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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

 

 

This and the couple of post from @bolverk above are the sort of things that causes bigger issues than most will recognize. I'm curious about the view numbers on those, but if they are going even minor viral, it's a bigger issue than Russia will ever admit. Part of war propaganda is now absolutely in the hands of influencers, for better or worse. For better, in this case for the record.

Edited by BurntEyes
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Posted
3 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

That's the sort of thing that causes bigger issues than most will recognize. I'm curious about the view numbers on that, but if they are going even minor viral, it's a bigger issue than Russia will ever admit. Part of war propaganda is now absolutely in the hands of influencers, for better or worse. For better, in this case for the record.

I've been hopeful in the past that something would get through to the Russian public. At some point, there will be that final straw, but I'm done with even trying to speculate nowadays.

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Posted

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4021443-mass-desertion-among-russian-paratroopers-in-zaporizhzhia-region-atesh.html

 

Quote

"Atesh agents within the 247th Air Assault Regiment, stationed in the occupied territory of the Zaporizhzhia region, report widespread unauthorized abandonment of positions (AWOL). This is particularly affecting one of the air assault battalions," the statement reads.

The reasons for desertion are described as obvious — forcibly mobilized Ukrainians from Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Crimea do not want to fight against their own country. Lawlessness, incompetent leadership, refusal to register official reports, intimidation, and constant frontline casualties only strengthen their desire to flee.

Read also: Partisans uncover reconnaissance drone production at Luhansk factory

Partisans note that soldiers are often listed as deserters even after being wounded, as they are "lost" in the paperwork following transfer to a hospital. Medical personnel typically do not specify the soldier's location, and officers attribute their absence to desertion.

As previously reported, nearly 50,000 armed Russian deserters are significantly worsening the criminal situation in the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories.

 

https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-tymchasovo-okupovani/3999012-tisaci-rosijskih-dezertiriv-peretvoruut-tot-ukraini-na-kriminalnu-zonu-cns.html

 

Quote
Almost 50,000 armed Russian deserters are rapidly worsening the criminal situation in the temporarily occupied Ukrainian lands.

According to Ukrinform, this was reported in Telegram by the Center for National Resistance.

"Due to the mass desertion of militants of the so-called "svo" security situation at the TOT of Ukraine is rapidly deteriorating. According to the Center for National Resistance, more than 49 000 Russian servicemen have left their seats in service since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. And this is the equivalent of several full-fledged divisions," the message reads.

It is noted that most of these criminals do not return to the Russian Federation, but hide on the TOT and become a real threat to the local population. Robbery, beatings, rape and murder, which the occupiers are trying to hide or attribute to civilians, have become commonplace.

The invaders bring rescuers from Russia to the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine

"International human rights organizations should pay attention to the complete degradation of security on the TOT of Ukraine," the Center for National Resistance calls.

As Ukrinform reported, the Russians have developed a plan for the resettlement of "SVO veterans" to the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine.

 

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Russian authorities arrested them for filming it.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/s/PQn7k9WHbg

Sadly not a suprise. Worse based on what I am being made aware of crossed with my admittedly limited knowledge of criminal oligarchs, females will end up in sex trade, males "former" soldiers potentially becoming a criminal issue for Ukrainian people. 

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Posted
10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Be curious if this is a trend of using women in combat.  NSFW

 

If they're sending women, what does that say about Russian "traditional values?"  

Lives of the youth - no matter which gender - are equally worthless.

 

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

50K armed deserters.    wowza

That is like Newt Knight and his crew on steroids and vodka.  

50k is equal to the number of all US military deserts during World War II in Europe.  But we had almost 2,000,000 servicemen in Europe at the time, and the geographic reach of where all the troops were stationed is vastly greater than the small amount of territory in an occupied Ukrainian area. 

Edited by Gatorubet
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Posted
29 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

50K armed deserters.    wowza

That is like Newt Knight and his crew on steroids and vodka.  

50k is equal to the number of all US military deserts during World War II in Europe.  But we had almost 2,000,000 servicemen in Europe at the time, and the geographic reach of where all the troops were stationed is vastly greater than the small amount of territory in an occupied Ukrainian area. 

 

I assume the 50k is a little inflated, but really any number above a 5k is bad news for them. 

