Jump to content

Week 14, 2023, Texas v Washington, College Football Playoff Edition


Wulaw Horn

Recommended Posts

Yeah, that last point is pretty salient. I feel like many times our struggles on offense, in particular the sacks, are because Quinn gets fixated on waiting for his primary read to open up deep rather than just taking the easy candy underneath. He was much better about it against Ok State and even Tech. 
He was much better because neither of those teams provided consistent pressure. If our O-line can give Quinn a clean pocket most of the time he can find a checkdown.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the question of whom to double cover is situational, but I think most situations demand doubling Worthy. The one exception is maybe money downs, but generally, you double Worthy because he will score if you don’t. You can usually tackle Mitchell unless he’s already in the end zone. You’re not catching Worthy in the open field. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Chili dog said:

I think the question of whom to double cover is situational, but I think most situations demand doubling Worthy. The one exception is maybe money downs, but generally, you double Worthy because he will score if you don’t. You can usually tackle Mitchell unless he’s already in the end zone. You’re not catching Worthy in the open field. 

Makes sense.  What doesn't make sense are the draft evaluations.  Odunze is ranked as high as a top 10 pick, mainly because he will supposedly test (4.3 speed) really well at the combine.  But I can't think of one instance where he makes people look like they're running in sand like Worthy does.  

Worthy seems to have that Tyreek play speed in highlights.  Seems like that should be pretty coveted in the NFL.  But I've seen Mitchell as having a higher draft grade as well.  

  • Hook 'Em 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Makes sense.  What doesn't make sense are the draft evaluations.  Odunze is ranked as high as a top 10 pick, mainly because he will supposedly test (4.3 speed) really well at the combine.  But I can't think of one instance where he makes people look like they're running in sand like Worthy does.  

Worthy seems to have that Tyreek play speed in highlights.  Seems like that should be pretty coveted in the NFL.  But I've seen Mitchell as having a higher draft grade as well.  

Speed is fantastic, NFL wants consistency, hands, effort and athleticism.

Worthy will absolutely get a look and PT, but as others have noted he doesn't love go fetch with a crowd. 

Edited by BurntEyes
Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, ousux said:
46 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:
Yeah, that last point is pretty salient. I feel like many times our struggles on offense, in particular the sacks, are because Quinn gets fixated on waiting for his primary read to open up deep rather than just taking the easy candy underneath. He was much better about it against Ok State and even Tech. 

He was much better because neither of those teams provided consistent pressure. If our O-line can give Quinn a clean pocket most of the time he can find a checkdown.

Eh, the times I'm thinking of didn't involve any real pocket pressure. He had plenty of time and a decent enough pocket. He just gets stuck looking deep sometimes. I think it is partly because we don't actually attack deep that often so he really wants to take those shots when they are called. Hell, that may be something that Sark wants as well. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Eh, the times I'm thinking of didn't involve any real pocket pressure. He had plenty of time and a decent enough pocket. He just gets stuck looking deep sometimes. I think it is partly because we don't actually attack deep that often so he really wants to take those shots when they are called. Hell, that may be something that Sark wants as well. 
I know exactly what you're talking about, but he did get much better at checkdowns the last 3 games. Hope it carries over to the Sugar Bowl.
  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

yeah, it's our biggest rival.  And they get all the love from the media.  But the reason for all my UO talk in this forum is because it's the only team that is reasonably comparable to UT that we've played.  

Moving on from UO, if you were UW, do you think it's more important to double team Worthy or Mitchell?

My casual fan eyes think that Mitchell looks to be more important to contain.  Worthy will definitely make our team look like they're running in sand.  But something about the Mitchell highlights tell me he's just as dangerous, if not more.  

The answer is Worthy, as others have said, but one thing here is that I think 'doubling' is going to mean different things for Mitchell and Worthy. 

For Mitchell, you can bracket him and take away the standard route tree. 

