it still likely wont be enough. 

Next year, with CFP games on campuses, tough OOC games, especially on the road, will be the best way to prepare for hitting the road in the CFP if seeded 9, 10, 11 or 12. 

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4 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Lville win is the best chacne for Texas to get in, but not the only

Lets look a this logically:

1. Michigan vs Iowa.... Michigan wins the are a stone cold lock to get in.. Iowa loss opens up a slot in the playoffs. In that scenario, Texas has a better chance to make the playoffs with a Iowa win (highly unlikely).. So rooting for Michigan would be counterproductive to increasing Texas's chance of making the playoffs

2. UGa vs Bama. UGa is a lock. 100% certainty they get in over Texas.. Texas has head to head over Bama, so a Bama win helps the Texas resume... You can believe that Bama gets in over Texas, but not with 100% certainty. Root for Bama

3. Wash vs Oregon.. This is the same.. Washington is a 100% lock to get in over Texas with a win. Oregon maybe 95% chance to get in over Texas, but it is not 100% like Washington.. Root for Oregon

4.. WE all agree on Lville vs FSU

You have more faith than me if Bama wins. I feel like they aren’t leaving out the SEC champ no matter what. 

their justification- 

Bama win vs. Georgia > Texas win vs. Bama

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1 minute ago, idigTexas said:

I'm rooting for Nix and Penix to be knocked out in the first quarter for the rest of the season, and for Oregon to win 6-2 with both teams turning the ball over 5 times.  

I'm rooting for OT that doesn't end until the Playoffs start so the committee just leaves both teams out.

Just now, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

You have more faith than me if Bama wins. I feel like they aren’t leaving out the SEC champ no matter what. 

their justification- 

Bama win vs. Georgia > Texas win vs. Bama

I share this sentiment, but there is room for debate here IMO. 

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4 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

You have more faith than me if Bama wins. I feel like they aren’t leaving out the SEC champ no matter what. 

their justification- 

Bama win vs. Georgia > Texas win vs. Bama

You dont need faith. This shit is simple. Texas has 0% chance of getting in over an undefeated Georgia.. We can argue over the odds of Texas vs Baama for the last spot, but Bama doesnt have a 100% chance to get in over Texas...  Texas has 0% chance to get in over undefeated teams. Texas has somewhere between a 1%-99% chance to get in over a 1 loss team. Even if you think it is a 1% chance, that is still greater than 0%

Edited by Codaxx
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1 hour ago, immamac said:

 

Is this a fucking joke? You think they take Texas over bama knocking off #1 Georgia in the SECCG? What world do you live in where you think beating the #1 ranked team in the country doesn’t get you into the playoffs? You think they intentionally didn’t put Michigan in that top spot literally for this discussion point? 

The odds of us getting in over UGA are slim and I put money on it (and I’d say very slim to the point of infinitesimal). But, they’re not joking. They are resolute in their absolutism. It’s baffling. 

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6 minutes ago, immamac said:

you root for EVERY scenario that has Texas in on that chart, this one is just the "most fun one" IMHO

Then you need to write better.

Iowa -- stone cold preference

Louisville -- stone cold preference

 

Then it gets weird.  Don't come in here scolding people for their versions of lunacy when you basically say "this is what we want" when it is ABSOLUTELY not what we want, for fuck's sake.

I thought times were bad when Syntex was running the numbers.

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9 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Yeah, that's where I'm at. Quick question -- do our rooting interests change if Oregon beats Washington as expected on Friday night?

(Obviously, an Iowa win does nothing but help everybody so technically we're all Hawkeyes fans on Saturday night.)

Changed my mind. Obviously, we're all rooting for Iowa but it won't happen. Beyond that, I agree we need spots to open up so therefore an Oregon win helps. Bama beating Georgia helps. Louisville beating FSU puts Texas in without a doubt if Texas wins Big 12. There are five conference championship games being played this weekend. In addition to us beating OkSt, we need either Louisville to win or two of Iowa/Bama/Oregon to win, yes?

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45 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

You disagree with head-to-head results, given two P5 conference champs with identical records?  OK, I guess.

Doesn’t much matter what I think. I absolutely know the committee will have Bama jump us and probably to the 2 spot. Like it’s not even a question they will be in. 

If that’s so funny, @jimmyjazz, lay money down. Offer me a bet. 

