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Early Voting 2018 thread of doom


Pancho

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4 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

Translate for the elderly. 

The poster that you responded to routinely posts negative things about Dems (and Jews) while pretending to be a Democrat himself who is very worried and disappointed.  He's been banned before.  It doesn't matter much in the context of the post you responded to, but just be aware that he's not an honest participant in any discussion. 

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7 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

The poster that you responded to routinely posts negative things about Dems (and Jews) while pretending to be a Democrat himself who is very worried and disappointed.  He's been banned before.  It doesn't matter much in the context of the post you responded to, but just be aware that he's not an honest participant in any discussion. 

lol you calling someone out for honesty 

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58 minutes ago, NowThis said:

ideally for the Blues is to have the Red counties have low turnout but seems turnout is big everywhere which isn't a good sign for Beto. 

 Big turn out everywhere helps Democrats for two reasons. First urban areas vote disproportionally less than rural areas. Second the same percentage increase in a rural area and urban area results and a lot more votes from the urban area. 

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47 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

 Big turn out everywhere helps Democrats for two reasons. First urban areas vote disproportionally less than rural areas. Second the same percentage increase in a rural area and urban area results and a lot more votes from the urban area. 

More turnout rarely helps Republicans. 

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1 hour ago, NowThis said:

ideally for the Blues is to have the Red counties have low turnout but seems turnout is big everywhere which isn't a good sign for Beto. 

The more important thing for the Blues is to tighten up their goaltending.  Jake Allen is near the bottom of the league in save percentage. 

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14 hours ago, Celery Man said:

I will be interested to see how Montgomery County breaks down.  Curious specifically how much The Woodlands swings away from 99.99% red.  Certainly will still be ruby red, but I know there are more than a handful of staunch conservatives in the community who are sick of what has happened to the republicans.

Wife and I did our part to keep The Woodlands red. I was pleasantly surprised by the enthusiasm on our side honestly because I’ve sensed apathy for a long time. 

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Just now, Chrispy said:

Wife and I did our part to keep The Woodlands red. I was pleasantly surprised by the enthusiasm on our side honestly because I’ve sensed apathy for a long time. 

It's an important election.  The party motivated by fear of others faces the prospect of the others having power.

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48 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

 Big turn out everywhere helps Democrats for two reasons. First urban areas vote disproportionally less than rural areas. Second the same percentage increase in a rural area and urban area results and a lot more votes from the urban area. 

Texas has 28 million people, only about half live in the big cities and a bunch of them are Rs. Suburbs, X burbs and small towns are redder as you go away from the cities. An even distribution of 4x turnout means the Rs stay, no?

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1 minute ago, NowThis said:

Texas has 28 million people, only about half live in the big cities and a bunch of them are Rs. Suburbs, X burbs and small towns are redder as you go away from the cities. An even distribution of 4x turnout means the Rs stay, no?

You are right if what you are describing is just scaling up the numbers we currently have, so of course that would stay the same.  

 

I was mainly pointing out that urban areas lag behind rural areas by about 15-20% in voting, so if every jurisdiction now voted at, say, 50%, it would be a huge D benefit.   The other way Ds get an advantage is if D voters are more likely to not vote in Texas, every increase in percentage voters would not be a simple scaling, but would more likely capture more D votes.  Both of which are true, neither of which we know will manifest themselves in this election.

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7 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

It's an important election.  The party motivated by fear of others faces the prospect of the others having power.

Well, fear is a great motivator. Hell, look at the post above yours, that lunatic is worried about a Fourth Reich. 

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3 minutes ago, NowThis said:

Texas has 28 million people, only about half live in the big cities and a bunch of them are Rs. Suburbs, X burbs and small towns are redder as you go away from the cities. An even distribution of 4x turnout means the Rs stay, no?

The early turnout is heavy for a midterm election.  It is still below a presidential election on a statewide basis.  With that in mind, I expect the electorate to look 70% like 2016 and 30% like 2014.  For example, Tennessee started early voting in person a week ago on 10/18.  As of Monday it was breaking 63% Republican to 30% Democrat.  In 2016 President Trump won TN 61-35.  In 2014 the GOP governor won 70-23.  So far 2018 is between those results but closer to 2016.

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26 minutes ago, Chrispy said:

Wife and I did our part to keep The Woodlands red. I was pleasantly surprised by the enthusiasm on our side honestly because I’ve sensed apathy for a long time. 

completely serious question: what is there to be excited about on the R side? I will hang up and listen.

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2 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Item #1 - owned libs

/end of list

To be fair, if you are rich, you get to stay rich for a bit longer.