Posted
1 hour ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

I assume the 50k is a little inflated, but really any number above a 5k is bad news for them. 


it be nice if there was a way to weaponize them and send them to go after Putin. But, for whatever reason, they prefer to stay in the Ukraine and steal and rape there. The deserters, it seems, are as worthless as the non-deserters.

Posted
3 hours ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

I assume the 50k is a little inflated, but really any number above a 5k is bad news for them. 

it also means that any Russian military patrols have to be on the lookout for bands of armed deserters who might light them up in an ambush if they venture into the wrong areas.  

in World War II, American deserters often wound up working for organized crime in the black market, using their weapons to hijack red ball express trucks for arms and ammunition medicine, etc.      

The people back home in World War II never heard about this, because it was not a good look.   I can only assume that they are doing this exact same thing in Russian controlled Ukrainian territories.  i’m pretty sure that brand new Russian soldiers sent to the meat grinder have very little desire to get in fire fights with experienced combat troops who have deserted with their weapons.

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Posted
it also means that any Russian military patrols have to be on the lookout for bands of armed deserters who might light them up in an ambush if they venture into the wrong areas.  
in World War II, American deserters often wound up working for organized crime in the black market, using their weapons to hijack red ball express trucks for arms and ammunition medicine, etc.      
The people back home in World War II never heard about this, because it was not a good look.   I can only assume that they are doing this exact same thing in Russian controlled Ukrainian territories.  i’m pretty sure that brand new Russian soldiers sent to the meat grinder have very little desire to get in fire fights with experienced combat troops who have deserted with their weapons.

Man if you’re telling me there’s 50k deserters essentially acting as Ukrainian partisans behind Russian lines, I’m here for that. Luhansk and Donetsk must be the goddam Wild West right about now.

*That 50k number seems pretty outlandish to me though.
Posted
9 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:


*That 50k number seems pretty outlandish to me though.

I totally agree. I was just taking that number from another source and rolling with it.  But even if 1/10 that, the problem still remains.

Putin has a problem.  One, he doesn’t have enough troops to go after a large amount of heavily armed deserters.  He needs them for his meat grinding.  Two, I’m sure Putin does not want his country to know  - or other soldiers or potential conscripts to know - that one can simply say “fuck it” and walk away from the front line with your weapon. Three, that the only thing keeping the deserters from arrest or death or being sent back to the frontline is the fact that they are heavily armed - with the best kit they could select/steal after their platoon mates were killed.  

This means that for their continued survival, they must make raids on the MOD ammunition logistics system to replenish ammo.  I refuse to believe it impossible that at least some of them are doing this.  

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Posted

5K could wreak havoc. Ukraine could offer them amnesty after the war, etc, and some could become a fifth column. I mean, they are dead men walking if they remain in Russia or surrender.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Gatorubet said:

I totally agree. I was just taking that number from another source and rolling with it.  But even if 1/10 that, the problem still remains.

Putin has a problem.  One, he doesn’t have enough troops to go after a large amount of heavily armed deserters.  He needs them for his meat grinding.  Two, I’m sure Putin does not want his country to know  - or other soldiers or potential conscripts to know - that one can simply say “fuck it” and walk away from the front line with your weapon. Three, that the only thing keeping the deserters from arrest or death or being sent back to the frontline is the fact that they are heavily armed - with the best kit they could select/steal after their platoon mates were killed.  

This means that for their continued survival, they must make raids on the MOD ammunition logistics system to replenish ammo.  I refuse to believe it impossible that at least some of them are doing this.  

I totally get that you and I are on the same page with regards to the number. 

Even if its one tenth the quoted, that's a lot of people who can make life harder on the frontline by stealing/criming behind the lines.  I don't want to see innocent Uke's in occupied territories get harmed any more than they already are, but man, more power to the deserters.  I know that's where I'd be if I were them.  Stay on the line and inevitably die, or have a shot at survival by being a modern day highwayman?  I'll take that second option.  