For Worthy, it's going to require more from the game plan, formations, and secondary communication, because Sark is going to move him around. Our goal is to get him the ball in space. He's going to motion a lot and will almost certainly catch several screen passes in the game. He's also good running routes down the field of course. It's like guarding a Steph in basketball - he creates gravity that demands attention all the time, not just a double while he has the ball. 

TCU this year tried to play Worthy straight up with a future NFL draft pick in Josh Newton and Worthy absolutely abused him. 

1 hour ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Thanks.  I was thinking that if it were 4th and 10 at the end of the game and all our receivers had equal amounts of separation, Penix is throwing to Odunze for sure.  

And that same situation if I were a Texas fan, I think I'd want Ewers to throw it to Mitchell.  But I've only seen a few games.  Just wondering if you guys would agree. 

I really trust all four of our top guys, but Whittington and Sanders are the best at finding soft spots on medium-to-long money downs

52 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Makes sense.  What doesn't make sense are the draft evaluations.  Odunze is ranked as high as a top 10 pick, mainly because he will supposedly test (4.3 speed) really well at the combine.  But I can't think of one instance where he makes people look like they're running in sand like Worthy does.  

Worthy seems to have that Tyreek play speed in highlights.  Seems like that should be pretty coveted in the NFL.  But I've seen Mitchell as having a higher draft grade as well.  

Personally, I view Worthy similarly. I think he'll rise on boards and that our fanbase somewhat underrates him because of some pretty bad moments last year and some NIL shenanigans. I definitely think he'll go ahead of Mitchell. It's still too early for a lot of the draft mocks and analysts to have caught up to the season

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just saw this breakdown on ESPN with some good insight into the Huskies team.  They say that the UW linebackers and secondary are just not at the same level as the other 3 playoff teams.  

Considering that Ewers had 370 yards passing in the Alamo bowl as an inexperienced QB and a #1 receiver with the dropsies, it could very well be that the UT passing game will be the true juggernaut in this game.  

 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

yeah, it's our biggest rival.  And they get all the love from the media.  But the reason for all my UO talk in this forum is because it's the only team that is reasonably comparable to UT that we've played.  

Moving on from UO, if you were UW, do you think it's more important to double team Worthy or Mitchell?

My casual fan eyes think that Mitchell looks to be more important to contain.  Worthy will definitely make our team look like they're running in sand.  But something about the Mitchell highlights tell me he's just as dangerous, if not more.  

It’s Worthy. Mitchell is very good at WR things. Routes and catching the ball. Worthy is a TD waiting to happen. He struggles making contested catches (he is like 160 pounds), but give him any space and he can make it a TD. I would guess Washington will play to stop explosive plays. Force Sark to be patient, which he can struggle with. Your DC said something about that last year.  It’s one reason I think the Texas run game could be the difference in the game. If they can run consistently, that will put your defense in a bind. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Just saw this breakdown on ESPN with some good insight into the Huskies team.  They say that the UW linebackers and secondary are just not at the same level as the other 3 playoff teams.  

Considering that Ewers had 370 yards passing in the Alamo bowl as an inexperienced QB and a #1 receiver with the dropsies, it could very well be that the UT passing game will be the true juggernaut in this game.  

 

To make you feel better, Penix and your receivers are absolutely great at deep ball/contested catch situations. I think you convert like 44% of them. Against lesser passing competition, we give up those at a 40+% clip. So yeah, yeah, strength on weakness right there. That said, despite allowing completions when those deep passes take place, we do a fairly good job of limiting their occurrence through pressure and our coverage. We like to invite the underneath stuff and then rally to ball while playing the run game with a light box. 

Edited by Dahobbs
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

To make you feel better, Penix and your receivers are absolutely great at deep ball/contested catch situations. I think you convert like 44% of them. Against lesser passing competition, we give up those at a 40+% clip. So yeah, yeah, strength on weakness right there. That said, despite allowing completions when those deep passes take place, we do a fairly good job of limiting their occurrence through pressure and our coverage. We like to invite the underneath stuff and then rally to ball while playing the run game with a light box. 