Though hardly anyone is really rich in The Woodlands. The people worth a couple of tens and hundreds of millions live in the Museum District or something probably

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2 minutes ago, Jack Burton said:

The Woodlands is where Aggies live out their dreams of owning a Maroon truck, parking their boat in the driveway and being house poor. Their main source of entertainment is Applebee's

I'm hanging out in northern suburbs of Atlanta and it feels extremely red and Woodlands-y here. Which is surprising (or maybe shouldn't be) considering the inner city is super blue. All uber drivers could talk about in Midtown was Abrams and up here it's about Kemp and the debate results are completely like Texas in that they are exercises in complete bias confirmations. If you like Abrams, you say she won, if you like Kemp you say he won.

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4 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

Though hardly anyone is really rich in The Woodlands. The people worth a couple of tens and hundreds of millions live in the Museum District or something probably

The Woodlands is like any other Texas bedroom community.  It’s full of people who are convinced they’re rich because they earn a low six-figure salary, own a 3500 square foot builder home on 0.2 acres (on which they’re paying a 30-year mortgage), drive two mid-prices luxury cars (both leased), own a ski boat (financed with a 10-year note), and vacation at Sandals (still carrying the balance for that one on the credit cards).  

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Just now, BrickHorn said:

The Woodlands is like any other Texas bedroom community.  It’s full of people who are convinced they’re rich because they earn a low six-figure salary, own a 3500 square foot builder home on 0.2 acres (on which they’re paying a 30-year mortgage), drive two mid-prices luxury cars (both leased), own a ski boat (financed with a 10-year note), and vacation at Sandals (still carrying the balance for that one on the credit cards).  

SoggyFavoriteAlligatorgar-small.gif

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2 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

The Woodlands is like any other Texas bedroom community.  It’s full of people who are convinced they’re rich because they earn a low six-figure salary, own a 3500 square foot builder home on 0.2 acres (on which they’re paying a 30-year mortgage), drive two mid-prices luxury cars (both leased), own a ski boat (financed with a 10-year note), and vacation at Sandals (still carrying the balance for that one on the credit cards).  

Oh my gosh, I'm a Woodlands. Is there a recovery program or some place I can turn myself in? Do I have to relocate there? I'm only tangentially related to the O&G industry tho.

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10 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

I'm hanging out in northern suburbs of Atlanta and it feels extremely red and Woodlands-y here. Which is surprising (or maybe shouldn't be) considering the inner city is super blue. All uber drivers could talk about in Midtown was Abrams and up here it's about Kemp and the debate results are completely like Texas in that they are exercises in complete bias confirmations. If you like Abrams, you say she won, if you like Kemp you say he won.

Newsflash, big city suburbs, especially in Red states, are conservative.

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22 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

The people worth a couple of tens and hundreds of millions live in the Museum District or something probably

"or something probably"

Thank you for your vast and unparalleled knowledge of Houston, Texas.

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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

"or something probably"

Thank you for your vast and unparalleled knowledge of Houston, Texas.

sorry. you are right.

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Old money conservatives live in Kingwood.
New money conservatives live in The Woodlands.

Old money liberals live in West U, River Oaks, Bellaire/Meyerland and Southside Place.
New money liberals are taking over the Heights.

Everyone in Memorial just feels like The Bluths, tbh.

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Old money conservatives live in Kingwood.
New money conservatives live in The Woodlands.

Old money liberals live in West U, River Oaks, Bellaire/Meyerland and Southside Place.
New money liberals are taking over the Heights.

Kingwood isn't really wealthy, mid-upper midd class,  i know a few people there and have visited several times. Nice tall pine trees though. 

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8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Old money conservatives live in Kingwood.
New money conservatives live in The Woodlands.

Old money liberals live in West U, River Oaks, Bellaire/Meyerland and Southside Place.
New money liberals are taking over the Heights.

Everyone in Memorial just feels like The Bluths, tbh.

Old money conservatives live in Tanglewood, the Villages, and also River Oaks.

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Just voted at the Randall’s in RR. ~10m line to wait through on a rainy Wednesday morning. Crowd was about 40% whites >55, 40% whites under 55, with the balance a wide mix.

 

Thanks for the tip on rooting out independents and libertarians opposing republicans. Made sure I voted against the reds there.

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Is The Woodlands still like 95% white?  I lived there for a few years when I was younger, and the whiteness of The Woodlands really stood out to me when I lived in other suburbs of Houston with some diversity.  

lot more rich Mexicans now

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33 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Still over an hour on day 3 on a rainy Wednesday morning in south austin at both Randalls.  

Yesterday morning, I had a doctor's appointment and used that nifty Travis Co. early voting link showing wait times that someone had posted. Luckily when leaving, I checked. Those Randalls at Mopac/Wm. Cannon and Ben White/Manchaca were the only "stoplight red" locations showing up, so I ending up going to the Gardner Betts annex and it wasn't too bad (~30 minutes).

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Is The Woodlands still like 95% white?  I lived there for a few years when I was younger, and the whiteness of The Woodlands really stood out to me when I lived in other suburbs of Houston with some diversity.  


Judging by the open house I went to at my son’s school, I would say no. There was a mix of Asians, Hispanics, African Americans, and Indians (dot not Warrens).
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