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Posted

Russia’s Oil Revenue Falls by Third on Weak Prices, Strong Ruble

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-05/russia-s-oil-revenue-falls-by-third-on-weak-prices-strong-ruble

Spoiler

Russia’s proceeds from oil in the state budget shrank by a third from a year ago in July following a drop in global crude prices and the appreciation of the nation’s currency.
Oil-related taxes declined by almost 33% to 710.4 billion rubles ($8.9 billion) last month, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Finance Ministry data published Tuesday. Combined oil and gas revenue totaled 787.3 billion rubles, down by 27%, the data showed.
The drop in proceeds from those industries — which account for roughly a third of Russia’s budget — will ramp up pressure on state finances, which are already burdened by massive spending on fighting in Ukraine.
With the Kremlin’s war well into its fourth year, Russia’s oil industry remains a key target for Western sanctions to limit the inflow of petrodollars into nation’s coffers. The European Union will lower its price cap on Russia crude and ban imports of petroleum products made from the country’s oil, while US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose penalties on Moscow’s energy customers.

On a month-to-month basis, oil revenue rose by almost 71% last month, according to Bloomberg calculations. The increase reflects the fact that one of Russia’s main oil taxes — a profit-based levy — is paid four times a year in March, April, July and October.
The ministry calculated Russia’s July oil revenue based on an average Urals price of $59.84 a barrel in June. While that’s the first monthly increase in the nation’s key export blend in five months — global crude prices soared at the time due to fighting in the Middle East — Urals barrels traded 14% lower than a year ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Benchmark prices have declined on an annual basis as Trump’s trade policy threatens to slow the global economy, while OPEC+ boosts production faster than expected.

A stronger currency also contributed to lower revenues as the appreciation means oil companies receive fewer rubles for every barrel they pump and sell. In June, the Russian currency traded at an average of 78.7183 rubles per US dollar, the strongest in more than two years, driven by interest rates remaining near a record.
As a result, the country’s oil producers received 4,711 rubles for each barrel sold compared with 6,127 rubles a year ago, Bloomberg calculations show.
Still, lower global crude and oil-product prices helped the government to reduce subsidies it pays to Russia’s refiners to partially compensate for the difference in fuel prices at home and abroad, a measure designed to boost gasoline and diesel supplies to the domestic market. In July, the budget transferred 59.9 billion rubles in subsidies, down by 58% from a year ago.

 

Posted
5K could wreak havoc. Ukraine could offer them amnesty after the war, etc, and some could become a fifth column. I mean, they are dead men walking if they remain in Russia or surrender.

Maybe they need to march on Moscow.
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Posted
2 hours ago, KYHorn said:

Something to monitor: 

 

Exclusive: Putin doubts potency of Trump's ultimatum to end the war -

Reuters Link

Spoiler

MOSCOW - Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to bow to a sanctions ultimatum expiring this Friday from U.S. President Donald Trump, and retains the goal of capturing four regions of Ukraine in their entirety, sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters.

Trump has threatened to hit Russia with new sanctions and impose 100% tariffs on countries that buy its oil - of which the biggest are China and India - unless Putin agrees to a ceasefire in Russia's war in Ukraine.

Putin's determination to keep going is prompted by his belief that Russia is winning and by scepticism that yet more U.S. sanctions will have much of an impact after successive waves of economic penalties during 3-1/2 years of war, according to three sources familiar with discussions in the Kremlin.

The Russian leader does not want to anger Trump, and he realises that he may be spurning a chance to improve relations with Washington and the West, but his war goals take precedence, two of the sources said.

Putin's goal is to fully capture the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, which Russia has claimed as its own, and then to talk about a peace agreement, one of the sources said

"If Putin were able to fully occupy those four regions which he has claimed for Russia he could claim that his war in Ukraine had reached his objectives," said James Rodgers, author of the forthcoming book "The Return of Russia".

The current talks process, in which Russian and Ukrainian negotiators have met three times since May, was an attempt by Moscow to convince Trump that Putin was not rejecting peace, the first source said, adding that the talks were devoid of real substance apart from discussions on humanitarian exchanges.

Russia says it is serious about agreeing a long-term peace in the negotiations but that the process is complicated because the two sides' stances are so far apart. Putin last week described the talks as positive.

Moscow’s stated demands include a full Ukrainian withdrawal from the four regions and acceptance by Kyiv of neutral status and limits on the size of its military – demands rejected by Ukraine.

In a sign that there may yet be an opportunity to strike a deal before the deadline, Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to visit Russia this week, following an escalation in rhetoric between Trump and Moscow over risks of nuclear war. On Monday, Russia said it was no longer bound by a moratorium on short- and medium-range nuclear missiles.