The biggest difference between last year’s defense and this year’s is situational defense. Texas was 94th in opponent 3rd down conversions last year, they are 2nd in the nation this year.  They are 12th in red zone TD percentage. Last years defense was solid, but struggled to get off the field (lots of long drives). This year’s defense gets off the field 

  • Hook 'Em 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

The biggest difference between last year’s defense and this year’s is situational defense. Texas was 94th in opponent 3rd down conversions last year, they are 2nd in the nation this year.  They are 12th in red zone TD percentage. Last years defense was solid, but struggled to get off the field (lots of long drives). This year’s defense gets off the field 

Part of the reason they're so much better on third is that we force a lot more 3rd and +6 yards this year too. I know that's super hot and brilliant observation but it's an important fact. It's in no small part to due to great play at the LOS.

Edited by BurntEyes
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Not homerish at all.  Just the truth.  Honestly, the main advantage your offense has over ours is the TE.  Our TE is serviceable at catching and makes some good plays.  But he's a walk-on that played a total of 2 high school football games before walking on at UW.  Not quite the same level instilled fear that Sanders brings haha. 

UW has the better WR corps. Sanders at TE is more of an equalizer than an edge IMHO. I like our guys for YAC because they’re quick. But Odunze is one of the best at making the play while covered and Polk is pretty damn dangerous there as well. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, sushihorn said:

UW has the better WR corps. Sanders at TE is more of an equalizer than an edge IMHO. I like our guys for YAC because they’re quick. But Odunze is one of the best at making the play while covered and Polk is pretty damn dangerous there as well. 

imo, our offenses are basically a draw.  You have an advantage at TE (e.g. 2nd best behind Bowers from what I hear) and we have a more experienced QB.  

Defenses definitely your advantage, on paper.  Hence the 4.5 line in your favor.  Count in the 80/20 home field advantage and it will definitely be our biggest challenge.  

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Part of the reason they're so much better on third is that we force a lot more 3rd and +6 yards this year too. I know that's super hot and brilliant observation but it's an important fact. It's in no small part to due to great play at the LOS.

I think 3rd and long has been no problem for Penick.  The entire D will need to manufacture some stops/TO’s

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, nbmishoid said:

I think 3rd and long has been no problem for Penick.  The entire D will need to manufacture some stops/TO’s

I think Penix is definitely the best QB we have and hopefully will face, by a goodly margin. Counter point, Washington really hasn't seen a defense of our quality. From a defensive standpoint it really comes down to whether or not we can get pressure on Penix without blitzing. May seem that simplistic and there obviously a lot of nuances that have already been covered in this thread by folks with a higher football IQ than me. However, at the end of the day that's item one.

Item two, which I really think more important, is whether or not Sark will keep the gas peddle down on offense if we get a lead of more than 10 points. I think we WILL get a lead, and actually grow it into the 3rd beyond this year's historical. BUT... that's when I fear Sark pull his foot off. Hope I'm wrong. 

I think we can win either way (though it's definitely NOT a given), but keeping UW on its heals in the early 4th defensively.. turns into a completely different game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

 

btw, appreciate the comments about talking football instead of mindless drivel.  I agree it's fun to talk and learn about other teams in a civil way.  

As I said, I never post on message boards because of the trolls, but some of you guys seemed to long for a non-troll opposing team perspective.  So I took a chance. 

And, to be completely transparent, all my non-troll friends, in the lead up to the Pac 12 championship game had zero confidence we would win.  One even said he'd bet his house that we'd lose by double digits haha.

So all in all, I have no clue what I'm talking about.  But I just can't wait for this game, so going stir crazy and need to talk about it.  

Have you given a prediction yet?

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Texasborn91 said:

Have you given a prediction yet?

