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2018-2019 Astros Offseason Thread


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Don't know what the baseball nerds see in this guy but unless they're trying to save 5 million to put toward Goldy or another big bat, I don't like it. My love hate with Luhnow is very real. Hopefully I will love him again after the winter meetings. Have to believe there is a means to an end. The only upside I see is the Crawford boxes may play well for Chirinos as a RH pull hitter. 

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Couple thoughts on Chirinos:

1. Probably the only option among the catcher FA's that could be had on an affordable, 1-year deal. Grandal & Ramos probably looking for commitments of at least 3/30. And obviously we weren't willing to pay Marlins asking price for JTR.

Tells me we're willing to settle for a makeshift platoon at C in order to prioritize other off-season needs. I'll wait to come to a final judgment until I see what happens between now and Spring Training.

2. Chirinos hits better at MMP than just about anywhere else. Career slash of .254/.368/.556 in 76 PA at the juice box. 

3. I strongly believe that getting better production from 1B/DH/LF is offseason priority 1B. Improving at least 2 of those 3 positions is only slightly less important than getting a #3 starter. The 2018 offense was considerably inferior to 2017, but the pitching was excellent enough to carry us.

I don't for a second think Luhnow believes it, or expects any serious Astros fan to believe it, when he says stuff like "always looking to improve the team, but don't feel like we HAVE to make any moves and would be comfortable starting the season with the squad we have now." If we're counting on Yuli, White, and Tucker/Kemp/Marisnick to provide the majority of AB's at those 3 positions, yikes.

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30 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

1. Probably the only option among the catcher FA's that could be had on an affordable, 1-year deal. Grandal & Ramos probably looking for commitments of at least 3/30. And obviously we weren't willing to pay Marlins asking price for JTR.

But why do we need to sign a catcher shitty enough to be willing to sign an affordable 1 year deal?  They have money to spend. I'd much rather have spent a bit more on Maldonado. 

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The Astros Have a New Catcher

By: Jeff Sullivan

I’m going to remind you that, last season, the league-average catcher posted an 84 wRC+. The league-average position player posted a 100 wRC+. By definition, it is always 100. Catchers, by and large, cannot hit. Robinson Chirinos hit pretty well as the Rangers’ regular catcher, notching a 103 wRC+ in his age-34 season. It was his fourth straight year of quality hitting, in a career-high amount of playing time. So it was surprising when the Rangers declined to pick up Chirinos’ $4.5-million option for next year. The Rangers aren’t going anywhere, so it hardly matters in the grand scheme of things, but Chirinos was more good than bad, and $4.5 million isn’t much.

Chirinos now has found a new home, and he’s remaining in Texas. The Astros have signed him to a one-year deal, and although I don’t know the terms, let’s assume it’s around $4 – 5 million. The exciting thing for the Astros is that Chirinos makes them better. What’s less exciting is that Chirinos isn’t J.T. Realmuto.

 

 

As Kiley McDaniel noted earlier, the potential Realmuto trade market has been busy, and not necessarily by keeping in touch with the Marlins. The Astros looked like a fit for Realmuto, and now they have Chirinos. The Rays looked like a fit for Realmuto, and now they have Mike Zunino. The Nationals looked like a fit for Realmuto, and now they have Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki. The Braves looked like a fit for Realmuto, and now they have Brian McCann.

Granted, there are other possible suitors, like the Mets, the Dodgers, the Brewers, and the Rockies, to list a few. Realmuto remains in demand. And the Astros might not have even closed the door, since, in theory, they could trade for Realmuto by including Max Stassi. This just complicates things for them a little bit, since last season, Realmuto’s backups totaled 208 plate appearances, which was about half of Chirinos’ total. Either Chirinos would have to accept reduced playing time, or Realmuto, in Houston, would have to play more first base. Let’s say the Astros are less likely than they were yesterday to make the splash. I don’t think that’s controversial.

So the Marlins will stay busy on the phone, while remembering that the list of free-agent catchers includes Yasmani Grandal, Wilson Ramos, Jonathan Lucroy, and Martin Maldonado. Francisco Cervelli and Russell Martinare other trade candidates. Realmuto is possibly or probably the best catcher in the game, but trading is never as easy as you’d think.

 

Back to Chirinos and the Astros. Garrett Stubbs is in the upper minors, but at the big-league level now, the two catchers are Chirinos and Stassi. Chirinos is 34, and Stassi is 27, and last year Stassi finished with a 100 wRC+ of his own. On the other hand, over the final four months, Stassi managed a wRC+ of just 64, his power evaporating. On the other other hand, there’s the other side of the game. According to both Baseball Info Solutions and Baseball Prospectus, Stassi last year was one of the game’s best defensive catchers. According to the same sources, Chirinos last year was one of the game’s worst defensive catchers. Maybe some of that just reflects that Stassi caught a good pitching staff and Chirinos caught a bad one, but Stassi has a pretty clear edge behind the plate, even if the hitting is unpolished.

