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2018 Houston Astros Season Thread


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if my numbers are correct, and i like to think that they are, our staff (including ken giles) now has a season era of 2.90.

for those scoring at home, that's good enough for 9th place in the al, behind two astros, and just ahead of charlie morton (2.96), and behind corey kluber (2.74).

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if my numbers are correct, and i like to think that they are, our staff (including ken giles) now has a season era of 2.90.
for those scoring at home, that's good enough for 9th place in the al, behind two astros, and just ahead of charlie morton (2.96), and behind corey kluber (2.74).

Bullpen has an ERA of 2.74, 0.25 better than the starters. Mez needs lasik.
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59 minutes ago, runthebone said:

These bullpen defenders have all their stats then leave out the fact it has the worst clutch rating by a shitton. 

Link:. https://climbingtalshill.com/2018/07/19/astros-bullpen-help-top-priority-trade-deadline-looms/

 

Interesting. I looked a little closer at this rating by individual player, and there seems to be a lot of variance. For example, Peacock has a very poor clutch rating this year, but has mostly been neutral for his career. I wonder if this rating truly captures actual characteristics of players or units (which could be predictive) or if it is mostly noise (not actual trends, just mostly random variation)?

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20 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Interesting. I looked a little closer at this rating by individual player, and there seems to be a lot of variance. For example, Peacock has a very poor clutch rating this year, but has mostly been neutral for his career. I wonder if this rating truly captures actual characteristics of players or units (which could be predictive) or if it is mostly noise (not actual trends, just mostly random variation)?

it's noise

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I don't think it's totally noise, it is descriptive but not necessarily predictive.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/clutch/

 

Given the fact that this bullpen was great in the regular season last year then shit the bed in the postseason—and that the Astros won despite the bullpen, not because of it—it is the obvious place for an upgrade along with LF and perhaps C.

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If I understand correctly, this clutch stat measures how well a player/team performs in high leverage situations compared to its/his normal performance. So if you are unworldly normally but merely good in high leverage, you will have a negative clutch rating. Conversely, if a team/player is mediocre in high leverage but awful normally then they will have positive clutch number.

 

Seems like noise.

 

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1 hour ago, runthebone said:

They are leaving out a statistic that quantifies and justifies the nervousness the rest of us feel about this bullpen in the postseason.  

This implies that their current clutch rating has a strong influence over or indicative  of their future clutch rating, which isn’t correct. 

Edited by Fozzz
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1 hour ago, runthebone said:

No, that's not what I implied at all.  

Then how does the pen’s current clutch score justify your neverousness about the bullpen in the postseason?  If their current clutch score is not predictive of their clutch score in the future then what is the point of citing that statistic?

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What I said is that it explains why so many of us feel that the bullpen, despite having good overall mean numbers, seems to shit the bed unexpectedly often.  As in this season.

I think there is plenty of reason to be nervous about this bullpen in the postseason.  Unless you are "implying" that the past is meaningless and that literally only this exact moment in time matters.

 

 

Edited by runthebone
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