My only prediction right now is that it will be close game that hinges on an untimely mistake or penalties, with no clue which way it will go.  I know that's not bold.  But it's bolder than what I had predicted for the Pac 12 CG.  I thought we were going to lose that game by more than 1 score.  

But as a tortured Seattle sports fan, that game has given me some confidence that we at least have a puncher's chance in the playoff.  That's usually when the downfall happens.  Sucks to be a sports fan at times haha.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

 

btw, appreciate the comments about talking football instead of mindless drivel.  I agree it's fun to talk and learn about other teams in a civil way.  

As I said, I never post on message boards because of the trolls, but some of you guys seemed to long for a non-troll opposing team perspective.  So I took a chance. 

And, to be completely transparent, all my non-troll friends, in the lead up to the Pac 12 championship game had zero confidence we would win.  One even said he'd bet his house that we'd lose by double digits haha.

So all in all, I have no clue what I'm talking about.  But I just can't wait for this game, so going stir crazy and need to talk about it.  

I don’t really want Bama again because of the rematch dynamic. Ou fans here were initially worried about a rematch in the big 12 championship for the same reason, then they shit the bed. I’m not a big fan of rematches in CFB tbqh. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 As long as the trade came with a pirate eye patch then I wholeheartedly approve. 
 
yes WA struggled down the stretch. Texas did not as much even improved red zone scoring. 
 
in the end it’s 18-22 year olds with a change in routine and a ton of publicity and pressure. so this one to me has unpredictability written all over it. There’s nothing to evidentially prove WA will continue its struggle or Texas won’t.  Trends exist yes, but trends are broken all the time. 
 
and conference comparisons are always hard. Who the teams play is 100% insular except at the beginning of the season and at the very end (bowl games). 

There are statistical facts that are fairly reliable like Texas stopping the run and the likelihood both Texas and WA score in the low 30’s with both qb’s passing well.

But man I wouldn’t bet on any part of this game. 

We’re talking in circles around this game because there’s a month to do so but your middle paragraph is the bottom line. Both teams have impressive bodies of work and are elite at what they do well; they are also both well equipped to exploit the others’ weaknesses, and have struggled with consistency throughout the year.

Add a month layoff and two of the best offensive coaches in the game to that and we really have no idea what we are going to see. As is usually the case with games like this, whoever takes care of the ball better and makes fewer mental/execution errors will likely win. Beyond that, we’ll find out on Jan 1. The only thing in confident of is wild overreaction to the first series.
  • Hook 'Em 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, troph said:

I don’t really want Bama again because of the rematch dynamic. Ou fans here were initially worried about a rematch in the big 12 championship for the same reason, then they shit the bed. I’m not a big fan of rematches in CFB tbqh. 

"On paper" I think we match up better against Bama, but I concur about not wanting a re-match no matter how good their QB isn't. Also, I want to have beaten all the P5 champs. Finally, agreed, as a college football fan, re-matches suck. 

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

My only request for y'all is let us have this one and you guys get next year, while we are replacing our whole team and putting a noodle armed QB at the helm haha.  

I've never even seen Will Rogers play but I've heard he has a noodle arm compared to Penix. 

Nah.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Our upside is higher on both sides of the ball in my opinion.

No support for this, but on run downs I don’t think you’ll be able to encourage our interior defenders upfield to use that against them. To succeed against our run D, you’ve got to get your front 5 to the second level. When our edge guys are on, that’s very difficult. Sweat doesn’t beat you with quickness to the backfield. He’s pretty solid at incapacitating the guy in front of him to get there. Our pass rush discipline hopefully is good which may allow for good run game integrity too.

I’d be surprised if we’re doing much differently this game. Similar personnel. 5 DBs. We should be as healthy as we have all year. That’s not to say, we won’t mix it up, but the plan will be to keep you on your toes and have long drives rather than quick strike scores.