The Kremlin did not respond to a request for comment for this story. All the sources spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation.

Trump, who in the past has praised Putin and held out the prospect of lucrative business deals between their two countries, has lately expressed growing impatience with the Russian president. He has complained about what he called Putin's "bullshit" and described Russia's relentless bombing of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities as "disgusting".

Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko last week called on the world to respond with "maximum pressure" after the worst Russian air strike of the year killed 31 people in Kyiv, including five children, in what she called Russia's response to Trump's deadline.

"President Trump wants to stop the killing, which is why he is selling American-made weapons to NATO members and threatening Putin with biting tariffs and sanctions if he does not agree to a ceasefire," White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in response to a request for comment.

The first source said Putin was privately concerned about the recent deterioration of U.S. ties. Putin still retains the hope that Russia can again befriend America and trade with the West, and "he is worried" about Trump's irritation, this person said.

But with Moscow's forces advancing on the battlefield and Ukraine under heavy military pressure, Putin does not believe now is the time to end the war, the source said, adding that neither the Russian people nor the army would understand if he stops now.

"We know from his previous writings and statements that he sees himself as part of a strong tradition of standing up to the West and the rest of world to defend Russia's interests," he said.

The Kremlin leader values the relationship with Trump and does not want to anger him, however, "he simply has a top priority - Putin cannot afford to end the war just because Trump wants it," the second Russian source said.

A third person familiar with Kremlin thinking also said Russia wanted to take all four regions and did not see the logic in stopping at a time of battlefield gains during Russia's summer offensive.

Ukraine has suffered some of its biggest territorial losses of 2025 in the past three months, including 502 square kilometres in July, according to Black Bird Group, a Finland-based military analysis centre. In total, Russia has occupied around a fifth of Ukraine.

Russia's military General Staff has told Putin that the Ukrainian front will crumble in two or three months, the first person said.

However, Russia’s recent gains remain relatively minor in purely territorial terms, with only 5,000 square kilometres (1,930 square miles) of Ukraine taken since the start of last year, less than 1% of the country’s overall territory, according to a June report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

Ukrainian and Western military sources, acknowledge that Russia is making gains, but only gradually and with heavy casualties. Russian war bloggers say Moscow's forces have been bogged down during its current summer offensive in areas where the terrain and dense urban landscape favoured Ukraine, but assess that other areas should be faster to take.

Trump's sanctions threat was "painful and unpleasant," but not a catastrophe, the second source said. The third source said there was a feeling in Moscow that "there's not much more that they can do to us".

The source also said it was hard to imagine that China would stop buying Russian oil on instructions from Trump, and that his actions risked backfiring by driving oil prices higher.

As a consequence of previous rounds of sanctions, Russian oil and gas exporters have taken big hits to their revenues, and foreign direct investment in the country fell by 63% last year, according to U.N. trade data. Around $300 billion of central bank assets have been frozen in foreign jurisdictions.

But Russia's ability to wage war has been unimpeded, thanks in part to ammunition supplies from North Korea and imports from China of dual-use components that have sustained a massive rise in weapons production. The Kremlin has repeatedly said that Russia has some "immunity" to sanctions

Trump has acknowledged Russia's skill in skirting the measures. "They're wily characters and they're pretty good at avoiding sanctions, so we'll see what happens," he told reporters at the weekend, when asked what his response would be if Russia did not agree to a ceasefire.

The first Russian source noted that Putin, in pursuing the conflict, was turning his back on a U.S. offer made in March that Washington, in return for his agreement to a full ceasefire, would remove U.S. sanctions, recognise Russian possession of Crimea - annexed from Ukraine in 2014 - and acknowledge de facto Russian control of the territory captured by its forces since 2022.

The source called the offer a "fantastic chance," but said stopping a war was much more difficult than starting it

So a few thoughts. 

Assuming the first offer from Putin is true, giving up air in this conflict is the same as just conceding the whole fucking thing to Russia. 

Despite what Russia or more specifically Putin is claiming I think there is more concern than they will admit about further sanctions or tariffs. 

If Trump doesn't see this as just more bullshit from Putin, I don't know what to say. 