Edited by Jewish Wang
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5 minutes ago, immamac said:

you root for EVERY scenario that has Texas in on that chart, this one is just the "most fun one" IMHO

Any scenario with Texas is acceptable. I'm just saying you can't root for every scenario with Texas because the games aren't played at the same time. Oregon/Washington comes up first. The only thing we can do is root for Oregon because it increases our chances, even if marginally, to make the playoffs. The same is true for Alabama/Georgia. Root for Alabama because it increases our changes of advancing. This would all be a lot easier if the ACC champ was Friday and Louisville won. Then, you'd could root for whatever you want the rest of the games in terms of idea matchups because we'd already be in (with a win). 

12 minutes ago, immamac said:

This is a Texas fan's dream Playoff scenario, who gives a fuck about the Oregon ducks - I'd rather play Washigton.

No. Washington is bad matchup for us. Any team that is willing to completely abandon the run and just throw 50-60 times in a game is going to cause us problems. We matchup better with the more balanced teams. 

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Putting the obvious benefit to Texas aside, Iowa winning would be one of the funniest outcomes in a very long time. Kirk Ferentz finally gives in to the pressure to let go of his son only to watch him call the game of a lifetime with both middle fingers up on the way out the door. 

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29 minutes ago, hook me said:

By slotting OSU between us the committee has made its plan clear w/ regards to championship weekend. For those saying "these rankings don't matter until the last one" you're just wrong because the committee is going to base their next set of rankings off of this one + new results. Will we jump OSU with a win? Most likely yes, but they've eliminated any debate that we could have had over whether or not we could win impressively enough to jump UO should they win in an ugly manner. Their reasoning? Because UO dispatched of Oregon St. with ease which is another PAC team that the committee really respects. How do we know that? Because they were ranked 11 a couple of weeks ago before their close loss to UW (and because the CFP chair literally said so). The committee isn't setting us up for a complete upheaval of the top 5 this week unless complete chaos ensues. We know exactly where everyone stands & the only result that may change things is a Bama upset over UGA. Otherwise you're going to get UM, UW/UO, FSU/UT, & UGA. And UT better not limp to the finish line vs. OKST because it's pretty clear that they don't respect UTs SOS as it is.

Totally agreed. The tOSU ranking is a big big deal being willfully ignored by posters here.  

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2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

FSU is the possible outlier there, but yeah, it's remote.  Really remote.

I would have such a problem with any 1-loss team going over an undefeated FSU.

If FSU beats UF (done) and top-15 Louisville with their backup, they should be in.  You win all your games + CCG as a P5, you're in.  Everytime. 

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11 minutes ago, immamac said:

This is actually debatable though, Texas going in over Oregon is not. That was my point earlier in the thread. 

It’s been explained a million times, but why the hell not. Texas, Michigan, Alabama, Oregon and Louisville win.

Michigan is locked. The committee thinks Alabama and Georgia are 2 of the best 4 (taking into account Georgia’s incredible 3 year run, as you’ve pointed out), so they want to find a way to put in both. They can’t get over putting Bama over Texas given head to head. So they justify Texas jumping Oregon by our win over Alabama looking that much better by virtue of Alabama beating Georgia. Michigan, Texas, Alabama and Georgia go in, Oregon gets fucked.
 

It’s unlikely (and Georgia going in would be unprecedented (albeit a small sample size)), but it’s not 0%. The reality is that the committee can do whatever the fuck they want and find justification for it. 

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6 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

The odds of us getting in over UGA are slim and I put money on it (and I’d say very slim to the point of infinitesimal). But, they’re not joking. They are resolute in their absolutism. It’s baffling. 

??? If Bama beats UGA, we're definitely getting in over UGA if those are the options (FSU or Michigan loses). No one thinks we get in over UGA if UGA wins. 

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It's really not that complicated. We aren't jumping Oregon regardless of what we think should happen. Our only chances are:

1. FSU loses and UGA wins - almost definitely in

2. FSU loses and Bama wins - Probably in but could the committee go full-SEC and put UGA and Bama in over us? Tbh it's possible. Hard to leave UGA out and Bama has to jump them.

3. FSU wins and Bama wins - comes down to Texas vs Bama. Pretty much a coin flip what these idiots would decide but I don't feel great about the chances of them completely leaving out the SEC.

So yeah - #1 is clearly the best case scenario. The others are all still dicey. Again, this isn't what I think should be the case in a fair world, it's just the reality.

Of course, none of this matters if we don't take care of business vs Ok St. Let's worry about that first..

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  • immamac changed the title to THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

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