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2018 Hurricane Season


Lobwedgephil

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  • 3 weeks later...

We are not usually watching the tropics this time of the year in Texas, but this is something to keep an eye on:

file.php?id=14561&t=1

 

Side Note: Some of the models are indicating an area of low
pressure or tropical disturbance moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico by mid next week. At this time, the track and direct
impacts of this feature cannot be determined. Please continue to
monitor your local NWS forecast. 

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48 minutes ago, Dewey said:

According to my local news guy, that yellow x, if it gets back together, will head towards Fla.

According to MY local weather guy, if that yellow X gets its act together, it will hang a left and go into Mexico.

 

Edited by Stella Link
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4 hours ago, Dewey said:

Last week around Wednesday or Thursday, not many gave it a chance, 30 knot wind sheer and all. Fuck.

When you see those "chance of development" models with the funny looking MSPaint-looking hand-drawn amateur looking area, or just read the "chance of development" stuff, I'd say it's wrong about 55% of the time.  The technology to predict development is still not real good.  They go by essentially seeing what the weather conditions will be in the area (shear, what systems are around it, etc.) a week out.  But what actually makes a hurricane form vs. one that doesn't is still not real predictable.

I usually don't pay attention to them, but I unfortunately did with Harvey - they gave that like a 10% chance of forming up to about  3 days before it did, had it going into southern Mexico or even below that, and petering out.

Yeah, that went well.

ANY time a system forms in the Gulf, if it lasts longer than a week in any form, it's a candidate in my book.  This one is on about its 8th day.

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39 minutes ago, Hollywood said:

I am supposed to fly into Fort Lauderdale tomorrow around 1p. FLL largely won't be affected, but I assume that we will just fly way the fuck around it? First time flying over or around a major hurricane, so not sure how this works. 

Usually if you're at altitude, they don't really go around them much.  There's a good breeze up there but nothing unusual.  I've flown above hurricanes a bunch.  Generally as long as you stay away from the eye area, where big thunderstorms can reach higher than the average 35,000-40,000 feet where commercial airlines cruise, there is really no difference between flying above a hurricane and any other storm.  Most of the turbluence of a hurricane is thrust downward towards the surface.  Yes there is air that filters up and out from a hurricane, but for the most part that air is stable and not all that fast once it gets above the worst of a hurricane (about 20,000 feet).  Sometimes there is turbulence above a hurricane, but again, most of it is below the average cruising altitude of a hurricane.  I actually flew through and above Harvey last year (when it was downgraded, but still a strong storm), and it wasn't any different than flying through a rainstorm.  Of course this was away from the center of circulation, which was still pretty potent - don't want to fly through that. Here's a shot I took:

harveywing.jpg

In the eye area, however, it can get pretty nasty - not necessarily enough to cause a plane to crash (remember that hurricane hunters have been flying through the worst of hurricanes for over 70 years and have never lost a plane!) but enough to scare the shit out of you with this or that jolt.  However, again, other than actually having to land in or near the eye, hurricanes aren't particularly a problem for flying over.

Edited by phdhorn
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1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

Usually if you're at altitude, they don't really go around them much.  There's a good breeze up there but nothing unusual.  I've flown above hurricanes a bunch.  Generally as long as you stay away from the eye area, where big thunderstorms can reach higher than the average 35,000-40,000 feet where commercial airlines cruise, there is really no difference between flying above a hurricane and any other storm.  Most of the turbluence of a hurricane is thrust downward towards the surface.  Yes there is air that filters up and out from a hurricane, but for the most part that air is stable and not all that fast once it gets above the worst of a hurricane (about 20,000 feet).  Sometimes there is turbulence above a hurricane, but again, most of it is below the average cruising altitude of a hurricane.  I actually flew through and above Harvey last year (when it was downgraded, but still a strong storm), and it wasn't any different than flying through a rainstorm.  Of course this was away from the center of circulation, which was still pretty potent - don't want to fly through that. Here's a shot I took:



In the eye area, however, it can get pretty nasty - not necessarily enough to cause a plane to crash (remember that hurricane hunters have been flying through the worst of hurricanes for over 70 years and have never lost a plane!) but enough to scare the shit out of you with this or that jolt.  However, again, other than actually having to land in or near the eye, hurricanes aren't particularly a problem for flying over.

Cool, crashing is fine. I just don't want to be stuck on a plane for 6 hours. 

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On 10/8/2018 at 5:51 PM, Neonmoon said:

Sooooo...my flight to Pensacola on Friday going to happen or no? 

Yep should be no problem.  I'm at PNS now flying to ATL.  The Wed AM flights to ATL are cancelled (Delta), but by Friday should be no issue. Landfall is 120 east of here.

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2 hours ago, 3adays said:

I have a buddy and his girl who are on vacation in Destin. I told him to GTFO yesterday morning, but they just moved hotels instead.  Hope he understands what they’re in for.

That was a really bad move.  Most of the power lines along 98 in Destin are above ground and relatively old.  Destin is going to get nailed as is 30A.

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