Offensively as others have mentioned, you can’t leave Worthy alone 1 v 1. When you do, it best be with some confusion because you’re beat if that’s the pre snap read. When our offense is right, you have to cover the entirety of the field. Sark has a great screen game. The beauty of it is that we have 5/6 guys that can hurt you on the receiving end. We probably are weakest offensively hitting the deep ball. QE is best at 10-20 yards. You can dare us to hit the deep ball. And we might actually do that. This offense is primed to play their best.

I always find discussions on Worthy a bit humorous. It is accurate that he’s not a 50/50 ball guy. He’s physical with the ball in his hands though. But it seems to get forgotten that he had what 12 TDs as a frosh. And probably missed 5 more, not of his doing but complete air balls. That was against 3 top 10 defenses. Bama couldn’t handle him. You need to account for him on every play, and I’ve yet to see 1 guy be able to do it.

UW has some great players and great coaching. They can certainly win. They’ll have to play a great game to do so.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

My only request for y'all is let us have this one and you guys get next year, while we are replacing our whole team and putting a noodle armed QB at the helm haha.  

I've never even seen Will Rogers play but I've heard he has a noodle arm compared to Penix. 

Wait till you check out the rest of what this board has to offer. You may just never leave. Hahaha

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

See, I can understand why you’d believe that given your team’s 7 one score wins this season. I’m not so sure about Washington’s defense being able to keep a lid on our offense 

I guess my prediction is more bold than originally thought then. But yes, agree that if you guys run over our OL, then it will get pretty ugly in UT's favor.  I don't see our defense putting a lid on you.  We played our best defensive game of the season and still only won by 3 points and gave up 30.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, BurntEyes said:

There is a 100% chance of black hole implosion or coke & Molly super model sex level euphoria on this very board by 2 minutes in.

1st & 10: Screen pass to Worthy blown up because Mitchell didn’t come to UT to block. (implosion imminent) 

2nd & 12: Sanders to the flat. Well covered so Ewers tucks it for 5 yards. (3…2…1…)

3rd & 7: Ewers throws dig route complete to Mitchell for 10 yards and a first down. (we are the greatest team of all time)

5 plays later we punt and we start looking for our new OC during the commercial break and wondering just how many TDs Arch would have gotten us on that first drive and how big of a deficit he could lead us back from in the 4th.

 

  • Haha 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Makes sense.  What doesn't make sense are the draft evaluations.  Odunze is ranked as high as a top 10 pick, mainly because he will supposedly test (4.3 speed) really well at the combine.  But I can't think of one instance where he makes people look like they're running in sand like Worthy does.  

Worthy seems to have that Tyreek play speed in highlights.  Seems like that should be pretty coveted in the NFL.  But I've seen Mitchell as having a higher draft grade as well.  

Odunze has X’s speed with Mitchell’s size. At least he does on paper. I would draft Worthy over Mitchell, but they’re both fantastic. Mitchell gets the benefit of single coverage a lot because DCs are doubling X. And I understand GMs loving odunze over both of them. He’s a pretty special player with traits you can’t coach. 

Edited by Chili dog
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Hornius Emeritus said:


That was a great game and would have been even if Washington had won. An incredible game. 

EDIT: It's amazing how that game looks like it was filmed in 1913.

I had never seen it on film until tonight.  My favorite game that I have ever attended, maybe 04 Okie state was more fun.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/16/2023 at 9:44 AM, Pimphand said:

The song girl travels through time cheering on heinous historical events was probably hornfans.com peak moment.  Side note I just went over there and sure enough somehow that site is still online and people still post lol.

woah, i just went there for the first time in close to a decade. i’m shocked how active it is.  i figured it wasn’t even still around 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, TommyGufano said:

Is Washington the first ever Adidas school to make the CFP? And can we expect an altered jersey?

Were they an Adidas school the last time they made it last time?

What brand was Notre Dame with when they made it? Under Armor?

Cincy is/was UA when they made it. 

Edited by BurntOrange&White
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Pancho locked this topic
  • Pancho unlocked this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...