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Posted
8 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Exclusive: Putin doubts potency of Trump's ultimatum to end the war -

Reuters Link

  Reveal hidden contents

MOSCOW - Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to bow to a sanctions ultimatum expiring this Friday from U.S. President Donald Trump, and retains the goal of capturing four regions of Ukraine in their entirety, sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters.

Trump has threatened to hit Russia with new sanctions and impose 100% tariffs on countries that buy its oil - of which the biggest are China and India - unless Putin agrees to a ceasefire in Russia's war in Ukraine.

Putin's determination to keep going is prompted by his belief that Russia is winning and by scepticism that yet more U.S. sanctions will have much of an impact after successive waves of economic penalties during 3-1/2 years of war, according to three sources familiar with discussions in the Kremlin.

The Russian leader does not want to anger Trump, and he realises that he may be spurning a chance to improve relations with Washington and the West, but his war goals take precedence, two of the sources said.

Putin's goal is to fully capture the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, which Russia has claimed as its own, and then to talk about a peace agreement, one of the sources said

"If Putin were able to fully occupy those four regions which he has claimed for Russia he could claim that his war in Ukraine had reached his objectives," said James Rodgers, author of the forthcoming book "The Return of Russia".

The current talks process, in which Russian and Ukrainian negotiators have met three times since May, was an attempt by Moscow to convince Trump that Putin was not rejecting peace, the first source said, adding that the talks were devoid of real substance apart from discussions on humanitarian exchanges.

Russia says it is serious about agreeing a long-term peace in the negotiations but that the process is complicated because the two sides' stances are so far apart. Putin last week described the talks as positive.

Moscow’s stated demands include a full Ukrainian withdrawal from the four regions and acceptance by Kyiv of neutral status and limits on the size of its military – demands rejected by Ukraine.

In a sign that there may yet be an opportunity to strike a deal before the deadline, Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to visit Russia this week, following an escalation in rhetoric between Trump and Moscow over risks of nuclear war. On Monday, Russia said it was no longer bound by a moratorium on short- and medium-range nuclear missiles.

The Kremlin did not respond to a request for comment for this story. All the sources spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation.

Trump, who in the past has praised Putin and held out the prospect of lucrative business deals between their two countries, has lately expressed growing impatience with the Russian president. He has complained about what he called Putin's "bullshit" and described Russia's relentless bombing of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities as "disgusting".

Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko last week called on the world to respond with "maximum pressure" after the worst Russian air strike of the year killed 31 people in Kyiv, including five children, in what she called Russia's response to Trump's deadline.

"President Trump wants to stop the killing, which is why he is selling American-made weapons to NATO members and threatening Putin with biting tariffs and sanctions if he does not agree to a ceasefire," White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in response to a request for comment.

The first source said Putin was privately concerned about the recent deterioration of U.S. ties. Putin still retains the hope that Russia can again befriend America and trade with the West, and "he is worried" about Trump's irritation, this person said.

But with Moscow's forces advancing on the battlefield and Ukraine under heavy military pressure, Putin does not believe now is the time to end the war, the source said, adding that neither the Russian people nor the army would understand if he stops now.

"We know from his previous writings and statements that he sees himself as part of a strong tradition of standing up to the West and the rest of world to defend Russia's interests," he said.

The Kremlin leader values the relationship with Trump and does not want to anger him, however, "he simply has a top priority - Putin cannot afford to end the war just because Trump wants it," the second Russian source said.

A third person familiar with Kremlin thinking also said Russia wanted to take all four regions and did not see the logic in stopping at a time of battlefield gains during Russia's summer offensive.

Ukraine has suffered some of its biggest territorial losses of 2025 in the past three months, including 502 square kilometres in July, according to Black Bird Group, a Finland-based military analysis centre. In total, Russia has occupied around a fifth of Ukraine.

Russia's military General Staff has told Putin that the Ukrainian front will crumble in two or three months, the first person said.

However, Russia’s recent gains remain relatively minor in purely territorial terms, with only 5,000 square kilometres (1,930 square miles) of Ukraine taken since the start of last year, less than 1% of the country’s overall territory, according to a June report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

Ukrainian and Western military sources, acknowledge that Russia is making gains, but only gradually and with heavy casualties. Russian war bloggers say Moscow's forces have been bogged down during its current summer offensive in areas where the terrain and dense urban landscape favoured Ukraine, but assess that other areas should be faster to take.