Something more fun for Chirinos and his new employer: Chirinos is a right-handed hitter, and, half the time, he’ll be hitting in Minute Maid Park. You know what looms in left field in Minute Maid Park. Over the past three seasons, more than 300 hitters have hit at least 500 batted balls. Here are the ten highest rates of pulled batted balls in the air:

 
Pulled Air Balls, 2016 – 2018
Player Batted Balls Pulled, Air Rate(%)
Brandon Moss 513 150 29.2%
Rhys Hoskins 538 149 27.7%
Mike Zunino 553 153 27.7%
Matt Carpenter 1161 319 27.5%
Robinson Chirinos 514 140 27.2%
Salvador Perez 1185 317 26.8%
Mike Napoli 633 169 26.7%
Joey Gallo 551 147 26.7%
Brian Dozier 1391 362 26.0%
Curtis Granderson 988 249 25.2%

It’s a small thing, but it’s something. Chirinos hits the ball in the air, and he likes to pull it. By doing that, he might now hit his way into some lucky home runs. That is, he might gain particular value while hitting in Houston, above and beyond how other righties might benefit. It’s one of those neat little statistical quirks. I don’t know if the Astros factored it into their decision, but Chirinos hits with an appropriate profile.

This wasn’t Tuesday’s big news. If anything, given that Chirinos isn’t Realmuto, Astros fans could be disappointed. But there’s still plenty of offseason to go. Plenty of significant moves to be discussed. And several months on down the line, perhaps Chirinos will win a ballgame by lifting a lazy fly over the left-field fence. Some would call it a fluke. Others would laugh at the notion.

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29 minutes ago, Mack Tripper said:

But why do we need to sign a catcher shitty enough to be willing to sign an affordable 1 year deal?  They have money to spend. I'd much rather have spent a bit more on Maldonado. 

You’d be paying more for a worse player, unless you value Maldonado’s defensive superiority that much more than Chirinos’s better bat. The overall numbers disagree in the past and so do the projections for this year.

I’d prefer they allocate that money to spend elsewhere. This seems like a smart, low cost move. I much prefer it to mortgaging the future for Realmuto. Unless this is literally the last move they make this offseason, I think all the angst is misplaced.

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Over several seasons, he's been one of the worst defensive catchers in baseball (around 25 runs worse than Stassi in 2018 under BP's FRAA metric), and he has an 90 wRC+ steamer projection for next season, which is decent for a catcher but nothing special.  I think there are reasonable grounds to question this acquisition, but we will see what other signings/trades are made.

Edited by Fozzz
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7 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Over several seasons, he's been one of the worst defensive catchers in baseball (around 25 runs worse than Stassi in 2018 under BP's FRAA metric), and he has an 90 wRC+ steamer projection for next season, which is decent for a catcher but nothing special.  I think there are reasonable grounds to question this acquisition, but we will see what other signings/trades are made.

I’m not jumping up and down with excitement over it or anything, but I think it’s a fine move, under the assumption that there’s more to come.

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I just read an article on Harper. 

 

Broke it down as this basically:

sign Harper for 10-350 leaving the Astros with roughly 35-40 mil left

sign Grandal/Ramos for 12-15

Trade Tucker package for ace (named Syndergaard) 

Sign another lower level starter (named Lance Lynn) 

 

lineup would be 

Springer CF

Altuve 2nd

Bregman 3rd

Harper LF

Correa SS

Grandal/Ramos C

White DH

Yuli 1st

Reddick RF

 

With a rotation of 

Verlander

Cole

Syndergaard

Lynn/ McHugh/ Morton/ James for last 2 spots 

 

Edited by BurntOrangeBlooded15
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49 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Eovaldi might be over-hyped, but our 3-5 in our rotation is pretty shaky at this point. Resigning Charlie has to be a priority, and we probably need to look at the trade market for at least one more SP. 

More like 4-5. McHugh is criminally underrated, he’ll slot back in without missing a beat.

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5 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Im pretty excited to see what the Young arms come can do with  that #5 spot. One of them will step up 

i am too, but we need a reliable starter who can throw anywhere from 150-200 quality innings over the duration of a season. 

offseason sucks

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As most of you know, I’m a huge Astros cheerleader but I’m a little worried . There have been big brain drain in the front office, scouting and analytics. I’m unclear on where Crane wants the payroll this year. Starting pitching, at this moment, looks to be going from a strength to a concern. Catching is a black hole. I welcome anyone who can talk me off the ledge.

 

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