Trump's sanctions threat was "painful and unpleasant," but not a catastrophe, the second source said. The third source said there was a feeling in Moscow that "there's not much more that they can do to us".

The source also said it was hard to imagine that China would stop buying Russian oil on instructions from Trump, and that his actions risked backfiring by driving oil prices higher.

As a consequence of previous rounds of sanctions, Russian oil and gas exporters have taken big hits to their revenues, and foreign direct investment in the country fell by 63% last year, according to U.N. trade data. Around $300 billion of central bank assets have been frozen in foreign jurisdictions.

But Russia's ability to wage war has been unimpeded, thanks in part to ammunition supplies from North Korea and imports from China of dual-use components that have sustained a massive rise in weapons production. The Kremlin has repeatedly said that Russia has some "immunity" to sanctions

Trump has acknowledged Russia's skill in skirting the measures. "They're wily characters and they're pretty good at avoiding sanctions, so we'll see what happens," he told reporters at the weekend, when asked what his response would be if Russia did not agree to a ceasefire.

The first Russian source noted that Putin, in pursuing the conflict, was turning his back on a U.S. offer made in March that Washington, in return for his agreement to a full ceasefire, would remove U.S. sanctions, recognise Russian possession of Crimea - annexed from Ukraine in 2014 - and acknowledge de facto Russian control of the territory captured by its forces since 2022.

The source called the offer a "fantastic chance," but said stopping a war was much more difficult than starting it

So a few thoughts. 

Assuming the first offer from Putin is true, giving up air in this conflict is the same as just conceding the whole fucking thing to Russia. 

Despite what Russia or more specifically Putin is claiming I think there is more concern than they will admit about further sanctions or tariffs. 

If Trump doesn't see this as just more bullshit from Putin, I don't know what to say. 

Agreed, and Trump doesn't know enough about modern warfare or how to look at damage reports to understand that while Russia's attacks on apartment buildings and schools and hospitals has a moral effect, the Ukrainian attacks on Russian bases, refineries, etc. is having a far more serious economic impact.  Russia wouldn't give up the air war if they were getting more out of it than Ukraine is.

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Posted
2 hours ago, BurntEyes said:

Exclusive: Putin doubts potency of Trump's ultimatum to end the war -

Reuters Link

  Reveal hidden contents

MOSCOW - Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to bow to a sanctions ultimatum expiring this Friday from U.S. President Donald Trump, and retains the goal of capturing four regions of Ukraine in their entirety, sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters.

Trump has threatened to hit Russia with new sanctions and impose 100% tariffs on countries that buy its oil - of which the biggest are China and India - unless Putin agrees to a ceasefire in Russia's war in Ukraine.

Putin's determination to keep going is prompted by his belief that Russia is winning and by scepticism that yet more U.S. sanctions will have much of an impact after successive waves of economic penalties during 3-1/2 years of war, according to three sources familiar with discussions in the Kremlin.

The Russian leader does not want to anger Trump, and he realises that he may be spurning a chance to improve relations with Washington and the West, but his war goals take precedence, two of the sources said.

Putin's goal is to fully capture the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, which Russia has claimed as its own, and then to talk about a peace agreement, one of the sources said

"If Putin were able to fully occupy those four regions which he has claimed for Russia he could claim that his war in Ukraine had reached his objectives," said James Rodgers, author of the forthcoming book "The Return of Russia".

The current talks process, in which Russian and Ukrainian negotiators have met three times since May, was an attempt by Moscow to convince Trump that Putin was not rejecting peace, the first source said, adding that the talks were devoid of real substance apart from discussions on humanitarian exchanges.

Russia says it is serious about agreeing a long-term peace in the negotiations but that the process is complicated because the two sides' stances are so far apart. Putin last week described the talks as positive.

Moscow’s stated demands include a full Ukrainian withdrawal from the four regions and acceptance by Kyiv of neutral status and limits on the size of its military – demands rejected by Ukraine.

In a sign that there may yet be an opportunity to strike a deal before the deadline, Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to visit Russia this week, following an escalation in rhetoric between Trump and Moscow over risks of nuclear war. On Monday, Russia said it was no longer bound by a moratorium on short- and medium-range nuclear missiles.

The Kremlin did not respond to a request for comment for this story. All the sources spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation.

Trump, who in the past has praised Putin and held out the prospect of lucrative business deals between their two countries, has lately expressed growing impatience with the Russian president. He has complained about what he called Putin's "bullshit" and described Russia's relentless bombing of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities as "disgusting".

Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko last week called on the world to respond with "maximum pressure" after the worst Russian air strike of the year killed 31 people in Kyiv, including five children, in what she called Russia's response to Trump's deadline.

"President Trump wants to stop the killing, which is why he is selling American-made weapons to NATO members and threatening Putin with biting tariffs and sanctions if he does not agree to a ceasefire," White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in response to a request for comment.

The first source said Putin was privately concerned about the recent deterioration of U.S. ties. Putin still retains the hope that Russia can again befriend America and trade with the West, and "he is worried" about Trump's irritation, this person said.

But with Moscow's forces advancing on the battlefield and Ukraine under heavy military pressure, Putin does not believe now is the time to end the war, the source said, adding that neither the Russian people nor the army would understand if he stops now.

"We know from his previous writings and statements that he sees himself as part of a strong tradition of standing up to the West and the rest of world to defend Russia's interests," he said.

The Kremlin leader values the relationship with Trump and does not want to anger him, however, "he simply has a top priority - Putin cannot afford to end the war just because Trump wants it," the second Russian source said.

A third person familiar with Kremlin thinking also said Russia wanted to take all four regions and did not see the logic in stopping at a time of battlefield gains during Russia's summer offensive.

Ukraine has suffered some of its biggest territorial losses of 2025 in the past three months, including 502 square kilometres in July, according to Black Bird Group, a Finland-based military analysis centre. In total, Russia has occupied around a fifth of Ukraine.

Russia's military General Staff has told Putin that the Ukrainian front will crumble in two or three months, the first person said.

However, Russia’s recent gains remain relatively minor in purely territorial terms, with only 5,000 square kilometres (1,930 square miles) of Ukraine taken since the start of last year, less than 1% of the country’s overall territory, according to a June report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

Ukrainian and Western military sources, acknowledge that Russia is making gains, but only gradually and with heavy casualties. Russian war bloggers say Moscow's forces have been bogged down during its current summer offensive in areas where the terrain and dense urban landscape favoured Ukraine, but assess that other areas should be faster to take.

Trump's sanctions threat was "painful and unpleasant," but not a catastrophe, the second source said. The third source said there was a feeling in Moscow that "there's not much more that they can do to us".

The source also said it was hard to imagine that China would stop buying Russian oil on instructions from Trump, and that his actions risked backfiring by driving oil prices higher.

As a consequence of previous rounds of sanctions, Russian oil and gas exporters have taken big hits to their revenues, and foreign direct investment in the country fell by 63% last year, according to U.N. trade data. Around $300 billion of central bank assets have been frozen in foreign jurisdictions.

But Russia's ability to wage war has been unimpeded, thanks in part to ammunition supplies from North Korea and imports from China of dual-use components that have sustained a massive rise in weapons production. The Kremlin has repeatedly said that Russia has some "immunity" to sanctions

Trump has acknowledged Russia's skill in skirting the measures. "They're wily characters and they're pretty good at avoiding sanctions, so we'll see what happens," he told reporters at the weekend, when asked what his response would be if Russia did not agree to a ceasefire.

The first Russian source noted that Putin, in pursuing the conflict, was turning his back on a U.S. offer made in March that Washington, in return for his agreement to a full ceasefire, would remove U.S. sanctions, recognise Russian possession of Crimea - annexed from Ukraine in 2014 - and acknowledge de facto Russian control of the territory captured by its forces since 2022.

The source called the offer a "fantastic chance," but said stopping a war was much more difficult than starting it

So a few thoughts. 

Assuming the first offer from Putin is true, giving up air in this conflict is the same as just conceding the whole fucking thing to Russia. 

Despite what Russia or more specifically Putin is claiming I think there is more concern than they will admit about further sanctions or tariffs. 

If Trump doesn't see this as just more bullshit from Putin, I don't know what to say. 

UA cannot let up now. Russia is now getting hit. Keep it up. Be like the UK During the Blitz. Yeah, it sucks, but is surrendering air control better? 

  • Hook 'Em 1

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